2012 Gas/Electric Partnership Conference · 2012-02-16 · •Macro Market Overview ... Oil Price /...

Gas Electric Partnership Conference Jan. 2012 1© 2012 Quest Offshore Resources, Inc.

February 2012

2012 Gas/Electric Partnership ConferenceGlobal Offshore Oil and Gas Outlook


Quest Offshore

Quest Offshore is a 13 year old company, founded with the purchase of the 30 year old Subsea Database, the world’s most comprehensive database of subsea information.

Quest provide market expertise, strategic analysis and consultancy services to the offshore oil and gas markets globally.

Quest possesses a dedicated team of sector specialists that focus on qualitative and quantitative data to identify global market opportunities for deepwater technologies.

Quest’s Client’s include oil and gas operators, participants in the oil and gas supply chain, financial institutions and oil and gas trade associations.


Table of Contents

•Macro Market Overview•Macro Drivers•Why Offshore?

•Regional Outlooks•The Big Issues•What is the Outlook?

•Key Projects •Market Indicators

•Worldwide Outlook


Macro Issues:

What is Driving the Offshore Oil and Gas Market?


Oil Price / Commodity OverviewBrent Spot Price , Natural Gas Wellhead Price (Source: EIA)

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

2011

US$

per th

ousand

cub

ic feet

2011

US$

per Barrel

Oil (2011 $) Gas (2011 $)


Positive Signs

The U.S. Economy is Growing

Developing Economies Continue to Grow

Are there Risks?

Recoveries Can Falter

What about Europe? What could be the fallout?

Is the Growth Sustainable? Will consumption continue to rise at the same rate?


The Offshore Industry is (Mostly) a (Brent) Oil Play

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Number of W

ells

Production Start Year

Oil Gas

High Oil Prices Mean Most Projects are Economical ($60‐75)


U.S. Gas Prices Have Left Offshore U.S. Gas Projects on Life Support

Offshore Gas Can’t Compete with Onshore Shale

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Number of W

ells

Production Start Year

Oil Gas


Offshore LNG is the Exception that Proves the Rule

Africa/Medit., $56.0

Asia Pacific, $221.7

North Sea Arctic, $20.0

South America, $4.5

Under Construction and Planned Projects Total Estimated Spending $302 Bn.


Why?

Growing Demand From Developing Countries China, India, Etc.

Japanese Crude Cocktail Pricing in Asia

Long Term Contracts

Developed Economies with Energy InsecurityJapan, Korea, Western Europe

Small Countries Fuel Switching Due to High Oil Prices

LNG makes Gas A Fungible Commodity


Why Offshore?


Where are the Reserves?Top 20 Countries by Proven Reserves 1.4 Trillion Barrels

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Prov

en Reserves B

n. Barrels

Source: CIA World Factbook, Quest Offshore

Accessible, 205

Semi‐Accessible,

255Inaccessible , 935


Non OPEC Production

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Million Barrel Per Day

Year


Major Oil Companies Need Major Projects to Move the NeedleAverage Daily Production 2011

0.0 M

0.5 M

1.0 M

1.5 M

2.0 M

2.5 M

3.0 M

3.5 M

4.0 M

4.5 M

5.0 M

Total Chevron Royal Dutch Shell BP Exxon ConocoPhillips

Boe/d


Don’t Forget the NationalsNot Everyone is Saudi Aramco

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Number of W

ells

Onstream Year


North America


The Big Issues

Low Gas Prices

Big Oil Projects (The Lower Tertiary)

Regulation?

Don’t Believe Everything they Tell You.

But Operators Seem to be Positive? 35 Rigs in the Gulf?

What about the Independents?Is it the Gas? What about the Rigs? Are there Opportunities?


So What is the Outlook?


What Type of Projects are going ahead?

Oil Focused

Major Operators

Deepwater

Large Standalones

Lower Tertiary – Subsea Pumping


Example 1‐ Anadarko Lucius

2164 Meters Water Depth

Keathley Canyon‐ Lower Tertiary

Spar Platform

Initial 5 Wells

586 KM of Oil and Gas Export Lines

Regional Hub

Under Construction ‐ Late 2014 Startup

80,000 BOPD

Photo Courtesy: Mustang Engineering


Example 2 – Chevron Jack St. Malo


Walker Ridge ‐ Lower Tertiary

Semi‐Submerisble Platform

Initial 12 Wells

Subsea Pumping

542 KM of Oil and Gas Export Lines

Under Construction ‐Mid 2014 Startup

200,000 BOPD

Photo Courtesy: Chevron


The Tree Market

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

# of Sub

sea Tree

s

Award Year

NAM Tree Orders (Awarded) NAM Tree Orders (Base) NAM Tree Orders (Forecased Mean)


The Pipeline Market


The Floating Production Market

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Num

ber o

f FPS

Uni

ts

Hull Award Year

FPSO FPS-Semi Spar TLP


U.S. Deepwater Capital Expenditures

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Millions of D

ollars

YearG&G Drilling Facilities SURF


Europe


The Big Issues

Is the North Sea U.K. Set to Be Regulated Out of Existence?

“Marginal Fields”

The West of Shetlands

The Barents (Shtokman vs. Subsea Factories)

Statoil, Shell and the Fast Track Subsea Tieback

Russian Gas Supply Issues and Nuclear Power





UK Oil Fields

The Barents and West of Shetlands

Fast Track Subsea Tiebacks

Brownfield (Subsea Processing)

Infill wells, and the Resilience of the NSEA Market


Example 1 ‐ Dana Western Isles


Shetland Islands

New build FPSO

Initial 9 Wells

Partially Under Construction –FPS held up by pricing?

45,000 BOPD

Photo Courtesy: West of Shetlands Tourist Board


Example 2 – Shtokman – Gazprom, Total, Statoil


Russian Barents Sea

Arctic gas to onshore LNG

Multiple FPSOs

Initial 16 Wells

1,000 KM Multiphase Export Line

3.8 TCF Reserves

Delayed again?

Photo Courtesy: Shtokman A.G.


Example 3 ‐ Statoil and Shell Subsea Tiebacks

Shell SWEEP Developments

Statoil Fast Tracks

Pan Pandora, Vigdis, Vile, Visund Nord

Production to existing facilities

Fast track developments

Photo Courtesy: FMC Technologies


Example 4 ‐ Statoil Gas Compression

Asgard, Gulfaks , Ormen Lange

Cost Saving Measure

From the topsides to the seafloor

Brownfield

Unproven technology?

Photo Courtesy: Aker Solutions


Example 5 – Johan Sverdrup (Aldous & Avaldsnes)


Norwegian Continental Shelf

1.7 to 3.3 Billion Barrels

Unlocked with new seismic

Subsea Factory?

Photo Courtesy: Statoil


The Tree Market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

# of Sub

sea Tree

s

Award Year

NSEA Tree Orders (Awarded) NSEA Tree Orders (Base) NSEA Tree Orders (Forecasted Mean)


The Pipeline Market


The FPS Market

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Nu

mb

er o

f FP

S U

nit

s

Hull Award YearFPSO FPS-Semi


NSEA Deepwater Capital Expenditures

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Millions of D

ollars



Africa and The Med


The Big Issues

Grouping Together Totally Different Markets

West Africa – Big Projects, Political and “Other” RisksOil, Can We Flare the Gas Please?Angola, Nigeria and the Transform Margin

East Africa – New Areas, LNG and Lots of Opportunity

The Easter Mediterranean, Cyprus, Israel, Egypt and LNG





West Africa – Angola and NigeriaBig Projects, Political Risk and Local Content

The Transform MarginCan they keep up the speed?

The Eastern MediterraneanLots of Opportunity, Lots of Questions, Few Answers

East AfricaUnknown Quantity


Example 1 – Total Egina


Nigeria

New build FPSO

Initial 48 Wells

200,000 BPD

Awards held up?

Photo Courtesy: Exxonmobil


Example 2 – Tullow Jubille


Ghana – First Deepwater Development

3.5 years from discovery to production

35 Wells in production and on order

120,000 BPD

Photo Courtesy: Tullow Oil


Example 3 ‐ Leviathan, Aphrodite, Eastern Med LNG

~1500 Meters Water Depth

15+ TCF of disocveries

Needs LNG to be commercial

Onshore or Offshore LNG

5+ MTPA

2017 Startup?


The Tree Market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

# of Sub

sea Tree

s

Award Year

AFM Tree Orders (Awarded) AFM Tree Orders (Base) AFM Tree Orders (Forecasted Mean)


The Pipeline Market


The FPS Market

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Nu

mb

er o

f FP

S U

nit

s

Hull Award YearFPSO FLNG TLP


Africa Deepwater Capital Expenditures

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Millions of D

ollars



Asia‐ South East Asia and Australia


The Big Issues

South East Asia and ChinaEmerging Provinces, Emerging OpportunitiesChina, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Burma, etc

India and The Middle EastAnything there?

AustraliaLNG, LNG, and More LNG but Can Cost be Controlled?





South East Asia and ChinaNascent Industry, Look Long Term

India and the Middle EastLots of uncertainty, the Middle East has to run out of easy oil sometime?

AustraliaLNG Projects floating and otherwise. Can operators control costs?


Example 1 – Shell Prelude


First FLNG under construction

$3.5 billion FLNG, ~$10 billion total cost

260,000 MT of steel

12 initial wells

3.6 MTPA LNG production

Photo Courtesy: Royal Dutch Shell


Example 2 – Inpex Ichthys


$34 billion total cost

Largest Semi‐submersible PFNewbuild FPSO

22 initial wells

890 KM gas export line to onshore LNG

8.4 MTPA LNG production

80k BPD Condenstate1.6 MTPA LPG

Photo Courtesy: Inpex


Example 3 – Chevron Greater Gorgon


$43 billion total cost

Subsea to beach (Onshore LNG)

20 initial wells, phased development

65 KM to onshore LNG

15 MTPA LNG production


The Tree Market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

# of Sub

sea Tree

s

Award Year

ASP Tree Orders (Awarded) ASP Tree Orders (Base) ASP Tree Orders (Forecasted Mean)


The Pipeline Market


The FPS Market

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Nu

mb

er o

f FP

S U

nit

s

Hull Award Year

FPSO FPS-Semi Spar FLNG TLP


Asia Pacific Capital Expenditures

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Millions of D

ollars



South America‐ I.E. Brazil


The Big Issues

BrazilThe Pre‐Salt, the Traditional. Can Petrobras Pull it off?

What about the other Operators? OGX and the Majors

Other AreasFrench Guiana, The Falklands, Columbia, Anything Else?





Petrobras Pre‐SaltThe Plan and The Reality

Petrobras TraditionalWill it be a Priority?

Brazil OtherOGX and the Majors

Other AreasFrench Guiana, Columbia, will anything actually happen?


Example 1 – Petrobras Lula (Tupi)


10+ Phases

~8 Billion barrels recoverable reserves

EWT Underway, 150k BPD Pilot P/C

Hundreds of wells?10k+ BPD Production

Massive gas export infrastructureFLNG ordered

Photo Courtesy: MODEC


Example 2 – Petrobras Roncador

1800Meters Water Depth

7+ Phases

~3 Billion barrels in place

5 FPS, FPSO and Semi3 Operating, 2 under construction

100+ Wells, more to be installed

460k barrels per day current production

Photo Courtesy: Royal Dutch Shell


The Tree Market

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

# of Sub

sea Tree

s

Award Year

SAM Tree Orders (Awarded) SAM Tree Orders (Forecasted Mean) SAM Tree Orders (Base)


The Pipeline Market


The FPS Market

0

5

10

15

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Nu

mb

er o

f FP

S U

nit

s

Hull Award Year

FPSO FPS-Semi FLNG TLP


South America Capital Expenditures

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Millions of D

ollars



Worldwide Outlook


The Tree Market

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

# of Sub

sea Tree

s

Award Year

Tree Orders (Mean) Tree Orders (Base)


The Pipeline Market


The FPS Market

05

1015202530354045

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Num

ber o

f FPS

Uni

ts

Hull Award YearAwarded Unawarded Base Case


Worldwide Deepwater Capital Expenditures

$0

$25,000

$50,000

$75,000

$100,000

$125,000

$150,000

$175,000

$200,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Millions of D

ollars



THANK YOU!

Sean ShaferManager of ConsultingSenior Market Analyst

[email protected]+1 281 491 5900

Date post:	03-Jul-2020
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	3 times
Download:	0 times

2012 Gas/Electric Partnership Conference · 2012-02-16 · •Macro Market Overview ... Oil Price /...

Documents