2012 04 30 Keep Calm and Carry On - Strategic Society · 2019. 10. 8. · An ESRC Research Centre...

Keep Calm and Carry On? Policy, Psychology and the Effects of ‘Economic War’ !!British Library!!Monday April 30th, 2012!

!!

Professor Mel Bartley, UCL Professor Peter Taylor-Gooby, University of Kent Professor Edgar Jones, King’s College London James Lloyd, The Strategic Society Centre

An ESRC Research Centre

1

…...bridging social and biological sciences

www.ucl.ac.uk/icls


Unemployment and health in the life course

•  Long history of concern with health impact of unemployment

•  In the 1930s, attempts were made to deny any effect

•  Charles Webster “Healthy or Hungry Thirties” found that it depended on region


Effect on health of recessions

•  Even in a deep recession, most working age men remain employed

•  20% unemployment rate is very high (this is what they have at present in Spain)

•  What happens to those who remain in work?


Working through a recession

•  Those who remain in work may become more anxious and insecure about their jobs

•  In order to keep working after redundancy, people tend to have to accept jobs with lower pay, less job security and often more work hazards

•  But prices often fall as well, so money buys more (e.g. at present mortgage interest is low)


Does recession influence health?

•  Not a clear question. Could mean: – Do recessions damage population health? – Does unemployment damage health of

individuals •  Mental health •  Physical health •  Life expectancy


Employment and unemployment rates, UK 2007-9

Working age employment rateJanuary 2007 to July 2009

72

73

73

74

74

75

75

76

Jan-Mar2007

May-Jul2007

Sep-Nov2007

Jan-Mar2008

May-Jul2008

Sep-Nov2008

Jan-Mar2009

May-Jul2009

Quarter

Rate (%)

Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey

Working age unemployment rateJanuary 2007 to July 2009

5

6

7

8

9

Jan-Mar2007

May-Jul2007

Sep-Nov2007

Jan-Mar2008

May-Jul2008

Sep-Nov2008

Jan-Mar2009

May-Jul2009

Quarter

Rate (%)


Trajectories of unemployment in present and previous recessions

from “Jobs Crisis”, John P martin, OECD Observer No 274, October 2009

2007---- 1973---- 1979---- 1990---- 2000----


Unemployment and economic inactivity: diverging trends 1980-2008

Men 16-64 1980 to 2008

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

%

Unemployment Inactivity

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/TSDdownload2.asp 23 Feb 2009


Changes in employment status and mental health

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0

0.1

0.2

0.3

Employed T1 Unemployed T1

Size

of e

ffect

Employed T2 Unemployed T2

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Better mental health

Summary of longitudinal studies on unemployment and mental health

Source: Paul & Moser J Voc Behavior 2009


Relationship between labour market status and GHQ-12 “caseness”. Men

Adjustments: age; Mental health last year; education; physical health; marital situation; employment status last year; housing tenure; region; macroeconomic conditions; financial situation; substance abuse;

Source: Ellen Flint unpublished PhD thesis 2012


Relationship between labour market status and GHQ-12 “caseness”. Women

Adjustments: age; Mental health last year; education; physical health; marital situation; employment status last year; housing tenure; region; macroeconomic conditions; financial situation; substance abuse;

11

Source: Ellen Flint unpublished PhD thesis 2012


Suicide and suspected suicide mortality in England and Wales 1971-2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1971 1981 1991 2001 2003 Dec-08

DSR/million

Men

Women


Comparison of mortality between employed and unemployed 1971-2001: Men aged 50-59

www.ucl.ac.uk/icls 13 Source: Akinwale et al JECH 2011


Comparison of mortality between employed and unemployed 1971-2001: women aged 50-59

www.ucl.ac.uk/icls 14


Is unemployment bad for health?

•  Mental health effects always accepted •  Mortality figures very controversial •  But have now been replicated 3 times •  Which is more than many studies of e.g.

drug effectiveness •  Has anyone costed the economic gains?

www.ucl.ac.uk/icls 15

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