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CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET UPDATE Monthly Sales and Price Statistics October 2015
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CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET UPDATE
Monthly Sales and Price StatisticsOctober 2015
SALES OF EXISTING DETACHED HOMESCalifornia, Oct 2015 Sales: 403,510 Units, +6.7% YTD, +1.3% YTY
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Oct-15: 403,51
0
Oct-14: 398,51
0
CALIFORNIA SALES
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Jan-00
Oct-00
Jul-01
Apr-02Jan
-03Oct-
03Jul
-04Apr-
05Jan
-06Oct-
06Jul
-07Apr-
08Jan
-09Oct-
09Jul
-10Apr-
11Jan
-12Oct-
12Jul
-13Apr-
14Jan
-15Oct-
15-60%-40%-20%
0%20%40%60%80%
100%120%140%
Year-over-Year % ChgMoving average (Year-over-Year % Chg)
CALIFORNIA SALES
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes, Seasonally Adjusted SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Jan-10Apr-
10Jul
-10Oct-
10Jan
-11Apr-
11Jul
-11Oct-
11Jan
-12Apr-
12Jul
-12Oct-
12Jan
-13Apr-
13Jul
-13Oct-
13Jan
-14Apr-
14Jul
-14Oct-
14Jan
-15Apr-
15Jul
-15Oct-
15-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%Year-over-Year % ChgMoving average (Year-over-Year % Chg)Sign of leveling
off
SALES BY REGION(EXISTING SFH)
SERIES: Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-1
3Nov
-13Jan
-14Mar-
14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-1
4Nov
-14Jan
-15Mar-
15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-1
5-25%-20%-15%-10%
-5%0%5%
10%15%20%25%
Bay Area Central Valley So CA
BAY AREA SALES (EXISTING SFH)
SERIES: Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-1
0Jan
-11
May-11
Sep-1
1Jan
-12
May-12
Sep-1
2Jan
-13
May-13
Sep-1
3Jan
-14
May-14
Sep-1
4Jan
-15
May-15
Sep-1
5-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%Bay Area Moving average (Bay Area)
CENTRAL VALLEY SALES (EXISTING SFH)
SERIES: Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-1
0Jan
-11
May-11
Sep-1
1Jan
-12
May-12
Sep-1
2Jan
-13
May-13
Sep-1
3Jan
-14
May-14
Sep-1
4Jan
-15
May-15
Sep-1
5-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Central ValleyMoving average (Central Valley)
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (EXISTING SFH)
SERIES: Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-1
0Jan
-11
May-11
Sep-1
1Jan
-12
May-12
Sep-1
2Jan
-13
May-13
Sep-1
3Jan
-14
May-14
Sep-1
4Jan
-15
May-15
Sep-1
5-25%-20%-15%-10%
-5%0%5%
10%15%20%25%
So CA Moving average (So CA)
SALES SHARE BY PRICE RANGE
$0 - $
199k
$200
- $29
9k
$300
- $39
9k
$400
- $49
9k
$500
- $74
9k
$750
- $99
9k
$1,00
0 - $1
,999k
$2,00
0k+
0%
10%
20%
30%
15%17% 17%
14%18%
9% 8%
3%
12%
18% 16% 14%
20%
9% 8%
3%
Oct-14 Oct-15
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CHANGE IN SALES BY PRICE RANGE(Year-to-Year)
$0 - $
199k
$200
- $29
9k
$300
- $39
9k
$400
- $49
9k
$500
- $74
9k
$750
- $99
9k
$1,00
0 - $1
,999k
$2,00
0k+
-25%-20%-15%-10%
-5%0%5%
10%15%
-20.6%
2.6%
-4.7%
4.9%10.3%
6.3%3.7% 1.3%
Oct-15
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
MEDIAN PRICE OF EXISTING DETACHED HOMES
California, Oct 2015: $475,990, -1.3% MTM, +5.7% YTY
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000 P: May-07$594,530
T: Feb-09$245,230-59% frompeak
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Oct-15: $475,99
0Oct-14: $450,46
0
INVENTORY DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE BAY AREA SINCE 2009
BUT REMAINED TIGHT
Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-150.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
2.5
3.64.0
Bay Area Central Valley So CA
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CA MEDIAN PRICE (EXISTING SFH)
SERIES: Median Price, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%Month-to-Month % Chg
INVENTORY CONTINUED TO DECLINE FROM LAST YEAR
Oct 2014: 3.8 Months; Oct 2015: 3.7 Months
Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
02468
1012141618
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%
0%10%20%30%40%50% Condo Single-Family Homes
HOME PRICE APPRECIATIONS HAVE MODERATED SINCE MID 2013
SERIES: Sales of SFH and Condo UnitsSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
YTY% Chg. in Price
PRICE PER SQUARE FOOTOct 2015: $237, Up 0.3% MTM, Up 2.8% YTY
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400PRICE PER SQ. FT.
SERIES: Median Price Per Square FeetSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SALES-TO-LIST RATIOOct 2015: 98.2%, Down 0.3% MTM, Up 0.7% YTY
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
102%
98.2%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio
SERIES: Sales-to-List RatioSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
DEMAND OUTPACING SUPPLY IN SO CAL AND CENTRAL VALLEY
San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley-20%
-10%
0%
10%
-9%
1%
5%4%
-10%
-6%
Sales Active ListingsYear-to-Year % Chg
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Oct 2015
