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AgSAgS--Monitoring Shipbuilding:Monitoring Shipbuilding:AgSAgS--Monitoring Shipbuilding:Monitoring Shipbuilding:

WWorld orld SShipbuilding Statistics:hipbuilding Statistics:Cruise Ships Cruise Ships -- MegayachtsMegayachts -- Offshore Installation VesselsOffshore Installation Vessels

WWorld orld SShipbuilding Statistics:hipbuilding Statistics:Cruise Ships Cruise Ships -- MegayachtsMegayachts -- Offshore Installation VesselsOffshore Installation Vessels

Sector Committee ShipbuildingMay 2013 Luxembourg

Thorsten Ludwig

ContentContentContentContent

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ShipbuildingShipbuilding aactivityctivity2000 2000 3. Q. 20123. Q. 2012

ShipbuildingShipbuilding aactivityctivity2000 2000 3. Q. 20123. Q. 2012

200,000

250,000T

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 3Q.2012Orderbook 45,88 48,27 48,94 70,80 92,80 107,2 138,0 183,7 194,1 156,2 128,0 111,4 96,53NewOrders 29,43 23,34 20,47 41,70 45,12 39,58 57,31 85,27 42,95 16,55 38,58 30,82 18,66Deliveries 20,34 20,18 21,39 22,82 25,46 29,35 34,12 34,64 41,87 44,40 51,57 51,12 39,86

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

1.000C

GT

Orderbook

NewOrdersDeliveries

Global

3035

14 00016,00018,000 Orderbook

CESA/SeaEurope

Source: SeaEurope MMR Dec. 2012

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 3Q.2012Orderbook 13,267 12,724 9,652 9,610 12,406 15,738 16,885 16,752 13,692 9,470 6,394 5,744 5,205NewOrders 7,591 4,534 2,262 3,951 6,798 7,226 5,379 5,425 2,114 561 2,459 1,822 1,209Deliveries 4,794 4,870 4,817 4,479 4,194 3,851 4,642 4,870 4,820 3,895 3,947 2,446 1,478CESAshareofglobalorderbook(%) 28.92 26.36 19.72 13.57 13.37 14.68 12.24 9.12 7.05 6.06 4.99 5.15 5.39

0510152025

02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000

%

1.000C

GT NewOrders

Deliveries

CESAshareofglobalorderbook(%)

Cruise Cruise ShipsShipsCruise Cruise ShipsShips

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Cruise Cruise ShipShip BuildingBuilding in 2010in 2010Cruise Cruise ShipShip BuildingBuilding in 2010in 2010

STX Turku:1 vessel

Meyerwerft:7 vessels

STX St. Nazaire:1 vessel

7 vessels

Fincantieri:13 vesselsAsia

0%

Global cruise ship orderbook (1.3.2010): 22 vessels in total 2.434.155 GT

Europe100%

Cruise Cruise ShipShip BuildingBuilding in in 20132013Cruise Cruise ShipShip BuildingBuilding in in 20132013

STX Turku:2 vessels

Meyerwerft:7 vessels

STX St. Nazaire:3 vessels

7 vessels

Fincantieri:9 vessels Xiamen

ShipbuildingIndustry :1 vessel

Mitsubishi (MHI):2 vessels

Samsung Heavy Industries:

1 vessel

Asia16%

Global cruise ship orderbook (10.1.2013): 24 vessels in total 2.951.600 GT

Europe84%

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Key data:Cruise ship building

Orderbook of cruise ships worldwide by shipyard (basis: gt)

Deliveries of cruise ship newbuildingsby shipyard and year of delivery (Number of ships)

MitsubishiSamsungHeavy

XiamenInternational

8XiamenShipbuilding

Deliveries of cruise ship newbuildings by shipyard and year of delivery (GT)

MeyerWerft1,001,000

34%

Fincantieri894,10030%STXFinland

194,0007%

STXFrance404,50014%

Mitsubishi(MHI)250,000

8%

HeavyIndustries108,000

4%

InternationalCruiseCo.Ltd

100,0003%

2 2 21

2 23

2

1

12

1

1

1

1

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

p gIndustryCo.LtdSamsungHeavyIndustries

Mitsubishi(MHI)

STXFrance

STXFinland

Fincantieri

MeyerWerftGmbH

Date: 10/01/2013 - Sources: AgS-Monitoring, cruisindustrynews.com, AMEM, shipcruise.com

Deliveries of cruise ship newbuildings by shipyard and year of delivery (GT)

215,000 302,000 321,000 163,000

151,600

273,500 287,000

182,000

97,000 97,000

179,500

225,000

125,000

125,000

108,000

100,0000

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

XiamenShipbuildingIndustryCo.LtdSamsungHeavyIndustriesMitsubishi(MHI)STXFranceSTXFinlandFincantieri

MeyerWerftGmbH

Major Major playerplayer in cruise in cruise industryindustryMajor Major playerplayer in cruise in cruise industryindustry

World wide Passenger Ship capacityCompany market share(36.2 bn US$

in 2013)

Passenger capacity in

2013

Ship capacityin 2013

(No. of ships)

48,4% 208.710 10323,3% 97.610 40

7,6% 30.170 127,0% 31.250 137,0% 31.250 132,5% 5.510 4

Others (32 comp.) 11,2% 62.330 111TOTAL 100% 438.580 283

Source: cruisemarketwatch.com; AgS-Monitoring

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OrderbookOrderbook forfor cruise cruise shipsships clientclientOrderbookOrderbook forfor cruise cruise shipsships clientclient

Cli Tonnage/Year of Delivery (1.000GT) Total Share ofClient o age/ ea o e e y ( 000 G ) TotalTonnageShareofTotal2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

CCL 212 273,5 365 260 1.110,5 37,6%NCL 144 144 163 163 614 20,8%RCL 158 158 225 541 18,3%TUI/RCL 97 97 194 6,6%MSC 140 140 4,7%Utopia 108 108 3,7%XiamenInternationalCruise 100 100 3,4%,VikingOcean 47 47 94 3,2%HapagLloyd 39,5 39,5 1,3%Ponant 10,6 10,6 0,4%Total 546,1 780,5 830 532 163 100 2.951,6 100.00%

Source: cruisemarketwatch.com; AgS-Monitoring

SizeSize--developmentdevelopment in cruise in cruise shipship buildingbuildingSizeSize--developmentdevelopment in cruise in cruise shipship buildingbuilding

Source: STX Turku 2012

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World cruise fleet World cruise fleet need for need for tonnagetonnage(base (base case scenario)case scenario)

World cruise fleet World cruise fleet need for need for tonnagetonnage(base (base case scenario)case scenario)

In 2015 onwards additional tonnage is needed in order for the fleet growth to reach 5 percent.

Based on above assumption some 8 vessels per year will be needed in addition to the current order book in 20152017. There will be overcapacityThere will be overcapacity in building market for cruise ships which results in downward pressure on building prices.

Source: RS Platou, 3/2012

World cruise fleet World cruise fleet need for need for tonnagetonnage(high (high case scenario)case scenario)

World cruise fleet World cruise fleet need for need for tonnagetonnage(high (high case scenario)case scenario)

In 2015 onwards additional tonnage is needed in order for the fleet growth to reach 7 percent.

Based on above assumption some 12 vessels per year will be needed in addition to the current order book in 2015 2017 As deliveries20152017. As deliveries will exceed delivery capacity, this could result in an increase in newbuilding prices.

Source: RS Platou, 3/2012

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2013 2013 HHighlightsighlights2013 2013 HHighlightsighlights

Cruise passengers carried worldwide in 2013 is forecast at 20.9 million a 3 3% increase over 2012million, a 3.3% increase over 2012.The top two cruise companies Carnival Corporation and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Co account for 71.7% of worldwide share of revenue.Total worldwide cruise capacity at the end of 2013 will be 438,595 passengers (a 3.0% increase over 2012) and 283 ships.A total of six new ships will be added in 2013 with a gain in passenger capacity of 14,074.Looking out further, 19 more new cruise ships will add 64.300 passenger capacity until 2018.By 2017, 23.7 million cruise passengers are expected to be carried worldwide of which 59.1% will originate from North America and 27.4% Europe.

Date: 10/01/2013 - Sources: AgS-Monitoring, cruisindustrynews.com, AMEM, shipcruise.com

Passenger forecast:Passenger forecast:cruise ship industrycruise ship industryPassenger forecast:Passenger forecast:cruise ship industrycruise ship industry

Source: cruisemarketwatch.com (10.1.2013)

Worldwide cruise industry has an annual passenger compound annual growth rate of 7% from 1990 2017.

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MegayachtsMegayachtsMegayachtsMegayachts

MegayachtMegayacht--BuildingBuilding: Global & Europe: Global & EuropeMegayachtMegayacht--BuildingBuilding: Global & Europe: Global & Europe

696yachts

28.117mtotal length

40,6maverage length

198yards

Yachts>=24m

10.996mtotal length

168megayachts

Megayachts>= 45m

82yards

65,5maverage length

41% 24% 39%

Norway1 yardNetherlands

9 yards

UK1 yard

Germany4 yards

Finland1 yard78%

Italy24 yards

France3 yards

Greece4 yards

1 yard

Turkey14 yards

Spain1 yard

Poland1 yard

Croatia1 yard

64 European Yards building megayachts

Source: Boat International; calculations by AgSDate: January 2013

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Global Global MMegayachtegayacht OrderbookOrderbookGlobal Global MMegayachtegayacht OrderbookOrderbook

Orderbook of megayachts (>45 meter)and share b b ilding co ntr (basis meter)

Top Ten of megayacht-building countries

China150.001%

France186.502%

Germany1,124.0311% Greece

355.854%

Netherlands1.778,9518%

Turkey1,420.4714%

UnitedStates893.549%

TopTen Length (m)Italy 3.717,35TheNetherlands 1.778,95Turkey 1.420,47Germany 1.124,03UnitedStates 893,54Greece 355,85Japan 198,80France 186,50

l d

and share by building country (basis: meter)

Italy3,717.3537%

Japan198.802%

NewZealand181.002%

NewZealand 181,00China 150,00

Totallength(TopTen) 10.006,49

Source: Boat InternationalDate: January 2013

OrderbookOrderbook andand deliveriesdeliveries forfor mmegayachtsegayachts(Date: Sept. 2012)(Date: Sept. 2012)

OrderbookOrderbook andand deliveriesdeliveries forfor mmegayachtsegayachts(Date: Sept. 2012)(Date: Sept. 2012)

Source: Boat International

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Offshore Installation Offshore Installation VesselsVesselsOffshore Installation Offshore Installation VesselsVessels

Future Future ChallengesChallenges forforOffshore Installation Offshore Installation VesselsVessels

Future Future ChallengesChallenges forforOffshore Installation Offshore Installation VesselsVessels

2000 2005 2010 2015Size-Development of Offshore-Turbines

Power Output 2 MW 3,5 MW 5 MW 7,5 MWRotor Diameter 80m 90m 120m 135m+Nacelle Mass 70 to 100 to 130-350 to 150-350 toHub Height 70m 80m 90m 100m

Demand Supply(existing&ordered)Vessel supply and demand

810

2124

26

13

2326

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Num

bero

fvessels

Sources: Douglas-Westwood 2012Roland Berger 2013

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Global Offshore MarketGlobal Offshore MarketGlobal Offshore MarketGlobal Offshore Market

0 1.1 1.6

2013 2016 2020

Investment (EUR bn p.a.)

79.4

14.4

0

5

10

15

20 Investment (EUR bn p.a.)

1.6 3.24.8

2013 2016 2020

Investment (EUR bn p.a.)

02013 2016 2020

Offshore projects

Plans for offshore projects

Offshore Installation Offshore Installation VesselsVessels::ConstructionConstruction ActivityActivity ShiftingShifting EastEast

Offshore Installation Offshore Installation VesselsVessels::ConstructionConstruction ActivityActivity ShiftingShifting EastEast

Germany

Pre-2011 Post-2011

Lithuania

Pre-2011 Post-2011

Poland

Pre-2011 Post-2011

China

Pre-2011 Post-2011

South Korea

Pre-2011

Post-2011

UAE

Pre-2011

Belgium

Pre-2011 Post-2011

The Netherlands

Pre-2011 Post-2011

USA

Pre-2011 Post-2011

Singapore

Pre-2011 Post-2011

Post-2011

Source: Douglas-Westwood 2012

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ThankThank YouYou!!ThankThank YouYou!!

Agentur fr Struktur- und P l t i kl G bH (A S)Personalentwicklung GmbH (AgS)

Anne-Conway-Str. 5D-28359 Bremeninfo@ags-info.de

Tel.: +49-421-3349 610

DebtDebt CCrisisrisis: South : South KoreanKorean ShipyardsShipyardsDebtDebt CCrisisrisis: South : South KoreanKorean ShipyardsShipyards

In 2012 combined debts of South Koreas sevenlargest shipyards spiked 44%.

21.0

20

25 Development of combined debts of the seven largestSouth Korean shipyards (2009-2012)

g py p %

HHI, Samsung HI an five other shipyards heldcombined 18.8 bn US$ (21 trillion WON) in debtat the end of 2012:

HHI: 6.54 trillion WON Samsung HI: 2.96 trillion WON DSME: 4.08 trillion WON STX: 12 trillion WON (?)

12.1

14.7 14.6

0

5

10

15

20

2009 2010 2011 2012

trillionW

ON

Source: Yonhap News, 4.4.2013