+ All Categories
Home > Documents > DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan...

DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan...

Date post: 25-Sep-2020
Category:
Upload: others
View: 1 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
32
DOF Capital Markets Day 2012 31 May 2012 Petter Dragesund Corporate Finance [email protected]
Transcript
Page 1: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

DOF Capital Markets Day 2012

31 May 2012

Petter Dragesund Corporate Finance

[email protected]

Page 2: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

2

Big is not necessarily beautiful, Companies receive the valuation they deserve

Exxon

BP

Farstad

NOK 100 invested in Farstad has grown 37 times

BP & Exxon have grown 7 times

NOK (indexed and dividend adjusted)

Page 3: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

Supply companies have outperformed the general index… NOK 100 invested in the OSEBX in the year 2000 would give you approx. NOK 200 now… vs. NOK 450 in DOF

3

NOK (indexed and dividend adjusted)

OSEBX (~200 NOK)

DOF (~450 NOK)

FAR

SOFF

Page 4: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

Norwegian companies outperformed «dividend oriented» US peers Norwegian supply vessel companies pay less dividends… but total returns are better (that said, dividends are a compensation for low liquidity in shares and a tangible proof of earnings)

4

NOK (indexed and dividend adjusted)

TDW & GLF (~80-150 NOK)

DOF (~450 NOK)

FAR

Page 5: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

Profitability and pricing

The supply/OSV companies have delivered above average returns over the last 20 years

The current pricing reflects earnings below historical average, and significantly below rig companies compared to historical returns.

P/B at 0.81

Strong fundamentals for the industry should be reflected going forward

A return to historical P/B 1.2 will give an average uplift in shareprices for the industry of 50%

Even at bookvalue the shares are still trading well below net asset values

5

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

(5.0)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

Ave

rag

e

P/B

Median RoE P/B

RoE %

Oslo listed supply companies

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

(30.0)

(20.0)

(10.0)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0P/B

Median RoE P/B

RoE %

Oslo listed rig companies

Page 6: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

6

High-end AHTS Market

Few players, low order book, high returns

Page 7: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011

AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp

No. vessels

7

High-end AHTS is a proven growth market

Source: Pareto

High-end AHTS (>15k bhp) term demand

20%+ CAGR

11% CAGR

13% CAGR

Page 8: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

8

Rig count not the major driver

Source: Pareto

High-end AHTS (>15k bhp) term demand and no. rigs working (excl. UDW)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0

200

400

600

800

Jan 01 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 11AHTS > 15,000bhp Rigs working (excl. UDW)

No. rigs working No. HE AHTS working

Page 9: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

9

Remoteness and harsh environment drives AHTS demand…

Source: Pareto

0

0.7

1.752 2

2.9

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Deepwaterrig @ 500

feet (outsideNorway)

North Sea(moored)

Iceberg areas(DP rig)

Deepwaterrig @ 1,500

feet (outsideNorway)

OutsideNorth Sea(moored)

Iceberg areas(moored)

AHTS > 15,000bhp annual need per rig

Deeper drilling

More remote drilling

Page 10: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

10

Illustrated by an internationalisation of the fleet

Source: Pareto

Fleet development: NW Europe vs. rest of world

30 26 31 33 33 3242 41 43 47

55 53

30 3348

56 6271 71

8799

120 127

181

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

NW Europe Rest of World

AHTS > 15,000bhp (operating + spot)

Page 11: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

11

High-end AHTS market remains dominated by Norwegian players

Source: Pareto

16

10

8 8

65

4 4

2 2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Mae

rsk

DO

F

Fars

tad

Sie

m

Sols

tad

Edis

on

Tid

ewat

er

Oly

mp

ic

Bo

urb

on

Hav

ila

AHTS > 20,000bhp

Page 12: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

12

2016e: Demand up 50-100% shortage of 15-50 vessels

Source: Pareto

AHTS > 20k bhp demand analysis AHTS > 20k bhp supply

922 6

79

60

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Total supplyYE'14e

Unlikely order Order book Excessavailability

Currentdemand

Demand AHTS > 20k (no. vessels)

35.551.3

67.1

21

60

95.5

111.3

127.1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2005 Current 2016 low 2016 base 2016 high

Base demand Demand growth

Demand AHTS > 20k (no. vessels)

Page 13: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

13

High-end Subsea Market

Strong growth, low order book

Page 14: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

14

The growth in the ultra-deepwater rig fleet indicates further growth in (deepwater) subsea activity…

Source: Pareto Research, ODS-Petrodata

Despite rapid growth in recent years, the UDW fleet is set to increase more than 60% over the next few years

Exploration efforts continue to increase, while development drilling is also increasing demand

After almost no new awards in 2009, 2010 saw a rebound in FPSo projects

These will be coming onstream over the next few years and more are on the way

… and FPSO’s are increasing in number once again WW UDW fleet is increasing rapidly…

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012e

2014e

2016e

Fleet development FPSOs

Idle Units re-employed

Producing FPSOs

Demand Base Case

Demand High Case

Demand Low CaseFPSO Supply/Demand

1824 25 25 25 28 28 29

36

56

81

110124

148157

164

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012E 2015E

No. UDW units

Page 15: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

15

…compared to the growth in subsea vessels, for which there seems to be a shortage underway

UDW fleet growth outpacing subsea vessel growth despite clear link

Funding commodity UDW rigs easier than subsea vessels

Shortage of high-end subsea assets evolving

DW subsea trees vs. UDW and Subsea fleet

Source: Quest; Technip; Pareto

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

e

20

12

e

20

13

e

20

14

e

20

15

e

DW Subsea tree awards#, high-end subsea vessels & UDW rigs

4,000ft+ trees (lhs) UDW fleet (rhs) >120m Subsea vessels (rhs)

Page 16: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

Skandi Acergy

North Ocean 102

Normand Oceanic

Skandi Niteroi

North Sea Giant

Skandi Santos

Normand Installer

Normand Seven

Far Samson

Normand Pacific

Cecon III (NB)

Skandi Vitoria

Skandi Seven

CSV Southern Ocean

SIOFF NB#2

BOA Deep C

Cecon II (NB)

SIOFF NB#1

Normand Cutter

Skandi Bergen (NB)

Grand Canyon

Cecon I (NB)

Skandi Constructor

Contract/under construction Option

16

High-end North Sea subsea tonnage – limited availability next few years

Source: Pareto

North Sea spec Subsea vessels

Likely for Petrobras

Extremely likely to be extended with SUBC

Owned 50/50 with SBMO

Owned 50/50 with SUBC

Likely for Petrobras

Very likely extension with McDermott

Looking at the most high-end subsea vessels, longer than 120 meters and with North Sea capabiltiies, there are only a handful available over the next coming years

Coupled with the expected growth in demand coming from new rigs and recent subsea contract awards, early available vessels such as Skandi Bergen and Skandi Seven are extremely likely to get employment

Some uncertainty regarding Cecon deliveries

Page 17: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

17

High-end PSV market

Strong growth, stable earnings, large order book

Page 18: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011

No. vessels

18

A proven growth market

Source: Pareto

High-end PSV (>800m2) term demand

13% CAGR

Page 19: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

19

Demand indicators booming

Source: Pareto

FPSO fleet development

E&P spending (general offshore activity indicator)

Floater fleet development

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e

USD/bbl

Upside Nominal spending growth (lhs) Average Brent (rhs)

Y/Y change

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12e

20

14e

20

16e

20

18e

Fleet development FPSOs

Idle Units re-employed

Producing FPSOs

Demand Base Case

Demand High Case

Demand Low CaseFPSO Supply/Demand

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Midwater Deepwater UDW

No. rigs

Subsea tree awards

245

360

276232

364438 462 452 434

319373 350

618687

744

826

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012E 2014E

No. trees

Main driver

Page 20: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

20

Attractive financing and low barriers to entry, have led to a boom

Source: Pareto *Delivery adjusted to reflect slippage (capacity assumed at peak rate).

PSV fleet development* High-end PSV ordering activity

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

123412341234123412341234123412341234123412341234

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011PSV > 1000m2 PSV 800 < 1000m2

No. vessels

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

E

20

14

E

No. vessels Fleet growth

Page 21: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

21

Full utilization, but available low-end vessels cap upside

Source: Pareto

Low-end PSV utilization High-end PSV utilization

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011Idle/spot/yard Operating Utilization

PSV > 3,500dwt Utilization

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011Idle/spot/yard Operating Utilization

PSV < 3,500dwt Utilization

Page 22: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

22

Norwegian players less dominant

Source: Pareto

72

24 23 2117 16 15 12 12 12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

PSV > 800m2

Page 23: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

23

Norwegian supply companies in 2012 and beyond

Continue to outperform

Page 24: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

The fleets have developed

Status in the year 2000

24

Status early year 2012

1,700 vessels worldwide

~243 vessels in the North Sea (whereof approx. 130 on term contracts)

154 PSVs (>2’ dwt) + 23 newbuilds

Newbuilds: 9x in the US + 11x in the North Sea region + 3x in Brazil

157 AHTS (>10’ BHP) + 11 newbuilds

Newbuilds: 6x in the North Sea region + 4x in China + 1x in Arabia

2,700 vessels worldwide

~266 vessels in the North Sea (whereof approx. 125 on term contracts)

692 PSVs (>2’ dwt) + 255 newbuilds

Newbuilds: 55x in China + 52 in US + 44x in Norway + 13 in India + 33x in Brazil + 6x Singapore + 7x Malaysia + 10x Japan, + ….

469 AHTS (>10’ BHP) + 78 newbuilds

11x China + 4x USA + 2x Norway + 15x India + 4x Brazil + 15x Singapore, + …..

Massiv fleet growth since 2000 of about 12% p.a. globally

The growth is global – vessels will be built globally – specialization is key

Internationalisation

is increasing

competition in

lower end

segments

Page 25: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

25

Fleet complexity has increased

Source: Farstad presentation at Pareto’s Offshore Conference 2000, DOF April 2012 Presentation

High-end in 2000 High-end in 2012

Page 26: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

20

1716

1312 12

109 9

5 5 54 4 4 4

0

5

10

15

20

25

DO

F

Tech

nip

Mae

rsk

Saip

em

Sols

tad

Sub

sea

7

Sie

m

Fars

tad

J. R

ay

Edis

on

Alls

eas

Sap

ura

Cre

st

Tid

ewat

er

Bo

urb

on

Isla

nd

Off

sho

re

Oly

mp

ic

CSV > 120 meters AHTS > 20,000bhp

No. vessels

26

Leading high-end position has been maintained

Source: Pareto Research

High-end AHTS and CSV – top players

Norwegian companies control large parts of high end-market

Of the vessel owning companies, the Norwegian players dominate completely

This gives substantial market power

Page 27: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

27

Disclaimer and legal disclosures

Origin of the publication or report This publication or report originates from Pareto Securities AS (“Pareto Securities”, reg. no. 956 632 374 (Norway) and Pareto Öhman AB (“Pareto Öhman”), reg. no. 556206-8956 (Sweden) and (together the Group Companies or the “Pareto Securities Group”) acting through their common unit Pareto Securities Research. The Group Companies are supervised by the Financial Supervisory Authority of their respective home countries. Content of the publication or report This publication or report has been prepared solely by Pareto Securities Research. Opinions or suggestions from Pareto Securities Research may deviate from recommendations or opinions presented by other departments or companies in the Pareto Securities Group. The reason may typically be the result of differing time horizons, methodologies, contexts or other factors. Basis and methods for assessment Opinions and price targets are based on one or more methods of valuation, for instance cash flow analysis, use of multiples, behavioral technical analyses of underlying market movements in combination with considerations of the market situation and the time horizon. Key assumptions of forecasts, price targets and projections in research cited or reproduced appear in the research material from the named sources. The date of publication appears from the research material cited or reproduced. Opinions and estimates may be updated in subsequent versions of the publication or report, provided that the relevant company/issuer is treated anew in such later versions of the publication or report. Credit ratings are based on the same rating scale as international rating agencies and represent the opinion of Pareto Securities Research as to the relative creditworthiness of securities. A credit rating on a standalone basis should not be used as a basis for investment operations. Pareto Securities Research may also provide credit research with more specific price targets based on different valuation methods, including the analysis of key credit ratios and other factors describing the securities creditworthiness, peer group analysis of securities with similar creditworthiness and different DCF-valuations. All credit ratings mentioned in this publication or report are Pareto Securities Research’s own credit rating estimates unless otherwise mentioned. All descriptions of loan agreement structures and loan agreement features are obtained from sources which Pareto Securities Research believes to be reliable, but Pareto Securities Research does not represent or warrant their accuracy. Be aware that investors should go through the specific complete loan agreement before investing in any bonds and not base an investment decision based solely on information contained in this publication or report. Pareto Securities Research has no fixed schedule for updating publications or reports. Unless otherwise stated on the first page, the publication or report has not been reviewed by the issuer before dissemination. In instances where all or part of a report is presented to the issuer prior to publication, the purpose is to ensure that facts are correct. Validity of the publication or report All opinions and estimates in this publication or report are, regardless of source, given in good faith and may only be valid as of the stated date of this publication or report and are subject to change without notice. No individual investment or tax advice The publication or report is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Pareto Securities Research as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, we recommend consulting your financial advisor. The information contained in this publication or report does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. Each investor shall make his/her own appraisal of the tax and other financial merits of his/her investment.

V. 04.12

Page 28: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

28

Disclaimers and disclosures

Sources This publication or report may be based on or contain information, such as opinions, recommendations, estimates, price targets and valuations which emanate from Pareto Securities Research’ analysts or representatives, publicly available information, information from other units or companies in the Group Companies, or other named sources. To the extent this publication or report is based on or contains information emanating from other sources (“Other Sources”) than Pareto Securities Research (“External Information”), Pareto Securities Research has deemed the Other Sources to be reliable but neither the companies in the Pareto Securities Group, others associated or affiliated with said companies nor any other person, guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the External Information. Ratings Equity ratings: “Buy” Pareto Securities Research expects this financial instrument’s total return to exceed 10% over the next six months “Hold” Pareto Securities Research expects this financial instrument’s total return to be 0-10% over the next six months “Sell” Pareto Securities Research expects this financial instrument’s total return to be negative over the next six months Rating system used by Pareto Öhman AB prior to 16 September 2011: “Outperform” The stock is expected to outperform the return on Pareto Öhman’s Nordic sector universe in six to twelve months “Neutral” The stock is expected to perform in line with the return on Pareto Öhman’s Nordic sector universe in six to twelve months “Underperform” The stock is expected to underperform the return on Pareto Öhman’s Nordic sector universe in six to twelve months Credit ratings: AAA Best Quality AA+ / AA / AA- Strong ability for timely payments A+ / A / A- Somewhat more exposed for negative changes BBB+ / BBB / BBB- Adequate ability to meet payments. Some elements of protection. BB+ / BB / BB- Speculative risk. Future not well secured B+ / B / B- Timely payments at the moment, but very exposed to any negative changes CCC+ /CCC/ CCC- Default a likely option Limitation of liability Pareto Securities Group or other associated and affiliated companies assume no liability as regards to any investment, divestment or retention decision taken by the investor on the basis of this publication or report. In no event will entities of the Pareto Securities Group or other associated and affiliated companies be liable for direct, indirect or incidental, special or consequential damages resulting from the information in this publication or report. Neither the information nor any opinion which may be expressed herein constitutes a solicitation by Pareto Securities Research of purchase or sale of any securities nor does it constitute a solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction where solicitation would be unlawful. All information contained in this research report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents, and it is not to be relied upon as authoritative. Risk information The risk of investing in certain financial instruments, including those mentioned in this document, is generally high, as their market value is exposed to a lot of different factors such as the operational and financial conditions of the relevant company, growth prospects, change in interest rates, the economic and political environment, foreign exchange rates, shifts in market sentiments etc. Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor’s currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized. When investing in individual shares, the investor may lose all or part of the investments.

Page 29: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

29

Disclaimers and disclosures

Conflicts of interest Companies in the Pareto Securities Group, affiliates or staff of companies in the Pareto Securities Group, may perform services for, solicit business from, make a market in, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives) of any company mentioned in the publication or report. To limit possible conflicts of interest and counter the abuse of inside knowledge, the analysts of Pareto Securities Research are subject to internal rules on sound ethical conduct, the management of inside information, handling of unpublished research material, contact with other units of the Group Companies and personal account dealing. The internal rules have been prepared in accordance with applicable legislation and relevant industry standards. The object of the internal rules is for example to ensure that no analyst will abuse or cause others to abuse confidential information. It is the policy of Pareto Securities Research that no link exists between revenues from capital markets activities and individual analyst remuneration. The Group Companies are members of national stockbrokers’ associations in each of the countries in which the Group Companies have their head offices. Internal rules have been developed in accordance with recommendations issued by the stockbrokers associations. This material has been prepared following the Pareto Securities Conflict of Interest Policy. The guidelines in the policy include rules and measures aimed at achieving a sufficient degree of independence between various departments, business areas and sub-business areas within the Pareto Securities Group in order to, as far as possible, avoid conflicts of interest from arising between such departments, business areas and sub-business areas as well as their customers. One purpose of such measures is to restrict the flow of information between certain business areas and sub-business areas within the Pareto Securities Group, where conflicts of interest may arise and to safeguard the impartialness of the employees. For example, the Corporate Finance departments and certain other departments included in the Pareto Securities Group are surrounded by arrangements, so-called Chinese Walls, to restrict the flows of sensitive information from such departments. The internal guidelines also include, without limitation, rules aimed at securing the impartialness of, e.g., analysts working in the Pareto Securities Research departments, restrictions with regard to the remuneration paid to such analysts, requirements with respect to the independence of analysts from other departments within the Pareto Securities Group rules concerning contacts with covered companies and rules concerning personal account trading carried out by analysts. Distribution restriction The securities referred to in this publication or report may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions. This publication or report is not intended for and must not be distributed to private customers in Great Britain or the US. This research report is only intended for and may only be distributed to institutional investors in the United States and U.S. entities seeking more information about any of the issuers or securities discussed in this report should contact Auerbach Grayson & Company at 25 West 45th Street New York, NY 10036 Tel. 1 212-453-3549 or Pareto Securities Inc. at 150 East 52nd Street, New York, NY 10022, Tel. 212 829 4200. Auerbach Grayson & Company is a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and is a member of the FINRA & SIPC. Investment products provided by or through Auerbach Grayson & Company or Pareto Securities Research are not FDIC insured may lose value and are not guaranteed by Auerbach Grayson & Company or Pareto Securities Research. Investing in non-U.S. securities may entail certain risks. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with or subject to SEC reporting and other requirements. The information available about non-U.S. companies may be limited, and non-U.S. companies are generally not subject to the same uniform auditing and reporting standards as U.S. companies. Fluctuations in the values of national currencies, as well as the potential for governmental restrictions on currency movements, can significantly erode principal and investment returns. Market rules, conventions and practices may differ from U.S. markets, adding to transaction costs or causing delays in the purchase or sale of securities. Securities of some non-U.S. companies may not be as liquid as securities of comparable U.S. companies. Auerbach Grayson & Company and/or Pareto Securities Research may have material conflicts of interest related to the production or distribution of this research report which, with regard to Pareto Securities Research, are disclosed herein. Pareto Securities Inc. is a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and is a member of FINRA & SIPC. U.S. To the extent required by applicable U.S. laws and regulations, Pareto Securities Inc. accepts responsibility for the contents of this publication. Investment products provided by or through Pareto Securities Inc. or Pareto Securities Research are not FDIC insured, may lose value and are not guaranteed by Pareto Securities Inc. or Pareto Securities Research. Investing in non-U.S. securities may entail certain risks. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with or subject to SEC reporting and other requirements. The information available about non-U.S. companies may be limited, and non-U.S. companies are generally not subject to the same uniform auditing and reporting standards as U.S. companies. Market rules, conventions and practices may differ from U.S. markets, adding to transaction costs or causing delays in the purchase or sale of securities. Securities of some non-U.S. companies may not be as liquid as securities of comparable U.S. companies.

Page 30: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

30

Disclaimers and disclosures

Distribution in Singapore Pareto Securities Asia Pte Ltd (“Pareto Securities Asia”) is an exempt financial advisor under the Singapore Financial Advisers Act and a subsidiary of Pareto Securities AS in Singapore. This report is directed only to "accredited investors", "expert investors" and "institutional investors" as defined in the Singapore Securities and Futures Act. This report is intended for general circulation amongst such investors and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any product referred to in this report, taking into account your specific financial objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to purchase any such product. Please contact Pareto Securities Asia, 16 Collyer Quay, # 27-02 Hitachi Tower, Singapore 049318, at +65 6408 9800 in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with this report. Copyright This publication or report may not be mechanically duplicated, photocopied or otherwise reproduced, in full or in part, under applicable copyright laws. Any infringement of Pareto Securities Research´s copyright can be pursued legally whereby the infringer will be held liable for any and all losses and expenses incurred by the infringement.

Page 31: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

31

Disclaimers and disclosures

Appendix B

Disclosure requirements pursuant to the Norwegian Securities Trading ST Regulation § 3-11, letters d-f, ref the Securities Trading Act Section 3-10

Overview over issuers of financial instruments where Pareto Securities AS have prepared or distributed investment recommendation, where Pareto Securities AS or related companies have been lead manager/co-lead manager or have rendered publicly known not immaterial investment banking services over the previous 12 months:

Appendix C

Disclosure requirements pursuant to the Norwegian Securities Trading ST Regulation § 3-11 (4)

Column I shows the overall ratio of “Buy”, “Hold” and “Sell” in Pareto’s Recommendations in financial instruments.

Column II shows the ratio of “Buy”, “Hold” and “Sell” in Pareto’s Recommendations in financial instruments where Pareto Have provided investment banking services to the issuer the previous 12 months.

Appendix A

Disclosure requirements pursuant to the Norwegian Securities Trading Regulations section 3-10 (2) and section 3-11 (1), letters a-b

Pareto Securities AS does not alone or - together with affiliated companies or persons – owns a portion of the shares exceeding 5 % of the total share capital in any company where a recommendation has been produced or distributed by Pareto Securities AS.

Pareto Securities AS may hold financial instruments in companies where a recommendation has been produced or distributed by Pareto Securities AS in connection with rendering investment services, including Market Making.

Please find below an overview of material interests in shares held by employees in Pareto Securities AS, in companies where a recommendation has been produced or distributed by Pareto Securities AS.

By material interest is meant holdings exceeding a value of NOK 50 000.

Column I Column II

Buy 67.00 % 93.50 %

Hold 21.50 % 3.20 %

Sell 11.50 % 3.20 %

This overview is updated quarterly (last updated 17.04.2012).

CompanyAnalyst

holdings

Total

holdingsCompany

Analyst

holdings

Total

holdings

Algeta - 1 000 Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap - 938

Archer - 13 500 Orkla - 193 347

Bonheur - 2 800 Petroleum Geo-Services - 33 900

BW Offshore - 230 486 Polarcus Limited - 280 612

BWG Homes - 18 210 Protector Forsikring - 499 100

Cermaq - 3 000 Questerre Energy - 277 206

Discovery Offshore - 12 000 Renewable Energy Corp. - 24 961

DNB - 115 535 S.D. Standard Drilling - 100 000

Dockwise - 400 SalMar - 56 400

DOF - 30 000 Sandnes Sparebank - 6 295

EOC Limited - 25 000 Seadrill - 4550

Farstad Shipping - 16 000 Ship Finance Ltd - 2 768

Fred Olsen Energy 100 300 Solstad Offshore - 4 100

Frontline - 10 000 Songa Offshore - 4 000

Gjensidige Forsikring - 139 527 Sparebank 1 Nord-Norge - 20 637

Havila Shipping - 12 450 Sparebank 1 SR-Bank - 60 889

Höegh LNG - 86 203 Sparebanken Øst - 22 349

Kongsberg Gruppen - 63 300 Spectrum - 197 000

Lerøy Seafood Group - 37 400 Statoil - 85 544

Marine Harvest Group - 50 000 Statoil Fuel & Retail - 47 890

Morpol - 116 214 Storebrand - 2 263

Norsk Hydro - 464 773 Subsea 7 - 75 906

Norske Skogindustrier - 37 496 Telenor - 106 600

Northland Resources - 393 000 TGS-NOPEC - 7 450

Norwegian Air Shuttle - 500 Veidekke - 21 500

Noreco - 245 807 Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding A - 404

Odfjell - 7 300 Yara - 26 728

This overview is updated monthly (last updated 17.04.2012)

- Aker - Dolphin Group - Pareto bank

- Aker Floating Production - Eitzen Maritime - Polarcus

- Aker Seafoods - Electromagnetic Geoservices - Prosafe

- Akva Group - Equinox Offshore - Protector Forsikring

- American Shipping Company - Expro Intl. Group Holding - Reservoir Exploration Technology

- Archer - GasLog - Rocksource

- Asia Offshore Drilling - Havila Shipping - Saga Tankers

- Austevoll Seafood - Höegh LNG - SalMar

- BassDrill - KrisEnergy Holding Company - Sandnes Sparebank

- Bergen Group - Lyse Energi - Seadrill

- Blom - Marine Aluminium Holding - Sevan Drilling

- BOA Group - Marine Subsea - Sevan Marine

- BW Offshore - Maritim Industrial Services - Shamaran Petroleum

- Camillo Eitzen & Co - Neptune Offshore - Siemens

- Cina Haikui - Noreco - SinOceanic

- Codfarmers - Norse Energy Corp - Songa Offshore

- Concedo - North Atlantic Drilling - Sparebanken Øst

- DDI - North Energy - Sparebanken Sogn & Fjordane

- Det Norske Oljeselskap - Northland Resources - Standard Drilling

- Discovery Offshore - Ocean Rig - Statoil

- DNO International - Odfjell Drilling - Swedbank

- DOF - OSX - Troll Drilling & Services

- DOF Installer Pacific Drilling - Voss Resort

- DOF Subsea

Page 32: DOFdof.no/Files//Filer/DOF/PDF/presentation/Q1Q4 2012... · Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 AHTS 15-20k bhp AHTS > 20k bhp No. vessels 7 High-end AHTS is a proven

32

Disclaimers and disclosures

Appendix D

This part applies to research reports prepared by Pareto Öhman. Disclosure of positions in financial instruments The beneficial holding of the Pareto Group is 1% or more of the total share capital of the following companies included in Pareto Öhman’s research coverage universe: Isconova, and Ruric. The Pareto Group has material holdings of other financial instruments than shares issued by the following companies included in Pareto Öhman’s research coverage universe: RusForest and PA Resources. Disclosure of assignments and mandates During the past 12 months, members of the Pareto Group have been lead manager or co-lead manager of publicly disclosed issues or offers of or with regard to securities of the following companies included in Öhman’s research coverage universe: Shamaran Petroleum, Lucara Diamonds, Tinkoff/Edigaco and Trigon Agri. During the past 12 months, members of the Pareto Group have provided other investment banking services to and received compensation for such services from the following companies included in Öhman’s research coverage universe: Africa Oil, BlackPearl Resources, Isconova, JLT Mobile Computers, RusForest, Trigon Agri, Lucara Diamonds and Shamaran Petroleum. Members of the Pareto Group provide market making or other liquidity providing services to the following companies included in Öhman’s research coverage universe: 2Entertain, Africa Oil, Beijer Electronics, Black Pearl Resources, Cloetta, Coastal Contacts, Episurf, Fastighets AB Balder, G&L Beijer, Isconova, JLT, NAXS, Partnertech, Prevas, Ruric, Shamaran Petroleum, Tethys Oil and Trigon Agri. Members of the Pareto Group have entered into agreements concerning the inclusion of the company in question in Öhman’s research coverage universe with the following companies: Africa Oil, Isconova and Shamaran Petroleum. This overview is updated monthly. Previous rating system (up to 16 Sep 2011) Rating Expected total return in six to twelve months OUTPERFORM The stock is expected to outperform the return on our Nordic sector universe NEUTRAL The stock is expected to perform in line with the return on our Nordic sector universe UNDERPERFORM The stock is expected to underperform the return on our Nordic sector universe


Recommended