2012 Elections and Public Opinion
Dan NatafDirector, Center for the Study of Local Issues
Anne Arundel Community Collegewww2.aacc.edu/csli
Center for the Study of Local Issues:Semi-annual survey• Conducted each March and October• Involves 70+/- students as telephone interviewers• Contents:
− Benchmark questions on the economy, most important problem, right/wrong direction, and demographics
− Variable questions on current policy choices and major events
Plan – focus on the election
• What are current trends− Most important problem facing residents− Right/wrong direction− Perceptions of the economy− Economic circumstances
• How are these trends related to choices for president and ballot/referenda items
• Where are we in the election nationally• Discussion!
Most Important Problem
'07 '08 ‘08 '09 ‘09 ‘10 ‘10 ‘11 ‘11 ‘12Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring ‘12 Fall
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
8
23
38
48
3336 36 35
48
3027
17 16
1210
12 1113
119
17 1716
12
9
5 5 5
24 4 4 3
19
1514
11
21
17
2119
13
2423
Economy Taxes – too high Growth EducationTraffic congestion Crime / drugs Unsure/no answer Other answer
Economy
Taxes
County: Right or Wrong Direction? Spring ‘99 to Fall ‘12
Sp '99
Fa '99
Sp '00
Fa '00
Sp '01
Fa '01
Sp '02
Fa '02
Sp '03
Fa '03
Sp '04
Fa '04
Sp '05
Fa '05
Sp '06
Fa '06
Sp '07
Fa '07
Sp '08
Fa '08
Sp '09
Fa '09
Sp '10
Fa '10
Sp '11
Fa '11
Sp '12
Fa '12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
5754
5855
6266
60 61 62
51
58 58
5357
5551 52 51 50
52
47
52 5249 50
4743
50
2327
25 24 23
15
26
2125
3431
24
2927 26
2927
33 32 3128 27 28 28 28
32
41
36
20 1917
20
1519
1418
1315
12
19 1816
1820 21
16 17 17
2521 20
23 22 22
1614
Right Wrong Unsure
Right/Wrong and Partisanship:% saying “Right”
Levels Overall Dem. Rep. Dem-Rep.
Unaff.
County 50 58 40 18 56State 36 55 16 39 35Nation 36 59 13 46 33Respondent 78 83 71 12 83
Obama Vote by Right/Wrong Direction: County, State and USA
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
County - Right, 16
County - Wrong, -32
State - Right, 61
State - Wrong, -49
USA - Right, 73
USA - Wrong, -56
Respondent- Right, 4
Respondent - Wrong, -22
Economic Conditions Excellent + Good: Fall ‘06 to Fall ‘12
‘06 ‘07 ‘07 ‘08 ‘08 ‘09 ‘09 ‘10 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘12Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall ‘11 Spring Fall-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
7571 71
69
55
4946
4844 45
49 4851
48
2730 31 32
3533
38
33
5
11 11 11 119
1316
County
State
USA
Obama Vote by Perceptions of the Economy - County, State, USA
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
County Excellent, 31
County Good, 4County Fair, -6
County Poor, -48
State Excellent, 50
State Good, 32
State Fair, -6
State Poor, -56
USA Excellent, 47
USA Good, 63
USA Fair, 32
USA Poor, -57
Cost of living indicators: S ‘08-F ‘12
S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '12 F '120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
47
58 59 59
6360
63
58
63 63
5659
55 55 56 56
63
59
66
59
40
32
21
17
2124
41
30
36
30
61
5053
4244 43
46
39 39
32
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
26
35
31
21
11 12 1315
10
1411
15
911
15
24 24
1921 20 21
1714
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1416
11
Hard to afford cost of taxes* Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of livingHard to afford cost of transportation Hard to afford cost of utilities such as electricity or gasReceived a salary increase or other increase in income recently Unable to find affordable housingFacing the possibility of unemployment Found a new or better job recently
Taxes
Inflation
Utilities Cost
Transport Cost
Unemployment
Housing Cost
Found job
Salary Increase
Other economic indicators
S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '12 F '120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
7175
70
5660
52
60
44
38
1115
24 24
1921 20 21
1714
0 0
51
46 4744
4751
45
3835
30 2933 32
34 3532 32
27
64
68 7 7
9 8 84
Loss Stocks, pensions
Delay major purchase
Health care unavailable
Unemployment
Home foreclosure
Obama Vote by Economic Circumstances – F ‘12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Wages or salaries not rising, -7
Received a salary increase , 6
Unemployment, 8
Found job, 2
Losses stocks/re-tirement, -20
Foreclosure, -7
Affordable housing, -5
Transportation cost, -25
Utilities cost, -19
Purchase delay, -13
Health care in-surance, -10
Hi Taxes, -28
Consumer Confidence: F ‘11 – F ‘12
Obama Vote and Consumer confidence
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Excellent, 29
Good, 44Fair, 53
Somewhat poor, 28
Very Poor, -41
Obama Vote by Candidate Attributes
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Congress -work with, -5 (87%)
Right ideas - economy, -4,
(89%)
Defend America, -11, (85%)
Background appeal-ing, 1 (34%)
Relates to people like me, 15 (58%)
Other candidate - dislike, 8 (29%)
VP choice, -4(48%)
Obama Vote by Demographics
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Lib, 84
13
-67
64
-76
-9 -13
2
-48
2 1
36
50
-20-21
-8
8
-8 -15
90
2922
-29-21
60
-13
-55
13
21
-13
1911
-12
6
22
13
-7 -10-4
71+, -21
Presidential Job Approval
2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
35
28
24
53
47 47
42
47
37
4244
3230
25
61
54
47
43
47
40
45
50
CSLI Gallup
Most important issue by candidate Overall Obama Romney Undecided
Economy 49 35 59 68
Trust, honesty, character 7 9 6 8
Foreign affairs, national security, defense 7 5 9 0
Healthcare 6 9 4 4
Women’s issues (abortion, contraception, equal rights) 5 9 3 4
Dislike of other candidate 5 6 5 0Other answers 20 28 14 16Total 99 101 101 100
Ballot Items: Referenda
Same Sex Marriage by Demographics
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Lib, 65
20
-48
30
-38
20
HS Dip, -25
-7-10
1218
-12
-3
-15
1411
8
26
6
-24
47
31
-15-21
40
-7
-22
35
-3
40
-8
-17
22 21
51
-3-5-6
-24
Dream Act by Demographic Variables
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Lib, 43
Mod, -4
Cons, -56
Dem, 17
Rep, -53
-16
-39
-27-31
-6
PGW, 11
-34
-14 -16-18
-9-15 -15
Defense, -48
Student, 17
-47
Not LabMkt, 11
-19
-2
NoRel, 36
-26
WhiteEvang, -52
-26
Jewish, 30
-23
-35
Spiritual, 12
-21
-14
Sep/Div, 5
-2
-21
-7
County Vote for President
Overall Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated
Barack Obama42 77 8 34
Mitt Romney 47 14 84 49Undecided 7 5 8 8Someone else 1 2 0 2Wouldn’t vote 0 0 0 2No answer 2 2 1 6Total 99 100 101 101
Washington Post/ABC Daily Tracking Poll
Map of Battleground States
Nev.
Colo.
Iowa
Wis
Ohio
Va.
NH
Fl.
NC
Vote EstimatesObama Romney
ColoradoVotamatic votamatic.org/ 51 49Silver fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/ 50.1 48.9RCP www.realclearpolitics.com/ 48.6 47.7
49.9 48.5FloridaVotamatic 50 50Silver 49.4 50.1RCP 47.9 49.1
49.1 49.7IowaVotamatic 51.7 48.3Silver 51 48RCP 48.2 46.2
50.3 47.5NevadaVotamatic 52 48Silver 51.3 47.8RCP 50 47.3
51.1 47.7New HampshireVotamatic 51.7 48.3Silver 51 48.2RCP 48.8 47.5
50.5 48
Obama RomneyNorth CarolinaVotamatic 49 51Silver 48.4 51RCP 46 49.8
47.8 50.6OhioVotamatic 51.6 48.4Silver 50.7 48.1RCP 48.9 46.6
50.4 47.7VirginiaVotamatic 51 49Silver 50.1 49.2RCP 47.9 47.4
49.7 48.5WisconsinVotamatic 52.4 47.6Silver 51.6 47.6RCP 50 45
51.3 46.7Total Votamatic none NoneSilver 50.5 48.6RCP 47.4 47.3
49 48Electoral CollegeVotamatic 332 206Silver 300 237RCP 290 248
307 230