February 10, 2012
2012 TRANSUNION PROPERTY MANAGEMENT SUMMIT
Multifamily Market Dynamics
Jamie Woodwell, Vice President, Commercial/Multifamily Research, Mortgage Bankers Association
Multifamily Rental in the Broader Housing Market
• MBA’s Commercial/Multifamily Quarterly Data Book
• MBA Analysis of American Housing Survey
• MBA Analysis of Census Population Projections
• MBA Analysis of Housing Vacancy Survey
• Reports from MBA’s Research Institute for Housing America
• MBA Analysis of Housing Starts Data
© 2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
Thousands of Households, by Tenure and Structure Size, 2009
3
Source: Census Bureau, American Housing Survey.
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Composition of renter households, by building size, 2009
4
Source: Census Bureau, American Housing Survey.
Thousands of households
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Composition of Renter Households, by Building Size, 2009
5
Source: Census Bureau, American Housing Survey.
Thousands of households
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Thousands of Households, by Tenure and Household Income, 2009
6
Source: Census Bureau, American Housing Survey.
Thousands of households
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Changes in Number of Owner- & Renter-occupied Households, & Homeownership Rate
7
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau.
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Projected population change, by age, 2010 –2015 & 2015 – 2020
8
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau
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Number of Owner- & Renter-occupied Households, by Age of Householder, 2000 to 2010
9
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau.
Less than 35 years old Age 35 to 44 Age 45 to 54 Age 55 to 64 Age 65 and older
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Home-Buying Sentiment for Owners and Renters Since 1992
10
Source: Data from Gary V. Engelhardt, “The Great Recession and Attitudes Toward Home-Buying,” Research Institute for Housing America (2011).
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Home-Buying and Selling Sentiment Since 1992
11
Source: Data from Gary V. Engelhardt, “The Great Recession and Attitudes Toward Home-Buying,” Research Institute for Housing America (2011).
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Factors Affecting Homeownership Rates
12
Source: Homeownership Boom and Bust 2000 to 2009: Where Will the Homeownership Rate Go from Here?, Stuart A. Gabriel and Stuart S. Rosenthal, Research Institute for Housing America (2011).
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Percent of Tenants “Probably” or “Definitely” Intend to Renew
13
Source: Kingsley Associates.
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Multifamily Fundamentals
• MBA’s Commercial/Multifamily Quarterly Data Book
• MBA Analysis of REIS Data
• MBA Analysis of NCREIF NOI Data
• MBA Analysis of Equity Residential Quarterly Earnings
• MBA Analysis of Real Capital Analytics Data
• MBA Analysis of Moody’s, NCREIF and Green Street Property Price Data
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Commercial/Multifamily Vacancy & Occupancy Rates, by Property Type by Quarter
15
Source: Reis, Inc.© 2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved
Year-over-Year Percent Change in Net Operating Income Among NCREIF Properties
16
Source: NCREIF.
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Thousands of Households, by Tenure and Household Income, 2009
17
Source: Equity Residential.
Q3 2009 to Q3 2010 Q3 2010 to Q3 2011
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Commercial/Multifamily Property Sales Volume, Properties & Portfolios $5 million & Greater
18
Source: Real Capital Analytics.
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Commercial/Multifamily Capitalization Rates, Properties & Portfolios $5 Million & Greater
19
Sources: Real Capital Analytics and Federal Reserve Board.
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Indexes of Commercial/Multifamily Property Prices (2007Q3 = 100)
20
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody’s/REAL and NCREIF.
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Indexes of Commercial/Multifamily Property Prices & the Dow Jones Industrial Average (2007Q3 = 100)
21
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody’s/REAL and NCREIF and Dow Jones.
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Indexes of Commercial/Multifamily Property Prices (2007Q3 = 100) & Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding ($thousands)
22
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody’s/REAL and NCREIF.
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Housing Starts, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rate, Thousands of Units
23
Source: Census Bureau.
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Multifamily Finance
• MBA’s Annual Report on Multifamily Lending
• MBA’s Annual Origination Summation
• MBA’s Quarterly Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations Index
• MBA’s Quarterly Analysis of Mortgage Debt Outstanding
• MBA’s Annual Report on Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Maturity Volumes
• MBA’s Quarterly Analysis of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates
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Yields on Treasury Nominal Securities at Constant Maturity, Monthly Averages of Daily Data (percent)
25
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
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Total & Institutional Multifamily Lending ($Millions)
26
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Annual Origination Summation and Annual Report on Multifamily Housing.
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Mortgage Bankers Multifamily & Commercial/Multifamily Origination Indexes (index value, 2001 avg quarter = 100, right)
27
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Origination Index.
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Index of Quarterly Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers’ Originations, by Investor Group (2001 average quarter = 100)
28
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Origination Index.
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Originations for Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac & Total & Institutional Multifamily Lending ($Millions)
29
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Annual Origination Summation and Annual Report on Multifamily Lending, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac press releases.
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Multifamily Lending in 2010, by Lender Average Loan Size
30
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Annual Report on Multifamily Lending.
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Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding ($millions)
31
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association analysis of Federal Reserve Board’s Flow of Funds.
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Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding ($millions)
32
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Quarterly Analysis of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding.
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Multifamily and Other Commercial Mortgage Delinquency Rates Among Major Investor
33
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau.
Bank & Thrift (90+ day delinquency or nonaccrual) CMBS (30+ day delinquency including REO)
Life Companies (60+ day delinquency including in process of foreclosure)
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (60+ day delinquency)
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Non-Bank UPB of Outstanding Multifamily Mortgages, by Year of Maturity, as of Dec. 31, 2010
34
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Commercial/Multifamily Loan Maturity Volumes.
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Contact Information & MBA Resources
Jamie WoodwellVice President
Commercial Real Estate ResearchMortgage Bankers Association
1717 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036
MBA homepage: www.mortgagebankers.org
MBA research page: www.mortgagebankers.org/research
Research Institute for Housing America:http://www.housingamerica.org
MBA Newslink:http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/MBANewsLink
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MBA’s Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Research Reports
www.mortgagebankers.org/research© 2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved