| Date post: | 01-Nov-2014 |
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Automaker Survey Confirms:
Aluminum Use at All-Time High
and Set for Significant Increase
Brad Soultz
Vice President & General Manager, Automotive and
Specialty Products Group - North America, Novelis
on behalf of
The Aluminum Association
Aluminum Transportation Group (ATG)
1
www.aluminumintransportation.org
Defining Who We Are
The Aluminum Association’s Aluminum Transportation Group (ATG)
www.aluminumintransportation.org
Aluminum Builds a Better Vehicle
3
Reduced Emissions
Mass Reduction
Enhanced Performance
Improved Safety
Better Fuel Economy
Infinitely Recyclable
www.aluminumintransportation.org
Vehicle Make-Up Is Changing
4
• Two main factors
leading automakers to
rethink vehicle design
– Consumer demand and
desire for increased fuel
efficiency coupled with
a need to continuously
improve safety, function
and comfort
– New, stringent fuel
economy standards
www.aluminumintransportation.org
Survey of North American
Automakers by Ducker Worldwide
5
Primary Objective
Accurate estimate of 2012 North American light
vehicle aluminum content
Secondary Objective
Estimate “most likely” material mix through 2025
www.aluminumintransportation.org
40 Years of Uninterrupted Growth
6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
Po
un
ds p
er
Veh
icle
Aluminum Content – Pounds Per Vehicle
Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
2012
343 lbs per vehicle
Average increase of 7 lbs
per year for 35 years
www.aluminumintransportation.org
Aluminum Content in 2012
7
125
14
23
24
49
60
69
70
88
89
112
115
126
130
371
516
588
636
785
790
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
All Other Compnents
Drive Shafts & Yokes
IP Structure
Cradles & Crossmembers
Engine Mounts
Other Steering
Differential Carriers
Bumpers
Transfer Cases
Control Arms & Links
Intake Manifolds
Steering Knuckles
Closures
Brake Parts
Other Engine
Heat Transfer
Cylinder Heads
Cylinder Blocks
Transmissions
Wheels
Millions of Pounds
Nearly 80% of engine blocks
in 2012 are aluminum
Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
Record aluminum
content in 2012:
• Engine Blocks
• Closures
• Bumpers
• Steering Knuckles
• IP Structures
www.aluminumintransportation.org
2009-2012
Aluminum Content Growth
8Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
1%
3%
3%
3%
5%
10%
16%
19%
58%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Heat Transfer
Engine
Transmission & Driveline
Wheels & Brakes
Average Increase
Steering
Suspension
Crossmembers
Body, Bumper & Closure (over 50% from closures)
Total Poundswww.aluminumintransportation.org
Aluminum Share
Expected to Double
9Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
Perc
ent of
Mate
rial M
ix
50% 51% 54%
42% 38% 30%
8% 11% 16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2015 2025
Aluminum
Steel
All OtherMaterials
www.aluminumintransportation.org
Growth Projected to Reach
400 Pounds Per Vehicle by 2015/2016
10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
Po
un
ds p
er
Veh
icle
Aluminum Content – Pounds Per Vehicle
2015
400 lbs per vehicle
The trend line continues
to be supported by
new aluminum applications
Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
2012
343 lbs per vehicle
Aluminum Forecast
www.aluminumintransportation.org
New Applications Required to
Achieve 2015/2016 Growth Scenario
11
12
10
6
3 2 3
58
10 11 121
4
8
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Po
un
ds p
er
Veh
icle
North American Light Vehicle Aluminum Content Increases
Pounds per Vehicle New Applications(Primarily body, bumper
and closure components)
Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011www.aluminumintransportation.org
Average Net Cost of Direct and
Indirect Weight Reduction
Increased use of aluminum necessary and cost effective
in achieving 400 lb weight reduction by 2025
12Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011 &
IBIS 2005
Cost Dollar/Pound
Saved
Primary $2.00
Secondary ($1.82)
Net Cost $0.18
Average Cost of Direct Weight Savings
www.aluminumintransportation.org
Ducker Survey Conclusions
• Consumer demand and fuel economy regulations
are driving a dramatic increase in aluminum usage
– Weight savings from aluminum and AHSS for body parts
• Automakers working hard to improve fuel economy
and maintain or improve size, function, safety and
comfort
• Weight reduction with aluminum is a cost effective
part of the solution
13Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
www.aluminumintransportation.org
Ducker Survey Conclusions
• By 2025, the average vehicle will get lighter by 400 lbs.
– Aluminum and AHSS
– Aluminum
• Sheet , extrusions
• Closures, body-in-white, bumper, and suspension components
• Aluminum will grow to 16% of curb weight
– 343 pounds in 2012
– 550 pounds in 2025
– Increase of 207 lbs. in 13 years
– Industry added 200 lbs. per vehicle from 1990 to 2010
• This is a conservative forecast
14Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
www.aluminumintransportation.org
15
Automaker Survey Confirms:
Aluminum Use at All-Time High
and Set for Significant Increase
Thank You
www.aluminumintransportation.org
