2013 mobile-factbook

2 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved

Mobile Factbook – February 2013

© 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 3


Portio Research Limited.

Published February 2013 by Portio Research Limited © Copyright 2013.

www.portioresearch.com

[email protected]

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Contents

Mobile Subscriber Base .......................................................................................................... 7

Worldwide Mobile Market ..................................................................................................................... 7

Subscriber Base – Worldwide .............................................................................................................. 7

Regional Overview ............................................................................................................................... 8 Half of ‘the mobile world’ is in Asia .................................................................................................... 9

Subscriber Base: Country Forecasts ...................................................................................12

Mobile Handset Shipments ...................................................................................................18

Smartphone Market ................................................................................................................24

Mobile OS Market ...................................................................................................................30

Mobile Installed Base .............................................................................................................34

Appendices .............................................................................................................................42

Glossary ............................................................................................................................................. 43

Portio Research Classifications ......................................................................................................... 48

Also available from Portio Research Limited ..................................................................................... 49



List of Figures

Figure 1: Mobile Subscribers – Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2016F) ............................................... 7 Figure 2: Subscriber Base Growth Rate – Regional (In Percent) ..................................................................... 8 Figure 3: Mobile Subscriber Base – Regional (In Million, 2013F) ..................................................................... 8 Figure 4: Worldwide Mobile Subscriber Base – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F) ... 9 Figure 5: Top 10 Countries by Mobile Subscriber Additions – Worldwide (In Million, End 2011 – End 2016F)...

......................................................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 6: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Worldwide (In Percent, End 2011 – End

2016F) .............................................................................................................................................. 13 Figure 7: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Western Europe (In Percent, End 2011–

End 2016F) ...................................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 8: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Eastern Europe (In Percent, End 2011 –

End 2016F) ...................................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 9: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Asia Pacific (In Percent, End 2011 – End

2016F) .............................................................................................................................................. 14 Figure 10: Top 5 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Latin America (In Percent, End 2011 – End

2016F) .............................................................................................................................................. 15 Figure 11: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Middle East (In Percent, End 2011 – End

2016F) .............................................................................................................................................. 15 Figure 12: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Africa (In Percent, End 2011 – End 2016F)

......................................................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 13: Mobile Handset Shipments – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2016F) ................................................. 18 Figure 14: Handset Shipments and Subscriber Base Growth Rate – Worldwide (In Percent, 2011– 2016F) .... 19 Figure 15: Handset Shipments – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F) .......................... 20 Figure 16: Mobile Handset Shipments – Regional (In Million, 2013F) ............................................................... 21 Figure 17: Regional Dominance – Mobile Handset Vendors (2012F) ................................................................ 22 Figure 18: Handset Shipments & Smartphone Shipments – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2016F) .................. 24 Figure 19: Smartphone Contribution to Handset Shipments – Worldwide (In Percent, 2009 – 2016F) ............. 25 Figure 20: Smartphone Shipments – Growth Rate – Regional (In Percent) .................................................... 25 Figure 21: Smartphone Shipments – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F) ................... 26 Figure 22: Smartphone Shipments – Regional (In Million, 2013F) .................................................................... 27 Figure 23: Regional Dominance – Smartphone Vendors (2012F) ..................................................................... 28 Figure 24: Handset Shipments by Operating Systems – Worldwide (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F) ....... 31 Figure 25: Mobile Installed Base – Worldwide (In Million, 2011 & 2016F) ......................................................... 34 Figure 26: Mobile Installed Base Penetration by Type – Worldwide (In Percent, End 2011 – End 2016F)........ 35 Figure 27: Mobile Installed Base Trend – Worldwide (End 2011 – End 2016F) ................................................ 36 Figure 28: Mobile Installed Base Trend – Europe (End 2011 – End 2016F) ...................................................... 37 Figure 29: Mobile Installed Base Trend – Asia Pacific (End 2011 – End 2016F) ............................................... 37 Figure 30: Mobile Installed Base Trend – North America (End 2011 – End 2016F) .......................................... 38 Figure 31: Mobile Installed Base Trend – Latin America (End 2011 – End 2016F) ........................................... 39 Figure 32: Mobile Installed Base Trend – Middle East & Africa (2011-2016F) .................................................. 40

List of Tables

Table 1: Comparison of Mobile Operating Systems based on Selected Parameters ..................................... 30



Chapter 1 Mobile Subscriber Base



Mobile Subscriber Base

Worldwide Mobile Market

The worldwide mobile market has enjoyed continued significant growth in the past few years.

Worldwide, the overall industry is anticipated to continue its growth phase in the near future.

As the penetration of mobile services rose year-on-year and markets became more saturated, Mobile

Network Operators (MNOs) started to leverage other modes of communication beyond voice (such as

SMS, MMS and Mobile E-mail), in order to stabilise their Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and

strengthen their overall value proposition. In addition, another stream of revenue was simultaneously

explored that included mobile infotainment and entertainment services, such as news updates, games

and music, which became known as Value Added Services (VAS).

Being one of the most dynamic industries, the wireless sector has never been short of innovation. Even

as the overall market was riding on the success of new products – including messaging and VAS,

leading operators started offering other data services and payment services. This move was supported

by mobile handset vendors who launched advanced devices with greater computing power and better

operating systems (OS). As the industry has matured and voice services have become commoditised,

MNOs worldwide switched focus ever more on to mobile data services, mobile app downloads and

mobile payment services.

Subscriber Base – Worldwide

The worldwide mobile subscriber base is expected to reach 6.5 billion by end-2012 taking global mobile

penetration to approximately 92 percent. The subscriber base is forecast to increase at a Compounded

Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.3 percent between 2011 and 2016, to reach nearly 8.5 billion by end-

2016. This growth will be led by markets in Asia Pacific and Africa. The figure below highlights year-on-

year subscriber base growth for the period 2009-2016.

Figure 1: Mobile Subscribers – Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2016F)

Source: Portio Research Ltd.

F – Forecasted

The growth in the mobile subscriber base will be led by markets in Asia Pacific and Africa.

4,660 5,356

5,968 6,512

7,015 7,511

7,997 8,479

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F

Mo

bile

Su

bscri

be

rs

(In

Mill

ion

)

Year

CAGR = 7.3% CAGR = 13.2%



Regional Overview

Africa will witness the fastest subscriber growth with a CAGR of 9.4 percent between 2011 and 2016,

followed by Asia Pacific with a CAGR of 9 percent during the same period. Furthermore, the advanced

markets of North America and Western Europe are approaching saturation, with most of the markets

having close to or more than 100 percent mobile penetration. Regional CAGR (2011-2016) is depicted

in the figure below.

Figure 2: Subscriber Base Growth Rate – Regional (In Percent)


The figure below depicts the estimated mobile subscriber base by region for the end of 2013.

Figure 3: Mobile Subscriber Base – Regional (In Million, 2013F)


F – Forecasted

2.1% 2.4%

9.0%

4.0%

6.0%

7.7%

9.4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

WesternEurope

EasternEurope

Asia Pacific North America Latin America Middle East Africa

CA

GR

20

11

-20

16

(I

n P

erc

en

t)

Year

Worldwide CAGR = 7.3%



Half of ‘the mobile world’ is in Asia

The percentage contribution of the Asia Pacific region to the worldwide mobile subscriber base will

increase from 51.3 percent at end-2012 to 54.3 percent at end-2016; similarly, Africa’s percentage

contribution will increase from 11 percent at end-2012 to 11.9 percent at end-2016. The percentage

contributions of all other regions – bar the Middle East – are expected to decrease continuously over

the same period. The contribution from the Middle East region is expected to remain almost constant.

Figure 4: Worldwide Mobile Subscriber Base – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F)1


F – Forecasted

1 Note: Figures may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding-off errors.

8.0%

8.6%

52.3%

5.6%

10.2%

4.2%

11.2%

North America Latin America Middle East Africa

2013F

8.4% 9.0%

51.3% 5.8%

10.3%

4.2%

11.0%

Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Pacific

2012F

7.0% 7.5%

54.3%

5.1%

9.9%

4.3%

11.9%

2016F



Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2012-2016

Your essential guide to understanding the size, scope and major players of the worldwide mobile industry. Serving as an invaluable guide for those in and outside the mobile space to enable better understanding of the worldwide mobile market, the third edition of this detailed and comprehensively updated handbook offers you all the essential market data required for business strategy and planning purposes, including: in-depth subscriber growth forecasts for leading countries, subscriber figures for key network operators across all major geographies, market share data, quarterly handset shipment figures, handset and infrastructure vendor profiles, analysis of popular handsets/smartphones, ARPU data, churn figures and so much more. This essential 192-page market report will act as a touchstone to refer back to again and again for meetings, presentations and business plans. Please click here for more details.

http://www.portioresearch.com/en/reports/current-portfolio/worldwide-mobile-industry-handbook-2012-2016.aspx



Chapter 2 Subscriber Base: Country Forecasts



Subscriber Base: Country Forecasts

The Top 10 countries worldwide, by mobile subscriber additions over FY 2011 to FY 2016, will be

adding 1,807 million mobile subscribers over the next five years. This is equivalent to 72 percent of the

total subscriber additions worldwide over that period.

Figure 5: Top 10 Countries by Mobile Subscriber Additions – Worldwide (In Million, End 2011 – End 2016F)


F – Forecasted

633.4

534.7

108.5 108.3 94.8 78.8 71.0 65.0 57.1 55.1

0

200

400

600

800

Chin

a

India

Indonesia

Bra

zil

Eg

ypt

Pa

kis

tan

Th

e U

S

Ba

ngla

desh

Nig

eria

Iran

Mo

bile

Su

bscri

be

r A

dd

itio

ns

(In

Mill

ion

)

Country



Countries from Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa are among the Top 10 emerging markets with

high CAGRs; Egypt, Oman and Sudan are the Top 3 fastest growing mobile markets worldwide based

on this 2011-2016 metric.

Figure 6: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Worldwide (In Percent, End 2011 – End

2016F)


F – Forecasted

The French market is expected to have a mobile subscriber base of 87.3 million by end-2016, indicating

a CAGR of 4.9 percent between 2011 and 2016 – the highest CAGR in the Western European region.

Adjacent to France, during the period end-2011 to end-2016, the UK is expected to witness the lowest

growth – of just 0.6 percent.

Figure 7: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Western Europe (In Percent, End 2011–

End 2016F)


F – Forecasted

16.71

14.60

12.23 11.99 11.24 11.18 11.17 10.52 10.05 9.85

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Eg

ypt

Om

an

Su

dan

Ba

ngla

desh

Mo

zam

biq

ue

Iran

Pa

kis

tan

Chin

a

Uganda

Nig

eria

CA

GR

(In

Pe

rce

nt)

Country

4.9%

4.4% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 3.4%

3.0% 2.9% 2.8%

2.1%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Fra

nce

Au

str

ia

Fin

lan

d

Irela

nd

Sw

eden

Denm

ark

Th

e N

eth

erlan

ds

Be

lgiu

m

Sw

itzerlan

d

Norw

ay

CA

GR

(In

Pe

rce

nt)

Country



Greece is expected to lead the Eastern European region in terms of subscriber growth, with a CAGR

of 5.9 percent between 2011 and 2016, followed by Belarus (5.6 percent) and Poland (4.3 percent).

Figure 8: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Eastern Europe (In Percent, End 2011 –

End 2016F)


F – Forecasted

Asia Pacific: Over the period Year-end 2011 to Year-end 2016, Bangladesh’s mobile market will grow

fastest. The subscriber base in the country stood at 85.5 million at end-2011, and will reach 150.5

million by end-2016. Pakistan will achieve the second largest 2011-2016 CAGR rate with 11.2 percent.

In CAGR terms, third and fourth placed China and India will grow at respective rates of 10.5 and 9.8

percent. This is shown in the figure below.

Figure 9: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Asia Pacific (In Percent, End 2011 – End

2016F)


F – Forecasted

5.9% 5.6%

4.3% 4.3% 4.2%

3.2% 2.7%

1.8% 1.7% 1.6%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Greece Belarus Poland Turkey Bulgaria Slovakia Hungary Croatia Serbia Romania

CA

GR

(In

Pe

rce

nt)

Country

12.0% 11.2%

10.5% 9.8% 9.4%

8.5% 7.5% 6.9%

4.8% 4.3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Ba

ngla

desh

Pa

kis

tan

Chin

a

India

Afg

hanis

tan

Th

e P

hili

pp

ines

Indonesia

Ka

zakhsta

n

Jap

an

Th

aila

nd

CA

GR

(In

Pe

rce

nt)

Country



North America: It is expected that the mobile market of Canada and The US will witness a CAGR of

4.7 and 4.0 percent respectively during the period end-2011 to end-2016.

In the case of Latin America, pole positioned Brazil and second place Peru will lead their peers in

terms of subscriber base growth rate. The Brazilian mobile market is expecting a growth rate of 7.6

percent over the period 2011-2016; while Peru should achieve 7 percent during the same period.

Figure 10: Top 5 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Latin America (In Percent, End 2011 – End

2016F)


F – Forecasted

Growth of mobile subscribers in the Middle East during the period end-2011 to end-2016 is expected to

be half of the growth witnessed during the period 2009 to 2011. The mobile subscriber base of the

region is expected to increase at a CAGR of 7.7 percent during 2011-2016. Iran and Saudi Arabia are

expected to continue their dominance as the largest overall markets over the period 2011-2016.

Figure 11: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Middle East (In Percent, End 2011 – End

2016F)


F – Forecasted

7.6% 7.0%

5.9% 5.7% 5.3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

Brazil Peru Chile Colombia Argentina

CA

GR

(In

Pe

rce

nt)

Country

14.6%

11.2%

6.8% 5.2% 5.1%

4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Oman Iran Jordan Syria Iraq Kuwait SaudiArabia

The UAE Qatar Israel

CA

GR

(In

Pe

rce

nt)

Country



Africa: Egypt and Sudan will grow at the fastest pace during the period 2011-2016 registering CAGRs

of 16.7 percent and 12.2 percent respectively.

Figure 12: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Africa (In Percent, End 2011 – End 2016F)


F – Forecasted

16.7%

12.2% 11.2%

10.1% 9.9% 9.8% 9.5% 9.4% 9.0% 8.9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Egypt Sudan Mozambique Uganda Nigeria DR of Congo Angola Tanzania Kenya Ghana

CA

GR

(In

Pe

rce

nt)

Country

Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2012-2016

Your essential guide to understanding the size, scope and major players of the worldwide mobile industry. Serving as an invaluable guide for those in and outside the mobile space to enable better understanding of the worldwide mobile market, the third edition of this detailed and comprehensively updated handbook offers you all the essential market data required for business strategy and planning purposes, including: in-depth subscriber growth forecasts for leading countries, subscriber figures for key network operators across all major geographies, market share data, quarterly handset shipment figures, handset and infrastructure vendor profiles, analysis of popular handsets/smartphones, ARPU data, churn figures and so much more. This essential 192-page market report will act as a touchstone to refer back to again and again for meetings, presentations and business plans. Please click here for more details.

http://www.portioresearch.com/en/reports/current-portfolio/worldwide-mobile-industry-handbook-2012-2016.aspx



Chapter 3 Mobile Handset Shipments



Mobile Handset Shipments

Over the period from the end of 2009 to the end of 2011, annual worldwide handset shipments enjoyed

significant growth. The overall handset market saw a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of

15.3 percent during this period and total handset shipments reached 1.5 billion in full year 2011.

The two key factors that led to this growth were:

An increase in mobile penetration in emerging markets

Growing popularity of many new smartphones

The figure below shows total handset shipments for the period 2009 to 2016.

Figure 13: Mobile Handset Shipments – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2016F)


F – Forecasted

The mobile handset industry is expected to continue its growth phase in the foreseeable future. The

overall market will grow at a CAGR of 6.8 percent during the period 2011-2016 and the number of

shipments will cross 2 billion in the year 2015. Overall handset shipments are expected to reach 2.1

billion in the year 2016.

Based on the mobile handset shipments during the period 2011-2016, regions can be classified into two

clusters – Replacement Markets and Growth Markets. Replacement markets include the geographies

wherein handset replacements will drive shipments growth, while in growth markets the increase in

subscriber penetration will lead to an increase in total handset shipments. This is shown in the figure

below.

1,166

1,375 1,549

1,674 1,819

1,947 2,056

2,148

200

700

1,200

1,700

2,200

2,700

2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F

Mo

bile

Ha

nd

se

t S

hip

me

nts

(I

n M

illio

n)

Year



Figure 14: Handset Shipments and Subscriber Base Growth Rate – Worldwide (In Percent, 2011– 2016F)


F – Forecasted

In 2012, the Asia Pacific region, quite unsurprisingly, contributed the most to worldwide handset

shipments with 42.5 percent share. It was followed by North America with 12.5 percent share.

With the increasing mobile subscriber base and rise in the handset replacement rate it is anticipated

that the Asia Pacific region will strengthen its position as the overall largest region for handset

shipments. Nearly 43 percent of worldwide total shipments will be in the Asia Pacific region in the year

2016. Conversely, the contribution of the more saturated European and North American regions will

decline during the period 2011-2016 whereas it will increase for the Middle East and Africa.

3.8% 4.4% 4.6%

6.8% 7.0% 7.7%

11.6% 11.1%

2.1% 2.4%

4.0%

7.3%

9.0%

6.0%

7.7%

9.4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

WesternEurope

EasternEurope

NorthAmerica

Worldwide Asia Pacific Latin America Middle East Africa

Gro

wth

Ra

te

(In

Pe

rce

nt)

Region

Handset Shipments Subscriber Base

Replacement Markets

Growth Markets



Regional contributions for the years 2012, 2013 and 2016 are shown in the figure below.

Figure 15: Handset Shipments – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F)2


F – Forecasted


10.9%

8.3%

44.0%

12.2%

12.0%

4.5% 8.1%


2013F

11.3% 8.7%

42.5% 12.5%

12.2%

4.6% 8.1%


2012F

10.2%

7.9%

43.1% 11.6%

12.2%

5.0% 9.9%

2016F



It is expected that total handset shipments in the Asia Pacific region will be 801 million in full year 2013.

Also this year, North America is expected to see 222 million handset shipments closely followed by

Latin America with 218 million handset shipments. The figure 16 depicts the mobile handset shipments

by region for the year 2013.

Figure 16: Mobile Handset Shipments – Regional (In Million, 2013F)


F – Forecasted



According to our forecasts, Nokia dominated shipments in four out of seven of the regions in terms of

highest overall handset shipments in 2012. Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa were

all led by Nokia. The remaining three regions North America, Latin America and Western Europe were

largely led by Samsung as #1 vendor. This is shown in Figure 17 below.

Figure 17: Regional Dominance – Mobile Handset Vendors (2012F)


F – Forecasted

Smartphone Futures 2012-2016

The smartphone business has been the single biggest revenue generating growth-story over the last 4 years as the rest of the tech sector suffers amid this seemingly endless recession. Subscriber growth has slowed dramatically in saturated markets, voice and text have reach commodity pricing and margins are constantly squeezed hard under consumer pressure, yet around the world the appetite for new smartphones continues to gain pace. Continuing to redefine the handset business, smartphones are fast becoming the device of choice for hundreds of millions of consumers, and 2012 is the year that worldwide smartphone shipments will top half a billion in one year. In this report you will learn that smartphone shipments reached 485 million in 2011, and that number will top 655 million in 2012, rising to over 1 billion smartphones per year by 2016. Please click here for more details.

http://www.portioresearch.com/en/reports/current-portfolio/smartphone-futures-2012-2016.aspx



Chapter 4 Smartphone Market



Smartphone Market

Worldwide smartphone shipments will reach 1,095 million by 2016 and account for 51 percent of total

handset shipments. The figure below compares total handset shipments with smartphone shipments

year-on-year.

Figure 18: Handset Shipments & Smartphone Shipments – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2016F)


F – Forecasted

The increasing penetration of smartphones is beneficial for both MNOs and handset vendors.

Obviously, the popularity of smartphones has boosted handset vendor finances considerably over

recent years. The widespread migration of subscribers from feature phones and basic handsets to

smartphones has helped the handset vendors generate vast new revenue flows. It also helps the MNOs

lure subscribers form prepaid to postpaid deals, and on to data bundles, all of which strengthens ARPU

and reduces churn. .

Smartphone shipments as a percentage of worldwide handset shipments are highlighted in the figure

below. Based on current forecasts, smartphones will pass the 50% mark to account for the majority of

worldwide handset shipments by the end of 2016.

1,166 1,375

1,549 1,674 1,819

1,947 2,056

2,148

175 296

485 655 752

858 968

1,095

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F

Sh

ipm

en

ts

(In

Mill

ion

)

Year

Handset Shipments Smartphone Shipments



Figure 19: Smartphone Contribution to Handset Shipments – Worldwide (In Percent, 2009 – 2016F)


F – Forecasted

Smartphone shipments in Africa are expected to grow at the fastest rate over the 2011-2016 period. It

is anticipated that the African market will grow at a CAGR of 38.6 percent. During the same period the

second highest growth rate will be observed in Eastern Europe (26.2 percent). This is shown in the

figure below.

Figure 20: Smartphone Shipments – Growth Rate – Regional (In Percent)


The Asia Pacific region is the largest Smartphone market with more than one-third contribution to the

overall worldwide smartphone market. This trend is expected to continue on to 2016.

15.0%

21.5%

31.3%

39.1% 41.3%

44.1% 47.1%

51.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F

Sm

art

ph

on

e C

on

trib

utio

n

(In

Pe

rce

nt)

Year

9.5%

26.2%

20.2%

9.1%

23.6% 23.9%

38.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

WesternEurope

EasternEurope

Asia Pacific North America Latin America Middle East Africa

CA

GR

20

11

-20

16

(I

n P

erc

en

t)

Year

High Growth Phase

Moderate Growth Phase

Worldwide CAGR = 7.3%



The figure below depicts the region-wise share of worldwide Smartphone Shipments for the years 2012,

2103 and 2016.

Figure 21: Smartphone Shipments – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F)3


F – Forecasted


17.9% 4.7%

40.2%

20.0%

8.5% 4.1%

4.7%


2013F

19.4%

5.1%

38.3% 21.4%

8.0% 4.0%

3.8%


2012F

14.0%

7.0%

42.3%

16.0%

8.0% 4.9%

7.7%

2016F



It is expected that more than 300 million smartphones will be shipped to the Asia Pacific region this

year (2013). During the same year North America is expected to witness 150 million smartphone

shipments.

Figure 22, below, depicts the smartphone shipments by region for 2013.

Figure 22: Smartphone Shipments – Regional (In Million, 2013F)


F – Forecasted



The figure below highlights the key leading smartphone vendors in each region.

Figure 23: Regional Dominance – Smartphone Vendors (2012F)


F – Forecasted






Chapter 5 Mobile OS Market



Mobile OS Market

The table below scores the major mobile operating systems on a selection of key parameters.

Table 1: Comparison of Mobile Operating Systems based on Selected Parameters4

Parameters BB OS iOS Android

Design & Hardware

(Choice &

Availability)

Pricing

Global Presence

Consumer Segment

Popularity

Enterprise Segment

Popularity

Handset Vendor

Partnerships

Application Stores

Total Market Impact

Score

(Out of 28)

21 18 26


Android handsets accounted for 60.5 percent of the total smartphone shipments in the year 2012

worldwide. The corresponding figure is expected to drop marginally and reach 57.4 percent this year, in

2013. We forecast that Android will continue to dominate the market in the near future and maintain its

global market share at around 57percent through to 2016. The figure below shows this trend for the

years 2012, 2013 and 2016.

4 Note: Total Score for an OS has been calculated by summing up the scores indicated by the number of orange-colored quarters

for all parameters. For example, iOS scores two on the ‘Pricing’ parameter and four on the ‘Application Stores’ parameter.



Figure 24: Handset Shipments by Operating Systems – Worldwide (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F)5


F – Forecasted


57.4% 19.9%

5.3%

6.9% 6.0%

4.4%

BB OS Windows Others

2013F

60.5%

21.2%

5.6%

7.5% 4.6%

0.6%

Andriod Apple iOS Symbian

2012F

57.5% 15.6%

3.6%

5.6%

12.6%

5.1%

2016F








Chapter 6 Mobile Installed Base



Mobile Installed Base

It is estimated that the number of smartphone users worldwide will cross the 3-billion mark by 2016, up

from 770 million as at the end of 2011. However, non-smartphone users will continue to overshadow

smartphone users year-on-year. While the number of new smartphones shipped every year are stealing

a march over those for the non-smartphone category, the installed base of non-smartphones is still

significant, and cannot be overlooked by players in the wireless ecosystem.

Figure 25: Mobile Installed Base – Worldwide (In Million, 2011 & 2016F)


F – Forecast

Smartphone users constituted only 12.9 percent of the total mobile user base at the end of 2011. This

figure increased to 17.4 percent at the end of 2012. Looking forward, by the end of 2016, smartphone

users will constitute more than one-third of the subscriber base; while close to 64 percent of worldwide

subscribers will still not be using smartphones.

The figure below shows the mobile installed base for the period end-2011 to end-2016. The non-

smartphone installed base will constitute around 64 percent of the worldwide mobile installed base at

the end of year 2016.



Figure 26: Mobile Installed Base Penetration by Type – Worldwide (In Percent, End 2011 – End 2016F)


E – Estimated , F – Forecast

Between 2013 and the end of 2016, in Europe, North America and Latin America, we expect to see a

decline in the installed base of non-smartphones. On the other hand, in the Asia Pacific region, and in

the Middle East and Africa regions we expect to see a rise in the number of non-smartphone handset

users. Of course, it is worth repeating, ALL regions will see a substantial rise in smartphone users.

87.1% 82.6% 77.8% 73.0% 68.2% 63.8%

12.9% 17.4% 22.2% 27.0% 31.8% 36.2%

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At the end of 2016, non-smartphones are expected to continue to be an important category on account

of the sheer size of the market. This highlights the fact that the players – VAS vendors, MNOs and

handset vendors – must continue to support and enlarge their product portfolio for both the smartphone

and non-smartphone segments.

Figure 27: Mobile Installed Base Trend – Worldwide (End 2011 – End 2016F)



Figure 28: As smartphone penetration increases, so non-smartphone penetration decreases, and the

size of the worldwide smartphone installed base grows. Smartphones are expected to dominate Europe

after 2015. This is shown in the figure below.

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Bubble Area represents Smartphone Installed Base Worldwide



Figure 28: Mobile Installed Base Trend – Europe (End 2011 – End 2016F)



Non-smartphones are expected to be the dominant devices in the vast Asia Pacific region until after the

end of 2016 and beyond.

Figure 29: Mobile Installed Base Trend – Asia Pacific (End 2011 – End 2016F)



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In North America, smartphones are expected to dominate after 2013, as shown in the figure below.

Figure 30: Mobile Installed Base Trend – North America (End 2011 – End 2016F)



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Bubble Area represents Smartphone Installed Bas in the Region



Non-smartphones are expected to continue to be the dominant category in Latin America until after the

end of 2016.

Figure 31: Mobile Installed Base Trend – Latin America (End 2011 – End 2016F)



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As shown below, non-smartphones will dominate in the Middle East & Africa until after end-2016.

Figure 32: Mobile Installed Base Trend – Middle East & Africa (2011-2016F)



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2011 2012E 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F


Worldwide Mobile Handset Installed Base 2012-2016

Analysing and segmenting the worldwide installed base of smartphones and non-smartphones from 2011 through 2016. Published 28th November 2012 This new market report offers you insight into the size of the installed base of mobile handsets around the world. Broken out by major geographical region, and for a number of specific countries, this report offers details on the number of active Smartphones in use around the world, and the number of active Non-Smartphones in use around the world. With full forecasts through 2016.Most research studies report on handset shipments, which we offer in our Smartphone Futures 2012-2016 report. This report however, offers you essential and valuable data on the size of the cumulative total installed base of devices in operation worldwide. Please click here for more details.

http://www.portioresearch.com/en/reports/current-portfolio/worldwide-mobile-handset-installed-base-2012-2016.aspx



Chapter 7 Appendices



Appendices

This market study has been written in a way that avoids excessive use of market acronyms (except

where appropriate) and industry technical talk, as we have tried to keep the text open to all readers, not

just those with in-depth knowledge of the world’s mobile markets. Because this study covers all

geographical regions and many emerging markets, a great deal of the data contained within this study

will potentially be of interest to investors, financial analysts, consultants, venture capitalists and others

all around the world who do not work within the mobile industry itself every day of their lives. To many

of these people, some of the industry technical talk and acronyms may be confusing, so we have

attempted to write this study in a self-explanatory way that assumes little prior knowledge, but in doing

this, some of the speech chosen may seem somewhat "obvious" to our more knowledgeable readers.

We hope this offers the best possible solution to everyone, and we hope this does not cause any

confusion or inconvenience.

Where we have used technical terms or acronyms, we offer an explanation of those expressions below.



Glossary

3G or third generation

3G is an International Telecommunication Union (ITU) specification for the third generation (analog

cellular was the first generation and digital PCS6 was the second generation) of mobile communication

technology.

Third generation Wireless Wide Area Networks (WWAN) communication systems are characterised by

high-speed data rates (144 Kbps7 to 2+ Mbps8) suitable for multimedia content. 3G technologies

typically are packet-switched and use Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) technology to

communicate. Examples of 3G include EDGE9, 1xRTT, HDR and W-CDMA.10

3G protocols in mobile telephony support higher data transmission rates, measured in Mbps, intended

for applications other than voice. 3G support broadband and bandwidth applications, such as full-

motion video, video conferencing and Internet access.

3G as a Percentage

3G as a percentage refers to 3G subscribers as a percentage of total active mobile subscribers in a

country. This represents the proportion of 3G subscribers in the total mobile subscriber base of a

country.

3G Penetration

3G penetration refers to 3G subscribers as a percentage of total population of the country. This is

similar to the term ‘mobile penetration’, which means total number of active mobile subscribers in a

country as a percentage of total population of the country.

4G or fourth generation

4G or fourth generation WWAN communication systems are characterised by high-speed data rates at

20+ Mbps, suitable for high-resolution movies and television. The initial deployment of 4G

communication systems is expected in 2006-2010. The proposed features of these systems include

100 Mbps speed, location sensing and self-tailoring to user needs.

A2P

Application-to-Peer: In the mobile messaging world A2P messages are defined as messages generated

by an application and sent to subscribers, for example, the advertisements sent through SMS/MMS on

subscribers’ handsets.

Application Programming Interface (API)

It is an interface implemented by a software program to communicate with other software. Operating

systems and applications use API to determine the way to call or send requests to other software.

Augmented Reality (AR)

Augmented reality is the superimposition of virtual content over the real time environment. Virtual

content includes digital graphics, audio and other sense enhancements, which are augmented to the

real world by an AR device.

6 Personal Communications Service (PCS)

7 Kilobits per second (Kbps)

8 Megabits per second (Mbps)

9 Enhanced Data for Global Evolution (EDGE)

10 Wideband Code Division Multiple Access (W-CDMA)



Average Revenue per User (ARPU)

Measures the average monthly revenue generated for each customer unit, such as a handset or pager

that an operator has in operation.

Backhaul

It refers to the process of transmitting voice and data traffic from a remote site to a central site.

Churn Rate

It is the rate at which the subscribers cancel their subscription with the existing operator and sign up

with another operator.

Cloud Computing

Cloud computing is a technology involved in delivering hosted services on the Internet. It is based on

client-server architecture, which includes user device with applications (such as Web browsers) to

access the back end (various components, such as data storage devices, servers, etc.). The back end

components perform specific tasks and interact with each other through standard application

programming interfaces.

Dongle

Dongle is a portable device which is connected to a laptop or desktop and resembles a USB flash drive.

It is widely used as a wireless broadband adapter.

Dumb Pipes

Dumb pipe refers to a mobile operator’s wireless network being used only to transfer data/bytes

between the Internet and the user’s device. For an operator being a dumb pipe, there is a potential loss

of revenue for the operator, since the operator is generating revenue only for the network data access

and is not receiving any significant share in data/content service revenue.

Facebook Penetration

It is the Facebook user base expressed as a percentage of the total population of the country.

Feature Phone

Feature phones are handsets with browsers (primarily based on embedded J2ME and BREW

platforms) to enable access to web based e-mail, and sometimes have embedded applications for

social networking, instant messaging (IM) and mobile banking. These phones often come with high

resolution cameras, GPS and innovative multimedia features. The major differentiating factor between a

smartphone and a feature phone is that feature phones do not have an open Operating System (OS).

The OS present in smartphones, through its Application Programming Interface (API), enables

subscribers to install and remove third-party applications. Smartphones are better integrated with the

handset's User Interface than Java applications.

Freemium

Freemium is a strategy adopted by application stores in which trial or lite versions of premium apps are

offered for free or for a small charge; and users have an option to upgrade the apps with additional

features by paying additional charges.

GUI

Graphical User Interface (GUI) is the front-end interface and navigation design of an application. This

includes standard formats for representing text and graphics. GUIs have become the standard ways for

interaction between users and digital devices.



i-mode

i-mode is a proprietary packet-based information service for mobile handsets. It delivers information

(such as mobile banking, and train timetable) to handsets and enables exchange of e-mail from mobile

handsets on the PDC-P network. Launched in 1999 by NTT DOCOMO, i-mode is very popular in Japan

(especially for e-mail and transfer of icons).

IMS

IMS IP Multimedia Subsystem is an extension of the GSM / 3GPP GPRS core Network. It uses SIP

(Session Initiation Protocol) to set up, maintain and terminate packet-switched voice and multimedia

sessions.

Interoperability

This is defined as the ability of a network to operate with other networks, such as two systems based on

different protocols or technologies.

In-app Payment

In-app payment is the payment made by mobile user to get privileged features, services or digital goods

while using mobile apps. The privileged feature may be moving from a free or lite version of an app to

the full version.

Instant Messaging (IM)

Instant Messaging is an Internet-based service that alerts users when their friends or colleagues are

online and allows them to communicate with each other in real-time through private online chat areas.

With instant messaging, users create a list of other users with whom they want to communicate. When

a user from their list is online, the service alerts them and enables an immediate contact with the other

user. While instant messaging has primarily been a proprietary service offered by Internet service

providers such as AOL and MSN, businesses are starting to employ instant messaging to increase

employee efficiency and make expertise more readily available to employees.

LTE

Long-Term Evolution (LTE) is the standard being developed by 3GPP to achieve download rates of

100Mbps, and upload rates of 50Mbps for every 20MHz of spectrum and is termed as a 4G standard.

LTE has support for bandwidths ranging from 1.25MHz to 20MHz.

M2M

Machine-to-Machine: M2M generally means the communication between machines. However, in the

mobile world, it is sometimes defined as Mobile-to-Mobile, which basically refers to communication that

involves only mobiles and not landlines.

MNO

Mobile Network Operator.

MNO market penetration

It is the mobile subscriber base of an MNO expressed as a percentage of total population of the country

of operation.

Mobile Internet Penetration

Mobile Internet Penetration is described as mobile Internet users (of the specified market or region) as

a percentage of the specified market or region’s mobile subscriber base.



Mobile penetration

It is the mobile subscriber base in a country expressed as a percentage of its total population.

Native Apps

Native apps are mobile applications developed specifically to run on a particular operating system or

device.

Near Field Communication

Near Field Communication (NFC) is a wireless communication technology which uses short-range high

frequency to enable the exchange of data between devices in proximity with each other. The distance

between the communicating devices has to be less than 10 centimetres. NFC-capable devices can

communicate with smartcard readers as well as other NFC-capable devices.

Over-the-Top Services

Over-the-Top services refer to those services which are available to users over mobile networks without

MNOs being involved in planning, provisioning and selling them.Within the mobile industry, OTT

services are interchangably referred to as next generation services.

P2P

Peer-to-Peer: In the mobile messaging world, P2P messages are defined as messages exchanged

between subscribers. These messages originate from and terminate to mobile subscribers’ handsets.

SDK

Software Development Kit is a set of tools used for the development of an application for a software

package.

Service Revenue

Service revenues are the revenues earned by MNOs through the provision of services only, i.e.

revenues after deducting revenues earned from sales of equipment/products.

Smartphone

A smartphone is a mobile handset which runs on operating system (OS) software and offers some of

the capabilities of a PC. It provides a standardised interface and platform for application developers and

is enabled with advanced features, such as e-mail, Internet and an e-book reader. Some of the other

features expected from a smartphone include built-in full keyboard/external USB keyboard, powerful

microprocessors, memory, built-in modem and large screens. The major differentiating factor between a

smartphone and a feature phone is that an open Operating System (OS) is present in a smartphone.

The OS, through its Application Programming Interface (API), enables subscribers to install and remove

third-party applications. Smartphones are better integrated with the handset's User Interface than Java

applications.


Smartphone penetration is described as smartphone users (of the specified market or region) as a

percentage of the specified market or region's mobile subscriber base.

USSD

Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) is a standard for transmitting information over GSM

networks. It is primarily used to access the information on prepaid balances and similar details.



VAS

Mobile operators offer various services which are not part of the basic voice offer. These services are

availed off separately by the mobile subscribers. It includes services such as SMS, MMS, mobile e-

mail, mobile games, mobile music etc. These also include services such as WAP, voicemail, call

diversion, etc.

W-CDMA

Wideband Code Division Multiple Access: The third generation standard offered to the International

Telecommunication Union by GSM proponents. This is a 3G technology that increases data

transmission rates in GSM systems by using CDMA instead of TDMA.

W-CDMA has become the Direct Sequence mode in the ITU's 3G specification which includes the 1x

Multi-Carrier mode (1x MC) and 3x Multi-Carrier mode (3x MC). 1x MC (formerly known as cdma2000)

and 3x MC comprise the 3G upgrade paths for operators already using CDMA.

Wi-Fi

Wireless Fidelity: It is used to provide wireless local area network through enhanced interoperability of

the network. Services such as Internet, VoIP phone access, and gaming, etc., can be provided using

Wi-Fi.



Portio Research Classifications

Geographical Regions:

There is sometimes a difference in the way research firms classify the major geographical territories. At

Portio Research, we follow 'obvious' geographical lines, but for the record, here are the regional

definitions we follow, unless otherwise stated in the report:

Western Europe: Standard classification includes Iceland and various islands

Central and Eastern Europe: Includes standard list of Central and Eastern European countries, and

the Baltic states, Balkans, Russia, Greece and Turkey

Asia Pacific: Includes Australasia, the Indian Sub-Continent, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka,

Maldives and the Former Soviet Union Central Asian republics

North America: Standard classification, including Hawaii and islands to the North

Latin America: Includes all South and Central American countries including Mexico, The Caribbean

and The West Indies

Middle East: Includes Israel and all Middle Eastern countries East of Egypt, South of Turkey and West

of Afghanistan

Africa: Standard classification includes territories in Western Indian Ocean

Mobile Subscribers

Generally, we count active SIMs, and we consider active as being used within 3 months, but, of course

there is some room for variance, depending on what figures operators themselves publish or report to

us when we interview them. When running spot-checks on operator numbers, we are governed by the

figures they give us, and as we are all aware, many individuals and companies around the world count

their subscribers/subscriptions by a number of different criteria. We refer to "total subscribers" for a

network/country or globally, as a count of the total number of active subscriptions those networks have,

and as such this can cause a slight distortion of any country-penetration rate.

Currency and Monetary Values

All monetary values quoted in this report are in US Dollars as the most widely recognised benchmark

internationally. The currency conversion has been done on the year average basis.

Whilst researching global mobile markets, we use http://www.xe.com for all currency conversion

calculations.



Also available from Portio Research Limited

Portio Research Ltd is a UK-based research company focussing on the mobile space, providing

reports, handbooks, directories and database products.

If you have any questions or if we can be of any assistance to you, please contact us by e-mail:

[email protected]

Mobile Applications Futures 2013-2017

Analysis and Growth Forecasts for the Worldwide Mobile Applications Market

The apps business has finally ‘come of age’ and this worldwide success story is now growing fast. Apps generated an impressive USD 12 billion in full-year 2012, and in total 46 billion apps were downloaded in the year, taking the cumulative all-time total downloads since the app game began, to 83 billion. That is certainly a market in rapid growth, just look at those numbers again. The all-time cumulative total number of downloads stood at 37 billion at the end of 2011, but reached 83 billion by the end of 2012, more than doubling in one year. So in 2012, more apps were downloaded that in the previous 5 years all added together.

Market doubling in 2013

This doubling is forecast to happen again in 2013. Our new forecasts show that 2013 will see 82 billion apps downloaded worldwide, taking the cumulative total to 165 billion apps by the end of the year. Revenues are set for ‘space rocket’ growth too, after 2012 saw full-year app revenues of USD 12 billion, in 2013 we forecast worldwide app revenues to reach USD 20.4 billion.

From this doubling of the apps business in 2013, we forecast that downloads will continue to grow to exceed 200 billion per year by the end of full year 2017, and revenues in 2017 will reach 63.5 billion US dollars.

This is impressive growth. While worldwide the mobile subscriber base is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 4.8 percent over the period 2012 to 2017, and annual handset shipments are expected to increase at a CAGR of 6.6 percent over the same time frame, apps downloads are forecast to grow at 35.9 percent CAGR.

So what is driving this rapid growth in downloads?

Our data shows that in mature markets, usage of apps per person is starting to level off, in Europe and North America, the number of apps downloaded per person is reaching a stable level. What’s driving the growth in the app download business is the rapid growth in smartphone and tablet sales. Smartphone shipments worldwide are expected to reach 823 million this year, in 2013. Smartphones accounted for around 41 percent of total handset shipments during 2012. This figure is expected to reach 46 percent during 2013, and more than half (56 percent) of total handset shipments will be smartphones by 2017. From 680 million smartphones shipped in 2012, we expect to see 1296 smartphones shipped in 2017, almost double the number.

Similarly, tablet sales are enjoying explosive growth now. Tablet shipments are forecast to average a CAGR of 24 percent over the period 2012-2017, rising from 2012 shipments of 136 million, to 2013 shipments of 208 million, going on to 2017 shipments of 398 million devices. Due to this rapid growth in smartphone and tablet sales, we forecast that over the period 2012-2017, the number of apps users will grow at a CAGR of 29.8 percent, to reach 4.4 billion users by the end of 2017, 4 times as many apps users as there are today.

This detailed new report explores all these issues, and delivers all these forecasts for each year to 2017, all in great detail to help you understand this massive growth opportunity.

Please click here for more details.


http://www.portioresearch.com/en/reports/current-portfolio/mobile-applications-futures-2013-2017.aspx

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