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2013 -‐ The Year Ahead In Mobile Alex Cocotas Research Analyst, Business Insider Intelligence
Now that the year-‐end 2012 data is in, where’s the mobile industry headed
this year?
First, some context
As of year-‐end 2012: 2.5+ billion people online
0"
500"
1,000"
1,500"
2,000"
2,500"
3,000"
1990"1991"1992"1993"1994"1995"1996"1997"1998"1999"2000"2001"2002"2003"2004"2005"2006"2007"2008"2009"2010"2011"2012"
(millions))
Global)Internet)Popula4on)
Source:(Interna-onal(Communica-on(Union,(Google,(Internet(World(Stats,(BI(Intelligence(es-mates(
~35% of global population
Global&Popula*on&
Internet&Popula*on&
0"
1,000"
2,000"
3,000"
4,000"
5,000"
6,000"
7,000"
8,000"
1990"1991"1992"1993"1994"1995"1996"1997"1998"1999"2000"2001"2002"2003"2004"2005"2006"2007"2008"2009"2010"2011"2012"
(millions)&
Global&Internet&Popula*on&
Source:(Interna-onal(Communica-on(Union,(Google,(Internet(World(Stats,(BI(Intelligence(es-mates((
Mobile is already 1/7 of global Internet traffic and growing its share quickly
Mobile now accounts for 15% of global Internet traffic
Desktop(
1%(4%(
Mobile(15%(
0%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
40%#
50%#
60%#
70%#
80%#
90%#
100%#
Dec#08# Apr#09# Aug#09# Dec#09# Apr#10# Aug#10# Dec#10# Apr#11# Aug#11# Dec#11# Apr#12# Aug#12# Dec#12#Source:(StatCounter(
Global(Internet(Traffic:(Mobile(vs.(Desktop(
Mobile on pace to top 25% of traffic by year-‐end 2013
4%#
15%#
0%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
40%#
50%#
60%#
70%#
80%#
90%#
100%#
Dec#10# Apr#11# Aug#11# Dec#11# Apr#12# Aug#12# Dec#12#Source:(StatCounter(
Mobile#Internet#As#A#Percentage#Of#Total#Internet#Traffic#
Device sales are pushing people onto the mobile
Internet
Smartphone growth continued, while PC shipments actually declined last year
Personal)Computers)
Smartphones)
Tablets)
0"
200,000,000"
400,000,000"
600,000,000"
800,000,000"
1,000,000,000"
1,200,000,000"
1,400,000,000"
2000" 2001" 2002" 2003" 2004" 2005" 2006" 2007" 2008" 2009" 2010" 2011" 2012"
Global)Internet)Device)Shipments)
Source:(Gartner,(IDC,(Strategy(Analy5cs,(company(filings,(BI(Intelligence(es5mates(
Personal)Computers)
Smartphones)
Tablets)
0"
500,000,000"
1,000,000,000"
1,500,000,000"
2,000,000,000"
2,500,000,000"
3,000,000,000"
2000" 2001" 2002" 2003" 2004" 2005" 2006" 2007" 2008" 2009" 2010" 2011" 2012" 2013E" 2014E" 2015E" 2016E"
Global)Internet)Device)Shipments)Forecast)
Source:(Gartner,(IDC,(Strategy(Analy5cs,(company(filings,(BI(Intelligence(es5mates(
And the disparity will only grow
We are here
Tablets are poised to take a huge leap this year
U.S. tablet penetration now ~25%, so plenty of room to grow
Smartphone+Owners+
Tablet+Owners+
0"
20"
40"
60"
80"
100"
120"
140"
May+10" Aug+10" Nov+10" Feb+11" May+11" Aug+11" Nov+11" Feb+12" May+12" Aug+12" Nov+12"
(millions)+
Source:(Pew(Research(Center,(comScore,(U.S.(census(bureau(Note:(Includes(smartphones(owners(over(age(of(13(and(tablet(owners(over(the(age(of(18(
U.S+Smartphone+and+Tablet+Owners+
But … unlike smartphones, tablet sales aren’t usually
subsidized by carriers
That’s why current owners tend to be moneyed
4%# 4%#
8%#10%#
3%#
8%#
16%#
27%#
3%#
10%#
20%#
32%#
9%#
22%#
36%#
47%#
0%#
5%#
10%#
15%#
20%#
25%#
30%#
35%#
40%#
45%#
50%#
Nov#10# Dec#11# Jan#12# Aug#12#
%"of"U
.S."adu
lts"th
at"own..."
Source:(Pew(
U.S."Tablet"Penetra6on"By"Household"Income"
<$30,000# $30,000<$49,000# $50,000<$74,999# $75,000+#
And a bit older …
6%#
10%#
24%#25%#
6%#
14%#
27%#
31%#
4%#
8%#
15%#
27%#
2%#
5%#7%#
13%#
0%#
5%#
10%#
15%#
20%#
25%#
30%#
35%#
Nov#10# Dec#11# Jan#12# Aug#12#
%"of"U
.S."adu
lts"th
at"own..."
Source:(Pew(
U.S."Tablet"Penetra6on"By"Age"
18829# 30849# 50864# 65+#
Thankfully, tablets and mini-‐tablets are getting cheaper … Even Apple is price-‐cutting
$0#
$100#
$200#
$300#
$400#
$500#
$600#
$700#
Q2#2010# Q3#2010# Q4#2010# Q1#2011# Q2#2011# Q3#2011# Q4#2011# Q1#2012# Q2#2012# Q3#2012# Q4#2012#
iPad%Average%Selling%Price%
0"
50"
100"
150"
200"
250"
300"
350"
400"
450"
500"
2010" 2011" 2012E" 2013E" 2014E" 2015E" 2016E"
(millions))
Tablet)Shipments)Forecast)
Lower prices will help tablet sales skyrocket
We are here
And tablet sales are just getting started globally
Global&
China&0"
5"
10"
15"
20"
25"
30"
35"
40"
1Q11" 2Q11" 3Q11" 4Q11" 1Q12" 2Q12" 3Q12"
(millions)&
Source:(Analysys(Interna1onal,(iSuppli,(IDC,(BII(es1mates(
Global&Tablet&Shipments&
In 2013, the mobile growth story will shift to the developing world
Mobile is driving Internet penetration in China
Mobile'
Total'
0"
100"
200"
300"
400"
500"
600"
June"06" Dec"06" June"07" Dec"07" June"08" Dec"08" June"09" Dec"09" June"10" Dec"10" June"11" Dec"11" June"12" Dec"12"
(millions)'
Chinese'Internet'Users'
Source:(China(Internet(Network(Informa5on(Center(
(Which stands at 42 percent)
9%#
42%#
0%#
5%#
10%#
15%#
20%#
25%#
30%#
35%#
40%#
45%#
50%#
Dec#05#Jun#06#Dec#06#Jun#07#Dec#07#Jun#08#Dec#08#Jun#09#Dec#09#Jun#10#Dec#10#Jun#11#Dec#11#Jun#12#Dec#12#Source:(CNNIC(
China&Internet&Penetra,on&
It is now the world’s largest smartphone market
Rest%Of%The%World%
China%
!"!!!!
!20,000!!
!40,000!!
!60,000!!
!80,000!!
!100,000!!
!120,000!!
!140,000!!
!160,000!!
!180,000!!
1Q11! 2Q11! 3Q11! 4Q11! 1Q12! 2Q12! 3Q12!
(tho
usan
ds)%
Global%Smartphone%Shipments%
Source:(Gartner,(IDC,(Strategy(Analy5cs,(Canalys,(BII(es5mates(
Android is winning China’s platform race
Android'
Apple'
Symbian'
Other'
0%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
40%#
50%#
60%#
70%#
80%#
90%#
100%#
Q2#2011# Q3#2011# Q4#2011# Q1#2012# Q2#2012# Q3#2012#Source:(Analysys(Interna1onal(
Chinese'Smartphone'Market'Share'By'Pla9orm'
Which is bad news for Apple
Because the next wave of adoption will come from countries like China
1,344%
1,241%
142%197%
1,090%
1,090%
228%259%222%
48% 33% 14%0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
1,000%
1,200%
1,400%
China% India% Russia% Brazil%
(Millions))
Sources:)Carriers,)governments,)Flurry,)TomiAhonen)Consul9ng,)Umeng,)Cybermedia)Research,)BII)Es9mates)
BRICs:)Mobile)and)Smartphone)Penetra:on)
Popula>on% Mobile%Phone%Subscrip>ons% Ac>ve%Smartphones%(YearJEnd%2012e)%
Large populations, low penetration … but less money
20%$
14%$
5%$ 5%$
0%$
5%$
10%$
15%$
20%$
25%$
China$ Russia$ India$ Brazil$
Pene
tra'
on)As)%
)Of)M
obile)Con
nec'on
s,)Year7En
d)2012)Es'mate))
Sources:)Carriers,)governments,)Flurry,)TomiAhonen)Consul9ng,)Umeng,)Cybermedia)Research,)BII)Es9mates)
BRICs:)Smartphone)Penetra'on)As)%)Of)Mobile)Subscrip'ons)
And iPhones aren’t getting any cheaper
$400$
$450$
$500$
$550$
$600$
$650$
$700$
Q2$2008$
Q3$2008$
Q4$2008$
Q1$2009$
Q2$2009$
Q3$2009$
Q4$2009$
Q1$2010$
Q2$2010$
Q3$2010$
Q4$2010$
Q1$2011$
Q2$2011$
Q3$2011$
Q4$2011$
Q1$2012$
Q2$2012$
Q3$2012$
Q4$2012$
iPhone'Average'Selling'Price'
Which is what is driving this…
The shift to low-‐end emerging markets is crucial because …
Technology adoption growth slows after hitting the 50% penetration tipping point
Because under-‐penetrated segments are older and less wealthy
59%$ 60%$
47%$
31%$
22%$
16%$
67%$72%$
58%$
46%$
34%$
25%$
74%$
81%$76%$
61%$
51%$
42%$
0%$
10%$
20%$
30%$
40%$
50%$
60%$
70%$
80%$
90%$
Ages$18$1$24$ Ages$25$1$34$ Ages$35$1$44$ Ages$45$1$54$ Ages$55$1$64$ Ages$65+$
Smartphone+Penetra-on+By+Age+And+Income+(U.S.)+
<$50k$ 50k$1$100k$ 100k+$Source:(Nielsen(Mobile(Insights,(Q1(2012(
Even though it may look like upside is still huge for phone manufacturers
Other& Microso,&Blackberry&
Apple&
Android&
Non8Smart&
0"
50"
100"
150"
200"
250"
Q4"2009" Q1"2010" Q2"2010" Q3"2010" Q4"2010" Q1"2011" Q2"2011" Q3"2011" Q4"2011" Q1"2012" Q2"2012" Q3"2012" Q4"2012"
Total&Mobile&Users&
(millions)&
Source:(comScore(
U.S&Mobile&Market&Share&By&PlaAorm&
The U.S. has already reached that point
18%$
53%$
0%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
40%#
50%#
60%#Jan#10#
Feb#10#
Mar#10#
Apr#1
0#May#10#
Jun#10#
Jul#10#
Aug#10#
Sep#10#
Oct#10#
Nov#10#
Dec#10
#Jan#11#
Feb#11#
Mar#11#
Apr#1
1#May#11#
Jun#11#
Jul#11#
Aug#11#
Sep#11#
Oct#11#
Nov#11#
Dec#11
#Jan#12#
Feb#12#
Mar#12#
Apr#1
2#May#12#
Jun#12#
Jul#12#
Aug#12#
Sep#12#
Oct#12#
Nov#12#
(as$a
$percentage$of$th
e$mob
ile$pop
ula9
on)$
Source:(comScore(
U.S.$Smartphone$Penetra9on$
So have the largest European markets
31%$
38%$34%$
26%$
35%$
25%$
42%$
48%$ 48%$
38%$42%$
34%$
55%$
63%$ 62%$
51%$ 51%$48%$
0%$
10%$
20%$
30%$
40%$
50%$
60%$
70%$
EU5$ Spain$ UK$ France$ Italy$ Germany$
Source:(comScore(
European)Smartphone)Penetra/on)(%)of)mobile)phone)users,)age)13+))
Dec$10$ Oct$11$ Oct$12$
And penetration will slow as a result
0"
5"
10"
15"
20"
25"
30"
35"
40"
Q1"2008"
Q2"2008"
Q3"2008"
Q4"2008"
Q1"2009"
Q2"2009"
Q3"2009"
Q4"2009"
Q1"2010"
Q2"2010"
Q3"2010"
Q4"2010"
Q1"2011"
Q2"2011"
Q3"2011"
Q4"2011"
Q1"2012"
Q2"2012"
Q3"2012"
Q4"2012"
Users%Added%
(millions)%
U.S.%Smartphone%Market:%Year9Over9Year%Net%Adds%
Source:(comScore,(Nielsen,(BI(Intelligence(es4mates(
But globally, it’s still early days
Feature'Phone'Sales'
Smartphone'Sales'
!"!!!!
!500!!
!1,000!!
!1,500!!
!2,000!!
!2,500!!
2010! 2011! 2012! 2013! 2014! 2015! 2016!
Global!Mobile!Phone!Sales!(millions)!
Global!Smartphone!Penetra>on!Forecast!
In the developed world, the focus will be on monetizing
users
Over 50% of U.S. mobile consumers have downloaded apps, browsed mobile Web
Sent%Text%Message%
Used%Browser%
Used%Downloaded%Apps%
Played%games%
Accessed%Social%Network%%Or%Blog%
Listened%to%music%%
0%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
40%#
50%#
60%#
70%#
80%#
Feb#10#
Apr#10#
May#10#
Jun#10#
Jul#10#
Aug#10#
Sept#10#
Oct#10#
Nov#10#
Dec#10#
Jan#11#
Feb#11#
Mar#11#
Apr#11#
May#11#
Jun#11#
Jul#11#
Aug#11#
Sept#11#
Oct#11#
Nov#11#
Dec#11#
Jan#12#
Feb#12#
Mar#12#
Apr#12#
May#12#
June#12#
July#12#
Aug#12#
Sep#12#
Oct#12#
Nov#12#
%%of%m
obile%pop
ulaC
on%th
at%has...%
Source:(comScore(
U.S.%Mobile%Content%Usage%
For now, U.S. mobile audiences are still growing
62%$
60%$
56%$
53%$
51%$
50%$
48%$47%$
46%$
46%$
0$
5,000$
10,000$
15,000$
20,000$
25,000$
30,000$
35,000$
40,000$
Books$and$
Magazines$
Retail$ Payments$ Lifestyle$ Credit$cards$ Men's$
magazines$
Travel$Service$ Beauty$and$
fashion$
Kids$and$
Family$
Shopping$
Guides$
Audien
ce(Size((tho
usan
ds)(
Source:(comScore(Note:(Includes(both(mobile(web(and(app(audience(
Top(Mobile(Categories(By(Audience(Growth,(Oct.(2011(vs.(Oct(2012((U.S.)((
Oct.$2011$ Oct.$2012$
Even among the largest mobile categories
25%$
32%$
30%$ 26%$
26%$28%$
40%$30%$
37%$ 36%$
0$
10,000$
20,000$
30,000$
40,000$
50,000$
60,000$
70,000$
80,000$
90,000$
100,000$
Weather$ Search$ Maps$ News$ Sports$ Entertainment$News$
Banking$ Movie$Info$ Tech$news$ Restaurant$Info$
Audien
ce(Size((tho
usan
ds)(
Source:$comScore$Note:$Includes$both$mobile$web$and$app$audience$
Top(Mobile(Categories(By(Audience(Size,(Oct.(2011(vs.(Oct(2012((U.S.)((
Oct.$2011$ Oct.$2012$
Mobile consumers glued to games, entertainment, and social networks
Games&43%&
Social&Networking&26%&
Entertainment&10%&
U<li<es&10%&
Other&11%&
Global&iOS&&&Android&Time&Spent&Per&App&Category&
Source: Flurry, November 2012
In 2013, we’ll top 1 million apps on Android and iOS
2" 20"80"
200"250"
350"
600"
700"
28"
160"
250"
400" 425"
500"
650"
800"
Mar"09" Dec"09" Aug"10" May"11" Jul"11" Oct"11" Jun"12" Jan"13"
Available(Apps,(iOS(vs.(Android((thousands)(
Android" iOS"Source:(Apple,(Google,(Flurry,(news(reports"
Downloads continue to grow frantically
0"
5,000,000,000"
10,000,000,000"
15,000,000,000"
20,000,000,000"
25,000,000,000"
30,000,000,000"
35,000,000,000"
40,000,000,000"
45,000,000,000"
7/1/08"
9/1/08"
11/1/08"
1/1/09"
3/1/09"
5/1/09"
7/1/09"
9/1/09"
11/1/09"
1/1/10"
3/1/10"
5/1/10"
7/1/10"
9/1/10"
11/1/10"
1/1/11"
3/1/11"
5/1/11"
7/1/11"
9/1/11"
11/1/11"
1/1/12"
3/1/12"
5/1/12"
7/1/12"
9/1/12"
11/1/12"
1/1/13"
Apple%App%Store%Downloads%
And time spent in apps continues to skyrocket
70# 72# 70#66#
94#
127#
0#
20#
40#
60#
80#
100#
120#
140#
Dec#2010# Dec#2011# Dec#2012#
Minutes(Per(Day(
Source:(comScore,(Alexa,(U.S.(Bureau(Of(Labor(Sta7s7cs,(Flurry(Analy7cs(
U.S.(Web(vs.(Mobile(App(Consump:on(
Web#Browsing# Mobile#Apps#
Mobile gaming population has reached ~35%
0%#
5%#
10%#
15%#
20%#
25%#
30%#
35%#
40%#
Feb#10#
Apr#10#
May#10#
Jun#10#
Jul#10#
Aug#10#
Sept#10#
Oct#10#
Nov#10#
Dec#10#
Jan#11#
Feb#11#
Mar#11#
Apr#11#
May#11#
Jun#11#
Jul#11#
Aug#11#
Sept#11#
Oct#11#
Nov#11#
Dec#11#
Jan#12#
Feb#12#
Mar#12#
Apr#12#
May#12#
June#12#
July#12#
Aug#12#
Sep#12#
Oct#12#
Nov#12#
%"of"m
obile"pop
ula-
on"th
at"has"played"a"game"on
"their"p
hone
"
Source:(comScore(
U.S."Mobile"Gaming"Popula-on"
(Games suck up the most user time)
Games&43%&
Social&Networking&26%&
Entertainment&10%&
U<li<es&10%&
Other&11%&
Global&iOS&&&Android&Time&Spent&Per&App&Category&
Source: Flurry, November 2012
(And are the biggest money makers)
But, games aside, there’s a problem with the whole
mobile story … where’s the money?
Mobile app revenues are smaller than you think
$0#
$500#
$1,000#
$1,500#
$2,000#
$2,500#
$3,000#
$3,500#
$4,000#
$4,500#
2008# 2009# 2010# 2011# 2012#
(millions))
Source:(news(reports,(company(releases#
Apple)App)Store)Revenues)
~$4 billion across over 800,000 apps is significant but
won’t create the next generation of Internet giants
Most app downloads are free
Mobile'App'Store'Downloads,'Free'vs.'Paid:'2011'
Source:(Garner,(September(2012(
Total'Downloads'
Free$Downloads$89%$
So this …
0"
10,000"
20,000"
30,000"
40,000"
50,000"
60,000"
70,000"
80,000"
90,000"
100,000"
3/2011" 4/2011" 5/2011" 6/2011" 7/2011" 8/2011" 9/2011" 10/2011"11/2011"12/2011" 1/2012" 2/2012" 3/2012" 4/2012" 5/2012" 7/2012" 7/2012" 8/2012" 9/2012"
Total&&Users&
(thousands)&
Instagram&Es5mated&Users&
Source:(news(reports,(company(releases,(BII(Es6mates(
… and this …
0"
2,500"
5,000"
7,500"
10,000"
12,500"
15,000"
17,500"
20,000"
Dec"09" Mar"10" Jun"10" Sept"10" Dec"10" Mar"11" Jun"11" Sept"11" Dec"11" Mar"12"
(tho
usan
ds)+
Foursquare+Users+
Source:(news(reports,(company(releases(
Have not necessarily translated to $$$
The mobile platform wars play a role in the monetization gap
In terms of operating systems, mobile is a two-‐horse race
Android'
Apple'
Blackberry'
Windows'
Other'
0%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
40%#
50%#
60%#
70%#
80%#
90%#
100%#
Q1#2009# Q2#2009# Q3#2009# Q4#2009# Q1#2010# Q2#2010# Q3#2010# Q4#2010# Q1#2011# Q2#2011# Q3#2011# Q4#2011# Q1#2012# Q2#2012# Q3#2012#Source:(Gartner,(IDC,(Strategy(Analy5cs,(BI(Intelligence(es5mates,(and(company(filings#
Global'Mobile'Pla:orm'Market'Share'
Android has by far the largest platform for smartphones
Android'
Apple'
Blackberry'
Symbian'
Other'
Microso8'
0%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
40%#
50%#
60%#
70%#
80%#
90%#
100%#
Q3#2009# Q4#2009# Q1#2010# Q2#2010# Q3#2010# Q4#2010# Q1#2011# Q2#2011# Q3#2011# Q4#2011# Q1#2012# Q2#2012# Q3#2012#
Share'of'Global'Unit'
Sales'
Source:(Gartner(
Smartphone'Market'Share'By'OS'(Global)'
Apple dominates the tablet market, with Android making a run
iPad%
Android%
Kindle%Fire%
Nook%Blackberry%
0%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
40%#
50%#
60%#
70%#
80%#
90%#
100%#
Q2#2010# Q3#2010# Q4#2010# Q1#2011# Q2#2011# Q3#2011# Q4#2011# Q1#2012# Q2#2012# Q3#2012#
Tablet%Market%Share%By%Pla9orm%
Source:(Es+mates(based(on(informa+on(from(IDC,(Strategy(Analy+cs,(and(company(filings#
So Apple users are a minority … but its platform pays 4X better
Cross%Pla)orm+Revenues:+iOS+vs.+Android+
Source:(Flurry(Analy/cs,(June(2012(
iOS+
Android'24%'
Which is why it has developer’s attention
iPhone'
Android'Phone'
iPad'
Android'Tablet'
Windows''Phone'
Blackberry'
HTML5'
Kindle'Fire'
Windows'8'Tablets'
0%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
40%#
50%#
60%#
70%#
80%#
90%#
100%#
1Q11# 2Q11# 3Q11# 4Q11# 1Q12# 2Q12# 3Q12# 4Q12#
Developer'Interest'In'PlaBorms'
Source:(Appcelerator(
And why Apple has dominated app revenues
Apple%iOS%
Android%%
Other%
$0#
$500#
$1,000#
$1,500#
$2,000#
$2,500#
$3,000#
$3,500#
$4,000#
2008# 2009# 2010# 2011#
(millions)%
Mobile%App%Revenue%By%Pla<orm%
Source:(iSuppli,(Forrester(Research,(company(releases,(BII(es8mates(
And has the most new project starts
63%$73%$
75%$ 73%$ 69%$37%$
27%$
25%$27%$
31%$
0$
2$
4$
6$
8$
10$
12$
14$
16$
18$
20$
1Q11$ 2Q11$ 3Q11$ 4Q11$ 1Q12$
Total&New&Project&Starts&(thousands)&
New&Project&Starts,&iOS&vs.&Android&
iOS$ Android$Source:(Flurry(Analy/cs,(January(20116March(2012(
Android’s lagging monetization has partly been a function of its fragmentation problem
Donut&1%&
Eclair&4%&
Froyo&14%&
Gingerbread&58%&
Honeycomb&2%&
Ice&Cream&Sandwich&21%&
Jelly&Bean&1%&
Android'Pla+orm'Distribu2on,'September'2012'
Source:(developer.android.com&
Android can’t get its users to update to more modern versions of the system
But in 2013 Android will make headway on this, and it already has
Donut&0%&
Eclair&2%&
Froyo&9%&
Gingerbread&48%&
Honeycomb&2%&
Ice&Cream&Sandwich&29%&
Jelly&Bean&10%&
Android'Pla+orm'Distribu2on,'January'2013'
Source:(developer.android.com&
Expect the Android/iOS monetization gap to narrow
However, because of Android’s massive audience base, revenue-‐per-‐user will
still be low
Mobile advertising will grab the spotlight in 2013
Many look at this
45%$
25%$
17%$
4%$
9%$7%$
44%$
26%$
16%$
6%$8%$ 8%$
43%$
26%$
15%$
9%$7%$ 7%$
42%$
26%$
14%$12%$
6%$ 5%$
0%$
5%$
10%$
15%$
20%$
25%$
30%$
35%$
40%$
45%$
50%$
TV$ Online$ Radio$ Mobile$ Print$ Other$
Source:(eMarketer,(October(2012(
U.S.$Consumer$Media$Consump2on$Share$
2009$ 2010$ 2011$ 2012$
Tripled since 2009
And this
42%$
25%$22%$
11%$
1%$
43%$
7%$
26%$
15%$
10%$
TV$ Print$ Web$ Radio$ Mobile$
2011$U.S.$Ad$Spending$vs.$Consumer$Time$Spent$By$Media$
Ad$Spend$Per$Media$ Time$Spent$Per$Media$Source: Mary Meeker (KPCB), eMarketer, IAB
9% gap
And assume mobile advertising will skyrocket
But it’s been slow to scale
$358%
$1,012%
$2,162% $2,162%
$3,698%
$80% $160%$392%
$806%
$1,171%
$55%$267%
$907%
$1,920%
$4,621%
$0%
$500%
$1,000%
$1,500%
$2,000%
$2,500%
$3,000%
$3,500%
$4,000%
$4,500%
$5,000%
Year%1% Year%2% Year%3% Year%4% Year%5%
Compara've*U.S.*Adver'sing*Media*Annual*$*Revenue*Growth*(First*5*Years)*
Broadcast%TV% Mobile% Internet%
Source:((IAB,(McCann1Erickson,(BIA1Kelsey,(BII(es9mates( Note:(Adjusted(for(infla9on(
And it’s still a pretty small slice of digital
Mobile'
$0#
$5#
$10#
$15#
$20#
$25#
$30#
$35#
$40#
2007# 2008# 2009# 2010# 2011# 2012E#
(billions)'
U.S.'Digital'Adver7sing'Revenues'
Source:((IAB,(BIA-Kelsey,(BII(es2mates(
But maybe there’s a good reason for that revenue gap …
The screen is really small
That drags on mobile ad prices, or CPMs
$3.50&
$0.75&
Desktop&Internet& Mobile&Internet&
Effec%ve'CPM,'Desktop'vs.'Mobile'
Source:(comScore,(Vivaki,(Mobclix(Exchange(
The ecosystem is confusing
And incredibly fractured
For now, the lion’s share of mobile ad spend is still going to search
Search'49%'
Display'42%'
Messaging'9%'
Es#mated)2012)Mobile)Ad)Spend)By)Format)
Source:(eMarketer,(September(2012(
(Which means Google … but even Google has mobile headaches)
Google&
Yahoo!& bing&
0%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
40%#
50%#
60%#
70%#
80%#
90%#
100%#
Dec#08#
Mar#09#
Jun#09#
Sep#09#
Dec#09#
Mar#10#
Jun#10#
Sep#10#
Dec#10#
Mar#11#
Jun#11#
Sep#11#
Dec#11#
Mar#12#
Jun#12##
Sep#12#
Dec#12#
Global&Mobile&Search&Market&Share&
Source:(Global(StatCounter(
Year-‐on-‐year, Google CPC growth negative, partly because of cheap mobile clicks
!20%%
!15%%
!10%%
!5%%
0%%
5%%
10%%
15%%
4Q09% 1Q10% 2Q10% 3Q10% 4Q10% 1Q11% 2Q11% 3Q11% 4Q11% 1Q12% 2Q12% 3Q12% 4Q12%
Google&CPC&Growth&
Source:(Company(data,(Evercore(Group(LLC(Research(
A few big companies with good mobile ad formats can make mobile ads pay
Mobile'
$0#
$200#
$400#
$600#
$800#
$1,000#
$1,200#
1Q10# 2Q10# 3Q10# 4Q10# 1Q11# 2Q11# 3Q11# 4Q11# 1Q12# 2Q12# 3Q12#
Total'Ad'Revenues'(millions)'
Facebook'Ad'Revenues'
But until the industry streamlines and consolidates, smaller
publishers won’t reap the benefits
There are some encouraging signals …
Machine-‐buying and automated real-‐time bidding may help mobile advertising scale
!$#!!!!
!$1,000!!
!$2,000!!
!$3,000!!
!$4,000!!
!$5,000!!
!$6,000!!
!$7,000!!
!$8,000!!
2010! 2011! 2012E! 2013E! 2014E! 2015E! 2016E!
Millions'Of'U
SD''
Source:(eMarketer(
RTB'Digital'Display'Ad'Spend'To'Hit'$6'Billion'In'2015'(PC'and'Mobile)'
More mobile video ads and location-‐based ads will lift CPMs
!$10.00!!
!$5.00!!
!$5.00!!
!$3.50!!
!$(!!!! !$2.00!! !$4.00!! !$6.00!! !$8.00!! !$10.00!! !$12.00!!
Flurry!video!ads!
Adsmobi!video!ads!
LSN!Mobile!local!ads!!
xAd!local!
Source:(Ad(pla.orms,(BII(Research,(Greg(Sterling,(Opus(Research(
CPMs%For%Selected%Mobile%Ad%Pla3orms%
More opportunities for TV-‐style video ads as consumers watch more and longer videos
60%$48%$
71%$
94%$
0%$
10%$
20%$
30%$
40%$
50%$
60%$
70%$
80%$
90%$
100%$
Desktop$ Smartphone$ Tablet$ Connected$TV$
Percen
t'Of'A
ll'Ho
urs'W
atched
'
Video'Length'
Time'Watched'By'Video'Length'And'Device'
>$10$min$ 6$to$10$min$ 3$to$6$min$ 1$to$3$min$ <$1$min$Source:(Ooyala,(Q3(2012(
Tablets provide a boost to mobile ad prices
0%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
40%#
50%#
60%#
70%#
80%#
90%#
100%#
March# April# May# June## July# August#
CPC#As#Percentage#of#Desktop
##
Source:(Performics(
Tablets(Have(Edge(Over(Smartphones(on(CPC(For(Search(Ads(
Meanwhile, the mobile ad industry is just starting to consolidate and simplify …
So, in revenue terms, “Freemium” and in-‐app commerce remains the
top app business model
But advertising is now the most popular monetization tool
33%#34%#
19%#18%#
12%#
38%#
32%#
26%#25%#
12%#
0%#
5%#
10%#
15%#
20%#
25%#
30%#
35%#
40%#
Adver1sing# Pay#Per#Download# In>App#Purchases# Freemium# Subscrip1ons#
Source:(Developer(Economics(2013(
%"Of"Developers"Who"Use"Following"Mone6za6on"Models"
Jan>12# Jan>13#
What are other trends to watch in 2013?
Mobile payments are growing exponentially
$0#
$2,000#
$4,000#
$6,000#
$8,000#
$10,000#
$12,000#
$14,000#
$16,000#
2008# 2009# 2010# 2011# 2012#
Total&&Payment&Volume&(millions)&
PayPal&Mobile&Payments&Processed&
Now 10 percent of PayPal’s payments processed
Mobile'
$0#
$30,000#
$60,000#
$90,000#
$120,000#
$150,000#
2008# 2009# 2010# 2011# 2012#
Total''Payment'Volume'(millions)'
PayPal'Payments'Processed'
Square now at over $25 million a day
Payment(Volume(
Revenues(
$0#
$5,000#
$10,000#
$15,000#
$20,000#
$25,000#
$30,000#
3/11# 4/11# 5/11# 6/11# 7/11# 8/11# 9/11# 10/11#11/11#12/11# 1/12# 2/12# 3/12# 4/12# 5/12# 6/12# 7/12## 8/12# 9/12# 10/12#11/12#
(Tho
usan
ds)(
Source:(news(reports,(company(releases#
Square(Es9mated(Daily(Payment(Volume(and(Revenues(
Payments should get a boost from increased mobile traffic to ecommerce sites
PC#
Smartphone#Tablet#
0%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
40%#
50%#
60%#
70%#
80%#
90%#
100%#
Q1#2011# Q2#2011# Q3#2011# Q4#2011# Q1#2012# Q2#2012# Q3#2012#Source:(Monetate(
Ecommerce#Website#Traffic#By#Device#
Tablet shoppers boost ecommerce because they tend to complete purchases on their device
55%#
28%#
Tablets# Smartphones#
Source:(Adobe,(Nov.0Dec.(2012(
Mobile'Shoppers'(Percentage'of'owners'that'have'made'a'purchase'on'their'device)'
And Because They Are Engaged Shoppers
47%$ 47%$
48%$
49%$
52%$
44%$
45%$
46%$
47%$
48%$
49%$
50%$
51%$
52%$
53%$
Support$for$loyalty$programs$
Support$for$couponing$ Ability$to$purchase$directly$from$the$app$
Images$and$slideshows$of$products$at$different$angles$
Money$saving$offers$
%"Of"S
hopp
ers"O
n"Tablet"App
s"Who
"Think
"Following"Ap
p"Ch
aracteris;c"Is"Im
portan
t""
Source:(Adobe,(Nov.0Dec.(2012((
Tablet"Shoppers"Are"Looking"For"Bargains,"But"Also"Rich"Product"Images"
Not all ecommerce mobile volume is cannibalized from desktop, at eBay 1/3 of it is
incremental
5%#
9%#
2%# 4%#
0%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
40%#
50%#
60%#
70%#
80%#
90%#
100%#
2011# 2012e#
Sources:)eBay,)Morgan)Stanley)Research)*Volume)is)Gross)Merchandise)Value)(GMV),)or)value)of)all)merchandise)transacted)))
Mobile'Transac.on'Volume*'Grows'On'eBay'To'13%'Of'Total'
Desktop#Volume# Mobile#Volume#Cannibalized#From#Desktop# Incremental#Mobile#Volume#
2013-‐ THE BOTTOM LINE • Tablet sales make a huge leap this year, driven by falling prices and the growth of mini-‐tablets.
• Smartphone growth slows in the West with huge consequences for platform operators, handset manufacturers, and, eventually, app developers.
• Mobile apps have yet to effectively monetize a huge user base and will refocus on monetization strategies.
• Mobile advertising needs to consolidate and streamline if smaller mobile properties are to rely on it.
Thanks!