2014 Mn Cha a Generational Futures

Generational Futures for the

Minnesota County Highway

Accountants Association

Stephen Troutman

Futurist, Facilitator, Author, Consultant

April 2014

Copyright Stephen Troutman 2014 [email protected] 507-250-1611

Generations

We are all familiar with the concept of generations

The "GI"s who won WWII, the "Greatest Generation" They unified after the war to build the economic engine which

powered the US dominance for the next 50 years

The huge "Baby Boom" generation that rebelled In the 1960s and 1970s, they set out to change the world and were

famously conflicted with their parents

"Generation X" is the irreverent, just do it generation They were the latch key generation, they grew to be

independent, pragmatic and self sufficient.

The Millennials want relevance and connection They were originally called Generation Y because they were so

different from Gen X. Also called Digital Natives

Copyright Stephen Troutman 2014

[email protected] 507-250-1611

Hero

GI

Prophet

Boomer

Nomad

Gen X

Hero

Millennial

Generations Research

The material we are about to delve into is based on

work of two researcher/authors. William Strauss and Neil Howe

Their basic research covers data:

Spanning 1584 to the 1980s of American history

Their analysis :

Identified 13 generations in American history.

Confirmed 4 generational archetypes.

Identified 4 repeating generational cycles.

Provide a model for forecasting the future in the US.

And provided explanations for some European history.



Resources

William Strauss and Neil Howe They wrote five books based on their research

Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069, Published 1991, ISBN 0688119123

13th Gen : Abort, Retry, Ignore, Fail?, Published 1993, ISBN 0679743650

The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy, Published 1997, ISBN 055306682X

Millennials Rising : The Next Great Generation, Published 2000, ISBN 0375707190

Millennials and the Pop Culture Published 2006, ISBN 09712605


[email protected] 507-

250-1611



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Nomad

What is a Generation

A generation is an identifiable cohort of people, with similar

behavioral characteristics, usually spanning a period

between 17 and 23 years.

For example:

Generation X people are identified as in the

Nomad/Reactive Archetype* who are:

The children of an Artist generation

Born between 1961 and 1981 (21 years)

Behaviorally they are independent, practical and

confident. They are irreverent and self sufficient.

Approach: Just do It! Out to do what needs to be done.

Note: * Between their first book and their second book, the authors renamed the generational archetypes, in the example of Gen X from Reactive to Nomad)

A Caveat on Generations

There is no standard "generations" in the literature:

In a recent book, Generation X was purported to span only 11

years, followed by Generation Y for only 9 years, with a

presumption that future generations will come faster and faster

It is up to the reader to ensure consistency:

When looking at generational information, it is important to verify

how the underlying data is tabulated, analyzed and used.

Even Strauss and Howe changed their terminology between their first

book, in 1991, and their second, in 1997. (e.g. Reactive to Nomad)

Ensure you are not comparing apples to oranges

This presentation does not make investment advice. It presents research and concepts about broad generational behavioral trends but

provides no recommendations related your personal investment decisions



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Which Archetype* Are You?Born between 1901 and 1924 (24 years)The Greatest Generation - Out to work together with purpose

Archetype: Hero / Civic

Born between 1925 and 1942 (18 years)The Silent Generation - Out to keep things going by consensus

Archetype: Artist / Adaptive

Born between 1943 and 1960 (18 years)Baby Boom - Out to change the world

Archetype: Prophet / Idealist

Born between 1961 and 1981 (21 years)Generation X - Out to do what needs to be done

Archetype: Nomad / Reactive

Born between 1982 and 2003? (21 years?)Millennial or Generation Y - Out to work together with purpose

Archetype: Hero / Civic

Born after 2004(?)The next Silent Generation - Out to keep things going by consensus

Archetype: Artist / Adaptive



Hero

GI

Artist

Silent

Prophet

Boomer

Nomad

Gen X

Hero

Millennial

Artist

Gen Z

* Archetypes are groupings with common characteristics .Generations p428

Generations pass through time.There are four Age Cohorts : Childhood ~ 0-19 years old

Young Adult ~ 20-39 years old

Midlife ~ 40-59 years old

Elder hood ~ 60-79 years oldhistorically less important is:

Late Elder hood ~ 80+ years old



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Child hood

Elder- hood

Mid Life

Young Adult

Late Elder-hood

Stewardship: passing on values

Dependence: growing, learning values

Active: working, testing values

Leadership: directing, using values

Shift

s ev

ery

17-2

3 ye

ars

Note that each

age cohort

has a different

focus

The Generational Archetypes Exist in a

Repeating Pattern

The archetypes appear, one after another, in a repeating pattern

Artist

Prophet

Nomad

Hero

Artist

With each generation, the next archetype in the pattern appears and joins the cyle



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Hero

Millenl

Artist

Silent

Prophet

Boom

Nomad

Gen X

Hero

GI

Artist

?

With each generational cycle, an elder archetype ages and fades away.

Each Patterns Reflects A Cycle Four repeating generational patterns are observed

Each pattern is a cycle which has distinct characteristics The cycles, shift to the left, as each new generation comes



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Hero

Prophet

Nomad

Artist

Hero

Prophet

Artist

Nomad

Elder hood ~ 63-83

Midlife ~ 42-62

Young Adult ~ 21-41

Childhood ~ 0-20

Cycles = Crisis High Awakening Unraveling

* Mid point was about 1994

Hero

Artist

Prophet

Nomad Hero

Prophet

Nomad

Artist

Cycle Dates 1929-1946 1946-1964 1964-1984 1984-2003?

Characteristics of the Cycles

High innocent Need: do what works," without complaint

e.g. 1946-1964, next about 2026-2047

Awakening passionate Need: find meaning, "fix inner world problems

e.g. 1964-1984, next about 2048-2069

Unraveling cynical Need: do what feels right, look out for yourself

e.g. 1908-1929 and 1983-2003

Crisis combative, then "practical Need: grasp for solutions, then fix outer world problems

e.g. 1929-1946, predicted 2004-2023



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Moods by Cycle



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Cycle:>Cycle:>Age Location:Age Location: HighHigh

1946-641946-64

AwakeAwake1964~841964~84

UnravelUnravel1984~04?1984~04?

CrisisCrisis2004?~26?2004?~26?

Elder hood ...........Elder hood ...........Midlife ....................Midlife ....................Young Adult ..........Young Adult ..........Child ......................Child ......................

NomadNomadHeroHeroArtistArtistProphetProphet

HeroHeroArtistArtistProphetProphetNomadNomad

ArtistArtistProphetProphetNomadNomadHeroHero

ProphetProphetNomadNomadHeroHeroArtistArtist

Views towards:Views towards:

Families strong weakening weak strengthng

Child Nurture loosening unprotect tightening overprotect

Gender Role Gap maximum narrowing minimum widening

Ideals settled discovered debated championed

Institutions reinforced attacked eroded founded

Culture innocent passionate cynical practical

Future Vision brightening euphoric darkening urgent

Future Cohorts and Archetypes

Four repeating generational cycles in history and the future

Span> 1984-2004* 2004-2026? 2026-2047 2048-2069



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HeroMillenl

Artist Silent

ProphetBoom

NomadGen X

HeroMillenl

Prophet Boom

Nomad Gen X

HeroMillenl

Prophet

NomadGen X

Artist?

Artist

HeroMillenl

Prophet

Artist

Nomad

Elder hood ~ 63-83

Midlife ~ 42-62

Young Adult ~ 21-41

Childhood ~ 0-20

Cycles > Unraveling Crisis High Awakening

You are here

How does a Crisis Cycle unfold?

The four stages of the Crisis following historic precedent will be:1. Catalyst a series of sparks point out institutional dysfunction,

foreseeable but poorly foreseen, brings urgency. The great devaluation occurs at the end of the Catalyst stage.

2. Regeneracy collective action is now seen as vital, people begin to deputize leaders to solve the problems. People start banding together looking for solutions and leaders. Ideas proliferate,

but consensus is not achieved.

3. Climax energy is gathered from still unmet needs and unresolved problems, and then, when society approaches maximum civic power, (the energy) is spent with fury Society unites in an all out effort to defeat the common enemy. Total

commitment is required of everyone, and usually total war is waged.

4. Resolution quickly follows the Climax with the establishment of a new order The societal rules and norms are established to usher in the next High Cycle . Fourth Turning p 256-258



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Catalyst Estimated for

2008, starts the

Great Devaluation

Regeneracy Starting 1-3 years after Catalyst and

then building until

the Climax

Climax Estimated to

be 2020 but

could come as

early as 2014

Resolution Estimated for

2023, takes only

a few years to

firmly set the

new order after

the final Climax

Between 2013 & 2020Between 2013 & 2020

The Crisis Cycle Time Line

Year 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025



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About this chart:

This is a time line which plots the start and end years of the four stages of the Crisis Cycle, based on previous Crises and the authors predictions

Crisis Cycle - Catalyst Stage (Part 1)

The first of four stages of the 20 year Crisis Cycle:

Catalyst Stage triggering events occur, signs of failing culture

Runs 1-5 years

(the Crisis Cycle began around 2003) (Catalyst predicted to end between 2005-2009)

Looks like the Unraveling Cycle, more institutional failures and an inability to come to consensus

But, there are no paths to unification ... yet



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Catalyst Stage

Historically the Catalyst Stage is like a continuation of the Unraveling Cycle. Predictable, but unpredicted, failures occur.

Trusted institutions fail to deliver results.

The Great Devaluation is likely to hit Boomers just as their first cohorts are reaching the official ages of retirement"

....perhaps 2008 (Fourth Turning p282, 1997)



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Crisis Cycle - Regeneracy Stage (Part 2)

The second stage of four in the Crisis Cycle:

Regeneracy Stage unification efforts begin Starting 1-3 years after Catalyst

Continues until the Climax Stage

(Regeneracy starting any time after 2006, ending with the Climax, around 2020 or earlier)

Triggering events continue, but not the final trigger

Multiple unification paths appear These may be pragmatic or utopian or both They may receive broad support or little

Final consensus is not achieved during Regeneracy During the Regeneracy the people deputize leaders lead and they

will bring radical change.



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We

are

here

!

Regeneracy

All social arrangements are evaluated anew;

Pre-Crisis promises and expectations count for little.

Near the end of the Regeneracy,

Individuals are expected to comply with new standards of virtue

Those who persist in free-wheeling, self-oriented behavior now face implacable stigma, even punishment.

Winner-take-all arrangements give way to enforceable new mechanisms for social sharing.

When society approaches the climax [stage]. wars become more likely. The risk of Revolution is high

Where the new values regime had once justified individual fury, it now justifies public fury.

(Fourth Turning p258, 1997)



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Crisis Cycle - Climax Stage(Part 3)

The third of the four stages of the Crisis Cycle:

Climax Stage crisis peaks, society decides on one path Usually occurs 5 years from the end of the entire Crisis Cycle

Should be sometime around 2020, or earlier

The Final Trigger occurs and could be ... almost anything:

a minor political event (like the Boston Tea party),

a normal election (like Lincolns), or a horrendous event (like Pearl Harbor)

The climax is human historys equivalent to a raging typhoon ... that sucks all surrounding matter into a single swirl .... shaking society to its roots, transforming institutions, and redirecting purposes.



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Crisis Cycle - Resolution Stage(Part 4)

The fourth of the four stages of the Crisis Cycle:

Resolution Stage immediately following the Climax Stage decisions are made, and society unites around them Usually takes place in only 3 years after the final trigger of

the Climax Stage

Could be done by 2023 or earlier, certainly by 2025

The sense of community will be omnipresent Lack of consensus will become a thing of the past

Moral order will be unquestioned, With rights and wrongs crisply defined and obeyed

Sacrifices will be asked and given

Long standing secular problems will be addressed

A new cultural order is in place at the end of the Crisis Cycle



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History

When was the last Crisis Cycle? Answer: The mid-twenties through WWII

1924 was the beginning of the Crisis cycle Catalyst stage

In 1929 the Stock Crash occurs and is Catalyst trigger

In 1933 the lowest point in stock prices is reached

Also in 1933, the New Deal Regeneracy is begun

In 1941 Pearl Harbor attack is the Climax trigger

By 1945 new order is in place. Resolution is complete



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History

US Stock Prices (DJIA) 1929 to 1941



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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average

History

US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 1910 to 1960 (note: by 1941 we were back where we would have been with a normal growth curve)



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HistoryUS Unemployment (% of working population) 1910 to 1960 (note

that he worst unemployment did not occur in 1930, but actually occurred in 1933 and was

sustained through 1938)



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Today's Generational Conclusions

Generational Conclusions

Generational projections of the Crisis cycle include previously

unimagined shifts in societal behavior

The failure of long trusted institutions churches, banks, etc.

The arrival the Tea party and Occupy Wall Street movements?

There will be turbulent economic times and unforeseen

economic instability ahead

Trusted economic models/tools may not work

The turbulence will span another 5-11 years

We are in for a protracted societal transformationtransformation



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Thank you for joining me in this discussion of

Generational Futures



Stephen TroutmanFuturist

[email protected]

507 250 1611 cell3210 Hill Court SW, Rochester MN 55902

http://www.linkedin.com/in/troutman

Keynote address topics :* Generational Futures

(we are in the crisis phase of an 80 year cycle)

* Global Climate Change

(why it is real and what are to future effects)

* Demographics

(worldwide and US demographic impacts)

* Tools of a Futurist

(scenario planning, back casting, wild card, etc.)

* Virtual Teaming

(the issues or remoteness and practical advice)

* Matrix Management

(model for cross functional decision making )

OrganizationsMinnesota Futurists

www.mnfuturists.org World Future Society

www.wfs.org

More classes like this in Rochester:

www.learningisforever.net/

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2014 Mn Cha a Generational Futures

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