AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT

March 10, 2015

TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. Yemen and Iran opened up direct flights between their capitals on a daily basis.

2. IRGC Qods Force Commander Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani played a prominent role in

launching the counter-ISIS campaign in Tikrit, Iraq.

3. The Tunisian military launched a large counterterrorism operation near the Algerian border.

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ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe al Houthis continue to control the Sana’a-based central government and are strengthening ties to Iran. A new Yemen-Iran

aviation agreement began direct flights between the two capitals and Iran reported that it had successfully freed a kidnapped

ambassador in Yemen. President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi continues to consolidate an alternative government in Aden.

Yemeni leaders are considering holding the talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, but the al Houthis and the General People’s

Congress party object to moving talks outside of Yemen.

Outlook: The al Houthis will probably continue to increase public communications with Iran as ties deepen.

SecurityThe al Houthi presence in al Bayda appears to be driving an alignment of interests between local tribes and AQAP. Al Bayda

tribesmen and Ansar al Sharia militants engaged in heavy fighting with al Houthi forces in al Bayda city and its surrounding

districts from March 1-4. Separately, Ansar al Sharia militants and Shabwah tribesmen, led by the Awalek tribe, massed near

the al Bayda–Shabwah border to prevent al Houthi expansion into Shabwah governorate.

Outlook: Al Bayda will remain a front between Ansar al Sharia and the al Houthis. It is unlikely that the al Houthis will be able to

move farther south as long as Ansar al Sharia maintains a presence in al Bayda.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)ISIS supporters in Yemen may be attempting to compete with AQAP. Pamphlets calling on Muslims to support ISIS’s caliphate

have been circulating through Lahij, Aden, Shabwah, and Hadramawt. AQAP has not released any official statement in

response to the declaration.

Outlook: It is highly unlikely that ISIS supporters in Yemen will be able to gain widespread support or gain operational superiority to AQAP.

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

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1) 28 FEB: Suspected U.S. airstrike killed four reported AQAP members in Bayhan, Shabwah.2) 01-04 MAR: Local tribes and Ansar al Sharia militants targeted al Houthi forces in districts surrounding al Bayda city. 3) 04 MAR: Ansar al Sharia militants attacked a military base in al Hawta, Lahij.4) 02, 04, 06 MAR: Militants targeted oil and natural gas facilities in Ma’rib and Shabwah.

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalNegotiations between the Somali Federal Government (SFG) and the breakaway state of Somaliland resumed in Istanbul, Turkey. Talks collapsed on March 2 and both sides blamed the other for the failure. Separately, Somali government forces and Ahlu Sunna wa al Jama’a (ASWJ) militants agreed to a ceasefire in the town of Guriel, Galgudud region, central Somalia following weeks of fighting.

Outlook: The quick collapse of talks between the SFG and Somaliland does not bode well for reconciliation between the two. The ceasefire in Galgudud does not address the root cause of the conflict between the government and ASWJ, which is ASWJ’s representation in the future federal state.

Security On February 28 Somali National Army troops supported by African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces attacked al

Shabaab in Elbur, Bakool region. Security forces also conducted a security operation in the Elbur district, Galgudud region on

March 4. The operation resulted in the capture of three suspected al Shabaab militants.

Outlook: Security forces continue to capture towns from al Shabaab in southern Somalia. While this increases the pressure on

the group al Shabaab has been able to continue to operate despite losing direct control of areas.

Al ShabaabAl Shabaab released a video on March 2 detailing the June 15 and 16 attacks in Mpeketoni and Poromko, Kenya. This was the second video in recent weeks al Shabaab has released which focused on past attacks in Kenya.

Outlook: The release of two videos on previous attacks in Kenya may be an attempt to attract recruits from the country or could be in preparation for another attack in Kenya.

HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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1) 28 FEB: SNA and AMISOM forces attacked al Shabaab forces in Elbur, Bakool region.2) 28 FEB: Al Shabaab conducted a VBIED attack in Mogadishu. 3) 01 MAR: Suspected al Shabaab car bomb killed a Puntland official in Galkayo, Mudugregion.4) 02 MAR:Suspected al Shabaab militants conducted a grenade attack on a military checkpoint, in Boosaaso, Bari region.

ASSESSMENT:AQIMAlgerian counter-terrorism operations appear to have degraded AQIM’s fighter rank. AQIM senior judicial official Abu al Hassan

Rashid al Bulaydi released a letter indicating the lack of qualified men and fighters in AQIM. Meanwhile, Algerian security

forces, in two separate operations in northern Algerian, arrested one armed unidentified militant and killed another. Both

operations occurred in areas near where previous operations against AQIM-linked militants have occurred.

Outlook: Unrest in Libya will continue to benefit AQIM and contribute to its overall ability to carry out smuggling operations in

the Sahel, but Bulaydi’s letter acknowledged an important organizational deficiency within AQIM.

Ansar al Sharia (Libya, Tunisia)The Tunisian military launched a large operation targeting militants in the mountainous regions near the Algerian border. A

number of Ubqa ibn Nafaa Brigade militants were reportedly killed from the shelling. In Libya, the Libyan military repelled a

major multi-axis attack on the Benghazi Port area by suspected Ansar al Sharia and allied Shura Council of Benghazi

Revolutionaries militants, which reportedly included detonating an SVBIED.

Outlook: Militant activity targeting Tunisian security forces and retaliatory counter-terrorism operations will likely increase,

particularly in the Kasserine region. Unrest in Libya will continue to fuel instability throughout North Africa and the Sahel.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)Some progress has been made in peace negotiations between the Malian government and Tuareg rebel groups. The Malian

government signed a preliminary peace proposal in Algiers, which proposed a greater representation of the northern

populations in national institutions. Despite the progress, the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) and the

Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) refused to sign the agreement, asking for more time to consult with their supporters in Mali.

Meanwhile, there were very few reported attacks, indicating that the separatist rebel groups are respecting the ceasefire

agreement. The most notable kinetic event was that a landmine exploded underneath an MNLA vehicle, killing three MNLA

members; it was not clear who planted the landmine.

Outlook: It is likely that the MNLA and MAA will refuse to sign the peace and reconciliation agreement and ask for complete

autonomy for Mali’s northern regions. The Malian government in turn will refuse to give these parties full autonomy.

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MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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MAGHREBWEST AFRICA

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1) 01-05 MAR: The Tunisian military launched a major operation to root out militants in the Kasserine and Jendouba regions, reportedly killing a number of Uqba ibn Nafaa militants. 2) 02-05 MAR: Suspected Ansar al Sharia and allied militants launched a failed attack on Benghazi Port, including detonating an SVBIED.

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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SAHELWEST AFRICA

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1) 01 MAR: A landmine exploded underneath an MNLA vehicle in Kidal, killing three MNLA members.

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ASSESSMENT:

Nuclear Negotiations

Regime members denounced Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s March 3 speech before Congress as a “political

show;” National Security and Foreign Policy Parliamentary Commission member Esmail Kowsari indicated that recent

disagreements between the U.S. and Israel over Iran’s nuclear program are a ploy to trick Iran into accepting an unfavorable

nuclear deal. Negotiations continued apace ahead of the P5+1’s March 31 deadline to reach a political framework; the U.S.

and Iran wrapped four rounds of bilateral talks in Montreux, Switzerland on March 4, and a meeting of the deputy foreign

ministers of the P5+1 and Iran took place on March 5.

Outlook: Iran will continue to pursue, and lay the domestic political groundwork for, a nuclear deal which includes the

immediate lifting of sanctions.

Regional Developments

IRGC Brig. Gen. Hossein Hamedani claimed that interfaith groups named “Keshab” have been formed in Syria to strengthen

unity and spirituality among Alawites, Christians, and Sunnis, as well as to promote the Islamic Republic’s revolutionary

values. Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) Head Hojjat al Eslam Mahmoud Alavi confirmed on March 5 that MOIS

officers led a covert operation in Yemen to rescue Iranian diplomat Nour Ahmad Nikbakht.

Outlook: The IRGC continues to mobilize the indigenous population in Iraq and Syria based on the Basij model. The

formation of interfaith youth groups, however, suggests that the IRGC is making a concerted effort to mitigate sectarian

violence to gain popular support.

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IRAN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN

1128 FEB – 06 MAR 2015

01 MAR: IRGC Qods Force Commander Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani played a prominent role in launching

the campaign against ISIS in Tikrit.

01 MAR: IRGC Brig. Gen. Hossein Hamedani announced the formation of a Basij organization in Syria

named “Sons of Jihad.”

01 MAR: IRGC Cyber Security Command Center for the Investigation of Organized Crimes announced that it

will employ the “Spider” cyber surveillance project to monitor cybercrimes on social media.

02 MAR: Arab and African Affairs Deputy to the Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said that the U.S.

is aiding and managing ISIS.

03 MAR: Parliament approved a budget of approximately $303 billion for next fiscal year.

03 MAR: Jabhat al Nusra kills Shi’a militia Fatimiyoun Brigade Commander Ali Reza Tavassoli in Syria.

03 MAR: IRGC 2nd Lt. Mohammad Sahebkaram Ardekani killed in Syria.

04 MAR: Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani warned that military action against Iran will be met with a strong

Iranian response.

04 MAR: Fourth round of direct U.S.-Iran nuclear talks concluded in Montreux, Switzerland.

05 MAR: A Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) operation successfully rescued diplomat Nour Ahmad

Nikbakht in Yemen.

05 MAR: IRGC Deputy Commander Brig. Gen. Hossein Salami said the “Persian Gulf” missile is ballistic.

05 MAR: Negotiations between deputy ministers of Iran and the P5+1 states took place in Switzerland.

06 MAR: IRGC Brig. Gen. Hamedani announced the formation of interfaith youth groups named “Keshab” in

Syria.

06 MAR: Planning and Strategic Supervision Deputy to the President Mohammad Bagher Nobakht stated

that next year’s government budget was planned irrespective of the outcome of nuclear negotiations.

ACRONYMS

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Atomic Energy Agency of Iran (AEOI)

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)

al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)

al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)

Ansar al Sharia Tunisia (AAS-T)

Asa’ib Ahl al Haq (AAH)

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)

Islamic State (IS)

Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH)

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH)

National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)

North Waziristan (NWA)

Pakistani Military (PakMil)

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)

Somalia National Army (SNA)

South Waziristan (SWA)

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT ANALYSTS

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org(202) 888-6576

Alexis Knutsenal Qaeda analystalexis.knutsen@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Mehrdad MoarefianIran analystmehrdad.moarefian@aei.org(202) 888-6574

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project,visit www.criticalthreats.org.

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