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Dow.com 2014 Investor Forum Howard Ungerleider Chief Financial Officer November 13, 2014
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Page 1: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 2014 Investor Forum Howard Ungerleider Chief Financial Officer November 13, 2014

Dow.com

2014 Investor Forum

Howard Ungerleider Chief Financial Officer November 13, 2014

Page 2: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 2014 Investor Forum Howard Ungerleider Chief Financial Officer November 13, 2014

Some of our comments today include statements about our expectations for the future. Those expectations involve risks and uncertainties. Dow cannot guarantee the accuracy of any forecasts or estimates, and we do not plan to update any forward-looking statements if our expectations change. If you would like more information on the risks involved in forward-looking statements, please see our Annual Report and our SEC filings. In addition, some of our comments reference non-GAAP financial measures. Where available, presentation of and reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures are provided on the Internet at www.dow.com/investors.

SEC Disclosure Rules

™Trademark of The Dow Chemical Company or an affiliated company of Dow. “EBITDA” is defined as earnings (i.e., “Net Income”) before interest, income taxes, depreciation and amortization. “Adjusted EBITDA” is defined as EBITDA excluding the impact of Certain items. “Adjusted EBITDA margin” is defined as “Adjusted EBITDA” as a percentage of reported net sales. “Adjusted EPS” is defined as earnings per share excluding the impact of Certain items. “Net Debt” equals total debt (“Notes payable” plus “Long-term debt due within one year” plus “Long-Term Debt”) minus “Cash and cash equivalents.” “Net Debt to Total Capitalization” ratio is defined as “Net Debt” divided by “Net Capital.” “Net Capital” is defined as “Total Equity” + “Redeemable Noncontrolling Interest” + “Net Debt.” “Net Debt to EBITDA” is defined as “Net Debt” divided by “Adjusted EBITDA.” “TTM” is defined as trailing twelve months. “Total Capital” is defined as total assets minus non-interest bearing liabilities. “Adjusted Return on Capital” is defined as TTM “Adjusted Net Operating Profit After Tax” divided by average “Total Capital.” “Adjusted Sales” for joint ventures is defined as sales for joint ventures less sales to Dow and/or other Dow joint ventures. “Net Debt” for joint ventures excludes debt owed to Dow and/or other Dow joint ventures. “Total Shareholder Return” is defined as stock price appreciation plus dividends paid.

Page 3: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 2014 Investor Forum Howard Ungerleider Chief Financial Officer November 13, 2014

Our Priorities Going Forward

Maintain strong focus on rewarding shareholders

Fully capitalize on growth levers

Make further strategic choices: Go deeper and narrower to drive the next level of long-term growth

Page 4: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 2014 Investor Forum Howard Ungerleider Chief Financial Officer November 13, 2014

Maintain Strong Focus on Rewarding Shareholders

Providing Clarity into Dow’s Segments

Maximizing Financial Strength

Looking Forward

Page 5: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 2014 Investor Forum Howard Ungerleider Chief Financial Officer November 13, 2014

Announcing New Segments Aligned to Dow’s Strategy

Foundation of Core Strengths Support the Entire Franchise Cost Advantaged Feedstocks in Every Region Scale & Operational Excellence Molecular and Physical Integration

Global Reach ― Marketing, Business & Operations Expertise in Science & Technology Strong Brand Value

Propylene ~60% Chlorine ~90%

Ethylene ~80% Acrylic Monomer~80%

Performance Materials & Chemicals Performance Plastics Agricultural Sciences Consumer Solutions

Infrastructure Solutions

Revenue: $14.9B Adj. EBITDA: $2.1B

Revenue: $22.6B Adj. EBITDA: $4.4B

Revenue: $7.2B Adj. EBITDA: $0.9B

Revenue: $8.5B Adj. EBITDA: $1.1B

Revenue: $4.6B Adj. EBITDA: $1.0B

3Q14 Trailing Twelve Months Revenue and Adj. EBITDA data

Page 6: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 2014 Investor Forum Howard Ungerleider Chief Financial Officer November 13, 2014

New Segments Aligned to Dow’s Strategy and Priorities Performance Materials

& Chemicals Performance Plastics

+161 bps +269 bps

ExxonMobil, Borealis, Braskem, LyondellBasell, INEOS, Westlake, Mitsui,

Nova

15.8%

19.3%

10.6%

14.0%

Stepan, BASF, Huntsman, Eastman, Bayer, Axiall,

Mitsui, Momentive

Leading integrated franchise with strong market fundamentals

Sadara and USGC Ethylene cycle

Strong integrated franchise(s)

Chlorine carve-out PDH and Sadara Productivity Drive

Agricultural Sciences Consumer Solutions Infrastructure

Solutions

+205 bps +121 bps Adj. EBITDA Margin TTM1, Change

Strategic Levers

Benchmark

21.8%

12.5%

14.6%

21.9%

13.4%

13.3%

Monsanto, Syngenta, Bayer, NuFarm, BASF,

DuPont, FMC

Cabot Micro, Croda, DuPont, Sumitomo,

Clariant, Stepan, Johnson Controls

RPM, Valspar, Kemira, Sherwin-Williams, Akzo Nobel, Arkema, Owens Corning, Pall,

PPG, Celanese

Dow

Benchmark

Solid positions in key market segments

Leading technology platforms

PDH and productivity drive for acrylic chain

Leading positions in attractive markets

Leading technology platform and strong innovation pipeline

Attractive market fundamentals

Aggressive growth funding to expand leading innovation pipeline

1) Trailing Twelve Months 3Q14 vs. Trailing Twelve Months 3Q13 2) 3Q14 Trailing Twelve Months Revenue and EBITDA data as available, otherwise Trailing Twelve Months 2Q14

-18 bps

Adj. EBITDA Margin TTM2 %

Page 7: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 2014 Investor Forum Howard Ungerleider Chief Financial Officer November 13, 2014

2013 Corporate EBITDA: ~$(925)MM

Insurance Operations Forex, Audit Fees, etc. NBD & Ventures Area Management

Environmental Operations Asbestos-Related

Defense/Resolution

Legacy ~$(250)MM

Enhancing Transparency and Accountability

Corporate Segment Changes

NBD is New Business Development

Business Related Costs ~$(500)MM

Enterprise Activities & Governance ~$(175)MM

Segments Now Own 100% of Business-Related Costs

Business leaders have clear visibility of costs

Business leaders accountable

Improved transparency with peer comparisons

2013 New Corporate:

~$(425)MM

Page 8: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 2014 Investor Forum Howard Ungerleider Chief Financial Officer November 13, 2014

Productivity: Delivering More with Less

Manufacturing & Engineering

2015 Productivity

Enterprise Level Activities

Supply Chain

Increase maintenance & raw materials efficiency

Improve asset utilization, yield & reliability

Optimize resource allocation

Improve S&OP process

Optimize Order to Cash

Eliminate stranded costs from portfolio actions

Optimize structural costs

Business Services

Leverage new ERP system

Procurement optimization

Specific Actions

Accelerating Productivity to Mitigate Headwinds and Drive Earnings Growth

Value Identified

~$300MM Target in 2015

Target: $1B

2015 2016 2017

Page 9: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 2014 Investor Forum Howard Ungerleider Chief Financial Officer November 13, 2014

Joint Venture Portfolio Optimization

Objectives: Access to low-cost feedstocks, differentiated technology and/or market access

Principal Joint Ventures represent ~90% of equity earnings

Increasing ability to consolidate earnings from growth-enabling JV’s, while reducing ownership in commodity product lines

JVs under review for Dow participation strategy and equity: Dow Corning, Kuwait JVs and Siam Cement Group

Dow Proportionate Share

Dollars in millions (unaudited) 2013 2012

Sales $8,129 $7,882

Adjusted Sales(1) $6,205 $6,040

EBITDA(2) $1,584 $1,016

Depreciation & Amortization $418 $365

EBITDA in Excess of Equity Earnings $637 $423

Equity Earnings $946 $593

Net Debt(3) $3,529 $1,855

(1) Adjusted Sales defined as Sales for these joint ventures less sales to Dow and/or to other Dow joint ventures. (2) EBITDA defined as earnings (i.e., “Net Income”) before interest, income taxes, depreciation and amortization. (3) Net Debt excludes debt owed to Dow and / or to other Dow joint ventures.

Principal Joint Ventures — Total

Dollars in millions (unaudited) 2013 2012

Sales $18,277 $17,662

Adjusted Sales(1) $13,649 $13,189

EBITDA(2) $3,293 $2,032

Depreciation & Amortization $951 $773

Page 10: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 2014 Investor Forum Howard Ungerleider Chief Financial Officer November 13, 2014

Maintain Strong Focus on Rewarding Shareholders

Providing Clarity into Dow’s Segments

Maximizing Financial Strength

Looking Forward

Page 11: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 2014 Investor Forum Howard Ungerleider Chief Financial Officer November 13, 2014

Strategy and Growth Catalysts Accelerate Earnings

Improving Earnings Profile Through the Cycle

EBITDA Rising as Self-Help Actions Gain Traction

Investments Will Deliver Significant Future Growth

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

$B

Adjusted EBITDA (TTM)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Recessions Mid-Point

$B

Annual Adjusted EBITDA ’0

8 -

‘09

‘02

’03

-’0

4

’11

-’1

3

Average over Identified Periods

TTM defined as Trailing Twelve Months

Page 12: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 2014 Investor Forum Howard Ungerleider Chief Financial Officer November 13, 2014

Focused Execution is Driving Higher Profitability

Increasing Adjusted ROC

0

1

2

3

$/s

har

e

Adjusted EPS Growth

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

TSR Performance*

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1 yr 3 yr 5 yr

Dow S&P Chem S&P 500

*Annualized Total Shareholder Return calculations as of November 7, 2014

TTM

TTM

8 Consecutive Quarters of YOY Adjusted EPS, EBITDA and EBITDA Margin Growth

TTM defined as Trailing Twelve Months

Page 13: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 2014 Investor Forum Howard Ungerleider Chief Financial Officer November 13, 2014

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

10

15

20

25

Inte

rest

Exp

ense

($

B)

Net

Deb

t ($

B)

Net Debt Interest Expense

Maintaining a Strong Balance Sheet

Maintaining Financial Flexibility

Reducing Debt L/T Maturity Due In 5 YRs Ratios Below Historic Avg

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Net D

ebt : EB

ITDA

Net

Deb

t : C

apit

al

Net Debt : Capital Net Debt : EBITDA

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$B

Page 14: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 2014 Investor Forum Howard Ungerleider Chief Financial Officer November 13, 2014

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

$1.8

'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Est.

Div

iden

ds

Dec

lare

d ‒

$/s

h

Committed to Rewarding Our Shareholders

Increasing Annual Dividend to $1.68/sh

Increased Dividend by 14% and Announced New $5B Repurchase Program

Dividend Yield vs. Peers

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

BASF Dow LYB DD HUN ALB EMN MON CE PPG WLK

After Announced Dividend Increase

Source: Capital IQ — October 31, 2014

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14

Shar

e R

epu

rch

ases

‒ $

B

$4.5 Billion Repurchase Program to be Completed by Year-End

TTM

$1.1B Remaining for 4Q14

TTM defined as Trailing Twelve Months

Page 15: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 2014 Investor Forum Howard Ungerleider Chief Financial Officer November 13, 2014

Maintain Strong Focus on Rewarding Shareholders

Providing Clarity into Dow’s Segments

Maximizing Financial Strength

Looking Forward

Page 16: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 2014 Investor Forum Howard Ungerleider Chief Financial Officer November 13, 2014

2015 Modeling Assumptions Dow Assumptions

Global real GDP: ~3% — U.S.: ~3% — Europe: ~1% — China and India: ~6-7%

Sadara Polyethylene Start-up: 2H15

PDH RTO: mid‒2015

Capital expenditures of $3.9 billion

Interest expense ~$250 million/QTR

Corporate Segment ~$400‒450 million/yr

Effective tax rate: 26‒29%

Dow Assumptions Tailwinds & Self-Help

Cycle

PDH

Productivity (costs)

Operating Rates

Organic Growth

Headwinds

Sadara Commissioning

Pension

Salary Inflation

Forex

Page 17: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 2014 Investor Forum Howard Ungerleider Chief Financial Officer November 13, 2014

Levers to Deliver Sustainable and Increasing Cash Flow

Capital Expenditures Peak in 2015

Ris

k M

itig

atio

n Accelerate productivity timeline

Optimize capital expenditures

Reduce working capital

Maintain operational excellence

Portfolio management

Max

imiz

e Continue to increase shareholder

remuneration

Maintain strong financial flexibility

Fund growth investments

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ B

illio

n

Economic Assumptions: Base Case

Sources of Cash

Cash from Operations

Sources of Additional Upside Ethylene Cycle Productivity Portfolio Management Targeted Marketing & Innovation

Page 18: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 2014 Investor Forum Howard Ungerleider Chief Financial Officer November 13, 2014

Financial Priorities Moving Forward

Continue to improve ROC with a goal to return 3% above our cost of capital

Drive 10% average annual EPS growth over the long-term

Maintain capital structure that provides financial flexibility to invest for organic growth, reward shareholders — Convert preferred shares — Maintain a solid investment grade credit rating — Post-2015, drive capex spending toward D&A levels

Continue to increasingly reward shareholders — complete $9.5B share buyback program in line with increasing cash flow, maintain dividend yield in line with historic ratios

Page 19: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 2014 Investor Forum Howard Ungerleider Chief Financial Officer November 13, 2014
Page 20: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 2014 Investor Forum Howard Ungerleider Chief Financial Officer November 13, 2014

Segment Recast Changes

PRIOR SEGMENT BUSINESS

Agricultural Sciences Crop Protection

Seeds

Coatings and Infrastructure Solutions

Performance Monomers

Dow Coating Materials

Dow Water and Process Solutions

Dow Building and Construction

Electronics and

Functional Materials

Dow Electronic Materials

Functional Materials

Performance Materials

Dow Oil, Gas & Mining

Dow Plastics Additives

Oxygenated Solvents

Polyglycols, Surfactants & Fluids

Chlorinated Organics

Epoxy

Propylene Oxide/ Propylene Glycol

Polyurethanes

Dow Formulated Systems

Dow Automotive Systems

Amines

Feedstocks and Energy

Ethylene Oxide/ Ethylene Glycol

Chlor-Alkali / Chlor-Vinyl

Energy

Hydrocarbons

Performance Plastics

Dow Packaging and Specialty Plastics

Dow Elastomers

Dow Electrical and Telecommunications

BUSINESS NEW SEGMENT

Crop Protection Agricultural Sciences

Seeds

Consumer Care Consumer Solutions

Dow Automotive Systems

Dow Electronic Materials

Dow Building and Construction

Infrastructure Solutions Dow Coating Materials

Energy and Water Solutions

Performance Monomers

Chlor-Alkali and Vinyl

Performance Materials &

Chemicals

Chlorinated Organics

Epoxy

Industrial Solutions

Polyurethanes

Dow Elastomers

Performance Plastics

Dow Electrical and Telecommunications

Dow Packaging and Specialty Plastics

Energy

Hydrocarbons

PRIOR SEGMENTS NEW SEGMENTS


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