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Exploring the upside of risk optimize the IT portfolio
“Opportunities multiply as they are seized.”
Sun Tzu
Alliander IT CIO Office Michel de Goede
2. The EU (1/3)
Low prices for all, better quality, more choice
Innovation
Better competitors in global markets
2. The EU (3/3)
2020 Goals:
• 20% reduction of greenhouse gas emission
• 20% share for renewable energy sources
• 20% saving in energy consumption
Measures:
• Step up energy performance
• Improve energy transformation
• Financing
• Change behaviour
3. Issues of a grid operator: Electric vehicles (1/5)
• Roll out of thousands of electric vehicle charging stations
• Grid Capacity is insufficient
• What if we use cars as backup energy storage?
3. Issues of a grid operator: Two way traffic (2/5)
Monetary flow
Information flow
Transmission Trade/PRP/
Shipper Distribution Supply Metering Production
Physical flow
© Jeroen Scheer, Alliander, 2011
• Flows change
• Capacity increase
3. Issues of a grid operator: Smart metering and home automation (3/5)
• Roll out of 5 Million Smart Meters (Gas + Electricity)
• Inform customer regarding energy consumption and create
awareness
• Respect privacy concerns
• Manage the potential data ocean
3. Issues of a grid operator: Smart city initiatives (4/5)
• Combination of various techniques (Amsterdam)
• Self healing and self regulating micro grid (Bronsbergen)
3. Issues of a grid operator: Smart grid (5/5)
• Accommodate higher peaks and two-way traffic through intelligence
• Accomodate energy transition scenario’s through intelligence
• Provide the necessary information to all parties involved
4. Innovation: And then there is also..... (4/5)
Sources: Wired, PSFK, Google, Motorola, Artefact Group, Glow Caps
Business Processes
4. Innovation: into the virtual world (5/5)
Virtual World Personal
Devices
Home Automation Operational Technology
IT Connected
Organizations
Crime
5. Business Model Innovation: choose your battles well (3/5)
There typically are 6 potential treatments for both the up and downside of risk:
• Ignore, the ostrich ‘see-no-evil-hear-no-evil’ tactic;
• Accept, the potential impact of some risks may be deemed acceptable to your
organization;
• Reduce, e.g. the potential impact or probability of occurrence of a risk, like the
banking app;
• Transfer, use insurance or subcontracting to transfer potential consequences of risk;
• Avoid , not entering the type of business that may incur potential risk impact deemed
too high;
• Exploit, risk is also an opportunity and high risk investments may yield high returns.
5. Business Model Innovation: Real option planning (4/5)
Source: Ronald Poppe, Reader Financial Engineering, Rotterdam School of Management / Erasmus University
Bankers understand steady cash-flows
Insurance companies understand risk
1. Calculate future cash-flows
2. Calculate volatility
3. Calculate option value
6. Implementation: Learn from the past (1/6)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Traditional
Ad-Hoc
Lean
Agile
Iterative
Successful Challenged Failed
Copyright: Scott W. Ambler (see www.ambysoft.com/surveys/)
Cross functional teams
• Product driven
• No projects
• No ITIL
Self Service
• Automated Testing
• Automated Configuration
Streamlined Operating Procedures
• Continuous Integration
• Collaborative Development
• Continuous Monitoring & Feedback
DevOps properties1
Preconditions DevOps
Impact our time1 Lead to business outcomes1
Agility
Resiliency
1 See also:: http://www.pwc.com/us/en/technology-forecast/2013/issue2/features/cios-agility-stability-paradox.jhtml
6. Implementation: Use DevOps if possible, PMO if necessary (4/6)
6. Implementation: 1 size fits all architecture pattern (5/6)
Internet (open)
Access Management
(access layer)
Representation
(presentation layer)
Authorization Management
(application layer)
Application
1
Application
n
May I enter the house?
What goods and services
am I allowed to
use in these rooms?
Any device
Offices (closed)
For which rooms do you
give me the key(s)?
What goods and services
am I allowed to
use in these rooms?
Protocol and data-
format decoupling
such as: Citrix,
HTML 5, JSON,
XML, Sybase SUP
and so on
Application
2 Application
3
6. Implementation: Allow for pro-active business scenario’s (6/6)
© Wim Bouman, Alliander IT
Needs semantics
7. Governance: The optimized portfolio
Source: http://toolsformoney.com/portfolio_optimization.htm/
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