AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT October 14, 2015

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. Former IRGC Mohammad Rasoul Allah Unit Commander Brigadier General Hossein Hamedani was killed near the city of Aleppo on October 8 during an “advisory mission” to support Syrian government forces.

2. The Saudi-led coalition appears to be staging to secure Taiz governorate in central, which will be a hard fight, even as the al Houthis and allied factions express willingness to pursue a negotiated political settlement of the conflict.

3. Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) leader Asim Umar pledged allegiance to Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour, adding further weight behind al Qaeda’s support for Mansour’s faction.

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ASSESSMENT:

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al Qaeda NetworkAl Qaeda’s Syria-based affiliate, Jabhat al Nusra, reacted to the Russian air campaign. Jabhat al Nusra leader Abu Mohammed al Julani spoke in an October 12 video in which he called for reciprocal attacks against Russia, describing Russian support for the Assad regime as the final stage after the failure of the Western “Crusade.” Julani also placed bounties on the heads of Syrian President Bashar al Assad and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

An al Qaeda statement released October 9, but dated March-April 2015, called for Muslims to remain committed to a “rightly guided jihad,” not that of the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham, to avoid previous pitfalls, such as in Algeria and Afghanistan.

Al Qaeda’s affiliate in East Africa, al Shabaab, issued a statement on the violence surrounding the al Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem. Al Shabaab called for Muslims, as individuals or within a group, to stand up against Israel and the Jews globally to support the Muslims in Jerusalem. The statement echoed one released earlier by an Egyptian al Qaeda-linked figure, Hisham Ali Ashmawi (AKA Abu Omar al Muhajir al Masri). Al Qaeda affiliates have historically been responsive to events involving the Palestinians, though they have not been able to generate significant effects.

Outlook: Al Qaeda will continue to contest ISIS’s legitimacy based on ISIS’s actions and how it self-declared itself to be the Islamic Caliphate. Al Qaeda-linked groups in the Caucasus may heed Julani’s call to action against the Russian state.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesAl Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) leader Asim Umar resurfaced to release a video, pledging allegiance to Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour. Separately, AQIS spokesman Usama Mahmoud released a video eulogizing slain al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) officials, including former leader Nasser al Wahayshi.

The Pakistani military continued its ground and air operations in the Shawal Valley area of North Waziristan. The Pakistani military killed at least 22 militants during airstrikes in the Dattakhel area of North Waziristan, on October 11, 2015. Operation Zarb-e-Azb, the Pakistani military’s offensive in North Waziristan, is in its final phase.

Outlook: The Pakistani military will continue Operation Zarb-e-Azb to eliminate militancy in the tribal areas of North Waziristan.

AL QAEDA

ASSESSMENT:

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PoliticalThe al Houthis and forces loyal to former president Ali Abdullah Saleh are actively pursuing a negotiated political settlement. Representatives of the al Houthis and Saleh’s General People’s Congress (GPC) party accepted a UN peace plan on October 6. Saleh agreed to step down from the GPC chairmanship if the Saudi-led coalition ceases all attacks in Yemen and lifts the blockade. Coalition-backed Yemeni President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi dismissed the proposed peace plan as a “maneuver.”

Outlook: Hadi’s government will likely continue to delay negotiations, probably at the Saudis’ behest.

SecurityAnti-al Houthi forces backed by the Saudi-led coalition are attempting to both recapture al Houthi-held territory in Taiz and Ma’rib and secure strongholds. Anti-al Houthi forces secured the Dhubab coastal region outside of the port city, Mokha, and are preparing to retake the city. Coalition airstrikes targeted al Houthi strongholds and missile launch sites in northern and central Yemen. The Saudi military thwarted al Houthi militias attempting to cross the Saudi-Yemeni border. Popular resistance forces clashed with al Houthi units near the border between Taiz and Lahij. Emirati counterterrorism units arrived in Aden.

Outlook: Anti-al Houthi forces will secure Taiz and Ma’rib before attacking Sana’a. The al Houthis will consolidate positions around Sana’a in central Yemen, but will continue to target sites in southern Yemen and the Saudi border region.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenAQAP and ISIS continue to expand their operational capabilities. AQAP deployed additional militants in al Mukalla following anti-AQAP demonstrations. AQAP militants are fighting alongside popular resistance forces in Taiz and reportedly control security and taxation infrastructure in part of the city. ISIS Twitter accounts posted recruitment statements directed at Yemenis, and ISIS Wilayat Sana’a detonated an IED at the home of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh’s son.

Outlook: AQAP and ISIS will continue to exploit the security vacuum in Yemen to expand and strengthen recruitment. AQAP will consolidate its hold over al Mukalla while attempting to establish and expand governance in other Yemeni cities.

YEMENGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: YEMENGULF OF

ADEN

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1) OCT 06: ISIS Wilayat Aden-Abyan detonated four VBIEDs in Aden.2) OCT 06: Al Houthis mobilized in Lahij.3) OCT 08: Pro-Hadi forces recaptured Dhubab, Taiz.4) OCT 10: Stalemate in Sirwah, Ma’rib.5) OCT 12: UAE counterterrorism units arrived in Aden.6) OCT 12: AQAP cracked down on protests in al Mukalla, Hadramawt.7) OCT 12: Al Houthis fired anti-tank missiles at targets in Jazan, Saudi Arabia.

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ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalClan politics continue to play out in the federal government as talks about presidential impeachment begin. The impeachment movement is losing momentum after 14 parliamentarians withdrew their support, leaving 80 parliamentarians in favor of the motion. Future talks will provide parliamentarians a forum in which to discuss specific reasons for the impeachment of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

Outlook: The impeachment motion will likely be dropped, but it shows the continued clan divisions in Somali national politics.

Security African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and Somali National Army (SNA) forces made progress in clearing al Shabaab from populated centers in Somalia’s central territories by seizing control of a number of villages previously held by al Shabaab. Somali police cracked down on suspected al Shabaab militants around Mogadishu and in newly secured areas in the Central “Galmudug” State’s territory.

Outlook: Somali security forces will continue widespread arrests against individuals with alleged links to al Shabaab.

Al ShabaabAl Shabaab continues to control its strongholds in southern Somalia despite tactical losses to AMISOM and SNA troops. The group demonstrated it remains capable of targeted attacks against high-profile individuals by assassinating the nephew of Somalia’s president and kidnapping a senior Somali military official. The group attacked another military base, but was unable to generate the same effect as previous attacks that killed tens of soldiers.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will probably continue to probe at AMISOM and SNA defenses at military bases in southern and central Somalia.

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

HORN OF AFRICA

GULF OF ADEN

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1) 07 OCT: Al Shabaab kills Somali President’s nephew in Mogadishu.2) 07-12 OCT: Somali Police, SNA and AMISOM forces conduct arrests of al Shabaab suspects in multiple cities.3) 09 OCT: Kenyan Anti Terror Police arrest suspected al Shabaab recruiters in Nairobi.4) 07-11 OCT: Al Shabaab militants clash with SNA, KDF, and Ethiopian AMISOM contingent at various locations in the Gedo region.

ASSESSMENT:

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AQIM The Algerian People’s National Army (ANP) performed search operations around AQIM strongholds in Algeria’s north-eastern mountains. The ANP killed Bakari Ali, who had connections to AQIM and to Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the leader of al Murabitoun. Bakari Ali was not believed to have held a significant leadership position in either group.

Outlook: AQIM will defend its encampments should the ANP persist in its combing operations. It will also continue efforts to unify and coordinate among the radical Islamist militant groups in the region.

Ansar al Sharia (Tunisia)Tunisia-based militants groups increased their activities over the past week. The AQIM-linked Uqba Ibn Nafa’a Brigade executed a shepherd, killed two Tunisian army patrolmen, wounded four others and issued a threat against potential police informants. Tunisian border guards also arrested five armed Libyans in the military buffer zone, demonstrating continued attempts to move between safe havens in Tunisia and Libya. Gunmen attempted to assassinate Ridha Chareffedine, a ruling party parliamentarian, in Sousse.

Outlook: The Uqba Ibn Nafa’a Brigade may substantiate its threat by attacking any civilian it perceives to be an informant. However, they will likely remain defensive against Tunisian military units.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun) Suspected members of the Massena Liberation Front (MLF), a militant group associated with AQIM’s affiliate, Ansar al Din, carried out two deadly attacks on October 9. The first targeted civilians and a deputy mayor in Mopti in central Mali, and the second targeted police officers in Burkina Faso near the Malian border. Gunmen killed ten pro-regime Tuaregs and a senior official of the Coordination of the Movements of Azawad (CMA) in separate attacks in northern Mali.  Outlook: The uptick and geographic spread of violent attacks may undermine the implementation of the peace agreement thereby granting AQIM affiliates more space to conduct operations.

MAGHREB AND SAHEL

WEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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MAGHREBWEST AFRICA

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1) 07 OCT: An Algerian People’s National Army unit an AQIM-linked operative in Tebessa, Algeria.2) 08 OCT: Gunmen attempted to assassinate a ruling party parliamentarian in Sousse, Tunisia.3) 11-12 OCT: Uqba Ibn Nafa’a Brigade executed a shepherd, killed two army officers, and wounded four army officers near Jebel Samama, Tunisia.

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: SAHELWEST

AFRICA1) 06 OCT: Militants attacked pro-regime Tuaregs in Gao region, Mali. 2) 09 OCT: Suspected Massena Liberation Front members killed three civilians in Mopti, Mali, and three police officers in Burkina Faso. 3) 09 OCT: Gunmen killed a senior member of the Coordination of the Movements of Azawad in Ber, Mali. 4) 11 OCT: Gunmen killed 10 individuals linked to GATIA in northeast Mali.

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ASSESSMENT:

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Regional Developments and Diplomacy

Sepah News, the media arm of the IRGC, claimed that “ISIS terrorists” killed former IRGC Mohammad Rasoul Allah Unit Commander Brigadier General Hossein Hamedani near the city of Aleppo on October 8. President Hassan Rouhani called Hamedani’s death a “great loss” and claimed that Hamedani was in Syria on an “advisory mission” to support the Syrian government. IRGC Deputy Commander Brigadier General Hossein Salami also praised Hamedani for his “key advisory role in the war against the takfiris.” IRGC Ground Forces Commander Brig. Gen. Mohammad Pakpour stated that Hamedani’s death will “strengthen” Iran’s resolve to “eradicate takfiri terrorists and their supporters.”

Outlook: Hamedani’s death may temporarily disrupt but will not fundamentally alter Iranian involvement in Syria.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei forbade expanding negotiations with the U.S. beyond Iran’s nuclear program on October 7. Senior Foreign Policy Advisor to the Supreme Leader Ali Akbar Velayati also reiterated that there is “no need” for relations with the U.S. In an interview on October 6, Iran’s Ambassador to Lebanon Mohammad Fathali emphasized that Iran resisted Western demands to address “regional issues” during the nuclear negotiations and added that the nuclear agreement “does not influence” Iran’s stances on regional issues. These comments by the Supreme Leader, Velayati, and Fathali challenge President Hassan Rouhani’s claim on September 29 that Iran will talk to “anyone, anywhere” to solve regional crises.

Outlook: Khamenei’s prohibition against expanding Iran-U.S. relations will override Rouhani’s call for flexibility regarding potential cooperation on regional issues.

IRAN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN

06 OCT: Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani accused the Saudis of using chemical weapons in Yemen in a meeting with members of Yemen’s Supreme Revolutionary Committee.

07 OCT: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled out the possibility of expanded negotiations with the U.S. during a meeting with IRGC Navy commanders.

07 OCT: Senior Foreign Policy Advisor to the Supreme Leader Ali Akbar Velayati said that there is “no need” for relations with the U.S.

07 OCT: Khatam ol Anbia Air Defense Base Deputy Commander Brig. Gen. 2C Amir Abu al Fazl Sepahrirad announced that Iran has fielded trainer versions of three new air defense systems.

08 OCT: Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif acknowledged that while Iran has changed the “nature” of its involvement in Syria, it has only sent “military advisors.”

08 OCT: An al Houthi delegation visiting Tehran condemned Saudi air strikes in Yemen during a press conference.08 OCT: An unnamed Iranian official denied U.S. media reports that four Russian cruise missiles fired at Syria crashed in Iran.08 OCT: Chief of Staff to the Supreme Leader Hojjat ol Eslam Mohammad Mohammadi Golpayegani reiterated calls for a

comprehensive investigation of the Hajj stampede led by Islamic countries.08 OCT: Advisor to the Commander of the IRGC Brig. Gen. Hossein Hamedani was killed in the vicinity of Aleppo city.09 OCT: President Hassan Rouhani issued a statement calling Hamedani’s death a “great loss.”09 OCT: IRGC Brig. Gen. Massoud Jazayeri, who is also the Armed Forces General Staff Headquarters Basij Affairs and

Defense Culture Deputy, claimed that the United States is responsible for Hamedani’s death.09 OCT: IRGC Ground Forces Commander Brig. Gen. Mohammad Pakpour praised Hamedani and claimed that his death will

“strengthen” Iran’s resolve to eliminate "takfiri terrorists and their supporters.” 11 OCT: Iran test-launched a new surface-to-surface ballistic missile named the Emad, Iran’s first precision-guided long-range

missile.11 OCT: Parliament voted to accept the “outline” of a resolution permitting the government to implement the JCPOA.12 OCT: Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Abbas Araghchi stated that the Emad missile test does not

violate the nuclear agreement.12 OCT: Iranian media reported that Washington Post correspondent Jason Rezaian was found guilty on espionage charges.

No further details on the verdict were released.

06 OCT – 12 OCT

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ACRONYMSAtomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI)International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Mehrdad MoarefianIran analystmehrdad.moarefian@aei.org(202) 888-6574

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirectorfkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569