2012 Redistricting Overview

State and Federal Government RelationsCampaign Finance PracticeLOCKRIDGE GRINDAL NAUEN P.L.L.P.100 Washington Avenue S. | Suite 2200 | Minneapolis, MN  55401P: 612-339-6900 | www.locklaw.com

Judicial Order - Overview

Court applied redistricting principles “Least Change” approach

Court: Modest changes still could adjust for population shifts

Judicial view of its role in this process Further litigation

U.S. Congress - Background

Changing the U.S. House MapDistrict Representative Population Deviation

MN-1 Tim Walz (D) 644,787 (18,204)

MN-2 John Kline (R) 732,515 69,524

MN-3 Erik Paulsen (R) 650,185 (12,806)

MN-4 Betty McCollum (D) 614,624 (48,367)

MN-6 Michele Bachmann (R) 759,478 96,487

MN-5 Keith Ellison (D) 616,482 (46,509)

MN-7 Collin Peterson (D) 625,512 (37,479)

MN-8 Chip Cravaack (R) 660,342 (2,649)

TOTAL   5,303,925  

Maps Proposed by Parties

GOP Plan DFL Plan Citizens Group Plan

Maps Proposed by Parties: Metro Area

GOP Plan DFL Plan Citizens Group Plan

Panel: U.S. Congress

Panel: U.S. Congress - Metro Area

Minnesota Legislature - Overview 48 paired incumbents

32 House, 16 Senate Similar to 2002 Redistricting

23 Open Seats 15 House 8 Senate

Minnesota House – Paired Incumbents 16 Overall 6 DFL vs. DFL (4B, 17A, 41A, 61A, 63B,

66A) 7 GOP vs. GOP (8B, 18B, 23B, 35B, 38B,

39A, 56A) 3 DFL vs GOP (5A, 5B, 11B

Minnesota House– Paired Incumbents

Minnesota Senate– Paired Incumbents 8 Overall 4 GOP vs. GOP (8, 23, 31, 39) 2 DFL vs. DFL (61, 66) 2 GOP vs. DFL (5, 17)

Minnesota Senate – Paired Incumbents 5 – John Carlson (GOP) & Tom Saxhaug (DFL) 8 – Bill Ingebrigtsen (GOP) & Gretchen Hoffman (GOP) 17 – Joe Gimse (GOP) & Gary Kubly (DFL) 23 – Julie Rosen (GOP) & Al DeDruif (GOP) 31 – Michele Benson (GOP) & Mike Jungbauer (GOP) 39 – Ted Lillie (GOP) & Ray Vandeveer (GOP) 61 – Ken Kelash (DFL) & Scott Dibble (DFL) 66 – John Marty (DFL) & Mary Jo McGuire (DFL)

Minnesota House - Open Seats

Competitive Open House Seats 2B – Mahnomen & Becker Counties 10B – Aitkin & Crow Wing Counties 32A – Cambridge, Isanti 32B – Chisago Lakes 37A – Spring Lake Park, Coon Rapids 43A – Maplewood, White Bear Lake,

Mahtomedi

Minnesota Senate - Open Seats

Competitive Senate Open Seats 20 – New Prague, Northfield, Elko New

Market, Montgomery 42 – Vadnais Heights, Arden Hills,

Shoreview 53 – Woodbury, Oakdale

Minnesota Legislature – Seats of Interest

(Initial) Political Impact

New MN Senate Districts – Generic Partisan Performance – “Top of the Ticket” 2006: Pawlenty won 43 (Hatch 24) 2008: Obama won 40 (McCain 27)

AVERAGE: GOP 32, DFL 35

2012 Legislative Session Impacts Retirements Legislators Declaring for other Office Legislators Moving Voting Patterns: Intra-party competition for delegates’

votes I.e., 2 incumbents competing for same seat – how will that affect

their legislative activity?

Fundraising Caucus Leadership

Settle Intra-party debates? New configuration – will it affect who’s chosen to lead?

…it begins!

Questions?

Thank You Stay tuned for more Webinars!

State and Federal Government RelationsCampaign Finance PracticeLOCKRIDGE GRINDAL NAUEN P.L.L.P.100 Washington Avenue S. | Suite 2200 | Minneapolis, MN  55401P: 612-339-6900 | www.locklaw.com