2014 Security Threats to Energy Infrastructure: Key Challenges George Kobani Transocean

West Africa

Security Risks: From Big Picture to small details

Regional ? • Regional conflicts

• Cross border insurgencies

National ? • Political risks (policy, policing, corruption, regulation)

• Government security capabilities

Local/ Community ? • Disenfranchised Communities

• Local disputes

• Local crime networks

Regional overview • Security challenges include crime,

piracy, cross border arms proliferation, human and illegal drugs trafficking, illegal and unregulated fishing

• Unlike Central , East Africa, West African Countries interfere less in neighbors politics, borders and autonomy are generally respected

• Exceptional cases are Cameroon / Nigeria and Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire security / border issues

• Regional response capability through ECOWAS is delayed but robust when eventually activated

Regional overview

Energy infrastructure is associated with:

• Oil and Gas: Nigeria, Ghana, Cameroon Cote d’Ivoire. With Nigeria and Ghana piquing the most interest

• Mining: Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea, Ghana, Liberia, Sierra Leone have mining industry and infrastructure developed to varying degrees

• Power: Transnational Power infrastructure and deregulated market is still in development stage or at small scales

Security Risks

2012 Survey: Security Challenges Facing West Africa

Source: PCTS, COSEG, http://www.corprisk.net/ * Most PCTS members operations are located in Nigeria

Global Regional*

Piracy in West Africa

2012

72 Attacks

17 Kidnaps

5

Fatalities

2013

116 Attacks

134 Kidnaps

20

Fatalities

West Africa Piracy Hotspots

Gulf of Guniea Maritime Attacks 2013

Attacks by Vessel Type

Fishing trawler

Cargoe vessels

Product tankers

Supply vessels

Passenger vessel,

Bayelsa / Brass

Akwa Ibom/ Cross Rivers

Bakassi

Rivers 3

Togo 3

Cote d'Ivoire 3

Lagos

Deep offshore

Attacks by Location

West Africa Piracy Hotspots: Niger Delta Region

Piracy in West Africa

• Transnational piracy gangs staging attacks up to Gabon, Angola, Cote D’Ivoire

• Gangs also associated with oil theft in Niger delta region and connections to former militants

• Target is on refined petroleum products

• Unlike Gulf of Aden, Private Marine Security companies will not be the solution

• National Navy Cooperation is still insufficient (with except Benin – Nigeria cooperation)

Terrorism: Northern Nigeria’s Boko Haram

• Boko haram and its splinter group Ansaru have a fluctuating connections AQIM and al Shabaab.

• Boko Haram’s activities can have destabilizing effects in Chad, Cameroon and Niger

• Boko Haram’s activates have particularly stifled investment in infrastructure, power and telecoms and business in Northern Nigeria

• Boko Haram’s activities and support base will be limited in Southern, Christian regions

Boko Haram expresses a more diverse, less material objective Primarily based on a clearly articulated religious agenda to Islamize Nigeria

Country Risks

Cote D’Ivoire • President Alassane Ouattara still

trying to settle rifts from election crisis and civil war

• Reconciliation meetings between the opposition and the government has not generated significant gains

• Country still vulnerable to unrest due to ethno religious divides between North and South

• Security skirmishes at border areas in 2012 fueled by arms proliferation

• Presidential elections will be held in end 2015

Nigeria • Ruling party experiencing deepest

fragmentation since its rise to power in 1999

• Government still maintaining a fragile stability in the oil producing Niger delta region through its Amnesty programme

• Northern /Middle belt affected by religious and ethnic crisis with high human casualties and impact on investments

• Companies face significant challenges in dealing with poor and disenfranchised communities in project areas

• Oil theft is among most significant economic and security challenges facing Nigeria

• Presidential / Parliamentary Elections in early 2015

Guinea • Successful presidential elections in

2012 left some ethnic groups feeling marginalized

• Recent parliamentary elections have Restoring trust in the electoral system is crucial to defusing inter communal tensions.

• Long standing military rule has weakened democratic institutions and poses a incessant threat

• Plentiful natural resources, including bauxite (aluminum ore), iron ore and vast tracts of arable land, can build a strong economy

• Guinea’s progress on stabilizing its political situation will impact on investments in mining, power and infrastructure

To Go or Not? • Yes but, political risks must be considered

• We still don’t have a real regional market

• So every Country must be approached differently

• Local contacts and knowledge essential

• Operations regulated by global standards for – Safety and security

– Ethics

– Social responsibility

– Voluntary principles of security and human rights

Government permits and licenses does

not equal social license to operate in

communities

– Robust engagement with communities

– Avoid community gate keepers / fat cats

– Management of expectations

– Transparency

Security Policies • Occupier mentality is recipe

for failure

• Making community

stakeholders in projects

through jobs, contracts,

support to education is best

defense against threats

• Ensure local law enforcement

or military involved in the

security program, practice

Voluntary Principals on

Security & Human Rights

Nigeria: Burgeoning Power Sector • Community risks

• Payment risk

• Kidnap risk

• Violence risk

2014 Risks Summary • National and local politics

• Disenfranchised Communities

• Rising Piracy and Oil theft

• Crime: Kidnap and Ransom

• Terrorism

• Corruption

• Skills gaps in Local Areas