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ROLE OF 2015 AGREEMENT FOR ADAPTATIONMichael MULLAN – Environment DirectorateJan CORFEE-MORLOT – Development Co-operation Directorate
Source: Based on Mullan et al (2013) – National Adaptation Planning: Lessons
from OECD Countries
2
Progress in adaptation planning from
2006 to 2013 in OECD countries
Source: OECD country survey – preliminary results; mutliple choice; 13
respondents
3
Focus on measures that deliver co-
benefits in OECD countries
Source: Mullan et al (2013) – National Adaptation Planning: Lessons from
OECD Countries
4
Mainstreamed financing of domestic
adaptation amongst OECD countries
• Understanding of resource needs increasing, but patchy
• No systematic collection of data on finance requirements, current
spending or extreme events
1. Common vision: political will and development of institutional structures;
2. Evolutionary approach: focus on current problems, with initial thinking about longer-term vulnerabilities;
3. Evidence to guide “transformational” changes is very limited;
4. Finance and capacity constraints remain major barriers.
5
Emerging findings in national planning
for Non-Annex 1 countries
Source: OECD (2015, forthcoming) – developed from Persson and Klein (2009) 6
1) Conditions for adaptation should be
viewed as an “ecosystem”
• Resonance with political imperatives and constraints• Engagement of external actors
Political commitment
• Identification of key interdependencies• Data presentation aligned to responsibilities• Stakeholder input as a means of raising awareness and building capacity
Institutions and processes
• Making tools easier to use• Providing rich underlying data for more sophisticated analyses
Tools and data
• Making the case for funding adaptation measures• Identifying the scale of contingent liabilities / residual risks
Resources
Climate risk and vulnerability assessments
Indicators for monitoring prioritised climate change risks
and vulnerabilities
Learning from adaptation approaches
National audits and climate expenditure reviews
2) Importance of pragmatism in
measuring success
7
1
2
3
4
• New OECD working papers:
• Methodological challenges
• National approaches
• Based on analysis of the systems used in Germany, UK, Mozambique and Nepal
8
1. Climate and development – two-way relationship: an example
from South East Asia
2. Evolution of climate change adaptation at the international level &
implications for action in developing countries
3. Official Development Assistance to Climate Change Adaptation
4. DAC-EPOC Task Team on Climate Change and Development
Co-operation
PART TWO –
Adaptation, Development and Development Co-operation
• Costly impacts, e.g. in the agricultural sector (figure). Coastal flooding costly
for growing cities, even with significant investment in adaptation
• Air pollution problems threaten health and well-being
• Need to integrate climate, adaptation and disaster risk reduction into land use
and infrastructure planning, align and strengthen local-national responses
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
OECDAmerica
OECDEurope
OECDPacific
Rest ofEurope
and Asia
LatinAmerica
MiddleEast &NorthAfrica
South &South-
East Asia
Sub-Saharan
Africa
World
Fisheries EnergyEcosystems HealthTourism Sea level riseAgriculture GDP
Climate change could have a large impact on GDP in Southeast Asia in 2060
Percent change in GDP compared to baseline (OECD, 2014)
Climate change threatens growth and development:
impacts to vary by region-- a Southeast Asia example
Evolution of adaptation at the international
level: implications for development policy
Slow integration of climate change adaptation into development
planning and policy in developing countries
Mainstreaming in development co-operation practice is mainly
driven by UNFCC-related processes:
• First through National Adaptation Programmes of Action NAPAs (2001)
for LDCs (by 2013 all LDCs had a NAPA);
• Most recently (as of 2010) through National Adaptation Plans (NAPs)
in all developing countries.
Development co-operation and development finance for
adaptation is increasing:
• GEF (Trust Fund, LDCF, SCCF) and soon the GCF (50:50
adaptation/mitigation allocation of finance over time)
• CIFs (e.g. the Strategic Climate Fund provides resources to the Pilot
Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR))
• Bilateral financial support
Official Development Finance to Climate
Change Adaptation
Source: OECD DAC Statistics, December 2014
• Total bilateral and multilateral
adaptation-related finance
reached over USD 14 bn in 2013.
• Total bilateral adaptation-related
aid by DAC members reached
USD 10.8 bn p.a. over 2012-13,
or 7% of bilateral commitments,
about 45% of climate-related
ODA
• For bilateral aid, 70% targets
adaptation as a significant
objective, reflecting
mainstreaming within on-going
development activities
Total adaptation-related finance2010-13, bilateral and multilateral commitments, USD billion,
constant 2012 prices,
annual and 2-year annual average
6%
7%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2010-11 2012-13 2013 (total)
Sh
are
of
tota
l O
DA
co
mm
itm
en
ts
US
D b
illio
n
Principal Significant % of total ODA commitments
Bil
ate
ral
Mu
ltila
tera
l
Adaptation-related bilateral aid is concentrated
in a few sectors and activity types…
Adaptation-related ODA by sector2010-13, bilateral commitments, USD billion, constant 2012 prices
The top 5 sectors receive 86% of adaptation-related development finance.
In 2013, multilaterals focused on General Environment Protection (17%);
agriculture, forestry and fishing (17%); and disaster risk reduction (10%)
General Environmental Protection reflects focus on adaptation planning and
policy formulation, research and education, and capacity-building
Source: OECD DAC Statistics, December 2014
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Water Supply andSanitation
Agriculture, Forestry,Fishing and Rural
Development
GeneralEnvironmental
Protection
Multisector Transport andStorage
Disaster RiskReduction and
Response
Sh
are
of
tota
l O
DA
co
mm
itm
en
ts
US
D b
illio
n
Principal Significant % of total ODA commitments
13
DAC-EPOC Task Team on Climate Change
and Development Co-operation
Since 2006, supports adaptation and development policy
dialogue :
• Sharing experience from policy practice;
• Promoting better adaptation in partner countries (e.g.,
alignment, data collection, monitoring and evaluation);
• Identifying, agreeing and communicating ways to improve
development co-operation for adaptation;
• Producing guidance (e.g., Integrating Climate Change
Adaptation into Development Co-operation, OECD 2009).
Recent work:
• Harmonising Climate Risk Management: Risk Screening &
Assessment Tools for Development – working paper
• Monitoring and Evaluation for Adaptation: Methodological and
Country Challenges – 2 new working papers
Future (2015-16) work to focus on national-local adaptation
planning and policy linkages, in the context of NAPs:
• Mechanisms to reduce, transfer and share climate risks;
• Climate-resilient urban development in developing countries.
Integrating
Climate Change
Adaptation into
Development
Co-operation
(2009)
THANK YOU!
OECD ENV – Adaptation to Climate Change
www.oecd.org/env/cc/adaptation.htm
OECD DCD Climate Change and Development
www.oecd.org/dac/environment-development/climate-change-development.htm
OECD DAC-CRS - Methods and data on climate change financing
www.oecd.org/dac/stats/rioconventions.htm
ROLE OF DEVELOPMENT CO-OPERATION
15
BACKGROUND MATERIAL
16
What evidence influenced the
prioritisation of adaptation strategies?
• Expert judgement and involvement of stakeholders are the most widely used techniques for prioritisation
• Limited uptake of cost-benefit / cost-effectiveness tools
2
4
7
3
13
13
Cost-benefit analysis
Cost-effectiveness analysis
Multi-criteria analysis
Uncertainty based approaches
Expert judgement
Stakeholder engagement/consultation
Includes multiple responses
17Source: OECD country survey – preliminary results; multiple choice; 13 respondents had undertaken
some form of prioritisation
Source: OECD country survey – preliminary results; mutliple choice; 13
respondents
18
Criteria used for prioritisation
Source: survey of OECD countries 19
Priority areas for improving data
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
For which sectors is it a priority to improve the evidence base? (multiple choice)
• Setting of baselines should be transparent – e.g., treatment of autonomous adaptation
• Greater emphasis on the social aspects of adaptation
• Identification of poorly-understood, but potentially significant risks– flexibility in the choice of methods for
analysis
Source: Mullan et al (2013) – National Adaptation Planning: Lessons from
OECD Countries
20
Lessons learned from quantitative
studies to date
3 PRIORITIES FOR SUPPORTING
IMPLEMENTATION
21