2014 Asia Olefins & Aromatics Market Review and · PDF file2014 Asia Olefins & Aromatics...

16 May 2014

PEACH Hall Pattaya Thailand

General Matter and Raw Materials Committee

Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC)

2014 Asia Olefins amp Aromatics Market

Review and Outlook

Peh Soo Hwee and Ong Sheau Ling

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wwwiciscom

Agenda

Asia ethylene and propylene price trends Jan-May 2014

Factors shaping the outlook for the Asia olefins markets

Challenges ahead for cracker operators in Asia

wwwiciscom

Asia olefins price trends from Jan-early May 2014

Highest since Aug

2008

Near 10-mth low

Source ICIS

bull NE Asia C2 at multi-

year high in Janrsquo14

as tight supply

offset soft Chinese

derivative demand

bull C3 down in Q1rsquo14

hurt by ample

supply slowdown in

end-user demand in

China

wwwiciscom

Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook

Three main areas

Upstream naphtha costs and impact on C2 margins

Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom

Short-term NE Asia ethylene margins

wwwiciscom

Short-term SE Asia ethylene margins

wwwiciscom


Three main areas

Upstream naphtha costs

Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom

2013 World Ethylene Production

Source ICIS Consulting

NE Asia capacity growth driven by MTO cracker projects in China some

capacity losses in Japan

wwwiciscom Source ICIS Consulting

NE Asia capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China

2013 World Propylene Production

wwwiciscom

At least 20 Asian crackers will be shut for maintenance in 2014 mostly in H1

wwwiciscom

2014 Asia propylene plant turnaround schedule

Month Company Location C3 unit Capacity Turnaround dates

Feb PTTGC Map Ta Phut Thailand PDH 100000 9 Feb to week of 24 Mar

Taekwang Industrial Ulsan South Korea PDH 300000 12 Feb to 10 Mar

JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Marifu Japan FCC 50000 20 Feb to 1 Apr

Mar JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Mizushima Japan FCC (B) 90000 20 Mar to 19 May

JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Kawasaki Japan OCU 140000 25 Mar for around 50 days

FPCC Mailiao Taiwan No 1 RFCC 375000 29 Mar to early Jul

FPCC Mailiao Taiwan OCU 250000 27 Mar to end-May

Apr GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea FCC 250000 Mid-Apr to 10 May

May SK Energy Ulsan South Korea FCC No 1 150000 21 May to mid-Jul

Source Industry

Supply from Japan Taiwan and South Korea in Q2 rsquo14 likely

constrained by several maintenance shutdowns

wwwiciscom

Cracker projects in Asia amp Middle East 2013-2016

Source Industry

Over 15m tonnes of new cracker capacities coming on stream in Asia amp Mideast

wwwiciscom

MTOMTP projects in China 2013-2015

Source Industry

Company Location C2 (lsquo000 tyr) C3 (lsquo000 tyr) Start up schedule

Ningbo Heyuan Chemical Zhenhai Zhejiang province 200 400 Feb 2013

Wison (Nanjing) Clean Energy Nanjing Jiangsu province 135 160 Sept 2013

Yunlin Energy Chemical Co Yulin Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2014

Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry Ningdong Ningxia province 500 Jun 2014

Shandong Shenda Chemical Co Tenzhou Shandong province 200 200 Q3 2014

Shandong Yangmei Hengtong Chemical Linyi Shandong province 120 180 Sept 2014

Pucheng Clean Energy Chemical Pucheng Shaanxi province 300 400 Dec 2014

Zhengda (Changzhou) New Material Changzhou Jiangsu province 165 165 End-2014

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai province 160 170 Q4 2014

Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co Ningdong Ningxia province 300 300 Q4 2014

Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy Technology Jiaxing Zhejiang province 300 300 Q1 2015

Shanxi Coking (Group) Co Hongdong Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2015

Mengda New Energy Chemical Base Development Co Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q2 2015

Shaanxi Shenmu Chemical Shenmu Shaanxi province 300 300 Q4 2015

XinAo Group Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q4 2015

Coal-based methanol to be an important alternative feedstock to naphtha 15 projects to start up during

2013-2015

wwwiciscom

Propylene projects in Asia 2013-2016

Source Industry

Company Location Facility Completion schedule (C3 capacity in 000

tonnesyr)

2013 2014 2015 2016

Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group Tianjin China PDH 600

Ningbo Haiyue New Materials Co Ningbo Zhejiang province China PDH 600 (mid-H2)

Zhejiang Satellite Energy Co Pinghu Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)

Shaoxing Sanyuan Petrochemical Shaoxing Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)

Yantai Wanhua Group Yantai Shandong province China PDH 750 (year-

end)

Zhangjiagang Yangzijiang Petrochemical Zhangjiagang Jiangsu province China PDH 600 (year-

end) 600

Haiwei Group Hengshui Hebei province China PDH 500

Fujian Meide Petrochemical Fuqing Fujian province China PDH 660

SK Gas Advanced Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 600

Hyosung Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 300

Pertamina Cilcap Indonesia RFCC 115

Pertamina Balongan Indonesia ROPP 178

GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea RFCC 250

Asiarsquos C3 capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China up to 285m tonnesyear to

start up in 2014

wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom

2013 World Ethylene Consumption


NE Asia made up 26 of global demand totalling 13378m tonnes in

2013 driven by strong downstream expansions in China

wwwiciscom


Backed by strong downstream growth in China NE Asia made up 38 of global

demand totalling 8571m tonnes in 2013

2013 World Propylene Consumption

wwwiciscom

China PEPP capacity to grow at slower pace from 2015

10000 tonnesyr

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

LDPE HDPE LLDPE PE PP Granule

Source ICIS Chemease

wwwiciscom

Ethylene downstream projects 2014-2015

Source Industry

Company Location Product Capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start up schedule

Samsung Total Daesan South Korea EVALDPE 240 Feb 2014

USI Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan EVALDPE 2x45 Q4 2015

FPC Ningbo Zhejiang province China EVA 72 (first phase) Q4 2014

Saudi International Petrochemical Jubail Industrial City Saudi Arabia EVALDPE 200 Apr 2014

SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea MLLDPEelastomer

plastomer 230 (MLLDPE) May 2014

SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea SM 300 Apr 2014

Abel Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China SM 500 End 2014

Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Heze Shandong province China SM 200 End 2014

Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Heze Shandong province China SM 100 End 2014

Leasty Chemical Jiangyin Jiangsu province China SM 500 2015

Oxiranchem Yangzhou Yangzhou Jiangsu province China EO 200 Q4 2014Q1 2015

Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China EO 200 End-2015

Korea Petrochemical Industry Onsan South Korea EOEG 200 (EG) Oct 2014

Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Jiaxing Zhejiang province China EOEG 380 Early 2015

PT Asahimas Chemical Cilegon Baten province Indonesia PVC 250 End 2015

Ningxia Younglight Energy Chemical Yinchuan Ningxia province VAM 450 Q2 2014

Exports from South Korea to fall from 2014 due to new domestic downstream

capacity

wwwiciscom

Propylene downstream projects 2014-2015

Source Industry

Company Location Product Capacity

(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start up schedule

Chang Chun Petrochemical Panjin Liaoning province China ECH 48 2014

Kingboard Chemical Huizhou Guangdong province

China Phenolacetone 7545 Q2 2014

Formosa Chemicals amp Fibre Corp (FCFC)

Ningbo Zhejiang province China Phenolacetone 300180 Early Q4 2014

Kumho Yeosu South China Phenolacetone 300180 H2 2015

PTT Phenol Map Tap Phut Thailand Phenolacetone 250155 Q4 2015

Wanzhou Petrochemical Nantong Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014 (phase 1)

BASF-YPC Nanjing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014

Zhejiang Satellite Pinghu Zhejiang province AA 320 H1 2014 (phase 1 started up in Q1)

Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Mid-H2 2014

Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) Ningbo Zhejiang province China AA 160 Q3 2014

Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q4 2014Q12015

Shanghai Huayi Shanghai China AA 320 Partial start up in 2015

Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China AA 300 Q4 2014

Nippon Shokubai Himeiji Japan AA 80 H2 2014

Showa DenkoToa Gosei Oita Japan AA 80 Q2 2014

Jishen Chemical Jilin Jinlin province China PO 300 One of three lines started up in Q1 2014

Shandong Sanyue Chemical Binzhou Shandong province PO 80 Q2 2014

Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China PO 240 End 2014early 2015

Nanjing Jinling Huntsman New Materials

Nanjing Jiangsu province China PO 240 2015

Luxi Petrochemical Liaocheng Shandong province

China 2-EH 150 2014

Chinarsquos C3 downstream markets to see continued strong expansion particularly in

acrylic acid (AA) and phenol sectors

wwwiciscom

Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014

bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance

in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets

bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by

demand from China South Korea

bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak

economic climate

bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays

bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the

global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives

wwwiciscom

Benzene

bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review

bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-

2016

bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to

either the US or China

Toluene


bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation

Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014

Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes

Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME

Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran

Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC

Figures for the year of 2013

Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt

Source customs KITA IE Singapore

Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt

Import (South Korean

origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne

Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea

Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and

plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar

Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak

in end 2012 Brief recovery

11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()

Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014

China South Korea Japan at 75 of total

Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude

Chinarsquos coal-based

BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom

Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m

tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date

Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013

on-spec 2 Jan 80-90

Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014

PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014

Saudi Aramco Total Refining and

Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)

Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014

ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical

Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)

Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)

Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island

Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)

Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)

SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)

Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015

Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016

Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016

GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017

Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources

wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol

Downstream average operating rates to slip

Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt

Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite

estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016

Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production

bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be

reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773

bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86

bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports

staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m

tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne

BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan

Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around

$300tonne for H2 2014

Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th

FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan

S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume

in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014

Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)

Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea

Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank

China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on

lower-priced domestic lots

Source China customs

~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth

US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU

Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan

Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC


China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt

Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources

Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne

TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China

Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014

TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins

Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088

CF = correlation factor

CF = 096

Historical peak

in end 2012 Six-month

high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42

Chinarsquos downstream distribution

TDPSTDPHDA

Petrochemical products

Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)

China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily

to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending

Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es

Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()

0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea

China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping

inventories forward imports will subject to demand



US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China

Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar

New Year but declined beginning Apr

Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt

Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt

Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption

wwwiciscom Source Industry sources

tonnesyear

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014

wwwiciscom

Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in

2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions

BZ factors TOL factors

- High run rates of existing aromatics units

- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on

squeezed PX margins

- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul

BZ prices

TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window

- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand

- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul

BZTOL factors

- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open

- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens

- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule

- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels

- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule

for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun

- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty

Asian European arrivals

- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2

- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts

- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in

China gloomy macroeconomics

- Competitively-priced alternative blending components

wwwiciscom

Conclusion

bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe

supressed

bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the

US

bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014

bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea

bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014

bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels

wwwiciscom



















wwwiciscom

Agenda




wwwiciscom


Highest since Aug

2008

Near 10-mth low

Source ICIS



as tight supply

offset soft Chinese

derivative demand


hurt by ample

supply slowdown in

end-user demand in

China

wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom


wwwiciscom


wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom








wwwiciscom


wwwiciscom












Source Industry



wwwiciscom


Source Industry


wwwiciscom


Source Industry


















2013-2015

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


tonnesyr)

2013 2014 2015 2016






end)


end) 600









start up in 2014

wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom


10000 tonnesyr

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



wwwiciscom


Source Industry




















capacity

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start up schedule
























China 2-EH 150 2014



wwwiciscom







economic climate




wwwiciscom

Benzene



2016



Toluene





Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom

Agenda




wwwiciscom


Highest since Aug

2008

Near 10-mth low

Source ICIS



as tight supply

offset soft Chinese

derivative demand


hurt by ample

supply slowdown in

end-user demand in

China

wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom


wwwiciscom


wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom








wwwiciscom


wwwiciscom












Source Industry



wwwiciscom


Source Industry


wwwiciscom


Source Industry


















2013-2015

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


tonnesyr)

2013 2014 2015 2016






end)


end) 600









start up in 2014

wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom


10000 tonnesyr

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



wwwiciscom


Source Industry




















capacity

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start up schedule
























China 2-EH 150 2014



wwwiciscom







economic climate




wwwiciscom

Benzene



2016



Toluene





Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom


Highest since Aug

2008

Near 10-mth low

Source ICIS



as tight supply

offset soft Chinese

derivative demand


hurt by ample

supply slowdown in

end-user demand in

China

wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom


wwwiciscom


wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom








wwwiciscom


wwwiciscom












Source Industry



wwwiciscom


Source Industry


wwwiciscom


Source Industry


















2013-2015

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


tonnesyr)

2013 2014 2015 2016






end)


end) 600









start up in 2014

wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom


10000 tonnesyr

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



wwwiciscom


Source Industry




















capacity

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start up schedule
























China 2-EH 150 2014



wwwiciscom







economic climate




wwwiciscom

Benzene



2016



Toluene





Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom


wwwiciscom


wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom








wwwiciscom


wwwiciscom












Source Industry



wwwiciscom


Source Industry


wwwiciscom


Source Industry


















2013-2015

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


tonnesyr)

2013 2014 2015 2016






end)


end) 600









start up in 2014

wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom


10000 tonnesyr

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



wwwiciscom


Source Industry




















capacity

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start up schedule
























China 2-EH 150 2014



wwwiciscom







economic climate




wwwiciscom

Benzene



2016



Toluene





Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom


wwwiciscom


wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom








wwwiciscom


wwwiciscom












Source Industry



wwwiciscom


Source Industry


wwwiciscom


Source Industry


















2013-2015

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


tonnesyr)

2013 2014 2015 2016






end)


end) 600









start up in 2014

wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom


10000 tonnesyr

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



wwwiciscom


Source Industry




















capacity

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start up schedule
























China 2-EH 150 2014



wwwiciscom







economic climate




wwwiciscom

Benzene



2016



Toluene





Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom


wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom








wwwiciscom


wwwiciscom












Source Industry



wwwiciscom


Source Industry


wwwiciscom


Source Industry


















2013-2015

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


tonnesyr)

2013 2014 2015 2016






end)


end) 600









start up in 2014

wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom


10000 tonnesyr

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



wwwiciscom


Source Industry




















capacity

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start up schedule
























China 2-EH 150 2014



wwwiciscom







economic climate




wwwiciscom

Benzene



2016



Toluene





Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom








wwwiciscom


wwwiciscom












Source Industry



wwwiciscom


Source Industry


wwwiciscom


Source Industry


















2013-2015

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


tonnesyr)

2013 2014 2015 2016






end)


end) 600









start up in 2014

wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom


10000 tonnesyr

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



wwwiciscom


Source Industry




















capacity

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start up schedule
























China 2-EH 150 2014



wwwiciscom







economic climate




wwwiciscom

Benzene



2016



Toluene





Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom








wwwiciscom


wwwiciscom












Source Industry



wwwiciscom


Source Industry


wwwiciscom


Source Industry


















2013-2015

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


tonnesyr)

2013 2014 2015 2016






end)


end) 600









start up in 2014

wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom


10000 tonnesyr

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



wwwiciscom


Source Industry




















capacity

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start up schedule
























China 2-EH 150 2014



wwwiciscom







economic climate




wwwiciscom

Benzene



2016



Toluene





Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom













wwwiciscom


wwwiciscom












Source Industry



wwwiciscom


Source Industry


wwwiciscom


Source Industry


















2013-2015

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


tonnesyr)

2013 2014 2015 2016






end)


end) 600









start up in 2014

wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom


10000 tonnesyr

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



wwwiciscom


Source Industry




















capacity

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start up schedule
























China 2-EH 150 2014



wwwiciscom







economic climate




wwwiciscom

Benzene



2016



Toluene





Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom


wwwiciscom












Source Industry



wwwiciscom


Source Industry


wwwiciscom


Source Industry


















2013-2015

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


tonnesyr)

2013 2014 2015 2016






end)


end) 600









start up in 2014

wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom


10000 tonnesyr

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



wwwiciscom


Source Industry




















capacity

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start up schedule
























China 2-EH 150 2014



wwwiciscom







economic climate




wwwiciscom

Benzene



2016



Toluene





Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom












Source Industry



wwwiciscom


Source Industry


wwwiciscom


Source Industry


















2013-2015

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


tonnesyr)

2013 2014 2015 2016






end)


end) 600









start up in 2014

wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom


10000 tonnesyr

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



wwwiciscom


Source Industry




















capacity

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start up schedule
























China 2-EH 150 2014



wwwiciscom







economic climate




wwwiciscom

Benzene



2016



Toluene





Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom


Source Industry


wwwiciscom


Source Industry


















2013-2015

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


tonnesyr)

2013 2014 2015 2016






end)


end) 600









start up in 2014

wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom


10000 tonnesyr

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



wwwiciscom


Source Industry




















capacity

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start up schedule
























China 2-EH 150 2014



wwwiciscom







economic climate




wwwiciscom

Benzene



2016



Toluene





Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom


Source Industry


















2013-2015

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


tonnesyr)

2013 2014 2015 2016






end)


end) 600









start up in 2014

wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom


10000 tonnesyr

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



wwwiciscom


Source Industry




















capacity

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start up schedule
























China 2-EH 150 2014



wwwiciscom







economic climate




wwwiciscom

Benzene



2016



Toluene





Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom


Source Industry


tonnesyr)

2013 2014 2015 2016






end)


end) 600









start up in 2014

wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom


10000 tonnesyr

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



wwwiciscom


Source Industry




















capacity

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start up schedule
























China 2-EH 150 2014



wwwiciscom







economic climate




wwwiciscom

Benzene



2016



Toluene





Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom


Three main areas


Supply side factors

Demand side factors

wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom


10000 tonnesyr

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



wwwiciscom


Source Industry




















capacity

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start up schedule
























China 2-EH 150 2014



wwwiciscom







economic climate




wwwiciscom

Benzene



2016



Toluene





Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom


10000 tonnesyr

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



wwwiciscom


Source Industry




















capacity

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start up schedule
























China 2-EH 150 2014



wwwiciscom







economic climate




wwwiciscom

Benzene



2016



Toluene





Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom





wwwiciscom


10000 tonnesyr

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



wwwiciscom


Source Industry




















capacity

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start up schedule
























China 2-EH 150 2014



wwwiciscom







economic climate




wwwiciscom

Benzene



2016



Toluene





Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom


10000 tonnesyr

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



wwwiciscom


Source Industry




















capacity

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start up schedule
























China 2-EH 150 2014



wwwiciscom







economic climate




wwwiciscom

Benzene



2016



Toluene





Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom


Source Industry




















capacity

wwwiciscom


Source Industry


(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start up schedule
























China 2-EH 150 2014



wwwiciscom







economic climate




wwwiciscom

Benzene



2016



Toluene





Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom


Source Industry


(lsquo000 tonnesyr)

Start up schedule
























China 2-EH 150 2014



wwwiciscom







economic climate




wwwiciscom

Benzene



2016



Toluene





Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom







economic climate




wwwiciscom

Benzene



2016



Toluene





Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom

Benzene



2016



Toluene





Agenda

wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom

BENZENE (BZ)

US

EU

China

South

Korea

Japan

ME




Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

Import 885kt

Export 31kt


Import 464kt

Export 68kt

Import 54kt

Export 1395m t

Import

121kt

Export

767kt

Import 709kt India

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins) 640kt


origin) 102kt

wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Four-month

low

45-week high

Historical peak


11-week low

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

Na

me

pla

te c

ap

ac

ity (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

Japan

China

Growth ()



Source market

An

nu

al g

row

th ra

te (

)

exclude


BZ capacities in

2011-2012 45-5m ta

2013-2016 55-6m ta

wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom




on-spec 2 Jan 80-90



















wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom

55

15

10

11 5 4

49

17

12

13

6 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)



Source market

2013

at 309m

tonnes

2016 at 3675m

tonnes

ltd

ow

nstre

am

op

era

ting

rate

sgt

() N

am

ep

late

ca

pa

cit

y (

m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)




Source market

lto

pe

ratin

g ra

tes

gt (

)

inclusive of

Chinarsquos

coal-based

BZ

production

in

2011-2012

15-16m ta

2013-2016

2m ta

run rates at

around 50

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)

(m t

on

ne

sy

ea

r)


exports

excess production






tonnesyear

wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

Pric

e d

iffere

nce

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t

Ave~ $257t

Ave~ $371t

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

ton

ne

sm

on

th




Source customs ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

~ 761kta 634ktmth

~ 636kta 530ktmth

Breakeven level

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000J

an

12

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th


Middle East

India

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

FOB Korea






US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom

TOLUENE (TOL)

US

EU




China ME

South

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Thailand India

Africa

US

Import (Japan

South Korean

origins 126kt

Import 812kt

Export 08kt

Taiwan

Import 21kt

Export 327kt

Import 69kt

Export 327kt


Import

(Kandla port)

174kt

Import 24kt

Export 325kt

Import 105kt

Export 1063m t

wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

US

Dt

on

ne




Source ICIS

TD

P s

pre

ad

(US

Dto

nn

e)

Breakeven level

CF = 083

CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088


CF = 096

Historical peak


high

Nine-month

high

wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom

42

12

46

45

13

42


TDPSTDPHDA





Source ICIS

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)

kil

oto

nn

es


0

2011

2013

wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Ja

n1

2

Ma

r1

2

Ma

y1

2

Ju

l1

2

Se

p1

2

No

v1

2

Ja

n1

3

Ma

r1

3

Ma

y1

3

Ju

l1

3

Se

p1

3

No

v1

3

Ja

n1

4

Ma

r1

4

ton

ne

sm

on

th

Europe

US

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea


FOB Korea





US

Dto

nn

e

wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inve

nto

rie

s (

kil

oto

nn

es

)

south China

east China



Source ICIS

US

Dto

nn

e

Ave~ 181kt


Ave~ 138kt

Typical stock level

Healthy

consumption


tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom











tonnesyear



wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom






squeezed PX margins


BZ prices




BZTOL factors














wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom

Conclusion


supressed


US





wwwiciscom










wwwiciscom










Date post:	16-Mar-2018
Category:	Documents
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