of 82
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Vector ipelineTM
Customer MeetingOctober 16, 2013
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OverviewVector ipeline
TM
Vector ipelineTM
Welcome John Donaldson
Vector Update Amy Bruhn & Matt Malinowski
Enbridge Update Ron Brintnell
DTE Update Pete Cianci
Natural Gas Market Dynamics Sesha Narayan
Discussion
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Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM
Amy BruhnManager, Transportation Services
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Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM Commercial Products
Firm Services FT-1 Firm Transportation FT-H Hourly Firm Transportation FT-L Limited Firm Transportation
Interruptible Services IT-1 Interruptible Transportation
PALS-1 Park and Loan Service TTS Title Transfer Service MBA Management of Balancing Agreement
Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM
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Competitive Rates to Dawn Commodity Basis to Henry Hub
AECO Chicago Dawn
-$0.42 +$0.02 US $/Dth
Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM
Based on Vectors analysis of TCPL 2013-2017 Approved Tolls effective July 1, 2013
Based on Henry Hub Prices from 09/27/2013, one year starting November 2013 with a 1.0 US/CDN conversion Includes fuel based on one year average
VECTOR HH + $0.37
TCPL
TCPL / GREAT LAKES HH + $0.95
HH + $1.36 -$0.99
-$0.58
Emerson
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Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM Abandonment Cost Recovery
The National Energy Board (NEB) issued its Reasons for Decision (RH-2-2008) for the Land Matters Consultation Initiative (LMCI) Stream 3 in May2009, whereby it required regulated Group 1 and Group 2 pipelines to filefor future abandonment cost recovery mechanisms.
Vectors physical abandonment plan was filed with the NEB, reflectingestimated future abandonment costs of $4.8 million ($CAN).
Vectors proposed abandonment cost collection and set asidemechanisms was filed with the NEB on May 31, 2013.
Future abandonment costs are to be collected from shippers commencingno later than January 1, 2015 over a period of 40 years and placed into a
trust for safekeeping.
The abandonment surcharge is proposed to be CAN $0.0004 per GJ, butis still illustrative. It is proposed to be charged similar to the ACAsurcharge.
Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM
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Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM Current Home Page
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Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM New Home Page
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Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM Familiar Navigation
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Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM Web Site Redesign
Easy access to key information on thehome page
Retaining menu bar so its easy to findwhat you usually look for
Design is still in progress, so wewelcome your input
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Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM
Matt MalinowskiManager, Market Development
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Vector Update(continued)
Operations
2013 ILI ProgramNew Facilities
Open Season Available CapacityExpansion Capabilities
Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM
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Operations
Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM
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Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTMContinued Engine Replacements
Spring 2013 Washington StationTwo Engines
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Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM 2014 Engine Changeouts
Springville Unit #2 Spring 2014
This was originally planned for 2013 butpostponed due to extended run life
Athens Spring 2014
Springville Unit #1 Fall 2014
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Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM 2014 Maintenance
Highland Compressor replace withnew assembly - TBD
Springville Unit #1 replace entirecontrol system - Fall 2014 (2-3 weeks)
Older equipment no longer OEM supported Eventually impacts all Springville and
Highland engines
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Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM 2014 Maintenance
Additional electronic upgradesthroughout the system due to older
equipment being obsolete Exhaust stack repair at Washington
Station
Pipeline Integrity Inspection Digs
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2014 Outagesector ipeline TMVector ipeline TM
Goal is for no impact to Firm Servicedue to planned maintenance
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2013 ILI Program
Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM
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ILI Program
Required every seven years Requires several tool runs
Three discrete segments Three different tool types
Gauge plate tool failed along the Joliet toHighland segment and required removal
All ILI tool runs completed by July 20 No immediate concerns detected
Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM
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Gauge Plate Toolector ipeline TMVector ipeline TM
Tool weight3300 lbs(1500 kg)
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New Facilities
Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM
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Sheridan
New receipt point for up to 4.5 MMcf/dof Michigan production gas from a localproducer (West Bay Exploration)
DTE Gas Gathering handles smalllateral and metering This was flare gas from an oil play
In-Service May 16, 2013
Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM
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Sheridanector ipeline TMVector ipeline TM
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Gas-Fired Generation
Proposed Powerplants
Ontario 300 MW near Lambton Midwest 600 to 1200 MW along
Vector in Indiana
Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM
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Available Capacity
Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM
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Capacityector ipeline TMVector ipeline TM
Currently holding Open Season forlong-haul capacity
116,885 Dth/d available Nov. 1, 2013 Seeking five-year term Rate of $0.20 per Dth Open Season closes Monday Oct. 21
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Capacity Valueector ipeline TMVector ipeline TM
Cash is King!
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Future Expansion
Vector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM
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MICHIGAN
Chicago
Detroit
Lake Michigan
Lake Erie
Lake Huron
ILLINOIS INDIANA
ONTARIOWISCONSIN
Dawn (Union)
VectorExpans ion Capabil i t ies
ector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM
Joliet
Long Haul 105 MDth/d Incremental Capacity
2 New Compressor Units Lease Line Loop
Washington
Highland
Athens
Springville
Short Haul 300-850 MDth/d Incremental Capacity
Lease Line Loop Potential Compression
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MICHIGAN
Chicago
Detroit
Lake Michigan
Lake Erie
Lake Huron
ONTARIO
WISCONSIN
Dawn (Union)
VectorMichig an Supp ly Hub
ector ipelineTM
Vector ipelineTM
Joliet
Washington
Highland
Athens
Springville
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Vector ipelineTM
Questions
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Providing A Competitive Link tothe WCSB and the Bakken
Vector Pipeline Shipper MeetingOctober 17, 2013
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A Unique Energy Transporter
System Capability
Approximately 1.6 Bcf/d of capacity 250 mmcf/d receipt capacity from Bakken Over 99% reliability
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Rich Gas Capability / Advantages
Designed and optimized to ship
liquids-rich natural gas streams Carries over 100,000 bpd of
entrained natural gas liquids
Average heat content:
Alliance pipeline~1110 Btu/cf Other WCSB &
Midwest pipelines~1025 Btu/cf
Alliance volumetric toll yieldsdecreasing energy toll asheat content rises
Alliance heat content is rising
980
1,000
1,020
1,040
1,060
1,080
1,100
1,120
APL Other Regional Pipelines
B t u / c f
Alliance vs. Other WCSB & Midwest Pipelines
Source: WCSB & Midwest Pipeline websites, Alliance website
ll d
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Vector
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010 2015 2020 2025
B c
f / d
Bakken
Montney
Duvernay
NGL Rich Shale Gas Production
02468
10121416
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
B c
f / d Other
TransportPower IndustrialCommercialResidential
Source: Wood Mackenzie Spring 2013 Long-Term View
Source: Enbridge 2013 Fundamentals View
Midwest Region Demand Growth
Well Positioned
RegionHeat Content
(btu/cf)
BC North Montney > 1200
BC Groundbirch > 1100
AB Montney > 1100
AB Duvernay > 1200
AB Cardium > 1100
North Dakota Bakken > 1200
NGL Rich Shale Gas Heat Content
ACE H b Alli Chi E h
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ACE Hub Alliance Chicago Exchange
ACE Hub Services and Connections: Enhanced Title Transfers Interruptible Wheeling (IW) Park and Loan (PAL)
k
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New 2015+ Services Framework
ChicagoHub
Tioga Lateral
TransferPool
New Services Framework includes :
New zones
New Canadian Trading Pool
Toll Certainty
Increased ability to carry natural gas liquids
Rich gas toll crediting
Market price sharing option
Reduced credit requirements
2015+ services are being subscribed
New options for receipt and delivery shippers
ACEHub
h
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Unique / Competitive Service Choices
3-10 Years2 Price Tiers
Fixed Rates1-10 YearsFixed RatesFDS
FT-1
FRS
1-10 YearsNegotiatedFixed RatesCanada
U.S.3-10 YearsNegotiatedIndex Based Rates
FDS
CanadaU.S.
FT-1
FT-1
3-10 Years2 Price TiersNegotiated
Fixed Rates
Segmented
IndexBased
FullPath
TitleTransfer
3-10 YearsNegotiated IndexBased Rates
ACEHub
Alliance volumetric tolls converted to energy equivalents@ fixed 41MJ/m 3 (1,100 Btu/cf).
ACEHub
3-10 Years2 Price TiersFixed Rates
FPS
CanadaU.S.
ACEHub
ATP
41
$0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00
Proposed
Current
5-yr Fixed
$/MMBtu
Alliance / Vector
Alberta Field to Dawn Tolls (Dry Gas Basis)
NGTL / TCPL
L f d l h l i i
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Long term fundamentals support the value proposition
AECO-Chicago differential is forecast to widen over the longer term(more supply build for BC LNG, more WCSB rich gas, less attraction to TCPL Mainline)
.00
.40
.80
1.20
1.60
2.00
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
$ / m m
b t u
Alliance ATP to CHI Fixed Toll, incl. fuel
Enbridge fundamentals analysis indicates AECO-CHI differentialwill reach $0.80 by 2017 and continue to widen to 2020
AECO-CHI Differential($0.80 YTD Average for 2013 )
F Additi l D t il
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For Additional Details
For additional details including onhow to participate in the AlliancePrecedent Agreement process visit:www.alliancepipeline.com andclick on the tab
> Post-2015 Capacity
Alliance Toll for ATP to Chicago:$0.64 / mmbtu , excluding fuel
Aux Sable: Rich Gas Value Enhancement
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Aux Sable: Rich Gas Value Enhancement
Rich GasAllianceTrading
PoolAux Sable
ChicagoGas
AllianceReceipt
Zone
Contractedby Producer
AllianceTransmission
Zone
Contracted byLong-haul
Shipper
Aux Sable providescompetitive gas netback
with Alberta market
Aux Sableshares NGL
value
NGLs remain critical to
Natural Gas drilling decisions
Aux Sable is utilizing Rich GasPremium contracts to increaseNGL content
Producers avoid costly field plantinvestment
Provides competitive gas and NGLnetbacks / price transparency
Access to larger / liquid markets
44
Source: Alberta Energy; Aux Sable
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Questions ?
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NEXUS Gas Transmission Overview
New pipeline to connect Appalachian Basinsupply to U.S. Midwest and Dawn markets
Strong development partners - DTE Energy,Enbridge and Spectra
250 mile, large diameter pipeline delivering atleast 1 Bcf/d
In service by November 2017; potential tophase into service
Uses existing infrastructure and utility corridors
Firm path to Dawn Hub with interconnects tomajor markets along the way
Ohio Michigan (DTE Gas, Consumers, Vector) Ontario (Union Dawn, Enbridge
Tecumseh)
47
DTEGas
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48
NEXUS Open Season Review
Open season ran from October 15 November 30, 2012 Received interest and support from producers, LDCs, power generators and industrial customers
Volumes requested exceeded the 1 Bcf/d planned capacity of the pipeline Anchor shipper criteria:
150 Mdth/d volume commitment 15 year contract term
Anchor Shippers Several parties submitted requests that met or exceeded the Anchor shipper criteria Anchor shipper requests alone exceed the 1 Bcf/d planned capacity Split between market and producers
Currently negotiating PAs with the market
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NEXUS Route Update
Main route from M3 Kensington plant, TGPinterconnect, Dominion lateral and TETCOOPEN lateral in Columbiana County OH to DTEGas, Vector and Dawn
Potential laterals to other locations in NE OHand NW PA
Pipeline corridor has been selected 75% of corridor will be co-located to
minimize impacts Community outreach begun along corridor Government Relations campaign in OH & MI
Route to Dawn will use transportation on DTEGas and Vector
Transportation By Others (TBO) minimizesfacilities, environmental impacts and costs
DTE Gas and Vector can both be easilyexpanded with compression or looping
Uses existing international river crossing
49
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50
NEXUS Costs & Schedule
Still on track for $0.60/Dth rate to Michigan and $0.80/Dth rate to Dawn
Planned in service date of November 2017 for the greenfield projectPhased-in project start with bridge capacity from Michigan to Dawn
Currently negotiating PAs with the market Producers need additional time to finalize their development plans in the Northern Utica acreage
Key items over the next 6 months include: Complete PAs with market Secure interest from producers Stakeholder / Landowner Outreach Environmental Assessment Engineering and ROW Refinements Benefit studies for Ohio and Michigan completed Begin preparation for FERC pre-filing
NEXUS is continuing to make progress
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The widening transportation spread is also beingreflected in the forward market
52
January 2, 2013 basis spread
July 24, 2013 basis spread
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Questions?
53
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Natural Gas Market Dynamics
Sesha NarayanOctober 17, 2013 Vector Customer meeting
The U.S. energy landscape continues to be
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The U.S. energy landscape continues to beprofoundly impacted by the growth of shaleproduction
55Source: EIA
U.S. Shale Gas ProductionTrillion Cubic Feet
8.1
3.5
1.00.50.3
2000
+42%CAGR
2012200920062003
U.S. Shale / Tight Oil ProductionMM Barrels per Day
2.0
0.6
0.20.10.2
+47%CAGR
20122009200620032000
2% 3% 5% 17% 34% % ofTotal 3% 3% 4% 12% 32%
Beginning in 2005 and particularly since the shale
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Beginning in 2005 and particularly since the shalerevolution, we have seen a massive decouplingbetween prices for oil and natural gas
56Source: NYMEX
0
5
10
15
20
2002 2004 2006 2010 201220081996 1998 2000
Crude oil (WTI)
Natural gas (Henry Hub)
$ / M M B t u Historically, oil and gas prices
have been tightly linked
Shale revolution
De-Coupling of Crude Oil and Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices
In response to the large spread between liquid and
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In response to the large spread between liquid andgas prices, producers have focused on basins withhigher concentration of condensate and NGLs
571: NGL composite comprised of 42.5% ethane, 27.5% propane, 12.5% natural gasoline, 10% isobutane, and 7.5% butane2: Rig counts from February 2011 September 2013Source: NYMEX, Baker Hughes
0
5
10
15
20
25
201320122011
$/MMBtu
NGL Composite 1
Natural Gas
Crude Oil
Natural Gasoline
Butane
Propane
Ethane
2011 Sep 2013 Petroleum Product Prices2011 2013
2
Change in Rig CountFor key shale basinsHighest Concentration
of Liquids
Lowest Concentrationof Liquids
(49)
(42)
(42)
(9)
7
24
(22)
(122)
(37)
Fayetteville
Haynesville
Barnett (51)
Marcellus
Woodford (31) 11
Utica 2720
Eagle Ford 100149
Bakken
OilGas
V i i h f h d
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Composition ofGas Stream
Variances in the presence of these compoundscan have a profound impact on overall economics
581. For Pioneer, includes lean and rich condensate windows; for Chesapeake, based upon 19 producing wells in wet window; for Range, wet window composition2. After-tax IRR at NYMEX forward curve as of September 25, 2013; average NGL % of crude oil pricing 2013 YTD; crude price of $90/bbl; ethane priced as natural gasSource: DTE analysis
Effective Dry Gas Breakeven Prices
For select shale plays; Assuming 10% after-tax IRR $2.45
$0.40
($3.60)
($5.60)
Eagle Ford(Pioneer) 1
NE Marcellus(Susquehanna County)
Utica(Chesapeake) 1
SW Marcellus(Range Resources) 1
IRR at CurrentForward Curve 2 ~90% ~70% ~60% ~30%
35%
25%
40%
Gas
NGL
Condensate
17%56%
27%
53% 46%
1%
100%
DriestWettest
Th h i hi h l li id h l d t
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The emphasis on higher-value liquids has led toan increase in associated gas production
59Note: 2013 rig count as of 10/4/2013Source: EIA; Baker Hughes; DTE analysis
U.S. Associated Gas Production and Average Annual Oil Rig Count
12
11
9
77
66
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
A s s o c
i a t e d G a s
P r o
d u c t
i o n
( B c
f / d )
2013YTD
13
2012201120102009200820072006
Oi l Ri g
C o un
t
Overall, total natural gas production has managed
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, g p gto increase / remain steady, despite steep declinesin the gas-focused rig count
60Note: 2013 rig count as of 10/4/2013Source: DTE analysis, Baker Hughes
U.S. Natural Gas Production and Gas Rig Count
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
30
0
70
60
50
10
40
20
G a s -F o c u s e d Ri g
C o un
t
N
a t u r a
l G a s
P r o
d u c
t i o n
( B c f
/ d )
2013F
62
2012
66
2011
64
2010
59
2009
57
2008
56
2007
51
2006
54
Shale growth has dramatically altered traditional
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g yflow patterns; U.S. Northeast imports havedeclined as Marcellus production has increased
61Note: Northeast defined as New England (Maine, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont) and Mid-Atlantic (New York, New Jersey, andPennsylvania)Source: DTE GPCM model
11
0
9
1
3
5
7
8
6
4
2
10
LNGRockies
Canada
Gulf Coast
Other
U.S. Northeast Imports versus Marcellus ProductionBcf/d
8
9
0 Apr-2013Jan-2013Oct-2012Jul-2012 Apr-2012Jan-2012Oct-2011Jul-2011 Apr-2011Oct-2010 Jan-2011
10
11
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
MarcellusProduction
In recent years, North American demand has
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y ,grown modestly, growth in the U.S. has been ledby the electric power sector
62Source: EIA; DTE analysis
U.S. Natural Gas DemandBcf/d
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
+1.4%CAGR
2006
Other
Industrial
60
20122008 2010
66
Electric Power
Commercial
Residential
Canada Natural Gas DemandBcf/d
10
0
8
4
2
6
+0.7%CAGR
2006
9.3
20102008
9.8
2012
10%
14%
8%
14%
2%
16%
9%
16%
5%
(24%)
Changesince 06
Change
since 06
Gas demand in the electric power sector has
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pdeclined between 2012 and 2013 as gas priceshave risen
63Source: Bentek
U.S. Natural Gas Power Burn
Bcf/d per month (based upon average daily data)2005-2011 Min / Max Range 20132012
0
5
1015
20
25
30
35
40
P o
w e r
B u r n
( B c f /
d p e r
M o n
t h )
3.33.53.32.82.82.9
2.42.41.9
2.22.52.7
3.63.4
3.63.84.04.23.8
3.33.3
1
2
3
4
5
Aug SepJun Apr May DecMarJan Feb Jul Nov
N a
t u r a
l G a s P r i c e s
( $ / M M B t u )
Oct
Storage inventory has returned to traditional
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levels, retreating from the historical highsexperienced in the spring of 2012
64Source: Bentek
3.0
3.5
2.5
AugMar OctJunFeb
1.0
1.5
0.5
2.0
May Jul Sep0.0
Nov
4.0
AprJan Dec
L - 4
8 G a s
i n S t o r a g e
( T c
f )
2013 Balance2012 Balance
U.S Gas Storage LevelsTcf
2007 - 2011 Min / Max Range
The abundance of shale gas supplies has had a
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The abundance of shale gas supplies has had amaterially adverse effect on storage spreads
65Note: Spreads calculated as December-February (deep winter) average less May October averageSource: NYMEX
Prompt Year Storage Spreads$/MMBtu; Average spreads from August of listed year
$0.35$0.44
$0.55
$0.73
$1.16
$0.99
$1.30
$0.91
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013200820072006
$2.40
2005
2005 2010 Averag e: $1.25
Natural gas prices have increased over the past
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twelve months, generally in line with the forwardcurve from September 2012
66Source: NYMEX
Henry Hub Spot Prices versus NYMEX Futures (from Sep 2012)$/MMBtu
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Nov 2012 Jan 2013 Mar 2013 May 2013Sep 2012 Jul 2013 Sep 2013
NYMEX Futures- Sep 2012
Henry HubSpot Pr ice
The equilibrium price of gas is set by the marginal
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cost of supply of annual new production neededto replace the ~8 9 Bcf/d of natural decline
67Source: DTE Analysis, Wood Mackenzie
An incremental ~8-9 Bcf/dsupply from new wells isneeded each year to makeup for natural productiondecline from existing wells
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
80
70
60
50
40
30
0
Bcf/d
Demand with growthFlat demand
Supply with nonew drilling
Exact amount of annual
replacement neededdepends on existing wellsdecline curves
New supply needed to meetdemand growth isincremental to this (~1 Bcf/d)
Illustrative
Cost of supply is falling as a result of significant
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Cost of supply is falling as a result of significantimprovements in drilling and well productivity
681: Breakeven at 10% after-tax IRRSource: Cabot investor presentations, DTE analysis
Days to Drill Lateral Length (000 Feet)
4.13.83.4
2.7
+52%
2012201120102009
1620
26
32-50%
2012201120102009
$1.85
$3.10
2012
-40%
2009
14.113.211.2
7.8
2012
+81%
201120102009
EUR Estimated Dry Gas Breakeven Price 1
Marcellus Drilling Productivity: Cabot Oil & Gas Example
In the near term, we expect the equilibrium price of
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natural gas to remain in the $3.50 - $4.50 range,driven by the cost of new supply
691. Breakeven calculated at 10% after-tax IRRSource: DTE analysis
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
- 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Bcf/d
Outlook in Early 2012
Breakeven cost of supply1
($/MMBtu)
Natural Gas Equilibrium Pricing
Revised OutlookBased uponContinued
Productivity
Improvement
~$3.50 4.50 / MMBtuequilibrium price
Includes those playswhose breakeven is
below $2
Dry PlaysWet Plays
~8 - 10 Bcf/dnew supply
needed
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U.S. growth will be driven by Utica / Marcellus and
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liquid-rich regions, while conventional supply isforecasted to decline
71Note: Conventional supply also includes coal bed methane and SNGSource: DTE analysis
Woodford
Bakken
Marcellus
Fayetteville
Haynesville /Bossier
Eagle Ford
Utica
Barnett
U.S. Production by BasinBcf/d
50
20
10
60
40
100
90
80
30
70
02030202820262024202220202018201620142012
66
93
Conventional
Other Shale
Fayetteville
Bakken
Woodford
Barnett
Utica
Eagle Ford
Haynesville
Marcellus
12 30 Change (Bcf/d)
+12.7
+2.5
+6.5
+5.1
(0.6)
+2.4
+3.0
+0.4
+0.2
(6.3)
Canadian output will expand as increases in shale
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Canadian output will expand, as increases in shaleoutweigh declines in conventional gas production
72Note: Conventional supply also includes coal bed methaneSource: DTE analysis
Canada Production by BasinBcf/d
12 30 Change (Bcf/d)
+4.9
+2.9
+1.6
(4.0)
6
0
2
10
8
12
22
14
16
18
20
4
2018 20202014 20162012 2026 20282024 2030
15
2022
20
Conventional
Duvernay
Montney
Horn River
Horn River
Montney
Duvernay
Long-term demand growth will be modest, driven
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Long term demand growth will be modest, drivenby electric power and industrial segments
73Source: DTE analysis
U.S. Natural Gas DemandBcf/d
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Industrial
2030
84
20252012
Commercial
70
Other
Electric Power
2015 2020
Residential
+1.1%CAGR
Canada Natural Gas DemandBcf/d
15
10
5
02012
9.9
2030
14.1
202520202015
+2.0%CAGR
13%
16%
11%
16%
97%
72% 17% 12%
57%
37%
Change
from 12
Change
from 12
In addition, electric power demand could increasef h h ld h U S i l b i i
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further should the U.S. implement carbon pricingand / or carbon reduction targets
74Source: DTE analysis
2030 Implications ofCO 2 Reduction Case
Natural gas (1.2 TWh ofgeneration in 2012) would ascendto top electrical power source,responsible for ~40% ofgeneration
Coal (1.5 TWh in 2012) would beimpacted by material coal-to-gasswitching, and would see its shareof generation falling by half to~20%
Renewables (~0.2 TWh in 2012)would experience strong growth,led by wind (~12% of generation)
U.S. Power Sector Natural Gas DemandBcf/d
40
34
30
25
CO2 CaseReference Case:2012
+34%
CO2 Reduction Case:
(20% from 2012 Levels)
2030
No Price onCarbon
Implementationof Carbon Price
Carbon Price +Higher Renewables &Coal-to-Gas Switching
LNG exports are expected to expand, as a host ofj l i li i d
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projects move closer to commercialization andregulatory approval
75Note: Approved indicates non -FTA (Free Trade Agreement) export license approval (U.S.) or NEB application approval (Canada)Source: CERA
Key Proposed / Approved LNG FacilitiesSize of bubble corresponds to size of project; Not exhaustive
Summary of LNG ProjectsBcf/d
Jordan Cove
Lake Charles Exports
Cameron LNG
Sabine Pass
Freeport LNG Main Pass Energy
Prince Rupert (Prince Rupert L NG, Pacif ic Northw est LNG)
Kit imat (Doug las Channel , Kit imat LNG, LNG Canada)
Cove Point
7
5
12
U.S.
49
Proposed
Canada
11
TOTAL
Approved*
16
38
27
34
Equates to 2.0 Bcf/d
Factoring in demand for LNG exports, the WestS h C l d S h A l i i ill
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South Central and South Atlantic regions willexperience the largest demand growth
76Source: DTE analysis
U.S. Lower 48 Natural Gas Demand by RegionBcf/d
2.4
7.8
9.2
4.5
17.4
10.0
4.2
4.9
8.1
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East South Central
West South Central
East North Central
West North Central
Mountain
Pacific
19.6
13.3
3.1
9.7
5.8
12.5
6.4
5.1
7.2
4.0
14.21.0
23.6
Change(+ / - Bcf/d)
(0.8)
0.3
2.2
2.5
6.3
1.25.1
1.9
0.7
2012 2030
LNG Exports
To accommodate the new supply / demandliti t diti l fl t d t
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realities, traditional gas flows are expected toundergo significant changes
77Source: DTE analysis
Overview of Natural Gas Flows: Key Changes from 2012 to 2030
Increasing
Consistent
Decreasing
Mid-Continent
Rockies
Bakken
Utica &Marcellus
GulfCoast
WesternCanada
Overall, prices are expected to increasei t ll ti b t h ld i ll
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incrementally over time, but should remain wellbelow pre-shale levels
78Source: NYMEX (10/11/13); DTE analysis
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
DTE
NYMEX
Actual
2008 2025 Annual Henry Hub Price (Nominal)$/MMBtu
In addition, key producing hubs are expected torem in disco nted rel ti e to Henr H b o er the
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remain discounted relative to Henry Hub over thelong term
79Note: October 11 close date used for spot price and 2015 futuresSource: NYMEX, OTC Global Holdings, CERA
Forward-Looking Basis Differential:Select Gas Hubs
Relative to Henry Hub; $/MMBtu
Hub CurrentSpot Price2015
Futures2020
CERA
AECO (W. Canada) ($0.65) ($0.65) ($0.58)
Chicago $0.00 ($0.10) $0.06
MichCon $0.03 ($0.06) $0.15
Dawn $0.29 $0.09 $0.30
Lebanon $0.01 ($0.26) -
Columbia Appalachia ($0.06) ($0.23) ($0.25)
Dominion South Point ($0.30) ($0.44) -
1
4
5
6
3
2
56
3
Chicago
Dawn
DominionSouth Point
Lebanon
MichCon
ColumbiaAppalachia
1
2
4
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Questions
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Discussion
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