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10 LESSONS FROM KPCB 2014 INTERNET TRENDS

Jacques-Henri EyraudMaître de Conférence à Sciences Po Paris

jacqueshenri.eyraud@sciencespo.fr

Lesson 1 : bet on tablets. Despite a 6% global penetration rate (smartphone global penetration is 22%), tablets are a very fast-growing technology product.

Lesson 2 : never underestimate the power of creative destruction. Is Nokia’s downfall the mother of all downfalls ? In just 8 years, Nokia has disappeared from the OS market. Andy Grove was right: only the paranoid survive. Any message for Facebook or Twitter ?

Lesson 2 (bis) : …this is all the more important as new technologies are now used by the world’s growing middle-class and below (think about the pace at which mobile is adopted in Africa for example).

Lesson 3 : in the digital advertising marketspace, is there a real upside for Facebook and Twitter ? More importantly, Google dwarfs those around it. It still continues to dominate. Expect more legal battles against the Mountain View giant from Governments and publishers.

Lesson 4 : in mobile, apps are where the money is.

Lesson 5: for Mary Meeker, no tech bubble in sight despite recent sky-high valuations. Hum…the S&P 500 is 25% above 2000 and 2007 peak levels right now. I’d stay away from tech.

Lesson 6: still wonder why Facebook acquired Whatsapp for $19 billion? Global messaging has been adopted by 1b+ customers in less than 5 years…Now this is getting scientific: ever asked your teens lately how often they spend time on Facebook compared to new messaging systems?

Lesson 7: yet again bad news for traditional media: they have to go social to drive their audience, promote their content, acquire new customers. Buzzfeed and the Huff Post are now bigger online news publishers than the NY Times or the Guardian. Is journalism ready for the big change?

Lesson 8: good user interfaces continue to change the world…and our daily lives. Still a lot to imagine especially in the fields of education and health care.

Lesson 9: once again, this is the end of television as we know it. TV juggernauts face the same disruption as newspaper publishers.

(are 16-34 year olds)

TODAY NOT SO LONG AGO…

Lesson 10: for those, especially politicians, who still think that diversity is not a problem solver…Let’s make immigration a positive issue on the political agenda.