Date post: | 19-Oct-2014 |
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2014 HOUSING MARKET FORECASTOctober 10,2013Leslie Appleton‐Young, Vice President & Chief Economist
BREAKING NEWS
www.census.gov
THE ECONOMY
So many wildcards...Where to begin?
•October 1st Government Shut Down – Day 10• Impact of shut‐down? Depends on how long•Looming Oct 17th Debt Limit: $16.699 Trillion• Fed will likely begin “Tapering” next year• Future of Fannie and Freddie?•Viability/relevance of FHA•Tax Reform: Mortgage Interest Deduction
The Economic Impact of Government Shutdown
‐4%
‐3%
‐2%
‐1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Q1‐10
Q2‐10
Q3‐10
Q4‐10
Q1‐11
Q2‐11
Q3‐11
Q4‐11
Q1‐12
Q2‐12
Q3‐12
Q4‐12
Q1‐13
Q2‐13
1.7%
Gross Domestic Product: Growth is Stalling• 2012: 2.2%; 2013 Q2: 1.7%
ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE, CHAIN‐TYPE (2005) $
ANNUALLY QUARTERLY
2009 Largest Annual Drop since 1938 (‐3.4%)
SERIES: GDPSOURCE: US Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Unemployment: Cyclical & StructuralHeading Down: Lowest since 2008
9.4%
7.6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14% CA US
SERIES: Unemployment RateSOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division
‐150,000
‐100,000
‐50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
CA Added ~250k Jobs Aug‐12 to Aug‐13Recession Job Losses: 1.3 millionSince Jan’10: +805,700; ‐500,000 deficit
MONTH TO MONTH CHANGES
SERIES: Total Nonfarm EmploymentSOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
Silicon Valley Leads in Job Growth
SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.7%
0.9%
1.0%
1.1%
1.2%
1.4%
1.7%
1.8%
2.3%
3.1%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%
Modesto
Sacramento
Oakland
Inland Empire
Bakersfield
Stockton MSA
Fresno MSA
San Diego
Los Angeles
Ventura
San Francisco
Orange County
San Jose
August 2013: CA +1.5%, +233,900
Construction Jobs Fastest Growing
SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment By IndustrySOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division
‐0.5%
‐0.4%
‐0.3%
‐0.2%
0.0%
1.3%
1.4%
1.9%
2.2%
2.2%
2.4%
3.1%
3.6%
4.0%
4.2%
‐3% ‐2% ‐1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
GovernmentInformation
Nondurable GoodsDurable Goods
Retail TradeFinance & Insurance
Health Care & Social AssistanceProfessional, Scientific & Technical Services
Transportation, Warehousing & UtilitiesReal Estate & Rental & Leasing
Admistrative & Support & Waste ServicesWholesale Trade
Educational ServicesLeisure & Hospitality
Construction
August 2013: CA +1.5%, +233,900ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE
Metro Commercial Space Vacancy Rates
SOURCE: National Association of REALTORS®
2013 Q3
MSA Office Industrial Retail Multi‐Family
Los Angeles 16.0% 4.0% 6.0% 3.0%
Oakland‐East Bay 18.0% 9.2% 6.4% 2.5%
Orange County 17.0% 3.8% 5.4% 2.9%
Sacramento 21.2% 12.6% 12.9% 3.1%
San Bernardino/Riverside 23.6% 6.9% 9.8% 3.2%
San Diego 16.0% 7.0% 6.3% 2.1%
San Francisco 13.3% 11.2% 3.9% 3.1%
San Jose 18.6% 16.6% 6.1% 3.0%
Ventura 16.3% ‐ 8.8% 2.6%
Consumer Confidence: Better But…
September 2013: 79.7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120INDEX, 100=1985
SERIES: Consumer ConfidenceSOURCE: The Conference Board
CPI: Subdued for Now• August 2013: All Items +1.5% YTY; Core +1.8% YTY
‐3%
‐2%
‐1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Jan‐05
Jul‐0
5
Jan‐06
Jul‐0
6
Jan‐07
Jul‐0
7
Jan‐08
Jul‐0
8
Jan‐09
Jul‐0
9
Jan‐10
Jul‐1
0
Jan‐11
Jul‐1
1
Jan‐12
Jul‐1
2
Jan‐13
Jul‐1
3
All Items Core
ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE
SERIES: Consumer Price IndexSOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
HOUSING & MORTGAGE FINANCE
Mortgage Rates Up 1% Since MayTapering in 2014?
4.5%
2.6%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Jan‐05
Jul‐0
5
Jan‐06
Jul‐0
6
Jan‐07
Jul‐0
7
Jan‐08
Jul‐0
8
Jan‐09
Jul‐0
9
Jan‐10
Jul‐1
0
Jan‐11
Jul‐1
1
Jan‐12
Jul‐1
2
Jan‐13
Jul‐1
3
FRM ARM Federal Funds
SERIES: 30Yr FRM, 1Yr ARM, Federal FundsSOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
US Sales of Existing HomesAug.2013 Sales: 5,480,000 Units, +12.1% YTD, +13.2% YTY
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
SERIES: Existing Home SalesSOURCE: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
US Median Price of Existing HomesUS, August 2013: $213,500, Up 14.7% YTY
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
SERIES: Existing Home SalesSOURCE: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
$‐
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000 California US CA Price Trend
California vs. U.S. Median Prices• 1970‐2012
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Housing Affordability Hit by Mortgage Rate and Price Gains But Still Attractive
36%
60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80% CA US% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY
SERIES: Housing Affordability Index of Traditional BuyersSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CA Housing Affordability Index What Will Happen When Mortgage Rates Increase?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5%
39%37%
35%33% 31% 29%
27%25%
Q2‐2013 Median Price $415,770
20% Downpayment
INTEREST RATE
% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY, ALL ELSE CONSTANT
SERIES: Housing Affordability IndexSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CA Median Monthly Mortgage PaymentWhat Will Happen When Mortgage Rates Increase?
$0
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$2,000
3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5%
$1,402$1,494
$1,588 $1,685$1,786
$1,889$1,994 $2,102Q2‐2013 Median Price $415,770
20% Downpayment
INTEREST RATE
MONTHLY MORTGAGE
SERIES: Housing Affordability IndexSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CA Minimum Qualifying IncomeWhat Will Happen When Mortgage Rates Increase?
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5%
$75,218$78,869
$82,644 $86,538$90,548
$94,668$98,893 $103,220
Q2‐2013 Median Price $415,770
20% Downpayment
INTEREST RATE
MONTHLY MORTGAGE
SERIES: Housing Affordability IndexSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Mortgage Originations: 2005‐2013Refinance Share Dropping with Higher Rates
74.1%
25.9%
3.5%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80% Refinance Share (%) Purchase Share (%) FRMREFINANCE/PURCHASE SHARE 30YR FRM
SERIES: Mortgage OriginationsSOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association of America
Fannie & Freddie are the Market
Source: LPS
THE CALIFORNIA RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET
California’s Housing Cycles and Membership• 1970‐2012
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
‐
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Home Sales Membership
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CA Sales of Existing Detached HomesAugust 2013 Sales: 434,700 Units, ‐3.2% YTD, ‐1.9% YTY
‐
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
85% Equity “Retail” Sales in August
REOs, 4.7%
Short Sales, 10.2%
Other Distressed Sales (Not Specified),
0.4%
Equity Sales, 84.7%
SERIES: Distressed SalesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
California: Aug 2013
Share of Equity Sales Has Increased Sharply Since Early 2012
85.9%
10.3%
3.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% Equity Sales Short Sale REO
SERIES: Distressed SalesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
REO & Short SalesPercent of Total Sales, Southern California: August 2013
3% 1%5%
9%
2%
12%
7%
15%
15%
3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Los Angeles Orange Riverside San Bernardino San Diego
REO Sales Short Sales
SERIES: Distressed SalesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
REO & Short SalesPercent of Total Sales, Bay Area: August 2013
2% 1%3% 5%
1% 1%
7%4%
5% 5%4%
11%
2% 4%
14%
9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Alameda ContraCosta
Marin Napa SanMateo
SantaClara
Solano Sonoma
REO Sales Short Sales
SERIES: Distressed SalesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
REO & Short SalesPercent of Total Sales, Central Valley: August 2013
15%9% 7%
11% 10%5% 5%
2%7% 9%
14%
14%
12%
23%19%
13%
11%14% 22%
17% 13%
14%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35% REO Sales Short Sales
SERIES: Distressed SalesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
REO & Short SalesPercent of Total Sales, N CA & Central Coast
August 2013
7% 6% 9%
32%
14%
5% 6% 5%
33%
11%
3%9%
6% 8%5%
2%
6%20%
7% 8%
4%
17%
8%
9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40% REO Sales Short Sales
SERIES: Distressed SalesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Sales Share by Price Range
29%
19%
16%
10%
26%
18%17% 16%
13%
37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
$0 ‐ $200k $200 ‐ $300k $300 ‐ $400k $400 ‐ $500k $500k+
Aug‐12 Aug‐13
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes• California, August 2013: $441,330, Up 28.4% YTY
$‐
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000 P: May‐07$594,530
T: Feb‐09$245,230‐59% frompeak
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CA Underwater Mortgages Dropping Sharply
15.4%
2.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40% Negative Equity Share in CA Near Negative Equity Share in CA
SERIES: Underwater MortgagesSOURCE: CoreLogic
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Unsold Inventory Index• California, August 2013: 3.1 Months
Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Unsold Inventory Index Months of Supply
Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
Price Range (Thousand) Aug‐13 Jul‐13 Aug‐12
$1,000K+ 4.6 4.6 6.1
$750‐1000K 3.2 3.2 4.0
$500‐750K 3.0 2.8 3.1
$300‐500K 2.9 2.7 2.9
$0‐300K 2.8 2.7 2.8
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Change in Inventory by Price Range• (Year‐to‐Year)
‐32.9%
5.3%
18.6% 18.0%
11.0%
‐40%
‐30%
‐20%
‐10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
$0 ‐ $300k $300 ‐ $500k $500 ‐ $750k $750 ‐ $1000k $1000k+
Aug‐13
Tight Supply Across the Board
0
1
2
3
4
Equity Sales REO Sales Short Sales
3.1
2.3
2.9
SERIES: Distressed Unsold Inventory IndexSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
UNSOLD INVENTORY INDEX (MONTHS)
California: August 2013
Why is Inventory so Low?
•Demand Side•Housing affordability is at historic highs• Low rates impacting other investment alternatives
• Supply Side• Little new construction for last 5 years•Underwater homeowners are stuck• Foreclosure pipeline drying up in non‐judicial states
• Investors are renting instead of flipping•Off‐market (aka “pocket’) listings growing
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%Delinquency Rate Foreclosure Rate
Mortgage Foreclosure & Delinquency Rates• California: Q2‐2013
Delinquencies: Long Run Average: 4.5%
Foreclosure Rate: Long Run Average: 1.3%
SERIES: Mortgage Foreclosure & Delinquency RatesSOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Jan‐07
May‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
May‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
May‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
May‐11
Sep‐11
Jan‐12
May‐12
Sep‐12
Jan‐13
May‐13
Notice of Trustee Sale ‐ Counts Notice of Defaults ‐ Counts
California Foreclosure Filings, August 2013• NTS: 8,223, ‐54.7% YTD • NOD: 8,189, ‐59.1% YTD
6 Month Average:
NTSs: 8,225
NODs: 9,012
SERIES: Foreclosure FilingsSOURCE: PropertyRadar.com
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Jan‐07
May‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
May‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
May‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
May‐11
Sep‐11
Jan‐12
May‐12
Sep‐12
Jan‐13
May‐13
Preforeclosure Scheduled for Sale Bank Owned
• Preforeclosure: ‐48% YTD • Schedule for Sale: ‐62% YTD • Bank Owned: ‐36% YTD
California Foreclosure Inventories, Aug. 2013
6 Month Average:
Preforeclosure: 45,733
Schedule for Sale: 28,245
Bank Owned: 46,247
SERIES: Foreclosure InventoriesSOURCE: PropertyRadar.com
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000 Single Family Multi‐Family
CA New Housing PermitsStill Falling Short
Household Growth: 220,000‐250,000/yr
SERIES: New Housing PermitsSOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board
2013 ANNUAL HOUSING MARKET SURVEY
1.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Med. Price Discount
Med. Weeks on MLS
Stiff Market Competition Leads to Fewer Sales with Price Discount & Less Time on the Market
Q. What was the original list sales price of the property?What was the final sales price of the property? How many weeks did the property remain on the MLS?
34%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% with Price Discount
Long Run Average = 66%
72%
5.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
% with Multiple Offers
Multiple Offers at Record Highs
Share of home sales with multiple offers highest in at least the last 15 years
SERIES: 2013 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?
$55,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Median Net Cash Gain to Sellers Rebounding
SERIES: 2013 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Share of Sellers with Net Cash Loss:Lowest Since 2007
Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?
13.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Long Run Average = 12.8%
SERIES: 2013 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
More Sellers Planning to Repurchase Repeat Buyers are Back
Q. Is the seller planning on purchasing another home?SERIES: 2013 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Equity Sales (2011 vs. 2012 vs. 2013)
2011 2012 2013
Share of Total Sales 58.7% 64.7% 80.8%
Median Home Price $431,000 $448,000 $456,635
Square Footage 1,783 1,750 1,678
Price / SF $250 $243 $270
Sales‐to‐List Price Ratio 95.9% 97.3% 100.0%
% of Sales With Multiple Offers 35.2% 50.9% 69.0%
Avg. Number of Offers 3.0 4.0 5.2
% of All Cash Sales 25.5% 27.3% 25.2
Days on MLS 67 32 10
Days in Escrow 35 35 30
SERIES: 2013 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
REO Sales (2011 vs. 2012 vs. 2013)
2011 2012 2013Share of Total Sales 19.7% 12.3% 4.9%
Median Home Price $189,500 $185,000 $175,500
Square Footage 1,500 1,500 1,400
Price / SF $112 $116 $101
Sales‐to‐List Price Ratio 98.0% 100.0% 100.0%
% of Sales With MultipleOffers 58.3% 70.8% 91.2%
Avg. Number of Offers 4.3 4.2 7.4
% of All Cash Sales 34.0% 43.1% 50.0%
Days on MLS 50 30 15
Days in Escrow 35 45 35
SERIES: 2013 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Short Sales (2011 vs. 2012 vs. 2013)
2011 2012 2013Share of Total Sales 20.2% 21.7% 14.0%
Median Home Price $287,000 $235,000 $276,500
Square Footage 1,600 1,600 1,650
Price / SF $175 $154 $146
Sales‐to‐List Price Ratio 95.9% 99.9% 103.0%
% of Sales With MultipleOffers 57.5% 66.1% 75.7%
Avg. Number of Offers 3.6 4.3 7.1
% of All Cash Sales 23.3% 26.7% 35.7%
Days on MLS 141 90 14
Days in Escrow 45 50 60
SERIES: 2013 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Investment & Second/ Vacation Homes : 25% Market Share
6%
19%SERIES: 2013 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Vacation/Second Home
Investment/Rental Property
Buying to Rent: Winning Investment Strategy
Investment to Flip
Rental Property
SERIES: 2013 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Share of Cash Buyers decreases for the first time after 7 years of continuous Increase
27%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% of All Cash Sales
• Almost one‐third of buyers paid with all cash
• The share of all cash buyers has been on the rise since 2006
SERIES: 2013 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
$70,000
20%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Median Down Payment % of Down Payment to Price
Q. What was the amount of downpayment?
Median Down Payment: 20%Tight Underwriting & Prices Gains
SERIES: 2013 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Buyers Have More “Skin” in the Game
2006 2012 2013
% of buyers with 20+% down payment 43.2% 54.4% 52.2%
% of buyers with zero down payment 21.1% 4.6% 7.0%
% of cash buyers 11.0% 29.6% 27.4%
% of home buyers with a second mortgage
43.4% 1.8% 2.2%
% of buyer with ARM 32.6% 3.5% 4.0%
SERIES: 2013 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Q. Please indicate the type of mortgage.
Share of FHA Lowest in 6 Years
17%
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
FHA VA
SERIES: 2013 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Share of First‐Time Buyers is the Lowest Since 2006
Q. Was the buyer a first‐time buyer?
28%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% First‐Time Home Buyers Long Run Average
Long Run Average = 38%
SERIES: 2013 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Share of International Buyers is Growing36% All Cash
Q. Was the buyer an international buyer – a person who was a citizen of another country who wished to purchase residential real estate in the U.S.?
7.8%
6.0%5.3%
5.7% 5.8%
8.0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Country of International Buyer
• China (30%)
• Canada (9%)
• India (6%)
• Mexico (13%)
REGIONAL HOUSING MARKETS
Northern California
Regional Report Card –Northern California
Current Price to Trough Price: +46%
Current YTD Sales to Last 5 Yr. Avg: +25%
Current UII to Long Run Avg.: ‐37%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Jan‐05 Jan‐06 Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11 Jan‐12 Jan‐13
Sales of Existing Detached Homes• Northern CA, Aug. 2013: 1,346 Units, +4.1% YTD, +4.1% YTY
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Sales of Existing Detached HomesNorthern California Counties•
Butte 124 163 128 ‐23.9% ‐3.1% 11.7%Del Norte 13 19 NA ‐31.6% NA NAGlenn 18 18 14 0.0% 28.6% 2.5%
Humbolt 113 115 92 ‐1.7% 22.8% 16.0%Lake 88 77 71 14.3% 23.9% ‐14.2%
Nevada 106 112 67 ‐5.4% 58.2% NAPlacer 485 572 533 ‐15.2% ‐9.0% 2.8%Plumas 45 37 36 21.6% 25.0% NAShasta 253 218 219 16.1% 15.5% 7.3%Siskiyou 46 42 48 9.5% ‐4.2% 10.0%Sutter 75 54 NA 38.9% NA NATehama 34 39 47 ‐12.8% ‐27.7% ‐14.2%Yolo 155 167 162 ‐7.2% ‐4.3% ‐3.6%Yuba 78 66 NA 18.2% NA NA
Y‐t‐DY‐t‐YCounty Aug‐13 Jul‐13 Aug‐12 M‐t‐M
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes• Northern CA, August 2013: $294,020, Up 22.9% YTY
$‐
$50,000
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Jan‐05 Jan‐06 Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11 Jan‐12SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes• Northern California Counties•
Butte $281,820 $239,280 $226,090 17.8% 24.6%Del Norte $100,000 $155,000 NA ‐35.5% NAGlenn $135,000 $140,000 $160,000 ‐3.6% ‐15.6%
Humbolt $247,220 $267,050 $218,750 ‐7.4% 13.0%Lake $153,330 $141,430 $125,560 8.4% 22.1%
Nevada $339,500 $323,000 $245,000 5.1% 38.6%Placer $361,830 $372,220 $288,030 ‐2.8% 25.6%Plumas $195,000 $249,000 $267,250 ‐21.7% ‐27.0%Shasta $203,650 $201,350 $165,480 1.1% 23.1%Siskiyou $140,000 $140,000 $127,270 0.0% 10.0%Sutter $202,000 $212,500 NA ‐4.9% NATehama $493,950 $507,500 $439,990 ‐2.7% 12.3%Yolo $667,590 $668,750 $615,400 ‐0.2% 8.5%Yuba $186,000 $170,500 NA 9.1% NA
Y‐t‐YCounty Aug‐13 Jul‐13 Aug‐12 M‐t‐M
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Supply of Inventory in Northern CA
0
1
2
3
4
Equity Sales REO Sales Short Sales
3.1
1.4
1.9
UII –Active Only
SERIES: Distressed SalesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Northern Wine Country
Regional Report Card –Northern Wine
Current Price to Trough Price: +45%
Current YTD Sales to Last 5 Yr. Avg: +13%
Current UII to Long Run Avg.: ‐46%
0
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Jan‐05 Jan‐06 Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11 Jan‐12 Jan‐13
Sales of Existing Detached Homes• Northern Wine Country, Aug.2013: 673 Units, ‐5.1% YTD, ‐1.0% YTY
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Home Sales in Northern Wine Country Counties
0
100
200
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600
Mendocino Napa Sonoma
August‐12 August‐13
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Sales of Existing Detached Homes• Northern Wine Country Counties•
Mendocino 68 58 48 17.2% 41.7% 3.6%Napa 117 144 132 ‐18.8% ‐11.4% ‐6.5%
Sonoma 488 478 500 2.1% ‐2.4% ‐5.6%
Y‐t‐DY‐t‐YCounty Aug‐13 Jul‐13 Aug‐12 M‐t‐M
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes• Northern Wine Country, Aug. 2013: $449,010, Up 19.5% YTY
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$700,000
Jan‐05 Jan‐06 Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11 Jan‐12SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes• Northern Wine Country Counties•
Mendocino $276,670 $286,360 $206,250 ‐3.4% 34.1%Napa $565,970 $511,900 $385,710 10.6% 46.7%
Sonoma $453,790 $473,640 $385,610 ‐4.2% 17.7%
Y‐t‐YCounty Aug‐13 Jul‐13 Aug‐12 M‐t‐M
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Bay Area
Regional Report Card –Bay Area
Current Price to Trough Price: +86%
Current YTD Sales to Last 5 Yr. Avg.: +8%
Current UII to Long Run Avg.: ‐37%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Jan‐05 Jan‐06 Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11 Jan‐12 Jan‐13
Sales of Existing Detached Homes• Bay Area, Aug. 2013: 4,221 Units, ‐3.7% YTD, ‐0.8% YTY
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Sales of Existing Detached Homes• Bay Area Counties
Alameda 716 780 666 ‐8.2% 7.5% ‐1.2%Contra Costa (Central County) 462 514 451 ‐10.1% 2.4% 3.5%
Marin 231 252 242 ‐8.3% ‐4.5% 7.6%Napa 117 144 132 ‐18.8% ‐11.4% ‐6.5%
San Francisco 321 351 310 ‐8.5% 3.5% 7.0%San Mateo 443 488 436 ‐9.2% 1.6% ‐2.5%Santa Clara 1055 1081 1046 ‐2.4% 0.9% ‐6.0%Solano 388 359 472 8.1% ‐17.8% ‐19.0%Sonoma 488 478 500 2.1% ‐2.4% ‐5.6%
Y‐t‐YCounty Aug‐13 Jul‐13 Aug‐12 M‐t‐M Y‐t‐D
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes• Bay Area, August 2013: $704,830, Up 24.1% YTY
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Jan‐05 Jan‐06 Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11 Jan‐12SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes• Bay Area Counties•
Alameda $654,060 $662,040 $539,820 ‐1.2% 21.2%Contra Costa (Central County) $808,560 $789,010 $628,290 2.5% 28.7%
Marin $987,740 $1,000,000 $806,450 ‐1.2% 22.5%Napa $565,970 $511,900 $385,710 10.6% 46.7%
San Francisco $871,480 $842,550 $692,980 3.4% 25.8%San Mateo $980,000 $919,000 $777,500 6.6% 26.0%Santa Clara $805,000 $840,000 $666,750 ‐4.2% 20.7%Solano $295,890 $279,330 $202,240 5.9% 46.3%Sonoma $453,790 $473,640 $385,610 ‐4.2% 17.7%
Y‐t‐YCounty Aug‐13 Jul‐13 Aug‐12 M‐t‐M
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Supply of Inventory in Bay Area
0
1
2
3
Equity Sales REO Sales Short Sales
1.4
2.5
1.3
UII –Active Only
SERIES: Distressed SalesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Central Valley Region
Regional Report Card –Central Valley
Current Price to Trough Price: +52%
Current YTD Sales to Last 5 Yr. Avg.: ‐8%
Current UII to Long Run Avg.: ‐42%
Sales of Existing Detached Homes• Central Valley, Aug.2013 Sales: 4,477 Units, ‐10.5% YTD, ‐11.4% YTY
‐
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Sales of Existing Detached Homes• Central Valley Regions
Amador 51 39 63 30.8% ‐19.0% ‐1.8%Calavaras 103 103 NA 0.0% NA NAEl Dorado 320 311 341 2.9% ‐6.2% 2.2%Fresno 810 848 862 ‐4.5% ‐6.0% ‐5.2%Kern (Bakersfield) 506 528 560 ‐4.2% ‐9.6% ‐9.8%Kings County 86 68 96 26.5% ‐10.4% ‐10.9%Madera 37 39 37 ‐5.1% 0.0% ‐18.1%Merced 107 116 128 ‐7.8% ‐16.4% ‐10.4%Placer County 485 572 533 ‐15.2% ‐9.0% 2.8%Sacramento 1,566 1,589 1,712 ‐1.4% ‐8.5% ‐9.3%San Benito 50 50 47 0.0% 6.4% ‐6.4%San Joaquin 647 660 805 ‐2.0% ‐19.6% ‐14.1%Stanislaus 529 493 571 7.3% ‐7.4% ‐15.7%Tulare 232 260 337 ‐10.8% ‐31.2% ‐19.9%
Y‐t‐DY‐t‐YCounty Aug‐13 Jul‐13 Aug‐12 M‐t‐M
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes• Central Valley, August 2013: $219,870, Up 34.3% YTY
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SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes• Central Valley Counties
Amador $213,890 $196,670 $175,000 8.8% 22.2%Calavaras $220,000 $227,000 NA ‐3.1% NAEl Dorado $355,840 $350,760 $268,380 1.4% 32.6%Fresno $184,000 $183,870 $151,110 0.1% 21.8%Kern (Bakersfield) $200,000 $195,000 $155,000 2.6% 29.0%Kings County $184,000 $173,330 $153,330 6.2% 20.0%Madera $170,000 $175,710 $127,500 ‐3.2% 33.3%Merced $155,880 $163,080 $123,330 ‐4.4% 26.4%Placer County $361,830 $372,220 $288,030 ‐2.8% 25.6%Sacramento $257,660 $254,550 $184,000 1.2% 40.0%San Benito $387,000 $400,000 $335,000 ‐3.3% 15.5%San Joaquin $231,390 $225,000 $168,120 2.8% 37.6%Stanislaus $203,120 $193,920 $147,850 4.7% 37.4%Tulare $158,460 $157,140 $133,560 0.8% 18.6%
Y‐t‐YCounty Aug‐13 Jul‐13 Aug‐12 M‐t‐M
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Supply of Inventory in Central Valley
0
1
2
3
Equity Sales REO Sales Short Sales
2.2
1.3
0.9
UII –Active Only
SERIES: Distressed SalesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Central Coast
Regional Report Card –Central Coast
Current Price to Trough Price: +82%
Current YTD Sales to Last 5 Yr. Avg.: +4%
Current UII to Long Run Avg.: ‐40%
Neutral
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1,200
Jan‐05 Jan‐06 Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11 Jan‐12 Jan‐13
Sales of Existing Detached Homes• Central Coast, Aug. 2013: 757 Units, ‐2.9% YTD, ‐3.8% YTY
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Sales of Existing Detached Homes• Central Coast Counties•
Monterey 228 249 262 ‐8.4% ‐13.0% ‐6.4%San Luis Obispo 282 315 281 ‐10.5% 0.4% 2.4%Santa Barbara 247 242 244 2.1% 1.2% ‐5.0%Santa Cruz 199 207 204 ‐3.9% ‐2.5% 5.4%
Y‐t‐DY‐t‐YCounty Aug‐13 Jul‐13 Aug‐12 M‐t‐M
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes• Central Coast, August 2013: $474,780, Up 23.7% YTY
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Jan‐05 Jan‐06 Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11 Jan‐12SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes• Central Coast Counties•
Monterey $407,000 $408,800 $317,500 ‐0.4% 28.2%San Luis Obispo $477,420 $491,790 $386,180 ‐2.9% 23.6%Santa Barbara $625,000 $598,680 $533,330 4.4% 17.2%Santa Cruz $629,000 $601,000 $540,000 4.7% 16.5%
Y‐t‐YCounty Aug‐13 Jul‐13 Aug‐12 M‐t‐M
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Supply of Inventory in Central Coast
0
1
2
3
4
Equity Sales REO Sales Short Sales
3.3
1.4
0.5
UII –Active Only
SERIES: Distressed SalesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Southern California Region
Regional Report Card –Southern California
Current Price to Trough Price: +70%
Current YTD Sales to Last 5 Yr. Avg: +4%
Current Inventory to Long Run Avg: ‐54%
Neutral
Sales of Existing Detached Homes• Southern CA Aug‐13 Sales: 11,977 Units, ‐2.0% YTD, ‐4.1% YTY
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SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Sales of Existing Detached Homes• Southern California Counties
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Los Angeles 3,697 3,687 3,928 0.3% ‐5.9% ‐1.7%Orange County 1,706 1,855 1,795 ‐8.0% ‐5.0% 4.7%Riverside County 2,082 2,039 2,177 2.1% ‐4.4% ‐10.9%San Bernardino 1,368 1,269 1,341 7.8% 2.0% ‐5.6%
San Diego 2,259 2,324 2,361 ‐2.8% ‐4.3% 5.5%Ventura 618 623 648 ‐0.8% ‐4.6% 0.7%
Santa Barbara 247 242 244 2.1% 1.2% ‐5.0%
Y‐t‐YCounty Aug‐13 Jul‐13 Aug‐12 M‐t‐M Y‐t‐D
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes• Southern California, Aug.2013: $419,340, +24.6% YTY
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SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes• Southern California Region
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Los Angeles $444,950 $421,350 $344,770 5.6% 29.1%Orange County $664,580 $675,000 $567,710 ‐1.5% 17.1%Riverside County $290,030 $294,300 $227,740 ‐1.5% 27.4%San Bernardino $183,240 $180,270 $143,470 1.6% 27.7%
San Diego $482,470 $483,800 $389,540 ‐0.3% 23.9%Ventura $555,560 $545,720 $437,880 1.8% 26.9%
Santa Barbara $625,000 $598,680 $533,330 4.4% 17.2%
Y‐t‐YCounty Aug‐13 Jul‐13 Aug‐12 M‐t‐M
Supply of Inventory in Southern CA
0
1
2
3
Equity Sales REO Sales Short Sales
2.1
1.3
0.9
UII –Active Only
SERIES: Distressed SalesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
2014 FORECAST
2014 Forecast
U.S. Economic Outlook 2014
Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013p 2014f
US GDP ‐0.3% ‐3.4% 2.4% 1.8% 2.2% 1.8% 2.8%
Nonfarm Job Growth ‐0.6% ‐4.4% ‐0.7% 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7%
Unemployment 5.8% 9.3% 9.6% 8.9% 8.1% 7.5% 7.0%
CPI 3.8% ‐0.4% 1.6% 3.1% 2.1% 1.6% 2.0%Real Disposable Income, % Change 0.5% 0.9% 1.8% 1.3% 1.5% 1.0% 3.0%
SERIES: U.S. Economic OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
California Economic Outlook 2014
Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013p 2014f
Nonfarm Job Growth ‐1.3% ‐6.0% ‐1.1% 1.1% 1.6% 2.2% 1.9%
Unemployment Rate 7.2% 11.3% 12.3% 11.8% 10.5% 9.0% 8.3%
Population Growth 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9%Real Disposable Income, % Change 1.5% ‐3.9% 1.0% 1.9% 1.1% 0.9% 3.0%
SERIES: CA Economic OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
California Housing Market Outlook
Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013p 2014f
SFH Resales (000s) 381.4 474.9 416.5 422.6 439.4 430.3 444.0
% Change 30.4% 24.5% ‐12.3% 1.4% 4.0% ‐2.1% 3.2%
Median Price ($000s) $348.5 $275.0 $305.0 $286.0 $319.3 $408.6 $432.8
% Change ‐37.8% ‐21.1% 10.9% ‐6.2% 11.6% 28.0% 6.0%
30‐Yr FRM 6.0% 5.0% 4.7% 4.5% 3.7% 4.1% 5.3%
1‐Yr ARM 5.2% 4.7% 3.8% 3.0% 2.7% 2.7% 3.1%
SERIES: CA Housing Market OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Sales Bounce back in 2014, as Price Continues to Grow
Units (Thousand)
430 444
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013f
Sales of Existing Detached Homes
$409
$433
$0
$100
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$300
$400
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$600
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013f
Median PricePrice
(Thousand)
SERIES: CA Housing Market OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CA: Dollar Volume Steadily Improving Up 25.3% in 2013, Up 9.3% in 2014
$301
$244
$164
$133 $131 $127 $121 $140
$176 $192
‐40%
‐30%
‐20%
‐10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f
$ Volume of Sales Percent Change
% Change$ in Billion
‐60%
SERIES: CA Housing Market OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
MARKET OPPORTUNITIES 2014
Share of First‐Time Buyers is the Lowest Since 2006
Q. Was the buyer a first‐time buyer?
28%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% First‐Time Home Buyers Long Run Average
Long Run Average = 38%
SERIES: 2013 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
2013: 6 out of 10 Buyers Said They Found Their Home through Agent
2%
37%
61%
2013
For Sale Sign Website Agent
Q. How did you find the home you purchased?
2007: Almost 9 out of 10 Buyers Said They Found Their Home through Agent
8%
88%
1%2%1%2007
Website Agent Friend/family Open house Driving around
Q. How did you find the home you purchased?
Nearly All Buyers Use an Agent
91%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Q. Did you use a real estate agent in your home buying process?
First‐time Buyers need YOUR helpConnect EARLY and OFTEN
• Financial Literacy: How to manage their finances• What about student‐loan debt?• Can my parents help me out?• How do I increase my credit score?• How to save for a down payment and how much?• What programs are available? Tools to find out –Downpayment Resource on car.org
2014: Many Market Opportunities
• First‐time Buyers• Formerly “Underwater” Homeowners•Property Management • International Clients•New Construction•Embrace Learning
Most Buyers and Sellers Interviewed Multiple Agents before Selecting One
Q. How many agents did you interview prior to selecting the agent you used in your recent home purchase?
1 agent, 30%
2 agent, 38%
3 agent, 18%
4 agent, 15%
Buyers
Source: C.A.R. 2012 Buyer and Seller Surveys
1 agent, 12%
2 agents, 13%
3 agents, 21%
4 agents, 24%
5 agents, 17%
6 agents, 12%
Seller
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