©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. ENERGY DISPUTES & INVESTIGATIONS ECONOMICS FINANCIAL ADVISORY...

©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc.

E N E R G Y

DI SPUTES & I NVEST I G ATI ONS • ECONO MI CS • F I NANCI AL ADVI SORY • MANAGEMENT CONSULT I NG

May 14, 2013

CPUC Potentials, Goals and Targets (PGT) Study Update

Presentation to the Demand Analysis Working Group (DAWG) of Preliminary Results

Navigant Reference: 150283

2©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. E N E R G Y

Content of Report

This presentation was prepared by Navigant Consulting, Inc. exclusively for the benefit and internal use of the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) and/or its affiliates or subsidiaries. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside these organization(s) without prior written approval from Navigant Consulting, Inc. The work presented in this report represents our best efforts and judgments based on the information available at the time this report was prepared. Navigant Consulting, Inc. is not responsible for the reader’s use of, or reliance upon, the report, nor any decisions based on the report.

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May 14, 2013

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10:00 Introductions

10:15 Update on EUC and Financing

11:00 Review of California Findings and Key Issues

11:30 Break/Lunch

12:30 Sector Results and Revisions

2:15 Additional Stakeholder Input

Agenda

3:45 Next Steps


10:00 Introductions



11:30 Break/Lunch



Agenda

3:45 Next Steps


10:00 Introductions



11:30 Break/Lunch



Agenda

3:45 Next Steps


10:00 Introductions



11:30 Break/Lunch



Agenda

3:45 Next Steps


Review of California Findings and Key Issues

2013 Preliminary Results - Do Not Cite

Study Objectives

• To provide guidance for the utilities’ 2015 energy efficiency portfolios

• To update the forecast for energy procurement planning :

• To inform strategic contributions to California’s greenhouse gas reduction targets

Key Points

• The 2013 Potential Forecasts Consistent Levels of Baseline Potential Going Forward

• Expanded Emerging Technologies Provide Additional Potential

• Potential in the AIMS Sectors Identifies New Sources of Savings

• Early Analysis Shows Financing as Alternate Driver of Savings

• Whole Building Efforts Represent Transformational Opportunities

• Lighting Technologies Still Drive Savings

• Codes and Standards and Behavioral Initiatives Remain Key Areas of Uncertainty




-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Residential Non-ETs Commercial Non-ETs

Industrial Residential ETs

Commercial ETs Mining

Street Lighting Usage-Based Behavior Savings (Res+Com)

C&S - IOU Attributable Savings

Year

Incr

emen

tal M

arket

Pot

ential

(GW

h)

Aggregate IOUs: Annual Incremental Market Potential by Sector, excluding Agriculture, with Emerging

Technologies (GWh)




-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,00020

12

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2011 Study

2013 Study

Aggregate IOUs: Comparison of Annual Incremental Market Potential in the 2011 and 2013 Potential Studies

(GWh)




-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Technical (2011) Technical (2013)

Economic (2011) Economic (2013)

GW

h

Year

Comparison of Technical and Economic Potential Using the Methodologies in the 2011 and 2013 Potential

Studies (GWh)




-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2013 Technical Potential 2013 Economic Potential2013 Cumulative Market Potential 2011 Technical Potential2011 Economic Potential 2011 Cumulative Market Potential

GW

h

Year

Aggregate IOUs: Comparison of Technical, Economic, and Cumulative Market Potential in the 2011 and 2013

Potential Studies (GWh)


Key Issues

1. Definition of Technical and Economic Potential• E.g. Is technical potential based on all devices being converted

with the highest efficiency achievable, or some representation of the range of high efficiency equipment. For example, is HVAC technical potential defined by gap between code and 22 SEER equipment or an average of the range of SEER above code?

2. Definition of Market Potential• Navigant used the best current market knowledge and followed

several guidelines in developing the recommended market potential;

• Avoid assumptions and model design decision that would establish goals and targets that are aspirational, but for which the technologies or market mechanism to attain these goals may not yet be clearly defined.

• Provide a view of market potential where data sources and calculation methods are transparent and clearly documented.

• Navigant considers that the market potential presented in this study to be a viable baseline target for energy efficiency to which load forecasters, system planners, and resource procurement specialists could agree. It is, however, not intended to define the upper bound on the total amount of energy efficiency that can be achieved.



Key Issues

1. Definition of Potential• This model is based largely on DEER and the Froze Ex-Ante

Database (FEA)



Key Issues

Definition of Potential – Example of 2013-2014 portfolio behavior components.


Home Energy Audits57%

All Othe Res Measures

43%

% Gross Res Portfolio GWh

16% of PG&E 2013-2014 portfolio is ‘Residential’, and 55% of the Residential portfolio is home energy audits with an EUL of 0.92 years. No other utility has this measure at this scale.Questions

• How is this component to be modeled in a long term forecast.

• What is associated uncertainty for system planning, procurement, and load forecasting


Key Issues: Calibration

Why do we need calibration?

• Model uses bottom-up data which needs to be consistent with what we’ve witnessed in the past for it be anchored to something in reality.

• iDR could be different for different end-uses. Calibrating at end-use level allows us to account for that reality.

How do we calibrate?

• Use past performance (EM&V 06-10 and ex-ante 11-12 savings) data as targets.

• The calibration multipliers are applied to the willingness & awareness calculations, which adjust measure adoption and annual savings.

• Emerging Technologies (ETs) are not calibrated down.



What are the side effects of calibration?

• The current approach holds 3 things constant• Consumer attitudes• Program efficacy and budget.• Program priorities

• Calibrating up has different impacts than calibrating down• Calibrating up increases market saturation in early

years leaving less potential for the future• Calibrating down brings down the equilibrium market

share.

What would an alternative calibration approach be?

• Relax constraints over time: assumes that the 3 constants can change over time. For multipliers less than 1, they would gradually approach 1 over time.

• Bring the iDR to the market interest rate as a way to allow for increased willigness and market adoption.

Calibration Approach


10:00 Introductions



11:30 Break/Lunch



Agenda

3:45 Next Steps


10:00 Introductions



11:30 Break/Lunch



Agenda

3:45 Next Steps

CommercialResidentialIndustrialAgricultureMiningStreet Lights


Commercial Results: Aggregate IOUs » Electric


Aggregate IOU Commercial Technical, Economic and Cumulative Market Potential for 2012 - 2024 (GWh)*

*Cumulative market potential reflects measure installations starting in 2006.



2013 Preliminary Results - Do Not CiteAggregate IOU Commercial Incremental Market Potential for

2012 – 2024 (GWh)




Aggregate IOU Commercial Incremental Market Potential by Measure Type Category 2012 – 2024 (GWh)




Aggregate IOU Commercial Whole Building (Existing and N/C) Cumulative Market Potential (GWh)




Whole Building New Construction vs. Retrofit (GWh)

2015: NC Level 2 becomes Code

2018: NC Level 3 becomes Code




Aggregate Incremental IOU Savings by RET/ROB 2012-2024 (GWh)




Aggregate IOU Commercial Cumulative Market Potential with and without Financing (GWh)




Aggregate IOU Incremental Market Potential Expressed as Equivalent Number of Average Commercial Buildings Removed

from the Grid*

*Number of average commercial buildings is calculated based on a 25,000 square foot building.



Aggregate IOU Incremental Market Potential in 2013 and 2014 Compared to 2013-2014 Compliance Filings and 2011 Potential Study





Aggregate IOU Commercial Potential as a Percent of CEC Commercial Forecast for Aggregate IOUs (GWh)*

*Based on IEPR Commercial Forecast for 2012. Excludes CEC forecast for energy efficiency.**Cumulative market potential reflects measure installations starting in 2006.




Aggregate IOU Commercial Cumulative Market Potential as a Percent of CEC Commercial End Use Forecasts for Aggregate

IOUs (GWh)*




Aggregate IOU Breakdown of Consumption and Savings Potential by

End Use (Modeled Results for Program Year 2014)


Note: Model results shown for Program Year 2014; CEUS results from 2006.




-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014

GW

h

Statewide Commercial Savings (GWh)

Statewide Commerical Savings (GWh)

ReportYear 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014

Statewide Commerical Savings 505,067,259 1,053,125,631 1,560,263,742 1,389,202,179 1,445,342,146 1,445,342,146 916,847,543 916,847,543 Statewide Floorspace (1000s sq ft - IEPR 2012) 5,396,139 5,486,845 5,573,991 5,650,210 5,700,226 5,730,346 5,845,616 5,936,325

kWh Savings Per 1000 Sq Ft of Floorspace 94 192 280 246 254 252 157 154 Source 2006-2009 SPT Database 2010-11 EE Progress Report 2013-14 PG&E Compliance Filings

Statewide Historical Per 1000sqft Commerical SavingsEvaluated Gross Savings (kWh) Reported Gross Savings (kWh) Compliance Filing Savings (GWh)


Commercial Results: Aggregate IOUs » Electric and Gas


Sensitivity of Model Outputs to Changes in a Single Variable from Mid EE Penetration Scenario to High or Low EE Penetration

Scenario

* Sensitivity analysis completed for PG&E as an illustrative tool only. Other IOUs have similar sensitivities.


Commercial Results: Aggregate IOUs » Gas

2013 Preliminary Results - Do Not CiteAggregate IOU Commercial Technical, Economic and Cumulative Market Potential for 2012 – 2024

(Therms)*

*Cumulative market potential reflects measure installations starting in 2006..




Aggregate IOU Commercial Incremental Market Potential for 2012 – 2024 (Therms)*

*Negative interactive effects from lighting cause the graph to show values below zero in early years. However, gas savings from other end uses offset these negative impacts and result in net positive gas savings.**Ex Post Savings reported from 2006 to 2012 under the Process-Heating use category are accounted for by efficient boiler savings which is modeled under the HVAC use category. Accordingly, no savings are reported under Process-Heating.



Aggregate IOU Incremental Market Potential in 2013 and 2014 Compared to 2013-2014 Compliance Filings and 2011 Potential Study*


* 2013 Study excludes Steam Traps. No plans to add per current program direction.




Aggregate IOU Commercial Potential as a Percent of CEC Commercial Forecast for Aggregate IOUs (Gas)*



Commercial Results: Aggregate IOUs » Stakeholder Comments

For the May 10 release, the Navigant team corrected a calculation error, updated the approach for process boilers, and recalibrated the results.

Stakeholder Comments

Approach to AddressingTheme Description

Measure-Specific Requests

Server efficiency (ET) ETs selected based on the largest energy-consuming sector end-use combinations in the state

Results

Gap between TE and M potential for gas and electric as a whole

Fixed a calculation error in the model. Recalibrated, excluding ETs from calibration. Some gap still remains.

Study results lower than 2013-2014 compliance filings

Fixed a calculation error in the model. Recalibrated, excluding ETs from calibration. Updated approach to process boilers.

Financing has small impact Maintaining relatively conservative assumptions for key inputs until more robust data available.

Electric results achieve <1% of sales on incremental basis

Demonstrates the need to identify game-changing ETs to fill the pipeline.

Approach to Addressing Stakeholder Comments on Draft Commercial Sector Results


Commercial Results: Aggregate IOUs » Stakeholder Comments

The model has limited capabilities to address two requests for specific outputs at this time.



Requests for Specific Outputs

Break out potential for whole building measures into constituent measures

The Navigant team will provide a list of the measures that made up each whole building bundle, but the model is not set up to break out whole building potential into potential for each measure.

Show some results for gas with similar graphics as shown for electric

Not included at this time.

Approach to Addressing Stakeholder Comments on Draft Commercial Sector Results


10:00 Introductions



11:30 Break/Lunch



Agenda

3:45 Next Steps



FK Placeholder.

Residential Results: Aggregate IOUs

Update


Residential Results: Aggregate IOUs » Electric


Aggregate IOU Residential Technical, Economic and Cumulative Market Potential for 2012 - 2024 (GWh)*




Aggregate IOU Residential Incremental Market Potential for 2012 – 2024 (GWh)



2013 Preliminary Results - Do Not CiteAggregate IOU Residential Incremental Market Potential by Measure Type Category 2012 – 2024

(GWh)




Aggregate IOU Residential Whole Building (Existing and N/C) Cumulative Market Potential (GWh)




Aggregate IOU Residential Cumulative Market Potential with and without Financing (GWh)




Aggregate IOU Incremental Market Potential Expressed as Equivalent Number of Average Homes Removed from the Grid*

*Number of average homes is calculated as an average of all households served by the aggregate IOUs; based on CEC forecast.








Aggregate IOU Residential Potential as a Percent of CEC Residential Forecast for Aggregate IOUs (GWh)*

*Based on IEPR Residential Forecast for 2012. Excludes CEC forecast for energy efficiency.**Cumulative market potential reflects measure installations starting in 2006.




Aggregate IOU Residential Cumulative Market Potential as a Percent of CEC Residential End Use Forecasts for Aggregate

IOUs (GWh)*




Aggregate IOU Breakdown of Consumption and Savings Potential by

End Use (Modeled Results for Program Year 2014)


Note: Model results shown for Program Year 2014; RASS results from 2009.



Aggregate IOU Breakdown of Consumption and Savings Potential

Embedded in End Use Consumption (Modeled Results for Program Year 2014)


Note: Model results shown for Program Year 2014; RASS results from 2009.





Note: Model results shown for Program Year 2014; CEUS results from 2006.

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014

GW

hStatewide Residential Savings (GWh)

Statewide Residential Savings (GWh)

ReportYear 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014

Statewide Residential Savings 573,577,138 1,128,566,310 1,319,584,040 990,568,603 1,072,925,678 1,072,925,678 502,085,271 502,085,271 Statewide Households (IEPR 2012) 10,095,168 10,208,529 10,294,221 10,342,684 10,369,299 10,480,697 10,699,731 10,804,563

kWh Savings Per Household 57 111 128 96 103 102 47 46 Source 2006-2009 SPT Database 2010-11 EE Progress Report 2013-14 PG&E Compliance Filings

Compliance Filing Savings (GWh)Statewide Historical Per Home Savings

Evaluated Gross Savings (kWh) Reported Gross Savings (kWh)


2013 Preliminary Results - Do Not CiteAggregate IOU Residential Technical, Economic

and Cumulative Market Potential for 2012 – 2024 (Therms)*


Residential Results: Aggregate IOUs » Gas




California Residential Incremental Market Potential for 2012 – 2024 (Therms)*

*Negative interactive effects from lighting cause the graph to show values below zero in early years. However, gas savings from other end uses offset these negative impacts and result in net positive gas savings.








Aggregate IOU Residential Potential as a Percent of CEC Residential Forecast for Aggregate IOUs (Gas)*



Residential Results: Aggregate IOUs » Stakeholder Comments

The Navigant team re-calibrated the model and added pool pumps to the measure list to address stakeholder comments.



Measure-Specific Requests

Electric pool pumps Added measure using work paper data.

Gap between TE and M potential: HVAC (GWh), water heating (gas), overall (gas)

Recalibrated, excluding ETs from calibration. Some gap still remains.

Calibrate at measure level rather than end use

May consider during Q4 update; does not affect top-line results.

Behavior has more potential than shown

Approach remains consistent with 2011. May consider during Q4 update.

Server efficiency (ET) ETs selected based on the largest energy-consuming sector end-use combinations in the state

Approach to Addressing Stakeholder Comments on Draft Residential Sector Results


Residential Results: Aggregate IOUs » Stakeholder Comments

Other stakeholder comments address functionality already available in the model or refer to inputs that are based on previous research.



Measure Groups

ET: small savings Recalibrated, excluding ETs from calibration.

C&S: compliance rates No changes made. Compliance rates based on CPUC evaluation of C&S programs.

Whole building definition “Whole building” refers to design and construction practices that fully integrate building performance objectives to reduce cooling and heating loads.

Scenarios/Stress Tests

Benefit cost test: Add scenario with PAC

Still assessing options.

TRC Screen: Increase beyond 0.85

The user interface allows users to change this. Base scenario continues to use 0.85 per ED guidance.

Use a fixed incentive level in High EE Penetration Scenario

High scenario continues to use a variably incentive structure per CPUC guidance.

Requests for Specific Outputs

Several different cuts at the data

This functionality already available in the model. View results by measure.



10:00 Introductions



11:30 Break/Lunch



Agenda

3:45 Next Steps



Industrial Results: Aggregate IOUs » Supply Curve Example

Industrial Methodology - Recap of Supply Curve

Example Supply Curve

Analysis of the Industrial Sector used a supply curve approach rather than Bass diffusion. See the appendices included with this release for details.


Industrial Results: Aggregate IOUs » Electric


Aggregate IOU Industrial Technical, Economic and Cumulative Market Potential for 2012 - 2024 (GWh)*




2013 Preliminary Results - Do Not CiteAggregate IOU Industrial Incremental Market Potential by

Sub-Sector for 2012 – 2024 (GWh)




Aggregate IOU Industrial Incremental Market Potential by End-Use for 2012 – 2024 (GWh)


Industrial Results: Aggregate IOUs » Electric Comparative Metrics

Savings Distribution by IOU Across End-Uses for Electric Measures in 2013

60% of savings come from Equipment and 40% from O&M savings across all IOUs.



Aggregate IOU Industrial Incremental Market Potential in 2013 and 2014 Compared to 2013-2014 Compliance Filings and 2011

Potential Study


Industrial Results: Aggregate IOUs » Comparative Metrics

2013 Preliminary Results - Do Not Cite – Comparative Metrics

IOU Ex-ante Electric (GWh) Budget (Millions $) $/kWh

PG&E 195 $69.0 $0.35

SCE 429 $77.1 $0.18

SDG&E 17 $6.2 $0.37

IOU2013-2014 IOU Filings

(GWh)Navigant Model (GWh)

2013-2014 Consumption

Forecast (GWh)

All 640 412 35,640

PG&E 195 197 17,398

SCE 429 195 16,687

SDG&E 17 20 1,556

IOU2013-2014 IOU Filings

(MM Therm)

Navigant Model (MM

Therm)

2013-2014 Consumption

Forecast (MM Therm)

All 48 53 6,567

PG&E 22 25 3,140

SDG&E 0.4 0.5 56.4

SCG 26 27 3,371

2013 - 2014 Industrial Sector Savings Comparison, Gas

2013 - 2014 Industrial Sector IOU Filings (Electric)

2013 - 2014 Industrial Sector Savings Comparison, Electric


Industrial Results: Aggregate IOUs » Comparative Metrics

KEMA Source: KEMA Industrial Sectors Market Characterizations, Released January to February 2012, Calmac.org

2013 Preliminary Results - Do Not Cite – Comparative Metrics

Electric End-Uses Electric (%) Electric End-Uses Electric (%)

HVAC 17%HVAC, Process Heat,

Process Refrigeration18%

Lighting 7% Lighting 11%

Motors, Compressed Air,

Pump, Fans75% Machine Drives 70%

Other 1% N/A N/A

Total 100% Total 100%

Gas End-Uses Gas (%) Gas End-Uses Gas (%)

HVAC 2% HVAC 4%

Process (varies) 59% Process Heat 65%

Boilers 39% Service Hot Water 31%

Total 100% Total 100%

Share of EE Potential in each End-Use Category: KEMA 2012 Reports compared to Navigant, Gas

Share of EE Potential in each End-Use Category: KEMA 2012 Reports compared to Navigant, Electric

KEMA Navigant

NavigantKEMA


Source: Energy Savings Potential of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, January 2012


Industrial Lighting Service Forecast (Teralumen-Hours Served by Each

Technology), 2010 to 2030

Source: Navigant 2010, Energy Savings Potential of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications 2010 to 2030Note: The scale in the image above starts at 6.0 Quad rather than 0.

Other secondary sources indicate that energy consumption by lighting is anticipated to decrease by about 40% in a scenario with heavy LED adoption.

National Energy Consumption for Lighting through 2030 for Each Scenario (Quads)


Industrial Results: Aggregate IOUs » Gas

2013 Preliminary Results - Do Not CiteAggregate IOU Industrial Technical, Economic and

Cumulative Market Potential for 2012 - 2024 (Therms)*




2013 Preliminary Results - Do Not CiteAggregate IOU Industrial Incremental Market Potential by

Sub-Sector for 2012 – 2024 (Therms)




Aggregate IOU Industrial Incremental Market Potential by End-Use for 2012 – 2024 (Therms)


Industrial Results: Aggregate IOUs » Gas Comparative Metrics

Aggregate IOU Industrial Incremental Market Potential in 2013 and 2014 Compared to 2013-2014 Compliance Filings

and 2011 Potential Study


Industrial Results: Aggregate IOUs » Gas Comparative Metrics

Savings Distribution Across End-Uses for Electric Measures in 2013


Industrial Results: Aggregate IOUs » Stakeholder Comments

Many of the stakeholder comments on the Industrial sector concerned clarifications about the data sources and scope of the work in this sector.


Summary of ResponseTheme Description

Data

Geographic scope of data Used national data. Most manufacturers use standard practices regardless of location.

Size of facilities included in IAC

Small and large facilities have the same sets of equipment.

Alternative data: Audits and applications/Aspen 2000-2002 results

IAC most representative and current. Can use Aspen 2000-2002 to cross-check results.

Concerns about alignment with current programs (e.g., measures, EULs, O&M)

Reviewing measure list to identify overlap. The Navigant team believes that all measures included in the study reflect eligible measures for IOUs.

Scope

Petroleum and natural gas segment not included

Results available in the Mining sector deck/model.

CHP as a competing source of savings for EE

CHP was out of the scope of this study.

Responses to Stakeholder Comments on Draft Industrial Sector Results



Two key stakeholder concerns addressed methodological questions.



Methodology

Refresh/saturate assumptions

Revised the refresh/saturate assumptions at the sub-sector and end use level to better reflect understanding of the markets.

Willingness methodology Follow up with inquiring stakeholder.


The Navigant team updated the refresh/saturate approach, as outlined on the next slide.



Refresh =1 Saturate = 0

Refresh/Saturate Assumptions by End Use and Sub-Sector


10:00 Introductions



11:30 Break/Lunch



Agenda

3:45 Next Steps



2011 Electric Consumption, PG&E, SCE, & SDGE Totals, by Sub-Sector and End-Use.

Agricultural Results: PG&E, SCE, SDGE Totals » Electricity

Proposed Navigant Segment

Identifier -->

DairiesIrrigated

AgricultureGreenhouses &

NurseriesVineyards &

Wineries CAFOsRefrigerated Warehouses

Post-Harvest Processing

CEC Segment Identifier /

NAICS Code -->

Dairy Cattle and Milk Production

Field Crops; Fruit, Tree and Vine Crops

Greenhouse, Nursery, and Floriculture Production

Wineries (Wine-Making Vineyards)

Animal Production except Dairy Cattle/Milk Production

Refrigerated Warehousing and Storage (Under

Commercial Building)

Postharvest Crop Activities (including

Cotton Ginning); Cotton Ginning

112120 1111, 1119, 1112, 1113 1114 111332 112 493120 115114, 115111

HVAC 64,512.27

-

110,057.81

27,795.49

180,815.55 -

37,196.31

Lighting 80,640.34

-

34,647.83

105,622.88

18,545.18 78,568.14

46,495.38

Motors 8,064.03

1,730,327.14

14,266.75

44,472.79

5,795.37 26,189.38

18,598.15

Refrigeration 330,625.39

-

12,228.65

222,363.95

8,113.52 576,166.34

251,075.06

Water Heating and Cooling

48,384.20

-

10,190.54

50,031.89

5,795.37 17,459.59

-

Process 177,408.74

-

16,304.86

94,504.68

5,795.37 -

567,243.66

Miscellaneous 96,768.41

91,069.85

6,114.32

11,118.20

6,954.44 -

4,649.54

Total, MWh* 806,403

1,821,397

203,811

555,910

231,815

698,383

929,908

MWh Consumption ‘Heat Map’ created using CEC QFER data from 2011.

Dairies Irrigated Agriculture

Greenhouses & Nurseries

Vineyards & Wineries

CAFOs Refrigerated Warehouses


HVAC 1% 0% 2% 1% 3% 0% 1%Lighting 2% 0% 1% 2% 0% 1% 1%Motors 0% 33% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%

Refrigeration 6% 0% 0% 4% 0% 11% 5%Water Heating

and Cooling 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%

Process 3% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 11%Miscellaneous 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

15% 35% 4% 11% 4% 13% 18%Denotes Industrial MICS used in

Analysis

Distribution of Electric Consumption across Sub-Sectors and End-Uses.


Agricultural Results: Aggregate IOUs » Agricultural Sector › Electric


Aggregate IOU Agricultural Technical/Economic and Cumulative Market Potential for 2012 - 2024 (% GWh)*




2013 Preliminary Results - Do Not CiteIOU Specific Agricultural Incremental Market

Potential by Sub-Sector, 2013 (Percent of Total Market Potential)




Potential by End-Use, 2013 (Percent of Total Market Potential)

Process (electric): E.g., motors driving equipment, conveyors, etc.Motors: E.g., motors driving pumps for irrigation, etc.








IOU Incremental Market Potential in 2013 and 2014 as a Percent of

Consumption

2013 - 2014 Agricultural Sector Savings Comparison, Electric

IOU 2013-2014 IOU Filings (GWh)

Navigant Model (GWh)

2013-2014 Consumption Forecast

(GWh)All 249 205 24,646

PG&E 206 119 14,296

SCE 35 81 9,798

SDG&E 8 5 553


2011 Gas Consumption, PG&E, SCG, & SDGE Totals, by Sub-Sector and End-Use.

Agricultural Results: PG&E, SCG, SDGE Totals » Gas

Therm Consumption ‘Heat Map’ created using CEC QFER data from 2011.

Distribution of Gas Consumption across Sub-Sectors and End-Uses.

Proposed Navigant Segment

Identifier -->

DairiesIrrigated



Wineries CAFOsRefrigerated Warehouses


CEC Segment Identifier /

NAICS Code -->

Dairy Cattle and Milk Production

Field Crops; Fruit, Tree and Vine Crops

Greenhouse, Nursery, and Floriculture Production

Wineries (Wine-Making Vineyards)

Animal Production except Dairy Cattle/Milk Production

Refrigerated Warehousing and Storage (Under

Commercial Building)

Postharvest Crop Activities (including

Cotton Ginning)

112120 1111, 1119, 1112, 1113 1114 111332 112 493120 115114, 115111

HVAC 216,313.10 9,692,386.27 36,183,558.95

8,279,589.21 1,042,114.90

1,115,178.00

334,828.67

Lighting - - -

- -

-

-

Motors - - -

- -

-

-

Refrigeration - - -

- -

-

-

Water Heating and Cooling

1,946,817.90 - -

10,349,486.51 9,379,034.10

-

-

Process - - -

1,034,948.65 -

-

33,148,038.33

Miscellaneous - 9,692,386.27 365,490.49

1,034,948.65 -

1,115,178.00

-

Total, Therms* 2,162,078.00

19,927,154.00

36,372,394.00

20,073,977.00 10,421,149.00

2,230,356.00

33,482,867.00 Dairies Irrigated



WineriesCAFOs Refrigerated

WarehousesPost-Harvest Processing

HVAC 0% 8% 29% 6% 1% 1% 0%

Lighting 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Motors 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Refrigeration 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%Water Heating

and Cooling2% 0% 0% 8% 8% 0% 0%

Process 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 27%

Miscellaneous 0% 8% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0%

2% 16% 29% 16% 8% 2% 27%Denotes Industrial MICS used in

AnalysisLit. Review and SME Interviews

Denotes Commercial MICS used in Analysis


Agricultural Results: Aggregate IOUs » Agricultural Sector › Gas

2013 Preliminary Results - Do Not CiteAggregate IOU Agricultural Technical/Economic and Cumulative Market Potential for 2012 - 2024 (% MM

Therms)*





IOU Specific Agricultural Incremental Market Potential by Sub-Sector, 2013 (Percent of Total Market Potential)




Potential by End-Use, 2013 (Percent of Total Market Potential)








IOU Incremental Market Potential in 2013 and 2014 as a Percent of

Consumption

2013 - 2014 Agricultural Sector Savings Comparison, Gas

IOU 2013-2014 IOU Filings (MM Therms)

Navigant Model (MM Therms)

2013-2014 Consumption Forecast

(MM Therms)All 12 4 240

PG&E 9 1 71

SDG&E 0 0 8

SCG 2 3 160


Agricultural Results: Aggregate IOUs » Agricultural Sector


2013 - 2014 Agricultural Sector IOU Filings (Combined Fuels, Electric and Gas)

IOUEx-ante Savings, Combined Fuel

(MMBTU)Budget (Millions $) $/MMBTU

PG&E 1,607,799 $28.82 $17.93

SCE 119,280 $1.44 $12.11

SCG 242,126 $1.44 $5.96

SDG&E 47,294 $2.22 $46.94

2013 - 2014 Agricultural Sector IOU Savings Comparison, Electric, $/kWh

IOU Filing Navigant

PG&E $0.14 $0.14

SCE $0.04 $0.14

SCG N/A N/A

SDG&E $0.27 $0.14

Aggregate $0.13 $0.14

2013 - 2014 Agricultural Sector IOU Savings Comparison, Electric, $/Therm

IOU Filing Navigant

PG&E $3.18 $2.07

SCE N/A N/A

SCG $0.60 $4.66

SDG&E $11.72 $6.87

Aggregate $2.78 $4.38


10:00 Introductions



11:30 Break/Lunch



Agenda

3:45 Next Steps



Mining Results: Aggregate IOUs » Electric



Aggregate IOU Mining Technical, Economic and Cumulative Market Potential for 2012 - 2024 (GWh)*





Aggregate IOU Mining Potential as a Percent of CEC Mining Forecast (QFER) 2012 - 2024 (GWh)*




Aggregate IOU Mining Incremental Market Potential by Sub-Sector for 2012 – 2024 (GWh)


Mining Results: Aggregate IOUs » Gas



Aggregate IOU Mining Technical, Economic and Cumulative Market Potential for 2012 - 2024

(Therms)*





Aggregate IOU Mining Potential as a Percent of CEC Mining Forecast (QFER) 2012 - 2024

(Therms)*




Aggregate IOU Mining Incremental Market Potential by Sub-Sector for 2012 – 2024 (Therms)


10:00 Introductions



11:30 Break/Lunch



Agenda

3:45 Next Steps



Street Lighting Results: Aggregate IOUs » Electric

2013 Preliminary Results - Do Not CiteAggregate IOU Street Lighting Technical, Economic

and Cumulative Market Potential for 2012 - 2024 (GWh)*




Aggregate IOU Street Lighting Potential as a Percent of CEC Street Lighting Forecast (QFER) 2012 - 2024

(GWh)*






Aggregate IOU Street Lighting Incremental Market Potential by Sub-Sector for 2012 – 2024 (GWh)


10:00 Introductions



11:30 Break/Lunch



Agenda

3:45 Next Steps


10:00 Introductions



11:30 Break/Lunch



Agenda

3:45 Next Steps

KeyC O N T A C T S

©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.

KeyC O N T A C T S


KeyC O N T A C T S


KeyC O N T A C T S

©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. 104

E N E R G Y

Floyd Keneipp, Director in ChargeManaging DirectorWalnut Creek, CA(925) 930-2716 [email protected]

Jane Pater Salmon, Project ManagerAssociate DirectorBoulder, CO(303) 728-2522 [email protected]

Brad Rogers, Lead ModelerManaging Consultant Boulder, CO(303) 728-2535 [email protected]

Amul Sathe, ET, C&S, SP, MICSManaging ConsultantSan Francisco, CA(415) [email protected]

Surya Swamy, AnalyticaManaging ConsultantWalnut Creek, CA(925) [email protected]

Matt O’Hare, IMS Sector LeadManaging ConsultantWashington, DC(202) [email protected]

Please copy all comments or questions to

Sam Piell, Workflow CoordinatorSenior ConsultantWalnut Creek, CA(925) 930-2711 [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]








Additional Support Slides

Appendix


Illustration of Calibration Issues


Uncalibrated forecasts have

no historic basis.

Creates a discontinuity in

overall trend

Calibration is consistent with

historic data

Calibration can suppress future

potential

Note: These charts are for illustrative purposes only and do not include real data.


Illustration of Calibration Issues


True potential may fall in between

calibrated and uncalibrated.Uncalibrated serves as the

floor for potential.

Note: This chart is for illustrative purposes only and do not include real data.

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