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Infrastructure Challenges
and Potential for Africa
South of the Sahara
Maximo Torero
IFPRI
Key points
What we know on infrastructure in SSA
Estimated effects on costs
Estimated infrastructure gaps
Why is central for increasing income and
reducing income inequality – example of energy
Importance of complementarities
How we move forwardPage 2
Key points
What we know on infrastructure in SSA
Estimated effects on costs
Estimated infrastructure gaps
Why is central for increasing income and
reducing income inequality – example of energy
Importance of complementarities
How we move forwardPage 3
Page 4
Infrastructure Coverage is Low
World Low Income SSA
Rural Urb. Total Rural Urb. Total Rural Urb. Total
% Population with electricity 72 97 85 12 59 25 15 72 35
% Population with access to safe
water
82 96 89 55 87 63 52 85 64
% Population with improved
sanitation
46 79 64 22 39 27 23 41 30
Telephone subscriber / 1000
people
160 8 11
Cellular subscribers / 1000 people 931 507 659
Paved roads (% of total) 57 20.6 15.6
Page 5
Unequal Access to Infrastructure in Africa
Quintiles
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Safe water 34% 49% 54% 67% 85%
Network electricity 0% 4% 12% 28% 71%
Transport to school
(% in less than 30mn)
62% 65% 66% 68% 72%
Transport to Health
(% in less than 30mn)
56% 60% 70% 73% 79%
Very large access disparities across income categories
Electricity is the most unequal
Page 6
Source: http://trendvee.com/africa-at-night-from-space/
Page 7
High Transportation costs
Notes: The extent of agriculture includes areas with at least 10 percent irrigated, cultivated or grazing
lands, net of areas with a growing season of zero days.
Source: Nelson (2006) and Sebastian (2007b).
Page 8
Access to roads
Page 9
Access to roads
Page 10
Cellular Phone subscription and Population
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Bill
ions
Population Cellular phones
Source: Mobile phone subscriptions are from the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and country categories are
from the World Bank.
Page 11
Ratio of Mobile Phone subscriptions to
Population in Developing Countries, by Region *
* EAP = East Asia and Pacific; ECA = Europe and Central Asia; LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean; MENA= Middle East and North Africa; SA = South Asia; and SSA =
Sub-Saharan Africa. High-Income (OECD and non-OECD) are excluded from the sample.
Source: Mobile phone subscriptions are from the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and country categories are from the WorldBank.
Source: Nakasone, Torero and Minten (2013). “The Power of Information: The ICT Revolution in Agricultural Development”.
IFPRI.
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
SA
OECD
SSA
LAC
ECA
MENA
EAP
Page 12
% Urban % Rural % All
Bolivia (2007) a/. 77.6% 18.7% 57.0%
Brazil (2009) a/. 83.3% 53.2% 78.8%
Colombia (2010) a/. 90.2% 71.7% 86.0%
Ecuador (2010) a/. 82.9% 59.7% 75.5%
Mexico (2007) a/. 66.6% 45.0% 55.2%
Peru (2010) a/. 82.2% 47.1% 70.4%
India (2011) b/. 76.0% 51.2% 59.2%
Bangladesh (2010) c/. 82.7% 56.8% 63.7%
Tanzania (2010) d/. 77.5% 34.2% 45.4%
Kenya (2010) e/. 71.9% 55.0% 59.8%
South Africa (2008 / 09) f/. 87.5% 82.0% 85.7%
Liberia (2009) g/. 69.0% 20.7% 43.2%
Malawi (2010) h/. 72.7% 32.3% 39.0%
Ghana (2010) i/. 63.4% 29.6% 47.7%
Nigeria (2009) j/. 88.3% 60.3% 70.6%
Egypt (2008) k/. 54.1% 27.8% 40.5%
Ehtiopia (2011) l/. 65.2% 12.8% 24.7%
Uganda (2011) m/. 86.8% 53.1% 59.4%
Senegal (2011) n/. 95.4% 81.7% 88.4%
Mozambique (2011) o/. 66.8% 20.0% 34.1%
Nepal (2011) p/. 91.6% 71.9% 74.7%
Zimbabwe (2011) q/. 90.1% 48.0% 62.2%
Rwanda (2010) r/. 71.8% 35.1% 40.3%
Cambodia (2010) s/. 90.1% 56.2% 61.9%
China (2010) t/. 76.3% 60.7% 67.9%
Percentage of Households that Own a Mobile Phone,
by Residence Area
Source: Nakasone,
Torero and Minten
(2013). “The Power of
Information: The ICT
Revolution in
Agricultural
Development”. IFPRI.
Ratio Land Lines to Population
Page 14Source: Nakasone, Torero and Minten (2013). “The Power of Information: The ICT Revolution in Agricultural Development”.
IFPRI.
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.252000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
SASSA
LAC
ECA
MENA
EAP
Ratio of Broadband Subscriptions to
Population
Page 15Source: Nakasone, Torero and Minten (2013). “The Power of Information: The ICT Revolution in Agricultural Development”.
IFPRI.
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.122000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
SASSA
LAC
ECA
MENA
EAP
On Irrigation
Source FAO : Latest data for 2012.
Page 17
Sub-
Saharan
Africa
South
Asia
All
Developing
Countries
Middle
Income
High
Income World
Agricultural land (as % of
land Area) 50% 55% 40% 46% 34% 39%
Irrigated land (as % of
cropland) 3% 46% 23% 28% 14% 21%
Page 18
On Ports
Location constraint for the sustainability of certain ports
Port capacity usually results from inadequate maintenance
Impact of port efficiency on port productivity and costs (dwell time may vary between a reported average of 7 days in Abidjan and 17 days in Douala)
Importance of a legal setting: the institutional framework of a port in WCA has depended primarily on its inheritance of either the French or the British models.
Cumbersome procedures and poor links to the hinterland reduce port efficiency
In addition, there are the traditional “non-infrastructure” and “non-official” barriers
Key points
What we know on infrastructure in SSA
Estimated effects on costs
Estimated infrastructure gaps
Why is central for increasing income and
reducing income inequality – example of energy
Importance of complementarities
How we move forwardPage 19
Africa’s infrastructure services several times
more expensive than elsewhere
International comparison of the costs of a basic plan of mobile telephony (prepaid) in 2009 US $ PPP
Source: Hernan Galperin, Broadband Prices in Latin America and the Caribbean, Working Paper #15 (Buenos Aires, Argentina: Universidad de San Andrés, 2013). Notes: PPP = purchasing power parity. Prices include taxes. Equipment and connection costs are not included. The low-volume basket includes 30 outgoing calls and 33 SMSs per month. The following structure of calls is assumed: local to fixed phones (15%), national (7%), mobile in-network (48%), mobile out-of-network (22%), and voice mail (8%). The estimations assume that 48% of calls take place during peak times, 25% in off-peak times, and 27% during the weekends. The following duration of calls is assumed (in minutes): 1.5 for local and national, 1.6 for mobile on-net, 1.4 for mobile off-net, and 0.8 for voice box. The tariffs are prorated according to the market shares of each operating company.
Disposable income for telecommunications in Brazil (5% of income) per income decile
Source: H. Galperin, Tarifas y Brecha de Asequibilidad de los Servicios de Telefonía Móvil en América Latina y el Caribe (Lima, Peru: Diálogo Regional sobre
Sociedad de la Información, 2009), 22.
Note: R$ = Brazilian real.
Key points
What we know on infrastructure in SSA
Estimated effects on costs
Estimated infrastructure gaps
Why is central for increasing income and
reducing income inequality – example of energy
Importance of complementarities
How we move forwardPage 23
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
Efficiency gap $17
Existing spending $45
0%
Spending needs $93
All figures in US$ billion a year
Infrastructure will require an additional US$31
billion a year and huge efficiency gains
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
Efficiency gap $17
Existing spending $45
0%
Spending needs $93
All figures in US$ billion a year
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
Efficiency gap $17
Improving operational
efficiency $7.5
Existing spending $45
0%
Spending needs $93
All figures in US$ billion a year
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
Efficiency gap $17
Increasing
cost recovery $4.7Improving operational
efficiency $7.5
Existing spending $45
0%
Spending needs $93
All figures in US$ billion a year
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
Efficiency gap $17
Increasing
cost recovery $4.7Improving operational
efficiency $7.5
Prioritizing
public spending $3.3
Existing spending $45
0%
Spending needs $93
All figures in US$ billion a year
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
Efficiency gap $17
Increasing
cost recovery $4.7Improving operational
efficiency $7.5
Spending budgeted
resources $1.9
Prioritizing
public spending $3.3
Existing spending $45
0%
Spending needs $93
All figures in US$ billion a year
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
Funding gap $31
Efficiency gap $17
Increasing
cost recovery $4.7Improving operational
efficiency $7.5
Spending budgeted
resources $1.9
Prioritizing
public spending $3.3
Existing spending $45
0%
Spending needs $93
All figures in US$ billion a year
Key points
What we know on infrastructure in SSA
Estimated effects on costs
Estimated infrastructure gaps
Why is central for increasing income and
reducing income inequality – example of energy
Importance of complementarities
How we move forwardPage 31
Impact path ways of rural electrification
El Salvador – Measuring Reduction of Indoor
Pollution
Cuelgue el cable de un
clavo o protuberancia en la
pared, columna, o techo
(marco de foto)
detector
1 metro
más de 1.50 metros de la
ventana o puertas operables
1.50 metros de
altura
Page 34
How does infrastructure affect
welfare?
Change in the
proportion of time
for activity “i”
Change in the total
number of hours
worked by the
household
Interaction
effect
Δ𝑌𝑖 ≈ 𝐿
𝑗
Δ𝑆𝑙𝑖𝑗𝑦𝑖𝑗
𝑙𝑖𝑗+ Δ𝐿
𝑗
𝑆𝑙𝑖𝑗𝑦𝑖𝑗
𝑙𝑖𝑗+ 𝐿
𝑗
𝑆𝑙𝑖𝑗Δ𝑦𝑖𝑗
𝑙𝑖𝑗+ Δ𝐿
𝑗
Δ𝑆𝑙𝑖𝑗𝑦𝑖𝑗
𝑙𝑖𝑗
Change in
returns to labor
Expected Results of Rural ElectrificationTerm Theme Indicator Expected Impact Gender heterogeneity
ImmediateCoverage and
Access
Percentage of households connected to the gridPositive No differentiated effect
Cost of electricity Negative No differentiated effect
Reliability of electric services Positive No differentiated effect
Short term
Coping costs
Number of sources used Negative No differentiated effect
Consumption of electricity Positive No differentiated effect
Energy input collection time use Negative Larger effect for females
Coping expenses in other energy sources Negative No differentiated effect
Health
Indoor pollution Negative No differentiated effect
Incidence of acute respiratory disease among
vulnerable groups Negative No differentiated effect
Education,
Leisure, and
Information
Hours in education or studying in the homePositive No differentiated effect
Hours spent in childcare No change No differentiated effect
Hours spent in entertainment and other leisure
activities Positive Larger effect for females
Productivity
Total hours of work Positive Larger effect for females
Percentage of hours of agricultural Negative Larger effect for females
Percentage of hours of non-agricultural work Positive Larger effect for females
In home business productivity/revenue Positive Larger effect for females
Long term Economic Growth Change in total income and expenditure Positive Larger effect for females
Percentage of poor households Negative Larger effect for females
Results of Rural ElectrificationTerm Theme Ethiopia El Salvador
ImmediateCoverage and
Access
15% points more likely to connect 11% to 19% more likely to connect
Spillover effects: 2% from baseline
of 41% connection rate25% of the effect of the voucher
Short term
Coping costs
Changes in use of kerosene for
lighting
Changes in use of kerosene for
lighting
No changes in cooking practices No changes in cooking practices
Health
N.A65% reduction in overnight air
pollutants
N.A
Reduction of 37-44% on acute
respiratory infections incidence
among children < 6
Education,
Leisure, and
Information
No effect Increase hours of studying in 7%
No effect More appliance ownership
No effectLeisure reduced in average by 0.7
hours per day
Productivity No changes Non agricultural independent
activities increased by 13%
Long termEconomic
Growth
N.AAnnual per capita income increased
in $ 186 (34% of baseline income)
N.A Positive distributional effects
Key points
What we know on infrastructure in SSA
Estimated effects on costs
Estimated infrastructure gaps
Why is central for increasing income and
reducing income inequality – example of energy
Importance of complementarities
How we move forwardPage 37
Page 38
Complementarities of infrastructure
Peru, 2002
Pipeline water
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
% c
hang
e of
PC
HH
Inco
me
Water +
electricity
Water + elect +
phone
Water + elect +
phone + road
Source: Escobal and Torero, 2004.
Infrastructure
does seem to
have an impact
on household’s
welfare
There exists
complementariti
es in the
provision of
different types
of infrastructure
Bangladesh, 2000-2004
Electricity
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
% c
hang
e of
PC
HH
Exp
Elec + phone Elec + road Elec + road +
phone
Source: Chowdhury and Torero, 2006
Page 39
How does infrastructure affect welfare?
PERU, 2002PSM (kernel); control group: HH with no assets
A) Households work more hours B) Households increase non-agricultural hours
of work
2 infrastruct 3+ infrastruct1 infrastruct
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
addi
tiona
l wee
kly
hour
s of
wor
k
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
% c
hang
e in
tim
e al
loca
tion
Ag salaried Non-ag salaried
Ag self-empl Non-ag self empl
1 infrastr
2 infrastr
3+ infrastr
Source: Escobal and Torero, 2004.
Page 40
Infrastructure seems to have different
impacts on men and womenBangladesh, 2004: ATT effects of infrastructure among men and women
(PSM among men and women)
ATT
Treatment: 1 infrastructure
Control: No infrastructure
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
-0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
dens
ity
Male
Female
Diff =
0.02
Treatment: 2 infrastructures
Control: No infrastructure
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5ATT
dens
ity
Male
Female
Diff =
0.04
Treatment: 3 infrastructures
Control: No infrastructure
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8ATT
dens
ity
Male
Female
Diff =
-0.08
Treatment: More than one infrastructure
Control: No infrastructure
0
5
10
15
20
-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4ATT
dens
ity
Male
Female
Diff =
0.02
Key points
What we know on infrastructure in SSA
Estimated effects on costs
Estimated infrastructure gaps
Why is central for increasing income and
reducing income inequality – example of energy
Importance of complementarities
How we move forwardPage 41
Page 42
1. Regional coordination to boost supply
capacities- corridor concept
Africa’s economic geography is a serious
challenge infrastructure is inherently
regional
• 20+ countries with populations of <5
million
• 20+ countries with economies of <US$5
billion
• 60 international river basins
• 15 landlocked countries
Page 43
Page 44
2. Prioritization
Need of evaluation and prioritization based on
ERR and PRR (result of wealth creation)
Prioritized infrastructure corridors with Economic
development corridors (potentially use a typology
of development domains).
Need to learn from existing information by
systematizing it and developing concrete plans to
implement it.
Page 45
Modeling Isoprofits
Page 46
AB
Modeling Isoprofits
Graphic representation of a stochastic production
frontier in the single-output, single-input case
Page 47
AB
Modeling
Isoprofits
Agricultural
typology areas
Mozambique
http://amazinglytimedphotos.com/soldier-yawning/#.U7Zny7HfpD8
We need to be out of synchrony
Page 49
3. Financing
Multilaterals HAVE to play a crucial role but they need to think regionally – Need to change their way of operation
Public – Private partnership for infrastructure development
Innovations to broaden and deepen markets including niche and preferential markets
4. Complementarities
Significant evidence of importance of
complementarities
Need to think on a value chain approach
Need to learn from experience with compacts
on infrastructure
• In Africa roads and electricity are
extremely costly for users
• One of the major restrictions to trade
underachievement is infrastructure
Page 51
5. On regulation
Recommend regulatory changes to enable themarket to work better
increased competition
open to new technologies
open to new business models
Outline an approach to subsidies to extend servicesbeyond the market
using market forces
minimal regulation
Page 52
5. On regulation (cont)
Distinguish two types of service shortfalls:
market efficiency gap
real access gap
For the market efficiency gap:
identify current regulatory problems and issues thatregulatory agency can address (example EU remedies forregulation)
examine new technologies that could help to reduce costs
For the real access gap:
draw on best practices developed in rural areas
complement and extend these for application in rural andperi-urban areas.
6. Governance and Accountability
Resources are needed from ODA, private
sector, and governments, but nothing will
work if the appropriate governance and
accountability is not in place
First is the need to reduce corruption and
allow incentives for proper work.
Second, monitoring systems and institutional
designs for basic accounting and regulation
are all neededPage 53
Page 54
Page 55
Page 56
INVESTMENT HOURS HOURS NET GAIN
GAIN LOST
MALI 20,560,940 2.1 6.50 -4.40
BURKINA DE FASO 20,560,940 2.1 3.60 -1.50
GHANA 20,744,700 1.9 3.60 -1.70
TOGO 22,256,140 2.6 3.00 -0.40
Source: USAID: Report on the First Results of the improved road
transport Governance (IRTG) initiative on interstate highways
7. Leapfrogging
Not need to repeat what happen in the past
and what was done in developed countries –
clear example is the cellular industry
Use best technologies
Use green infrastructure – this could be an
advantage in SSA
Page 58
Page 59
Thanks!