HURRICANES

Planet Earth’s atmospheric-hydrospheric-lithospheric interactions create HURRICANES

2014 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS WITH HURRICANE ARTHUR

July 3, 2014

ARTHUR BECAME A CAT 1 HURRICANE ON JULY 3

ARTHUR MOVING ALONG EAST COAST

ARTHUR FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG EAST COAST

ARTHUR WILL IMPACT NORTH CAROLINA FIRST

• North Carolina and its fragile Outer Banks were evacuating and bracing for storm surge, winds and rain from Hurricane Arthur on Thursday as the storm gained strength and and threatened to wash out Fourth of July plans along the entire East Coast...

FORECAST FOR 2014

Fewer tropical storms and hurricanes are expected during the 2014 season as a consequence of an increased El Nino effect in the Pacific.

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS

FLOODS

HURRICANES

EARTHQUAKES/TSUNAMIS

VOLCANOES

WILDFIRES

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM BECOMING DISASTER NRESILIENT

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AND RISK FROM

HURRICANES

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS (AKA HAZARDS) OF A HURRICANE

• WIND FIELD [CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5+ (155 mph or greater)]

• DEBRIS• STORM SURGE/FLOODS• HEAVY PRECIPITATION/FLOODS• LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS)• COSTAL EROSION

HAZARDS

ELEMENTS OF WINDSTORM RISK

EXPOSURE

VULNERABILITY LOCATION

RISK

HIGH POTENTIAL LOSS EXPOSURES IN A HURRICANE

Entire communities;People, property, infra-structure, business enterprise, government centers, crops, wildlife, and natural resources.

A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A HURRICANE INTERACT

WITH A COMMUNITY

WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE

TYPHOONS

UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM

FLYING DEBRIS

STORM SURGE

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

SITING PROBLEMS

FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help  when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., windstorms, floods,…) intersect at a point in space and time.

Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause

extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,

joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

THE REASONS ARE . . .• When it does happen, the

functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure can be LOST.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.

THE REASONS ARE . . .• The community has NO DISASTER

PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

THE ALTERNATIVE TO A HURRICANE DISASTER IS

HURRICANE DISASTER RESILIENCE

CHILE’SCOMMUNITIES

DATA BASES AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• WINDSTORM HAZARDS

• PEOPLE & BLDGS. • VULNERABILITY• LOCATION

WINDSTORM RISK

RISKACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

GOAL: HURRICANE DISASTER RESILIENCE

• PREPAREDNESS• PROTECTION• EARLY WARNING• EMERGENCY RESPONSE• RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONS

TECHNOLOGIES FOR MONITORING, FORECASTING,

WARNING, AND DISASTER SCENARIOS ARE VITAL FOR SURVIVAL IN A HURRICANE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL WIND-STORMS PREPAREDNESFOR THE EXPECTED AND UNEXPEDTED IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL WIND-STORMS PROTECTION OF PEOPLE AND PROPERTY IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL WIND-STORMS EARLY WARN-ING (THE ISS) AND EVACU-ATION ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL WIND-STORMS TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL WIND-STORMS

RECOVERY AND RECON-STRUCTION USUALLY TAKES LONGER THAN THOUGHT.