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2015 MEDA Annual Conference Anirban Basu

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The Pit and the Pendulum

On Behalf of

The Maryland Economic Development Association

Dawn  of  the  Dead  

Real  GDP  Growth,  20  Fastest  and  Slowest  Growing  Countries  Es#mated  2014,  Annual  Percent  Change  (for  available  na#ons)  

Rank Country Region % Rank Country Region % 1 Turkmenistan Central Asia 10.3 169 Austria Central Europe 0.3 1 Ethiopia Africa 10.3 170 Brazil South America 0.1 3 Democratic Republic of the Congo Africa 9.1 170 Micronesia Southeast Asia 0.1 4 Uzbekistan Central Asia 8.1 172 Japan Asia -0.1 5 Palau Southeast Asia 8.0 172 Finland Northern Europe -0.1 6 Mongolia Asia 7.8 174 Yemen Middle East -0.2 7 Myanmar Southeast Asia 7.7 174 The Gambia Africa -0.2 8 Côte d'Ivoire Africa 7.5 176 Barbados Caribbean -0.3 9 Lao P.D.R. Southeast Asia 7.4 177 Croatia Eastern Europe -0.4 9 Sri Lanka Southeast Asia 7.4 177 Italy Europe -0.4 9 Mozambique Africa 7.4 179 Brunei Darussalam Southeast Asia -0.7 9 China Asia 7.4 180 San Marino Europe -1.0

13 Dominican Republic Caribbean 7.3 181 St. Lucia Caribbean -1.1 14 Tanzania Africa 7.2 182 Serbia Eastern Europe -1.8 14 India Asia 7.2 183 Cyprus Europe -2.3 16 Rwanda Africa 7.0 184 Iraq Middle East -2.4 16 Cambodia Southeast Asia 7.0 185 Equatorial Guinea Africa -3.1 16 St. Kitts and Nevis Caribbean 7.0 186 Venezuela South America -4.0 19 Niger Africa 6.9 187 Ukraine Eastern Europe -6.8 19 Chad Africa 6.9 188 Libya Middle East -24.0

Source: International Monetary Fund, April 2015 WEO Database

Es<mated  Growth  in  Output  by  Select  Global  Areas  2015  Projected*  

3.0% -1.0%

0.9% 2.9%

7.5% 6.8% 6.6%

-3.8% 2.9%

4.5% 4.3%

3.1% 2.2%

2.7% 1.0%

2.5% 0.5%

1.6% 1.2% 1.5%

2.4%

-6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%

Mexico Brazil

Latin America and Caribbean Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan

India (2) China

Developing Asia Russia

Central/eastern Europe Sub-Saharan Africa

Emerging/developing countries (3) United States

Canada United Kingdom

Japan Spain

Italy Germany

France Euro area (4)

Advanced economies (4)

Annual % Change

1.  Real  effective  exchange  rates  are  assumed  to  remain  constant  at  the  levels  prevailing  during  February  6–March  6,  2015.  The  aggregated  quarterly  data  are  seasonally  adjusted.  2.  India:  Data  and  forecasts  are  presented  on  a  fiscal  year  basis,  and  GDP  from  2011  onward  is  based  on  GDP  at  market  prices  with  FY2011/12  as  a  base  year.  Growth  rates  in  the  January  2015  WEO  Update  were  based  on  the  GDP  at  market  prices  with  FY2004/05  as  a  base  year.  3.  Emerging/developing  countries:  The  quarterly  estimates  and  projections  account  for  approximately  80  percent  of  the  emerging  market  and  developing  economies.  4.  Euro  Area:  Excludes  Lithuania,  which  joined  the  euro  area  in  January  2015.  Data  for  Lithuania  are  not  included  in  the  euro  area  aggregates  because  Eurostat  has  not  fully  released  the  consolidated  data  for  the  group.  Lithuania  is  included  in  the  advanced  economies.  In  the  January  2015  WEO  Update,  Lithuania  was  included  in  the  emerging  market  and  developing  economies.    

Source: International Monetary Fund, April 2015 WEO Database

Jobs  0.3%  

Incomes  4.7%  

Profits  61.0%  

Housing  -­‐6.8%  

Stocks  33.5%  

-­‐70%  

-­‐50%  

-­‐30%  

-­‐10%  

10%  

30%  

50%  

70%  

2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014  

Percen

t  cha

nge  sinc

e  en

d  of  200

7  

What Lies Beneath

Source: BEA, BLS, S&P Case-Shiller, Yahoo! Finance

*Through  June  2014  

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Median  Weekly  Earnings,  Full-­‐Time  U.S.  Workers*  2000Q1  through  2015Q1  

*SA,  Constant  1982-­‐1984  dollars  (adjusted  to  CPI-­‐U)  Wage  and  salary  workers  ages  16+  

$315  

$320  

$325  

$330  

$335  

$340  

$345  

$350  

$355  

2000

Q1  

2000

Q3  

2001Q1  

2001Q3  

2002

Q1  

2002

Q3  

2003

Q1  

2003

Q3  

2004

Q1  

2004

Q3  

2005

Q1  

2005

Q3  

2006

Q1  

2006

Q3  

2007

Q1  

2007

Q3  

2008

Q1  

2008

Q3  

2009

Q1  

2009

Q3  

2010Q1  

2010Q3  

2011Q

1  20

11Q3  

2012Q1  

2012Q3  

2013Q1  

2013Q3  

2014Q1  

2014Q3  

2015Q1  

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment Cost Index 12-Month Percent Change (NSA)

All  Civilian  workers,  all  industries,  NSA  

0.0%  1.0%  2.0%  3.0%  4.0%  5.0%  6.0%  7.0%  8.0%  

2001Q2  

2001Q4  

2002

Q2  

2002

Q4  

2003

Q2  

2003

Q4  

2004

Q2  

2004

Q4  

2005

Q2  

2005

Q4  

2006

Q2  

2006

Q4  

2007

Q2  

2007

Q4  

2008

Q2  

2008

Q4  

2009

Q2  

2009

Q4  

2010Q2  

2010Q4  

2011Q

2  20

11Q4  

2012Q2  

2012Q4  

2013Q2  

2013Q4  

2014Q2  

2014Q4  

Wages  &  Salaries   Benefits  

Source: Moody’s Economy

Recession  Watch  as  of  December  2014  

Industrial  Produc<on  March  2001  through  March  2015  

Source: Federal Reserve

The  industrial  production  index  measures  the  real  output  of  the  manufacturing,  mining,  and  electric  and  gas  utilities  industries.  

80  

85  

90  

95  

100  

105  

110  

Mar-­‐01  

Jul-­‐01  

Nov

-­‐01  

Mar-­‐02  

Jul-­‐02

 Nov

-­‐02  

Mar-­‐03  

Jul-­‐03

 Nov

-­‐03  

Mar-­‐04  

Jul-­‐04

 Nov

-­‐04  

Mar-­‐05  

Jul-­‐05

 Nov

-­‐05  

Mar-­‐06  

Jul-­‐06

 Nov

-­‐06  

Mar-­‐07  

Jul-­‐07

 Nov

-­‐07  

Mar-­‐08  

Jul-­‐08

 Nov

-­‐08  

Mar-­‐09  

Jul-­‐09

 Nov

-­‐09  

Mar-­‐10  

Jul-­‐10  

Nov

-­‐10  

Mar-­‐11  

Jul-­‐11  

Nov

-­‐11  

Mar-­‐12  

Jul-­‐12  

Nov

-­‐12  

Mar-­‐13  

Jul-­‐13  

Nov

-­‐13  

Mar-­‐14  

Jul-­‐14  

Nov

-­‐14  

Mar-­‐15  

Inde

x  (200

7  =  100)  

(Base  year:  2007)  

Gross  Domes<c  Product  1990Q1  through  2014Q4  

-­‐10%  

-­‐8%  

-­‐6%  

-­‐4%  

-­‐2%  

0%  

2%  

4%  

6%  

8%  1990

Q1  

1990

Q4  

1991Q3  

1992

Q2  

1993

Q1  

1993

Q4  

1994

Q3  

1995

Q2  

1996

Q1  

1996

Q4  

1997

Q3  

1998

Q2  

1999

Q1  

1999

Q4  

2000

Q3  

2001Q2  

2002

Q1  

2002

Q4  

2003

Q3  

2004

Q2  

2005

Q1  

2005

Q4  

2006

Q3  

2007

Q2  

2008

Q1  

2008

Q4  

2009

Q3  

2010Q2  

2011Q

1  20

11Q4  

2012Q3  

2013Q2  

2014Q1  

2014Q4  P

erce

nt  Cha

nge  from

 Pre

ceding

 Per

iod  (SAAR)  

2014Q4: +2.2%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Contribu<ons  to  GDP  Growth  by  Component    2013Q4  –  2014Q4  

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

-­‐3.0  

-­‐2.0  

-­‐1.0  

0.0  

1.0  

2.0  

3.0  

Personal  Consumption  

Government  Spending  

Net  Exports   Gross  Investment  

2.5  

-­‐0.7  

1.1  0.6  0.8  

-­‐0.2  

-­‐1.7  

-­‐1.1  

1.8  

0.3  

-­‐0.3  

2.9  

2.21  

0.80   0.78  

1.18  

2.98  

-­‐0.35  

-­‐1.03  

0.61  

SAAR  (%

)  

Q4-­‐13   Q1-­‐14   Q2-­‐14   Q3-­‐14   Q4-­‐14  

Invasion  of  the  Body  Snatchers  

-­‐1,000  

-­‐800  

-­‐600  

-­‐400  

-­‐200  

0  

200  

400  

600  Jan-­‐02

 May-­‐02  

Sep-­‐02

 Jan-­‐03

 May-­‐03  

Sep-­‐03

 Jan-­‐04

 May-­‐04  

Sep-­‐04

 Jan-­‐05

 May-­‐05  

Sep-­‐05

 Jan-­‐06

 May-­‐06  

Sep-­‐06

 Jan-­‐07

 May-­‐07  

Sep-­‐07

 Jan-­‐08

 May-­‐08  

Sep-­‐08

 Jan-­‐09

 May-­‐09  

Sep-­‐09

 Jan-­‐10  

May-­‐10  

Sep-­‐10  

Jan-­‐11  

May-­‐11  

Sep-­‐11  

Jan-­‐12  

May-­‐12  

Sep-­‐12  

Jan-­‐13  

May-­‐13  

Sep-­‐13  

Jan-­‐14  

May-­‐14  

Sep-­‐14  

Jan-­‐15  

Thou

sand

s  

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

     March  2015:                    +126K  

Net  Change  in  U.S.  Jobs,  BLS  January  2002  through  March  2015  

Na<onal  Nonfarm  Employment  by  Industry  Sector  March  2014  v.  March  2015  

4

59

72

73

150

188

282

490

541

607

662

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Mining and Logging

Information

Government

Other Services

Financial Activities

Manufacturing

Construction

Leisure and Hospitality

Education and Health Services

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Professional and Business Services

Thousands, SA

All  told  3,128K  Jobs  gained  

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Maryland  Nonfarm  Employment  by  Industry  Sector  Groups  (SA)  March  2014  v.  March  2015  Absolute  Change  

-1,800

200

600

900

1,300

3,900

5,800

6,400

7,100

11,600

-4,000 0 4,000 8,000 12,000

Manufacturing

Other Services

Information

Financial Activities

Mining, Logging, and Construction

Government

Professional and Business Services

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Leisure and Hospitality

Education and Health Services

MD Total: +34.0K; +1.4%

US Total (SA): +3,128K; +2.3%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

*According  to  the  Local  Area  Unemployment  Statistics  (LAUS)  series  MD  added  37,169  jobs  between  March  2014  and  March  2015.    

2,450  

2,470  

2,490  

2,510  

2,530  

2,550  

2,570  

2,590  

2,610  

2,630  

2,650  Jan-­‐05

 May-­‐0

5  Se

p-­‐05

 Jan-­‐06

 May-­‐0

6  Se

p-­‐0

6  Jan-­‐07

 May-­‐0

7  Se

p-­‐0

7  Jan-­‐08

 May-­‐0

8  Se

p-­‐0

8  Jan-­‐09

 May-­‐0

9  Se

p-­‐0

9  Jan-­‐10  

May-­‐1

0  Se

p-­‐10  

Jan-­‐11  

May-­‐11  

Sep-­‐11  

Jan-­‐12  

May-­‐1

2  Se

p-­‐12  

Jan-­‐13  

May-­‐1

3  Se

p-­‐13  

Jan-­‐14  

May-­‐1

4  Se

p-­‐14  

Jan-­‐15  

Thou

sand

s  

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Maryland  Nonfarm  Employment  January  2005  through  March  2015  

-600

-600

200

600

1,200

1,300

2,100

2,500

2,900

5,500

-2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Mining, Logging, and Construction

Information

Government

Manufacturing

Other Services

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Financial Activities

Professional and Business Services

Education and Health Services

Leisure and Hospitality

Bal<more-­‐Columbia-­‐Towson  MSA  Nonfarm  Employment  by  Industry  Sector  Groups  (NSA)  March  2014  v.  March  2015  Absolute  Change  

Baltimore MSA Total: +15.1K; +1.1%

MD Total (SA): +34.0K; +1.4%

US Total (SA): +3,128K; +2.3%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Washington,  DC-­‐Arlington-­‐Alexandria  MSA  Nonfarm  Employment  by  Industry  Sector  Groups  (NSA)  March  2014  v.  March  2015  Absolute  Change  

-1,800

-1,500

-1,000

800

3,200

5,200

8,800

11,100

12,900

13,000

-5,000 -1,000 3,000 7,000 11,000 15,000

Information

Financial Activities

Manufacturing

Other Services

Mining, Logging, and Construction

Leisure and Hospitality

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Government

Professional and Business Services

Education and Health Services

DC MSA Total: +50.7K; +1.6%

US Total (SA): +3,128K; +2.3%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S.  Year-­‐over-­‐year  Percent  Change:  2.3%  

Employment  Growth,  U.S.  States  (SA)    March  2014  v.  March  2015  Percent  Change  

RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE % 1 UTAH 3.9 17 KENTUCKY 1.9 35 MISSOURI 1.3 2 FLORIDA 3.7 17 WISCONSIN 1.9 36 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 1.2 3 WASHINGTON 3.4 20 MASSACHUSETTS 1.8 36 ILLINOIS 1.2 4 OREGON 3.3 20 MINNESOTA 1.8 36 NEW HAMPSHIRE 1.2 5 IDAHO 3.2 20 TENNESSEE 1.8 36 NEW JERSEY 1.2 6 CALIFORNIA 3.1 23 INDIANA 1.7 40 KANSAS 1.1 6 GEORGIA 3.1 23 IOWA 1.7 41 RHODE ISLAND 1.0 8 NORTH DAKOTA 2.9 23 SOUTH DAKOTA 1.7 42 HAWAII 0.9 8 TEXAS 2.9 26 CONNECTICUT 1.6 42 PENNSYLVANIA 0.9

10 COLORADO 2.8 26 NEW YORK 1.6 44 MONTANA 0.8 10 NEVADA 2.8 28 OHIO 1.5 44 OKLAHOMA 0.8 10 NORTH CAROLINA 2.8 29 ALABAMA 1.4 44 VIRGINIA 0.8 13 ARIZONA 2.6 29 MARYLAND 1.4 47 LOUISIANA 0.7 14 SOUTH CAROLINA 2.5 29 NEBRASKA 1.4 48 MISSISSIPPI 0.6 15 DELAWARE 2.1 29 NEW MEXICO 1.4 49 MAINE 0.4 15 MICHIGAN 2.1 29 VERMONT 1.4 50 ALASKA 0.2 17 ARKANSAS 1.9 29 WYOMING 1.4 51 WEST VIRGINIA -0.5

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S.  Unemployment  Rate    March  2015:  5.5%  

Unemployment  Rates,  U.S.  States  (SA)    March  2015  RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %

1 NEBRASKA 2.6 17 WISCONSIN 4.6 35 WASHINGTON 5.9 2 NORTH DAKOTA 3.1 19 MAINE 4.8 36 ILLINOIS 6.0 3 UTAH 3.4 19 MASSACHUSETTS 4.8 37 NEW MEXICO 6.1 4 SOUTH DAKOTA 3.5 19 VIRGINIA 4.8 38 ARIZONA 6.2 5 MINNESOTA 3.7 22 KENTUCKY 5.1 39 GEORGIA 6.3 6 IDAHO 3.8 22 OHIO 5.1 39 RHODE ISLAND 6.3 6 VERMONT 3.8 24 PENNSYLVANIA 5.3 39 TENNESSEE 6.3 8 NEW HAMPSHIRE 3.9 25 MARYLAND 5.4 42 CONNECTICUT 6.4 8 OKLAHOMA 3.9 25 NORTH CAROLINA 5.4 43 ALASKA 6.5

10 IOWA 4.0 25 OREGON 5.4 43 CALIFORNIA 6.5 11 HAWAII 4.1 28 ARKANSAS 5.6 43 NEW JERSEY 6.5 11 MONTANA 4.1 28 MICHIGAN 5.6 46 LOUISIANA 6.6 11 WYOMING 4.1 28 MISSOURI 5.6 46 WEST VIRGINIA 6.6 14 COLORADO 4.2 31 ALABAMA 5.7 48 SOUTH CAROLINA 6.7 14 KANSAS 4.2 31 FLORIDA 5.7 49 MISSISSIPPI 6.8 14 TEXAS 4.2 31 NEW YORK 5.7 50 NEVADA 7.1 17 DELAWARE 4.6 34 INDIANA 5.8 51 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 7.7

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment  Rates,  20  Largest  Metros  (NSA)  February  2015  

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR

1 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.0 10

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5

2 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.1 12

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.8

3 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.3 12

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.8

4 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.5 14 St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.0

5 Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA 4.8 15

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.1

6 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.9 16

Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.3

7 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.3 17

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.5

7 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.3 18 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.7

9 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.4 19

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.8

10 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5 20

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.0

MD  County  Unemployment  Rates  February  2015  

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Rank Jurisdiction UR Rank Jurisdiction UR

1 Howard County 4.0 13 Talbot County 6.3

1 Montgomery County 4.0 14 Caroline County 6.6

3 Calvert County 4.7 15 Cecil County 6.7

4 Anne Arundel County 4.8 15 Washington County 6.7

5 Carroll County 4.9 17 Kent County 7.2

6 Frederick County 5.0 18 Allegany County 7.8

7 Charles County 5.2 19 Garrett County 8.1

7 Queen Anne's County 5.2 20 Wicomico County 8.3

7 St. Mary's County 5.2 21 Baltimore City 8.4

10 Prince George's County 5.3 22 Dorchester County 9.1

11 Harford County 5.5 23 Somerset County 10.1

12 Baltimore County 5.9 24 Worcester County 15.0

Nightmare  on  Elm  Street  

Taxes  MaUer  –  They  are  the  Item  that  is  Easiest  to  Quan<fy  and  Compare  

Source: Forbes

•  Between  2007  and  2012,  MD  raised  taxes  and  fees  24  times  

•  From  2000  to  2010,  66,000  residents  along  with  $5.5  billion  in  taxable  income  left  the  State  on  net.    ! Virginia,  by  comparison,  experienced  positive  net  migration  over  the  same  period  

Fastest/Slowest  Growing  MD  Municipali<es  Popula#on  Growth  April  2010  –  July  2013  

Source: State Department of Planning, Maryland Data Center

TOP 20 BOTTOM 20

Rank City/Place County % Rank City/Place County % 1 Upper Marlboro town Prince George's County 25.8% 141 Ridgely town Caroline County -1.4% 2 Leonardtown town St. Mary's County 19.5% 142 Friendsville town Garrett County -1.4% 3 Emmitsburg town Frederick County 10.3% 143 Luke town Allegany County -1.5% 4 Gaithersburg city Montgomery County 9.7% 144 Preston town Caroline County -1.7% 5 Takoma Park city Montgomery County 6.0% 145 Federalsburg town Caroline County -1.7% 6 Fruitland city Wicomico County 5.3% 146 Cumberland city Allegany County -1.8% 7 Centreville town Queen Anne's County 4.7% 147 Greensboro town Caroline County -2.0% 8 Rockville city Montgomery County 4.5% 148 St. Michaels town Talbot County -2.0% 9 North Chevy Chase village Montgomery County 4.3% 149 Lonaconing town Allegany County -2.1%

10 Poolesville town Montgomery County 4.3% 150 Queen Anne town (pt.) Talbot County -2.1% 11 Walkersville town Frederick County 4.2% 151 Trappe town Talbot County -2.1% 12 Havre de Grace city Harford County 4.0% 152 Barton town Allegany County -2.4% 13 Thurmont town Frederick County 3.9% 153 Galena town Kent County -2.5% 14 Kensington town Montgomery County 3.9% 154 Vienna town Dorchester County -2.5% 15 Somerset town Montgomery County 3.9% 155 Oxford town Talbot County -2.6% 16 Woodsboro town Frederick County 3.9% 156 Midland town Allegany County -2.7% 17 Salisbury city Wicomico County 3.8% 157 Westernport town Allegany County -2.7% 18 Garrett Park town Montgomery County 3.8% 158 Millington town (pt.) Kent County -2.8% 19 Chevy Chase View town Montgomery County 3.8% 159 Betterton town Kent County -2.9% 20 Myersville town Frederick County 3.8% 160 Frostburg city Allegany County -3.1%

Months of Inventory by Maryland County February 2015

Source: MAR

0  

5  

10  

15  

20  

25  

30  

35  

40  

Maryland:  6.4  Months  

15-­‐Year  &  30-­‐Year  Fixed  Mortgage  Rates    April  1995  through  April  2015*  

Source: Freddie Mac

2.92%

3.65%

1%  

2%  

3%  

4%  

5%  

6%  

7%  

8%  

9%  

10%  

Apr-­‐95  

Sep-­‐95

 Fe

b-­‐96

 Jul-­‐96

 Dec-­‐9

May-­‐9

7  Oct-­‐97  

Mar-­‐9

Aug

-­‐9Jan-­‐99

 Jun-­‐99

 Nov

-­‐9Apr-­‐00  

Sep-­‐00

 Fe

b-­‐01  

Jul-­‐01  

Dec-­‐01  

May-­‐0

Oct-­‐02  

Mar-­‐0

Aug

-­‐03  

Jan-­‐04

 Jun-­‐04

 Nov

-­‐0Apr-­‐05  

Sep-­‐05

 Fe

b-­‐06

 Jul-­‐06

 Dec-­‐0

6  May-­‐0

Oct-­‐07  

Mar-­‐0

Aug

-­‐0Jan-­‐09

 Jun-­‐09

 Nov

-­‐0Apr-­‐10  

Sep-­‐10  

Feb-­‐11  

Jul-­‐11  

Dec-­‐11  

May-­‐12  

Oct-­‐12  

Mar-­‐13  

Aug

-­‐13  

Jan-­‐14  

Jun-­‐14  

Nov

-­‐14  

Apr-­‐15  

Rate  

15-­‐yr   30-­‐yr  

*Week  ending  4/23/2015  

U.S.  New  Home  Sales  January  1999  through  March  2015  

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

March  2015  481K  

0  

200  

400  

600  

800  

1,000  

1,200  

1,400  

1,600  

Thou

sand

s,  SAAR  

U.S.  Housing  Starts  March  1999  through  March  2015  

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

0  

500  

1,000  

1,500  

2,000  

2,500  Mar-­‐9

Jul-­‐99

 Nov

-­‐99  

Mar-­‐0

Jul-­‐00

 Nov

-­‐0Mar-­‐0

Jul-­‐01  

Nov

-­‐0Mar-­‐0

Jul-­‐02

 Nov

-­‐0Mar-­‐0

Jul-­‐03

 Nov

-­‐0Mar-­‐0

Jul-­‐04

 Nov

-­‐0Mar-­‐0

Jul-­‐05

 Nov

-­‐0Mar-­‐0

Jul-­‐06

 Nov

-­‐0Mar-­‐0

Jul-­‐07

 Nov

-­‐0Mar-­‐0

Jul-­‐08

 Nov

-­‐0Mar-­‐0

Jul-­‐09

 Nov

-­‐0Mar-­‐1

Jul-­‐10  

Nov

-­‐1Mar-­‐11  

Jul-­‐11  

Nov

-­‐11  

Mar-­‐1

Jul-­‐12  

Nov

-­‐1Mar-­‐1

Jul-­‐13  

Nov

-­‐1Mar-­‐1

Jul-­‐14  

Nov

-­‐1Mar-­‐1

Thou

sand

s,  SAAR  

1  Unit   5  units  or  more  

March  2015:  1  Unit:  618K  5  Units  or  more:  287K    

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. Homeownership

2014  Q4:  63.9%  

60%  

62%  

64%  

66%  

68%  

70%  Q4-­‐1980

 Q4-­‐1981  

Q4-­‐1982

 Q4-­‐1983

 Q4-­‐1984

 Q4-­‐1985

 Q4-­‐1986

 Q4-­‐1987

 Q4-­‐1988

 Q4-­‐1989

 Q4-­‐1990

 Q4-­‐1991  

Q4-­‐1992

 Q4-­‐1993

 Q4-­‐1994

 Q4-­‐1995

 Q4-­‐1996

 Q4-­‐1997

 Q4-­‐1998

 Q4-­‐1999

 Q4-­‐20

00  

Q4-­‐20

01  

Q4-­‐20

02  

Q4-­‐20

03  

Q4-­‐20

04  

Q4-­‐20

05  

Q4-­‐20

06  

Q4-­‐20

07  

Q4-­‐20

08  

Q4-­‐20

09  

Q4-­‐20

10  

Q4-­‐20

11  Q4-­‐20

12  

Q4-­‐20

13  

Q4-­‐20

14  

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. Private New Multifamily Construction February 1993 through February 2015

$0  

$10  

$20  

$30  

$40  

$50  

$60  Fe

b-­‐9

3  Fe

b-­‐9

4  Fe

b-­‐9

5  Fe

b-­‐9

6  Fe

b-­‐9

7  Fe

b-­‐9

8  Fe

b-­‐9

9  Fe

b-­‐0

0  Fe

b-­‐01  

Feb-­‐0

2  Fe

b-­‐0

3  Fe

b-­‐0

4  Fe

b-­‐0

5  Fe

b-­‐0

6  Fe

b-­‐0

7  Fe

b-­‐0

8  Fe

b-­‐0

9  Fe

b-­‐10  

Feb-­‐11  

Feb-­‐12  

Feb-­‐13  

Feb-­‐14  

Feb-­‐15  

$  Billion

s  (SAAR)  

U.S.  Housing  Building  Permits  March  1999  through  March  2015  

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

0  

500  

1,000  

1,500  

2,000  

2,500  Mar-­‐9

Jul-­‐99

 Nov

-­‐99  

Mar-­‐0

Jul-­‐00

 Nov

-­‐00  

Mar-­‐0

Jul-­‐01  

Nov

-­‐0 1  Mar-­‐0

2  Jul-­‐02

 Nov

-­‐0Mar-­‐0

Jul-­‐03

 Nov

-­‐0Mar-­‐0

Jul-­‐04

 Nov

-­‐0Mar-­‐0

Jul-­‐05

 Nov

-­‐0Mar-­‐0

Jul-­‐06

 Nov

-­‐0Mar-­‐0

Jul-­‐07

 Nov

-­‐07  

Mar-­‐0

Jul-­‐08

 Nov

-­‐0Mar-­‐0

Jul-­‐09

 Nov

-­‐0Mar-­‐1

Jul-­‐10  

Nov

-­‐1Mar-­‐11  

Jul-­‐11  

Nov

-­‐11  

Mar-­‐1

2  Jul-­‐12  

Nov

-­‐1Mar-­‐1

Jul-­‐13  

Nov

-­‐1Mar-­‐1

Jul-­‐14  

Nov

-­‐1Mar-­‐1

Thou

sand

s,  SAAR  

1  Unit   5  units  or  more  

March  2015:  1  Unit:  636K  5  Units  or  more:  378K    

0%  

1%  

2%  

3%  

4%  

5%  

6%  

7%  

8%  

9%  

1.3%  2.1%  

2.5%  2.9%  

4.6%   4.7%   4.9%  5.7%   5.9%  

7.8%   8.1%   8.3%   8.4%  

12-­‐M

onth  %

 Cha

nge  

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros January 2015, 12-Month Percentage Change

Source: Standard & Poor’s

Maryland  Median  Home  Sale  Prices  February  2005  through  February  2015  

Source: Maryland Association of Realtors

-­‐20%  

-­‐15%  

-­‐10%  

-­‐5%  

0%  

5%  

10%  

15%  

20%  

25%  

30%  Fe

b-­‐05

 May-­‐05  

Aug

-­‐05  

Nov

-­‐05  

Feb-­‐06

 May-­‐06  

Aug

-­‐06  

Nov

-­‐06  

Feb-­‐07

 May-­‐07  

Aug

-­‐07  

Nov

-­‐07  

Feb-­‐08

 May-­‐08  

Aug

-­‐08  

Nov

-­‐08  

Feb-­‐09

 May-­‐09  

Aug

-­‐09  

Nov

-­‐09  

Feb-­‐10  

May-­‐10  

Aug

-­‐10  

Nov

-­‐10  

Feb-­‐11  

May-­‐11  

Aug

-­‐11  

Nov

-­‐11  

Feb-­‐12  

May-­‐12  

Aug

-­‐12  

Nov

-­‐12  

Feb-­‐13  

May-­‐13  

Aug

-­‐13  

Nov

-­‐13  

Feb-­‐14  

May-­‐14  

Aug

-­‐14  

Nov

-­‐14  

Feb-­‐15  

Year-­‐ove

r-­‐ye

ar  %

 cha

nge  

Trend  Line            

Feb. 2014 v. Feb. 2015: -3.7%

Psycho  

-­‐22.0%  

-­‐1.9%  

0.3%  

2.5%  

2.7%  

3.8%  

3.9%  

4.0%  

4.9%  

5.1%  

5.2%  

6.3%  

7.7%  

-­‐30.0%   -­‐20.0%   -­‐10.0%   0.0%   10.0%   20.0%  

Gasoline Stations

Electronics & Appliance Stores

General Merchandise Stores

Food & Beverage Stores

Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores

Furniture & Home Furn. Stores

Internet, etc. Retailers

Miscellaneous Store Retailers

Health & Personal Care Stores

Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores

Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers

Building Material & Garden Supplies Dealers

Food Services & Drinking Places

12-­‐month  %  change  

Sales Growth by Type of Business March 2014 v. March 2015*

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

*March  2015  advanced  estimate  

Conference  Board  Leading  Economic  Indicators  Index  August  2007  through  March  2015  

Source: Conference Board

-­‐1.5%  

-­‐1.0%  

-­‐0.5%  

0.0%  

0.5%  

1.0%  

1.5%  Aug

-­‐07  

Nov

-­‐07  

Feb-­‐08

 May-­‐08  

Aug

-­‐08  

Nov

-­‐08  

Feb-­‐09

 May-­‐09  

Aug

-­‐09  

Nov

-­‐09  

Feb-­‐10  

May-­‐10  

Aug

-­‐10  

Nov

-­‐10  

Feb-­‐11  

May-­‐11  

Aug

-­‐11  

Nov

-­‐11  

Feb-­‐12  

May-­‐12  

Aug

-­‐12  

Nov

-­‐12  

Feb-­‐13  

May-­‐13  

Aug

-­‐13  

Nov

-­‐13  

Feb-­‐14  

May-­‐14  

Aug

-­‐14  

Nov

-­‐14  

Feb-­‐15  

One

-­‐mon

th  Per

cent

 Cha

nge  

March  2015  =  121.4    where  2010  =  100  

Tell-­‐Tale  Heart  

•  Economy  gained  momentum  over  the  course  of  last  year;  

•  Tailwinds  included  booming  stock  market,  lower  gasoline  prices,  stabilizing  global  economy,  and  consumer  expenditures  on  interest  rate  sensitive  durable  goods  like  autos;  

•  The  current  year  is  associated  with  greater  certainty  regarding  monetary  policy  –  that  helps;  

•  The  world  is  not  perfect  -­‐  black  swan  threats  remain:  (1)  Iran  (2)  Israel/Iran  (3)  Europe  (4)  contagion  (5)  cyber  (6)  EMP;  

•  Market  is  nervous,  but  perhaps  for  the  wrong  reasons  (more  people  benefit  from  lower  oil  price  than  are  hurt);  and  

•  Our  time  in  the  wilderness  is  over  –  the  themes  of  job  creation,  income  growth,  fiscal  sustainability,  private  industry,  diversification,  and  One  Maryland  are  back  in  style.  

Thank  You  ! Follow  us  on  Twitter  @SagePolicyGroup  ! You  can  always  reach  me  at  [email protected]  

! Please  look  for  updates  of  information  at  www.sagepolicy.com.  

! Also,  if  you  need  us  in  a  hurry,  we  are  at  410.522.7243  (410.522.SAGE)  

! Please  contact  us  when  you  require  economic  research  &  policy  analysis.  


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