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Welcome to theLegislative Symposium
January 16, 2015
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Seminar 1: A General Overview on NH’s competitive advantage versus our Neighboring
States Time: 1:00-2:15pm
Mr. Steve NortonExecutive Director of the NH Center for Public Policy
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Tailwinds to Headwinds to ...
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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3rd Highest Median Age in the Country
Why?
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Astounding Growth
700,000
1968
1.3 million
2013
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Projections: Limited GrowthTen Year Percent Change in New Hampshire Population by Decade End
8.5%
13.8%
21.5%
24.8%
20.5%
11.4%
6.5%
3.3% 3.8%
1.1%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
ActualForecast
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Productivity
GDP Per Job
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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At the Economic Macro Level?
$-
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,000,000
$7,000,000
New Hampshire Total Compensation Paid by Selected Industries(Thousands of Dollars)
Manufacturing
Healthcare
Retail Trade
Finance
Construction
Education
Real Estate
Government
Hi-Tech
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Virtually all our public policy is based on a
picture of ourselves and trends that are not really
true any longer
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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What’s Next?
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Cultural and Natural Resources
• State spending on natural resources per person
• Percent of tree cover in urban areas
• Domestic tourism spending per capita
• Creative Economy Jobs Concentration
• Voter turnout rate• Volunteering rate
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Education, Labor and Workforce• Change in 35-44
population share, 2000 to 2010
• Percent of adult population with an associate degree or higher
• Percent of population in Science and Engineering workforce
• High school graduation rate
• Student debt per person
• Rate at which high school graduates go on to post-secondary institutions
• Percent of children aged 3 to 4 years old enrolled in preschool
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Fiscal Policy• State Business
Climate Tax Index• Top Marginal
Corporate Tax Rate • Public Health,
Welfare, Hospital Spending per Person in Poverty
• State Debt per Dollar of Personal Income
• Public Government and Administration per Dollar of Personal Income
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Energy• Industrial Electric
Prices • Natural Gas Prices
in Dollars per Million BTUs
• Energy Consumption
• Expenditures Per Capita
• Energy Efficiency Rank
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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How Does NH Rank?
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Working Age Population Will Decline in Every County
1%
-7%
-3%
-5%
-6%
-6%
-9%
-8%
-11%
-14%
-14%
-26%
-30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%
United States
New Hampshire
Strafford
Hillsborough
Rockingham
Sullivan
Merrimack
Belknap
Cheshire
Grafton
Carroll
Coos
Declines in Working Age Population 2010-2030
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Educating Our Own?
HS Graduation Rate? 4th in the Country
24th in the country in HS Grads going on to
a degree granting institute
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Workforce Development?
• Educate our own better …. ? • Make NH a place in which a new
generation of diverse, urban dwelling, millennials …. ?
• Narrow our economic focus to specific geography or industry?
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Building on Assets: For its size, the Nashua-Manchester Corridor is in the top 10 with fastest growing companies
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Merrimack – Hillsborough Corridor is Growing
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Hillsborough County … 2010 - 2020
2.5% 1.7% 2.7%
-0.1%
10.4%
38.9%
12.3%
24.5%
6.3%
0.9%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
Annual Job Growth by County 2010 to 2013, Share of Total Job Growth
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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“The Young and Restless—25 to 34 year-olds with a bachelor’s degree or higher level of education—are increasingly moving to the close-in neighborhoods of the nation’s large metropolitan areas. This migration is fueling economic growth and urban revitalization.”http://cityobservatory.org/ynr/
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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What’s the Goal?
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Converting Headwinds to Tailwinds: Workforce
• Workforcei. Better educate our own to support economic
activity ii. Ensure that we are a place that young
professionals want to move to and stay• Solutions
i. Support businesses in creating training feeder systems?
ii. Increase state spending on USNH & CCSNH?• But what is the return on investment?
iii. Scholarships to keep graduates in state?• Would these reach intended targets?
iv. Overall K-12 curricula, including STEM, etc?• How does this align with needs of future economy?
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Business Climate• Goal: Continue to be (improve our status as
a) business-friendly place• Solutions
i. Lower costs?• Health care• Energy• Real Estate
ii. Reduce business taxes?• What are unintended consequences for state budget?
iii. Reduce regulation?• How does NH really compare to other states?
iv. More aggressive recruiting and incentives?• Do these work? i.e. Smokestack chasing?
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Focus more effectively where we have a comparative advantage
i. Recognize regional variation in economic ecology and assets.
• Limit focus to geographic clusters?– Manchester: Hi-tech Millyard– Portsmouth: Build off UNH energy– Upper Valley: Dartmouth as incubator– Nashua: Extending high tech north
ii. Industry• Aerospace• Bio-tech• Travel tourism
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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The Long View of State Spending
2.85%
2.35%2.22%
2.06%
0.89%
-0.19%-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
Health andHumanServices
Admin ofJustice andPublic Prtn
ResourceProtection andDevelopment
Education GeneralGovernment
Transportation
Annualized Change in Per Capita Inflation Adjusted State Spending (Total Funds) 1990 to 2015
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies
Want to learn more?• Online: nhpolicy.org• Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy• Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy• Our blog: policyblognh.org• (603) 226-2500
Board of DirectorsWilliam H. Dunlap, Chair
David Alukonis
Eric Herr
Dianne Mercier
James Putnam
Todd I. Selig
Michael Whitney
Daniel Wolf
Martin L. Gross,
Chair Emeritus
Directors Emeritus Sheila T. Francoeur
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek
Brian F. Walsh
Kimon S. Zachos
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Seminar 2: NH’s Budget Overview
Time: 2:30 PM – 3:30 PM
Mr. Charlie ArlinghausPresident of The Josiah Bartlett
Center for Public Policy
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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General Fund 2000-2015
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1000000
1100000
1200000
1300000
1400000
1500000
1600000
Apples to Apples "general fund"15 year Average = 1.99%
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Priorities: 2012 vs. 2006$1,302M
General Fund*(-1.4%)
$629.3MHHS
(+4.4%)
$174MDD & BH(+34%)
$455MOther HHS
(-3.8%)
$565.8MNon-HHS(-10.9%)
$106.9MDebt Service
(+29.7%)
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Priorities: 2015 vs. 2013$1,470.6M
General Fund*(+9.8%)
$681.2MHHS
(+5.7%)
$215.7MDD & BH(+16.6%)
$465.5MOther HHS(+1.4%)
$668MNon-HHS(+14.4%)
$121.4MDebt Service
(+9.1%)
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Debt Balloon 1993-2013
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 $500.0
$550.0
$600.0
$650.0
$700.0
$750.0
$800.0
$850.0
$900.0
$950.0
$1,000.0
NH General Obligation DebtAnnual Growth 93-07: 0.67% -- 07-11: 9.5%
Debt
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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No Such Thing As Average
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-12.0
-8.0
-4.0
0.0
4.0
8.0
3.2
-2.9
3.3 3.6
8.7
5.56.3
1.0
-10.5
-3.6
-2.0
1.7
3.6
0.8
Average Tax Growth 2001-2014 = 1.3%not including rate increases or SPT, MET
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Two Major Modern Reforms
• 1970: Business Profits Tax
• 1993: Business Enterprise Tax
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Business Taxes Volatile 1978-1993
Growth Swings in 83 Point Range
60.7%
22.1%
-1.9%
-8.8%
39.1%
-9.0%
40.6%
9.0%
0.4%
34.5%
-8.9%
4.8%
-22.5%
0.9%
-18.2%
40.5%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Lessened Volatility 1994-2010
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
Growth Swings in 44 point Range
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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A 14 year Lost Decade
• 1981-2001: 50.8% Job Growth• (81-91: 27.5%; 91-01: 18.2%)• 2001-2011: 4.9% Job Growth
• If Ifs and buts were candy and nuts:i. 27.5% - 169,000 extra jobs.ii. 18.2% - 105,400 extra jobs
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Everything’s Better in Texas
Job Growth Since the Recession:
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
-0.11%
11.75%
0.44%
New Hampshire Texas US, less TX
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Another Look: Since 1983
1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 20130.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
Nation NH TX
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Comme Ci Comme Ca• Current Hole: $29.8 million• Quasi-balanced base• 2 years ago: $57**m surplus• 4 Years: $800m nightmare• Uncertain 2016-2017
i. Medicaid Enhancement Taxii. Dedicated Funds (16M)iii. Rainy Day Fund
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Fiscal Year 2006
State of NH
NH General Fund$72.9M
FederalGovernment
NH Hospitals+/-0
Tran
sfe
r to
G
F$72.9
M
DS
H
Paym
en
ts$72.9
M
MET
Reven
ues
$145.8
M
DS
H M
atc
h$72.9
M
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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State of NH
NH General Fund$74.8M
FederalGovernment
NH Hospitals-$50.2M (-$126.1M)
Tran
sfe
r to
G
F
$74.8
MD
SH
P
aym
en
ts$24.6
M
Gro
ss M
ET
Reven
ues
$175.3
M
DS
H M
atc
h$24.6
M
Pro
vid
er
Paym
en
ts$
75
.9M
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Charlie ArlinghausJosiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Seminar 3: Energy in the Granite StateTime: 3:45 PM – 4:30 PM
Mark Bailey Donna GamacheFacilities Engineering ManagerBAE Systems
Director, Governmental AffairsPublic Service of New Hampshire
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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MARK BAILEYFacilities Engineering Manager
Energy in the Granite State
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Electronic Systems footprint
11,300 Employees$4B Revenue25 Locations
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Electronic Systems origins
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Our Missions
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Energy Prices in NE
New England needs AFFORDABLE & RELIABLE energy
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Historical Electricity Prices Increases
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20134.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.59.09.5
10.010.511.011.512.012.513.0
Average U.S Electricity Prices by Sector
ResidentialCommercialIndustrial
Cent
s per
kW
h
Residential: consists of living quarters for private householdsCommercial: consists of service-providing facilitiesIndustrial: consists of all facilities and equipment used for producing, processing, or assembling goods.
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Site Electric Rates
ATX ENY FWA GNY PTP LEX MER NCA NHQ TNJ WNJ0.000
0.020
0.040
0.060
0.080
0.100
0.120
0.140
0.160
Electricity Prices (FY 2013)
$/k
Wh
Average Rate = 0.1053
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Performance Trends
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
En-ergy
305.026139955451
306.542108991794
290.385770790152
283.023246800703
272.080359232122
255
265
275
285
295
305
ES Energy
Mill
ion
kWh
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Water 234.580368 159.14712 122.360304 105.626136 93.19992
25
75
125
175
225
ES Water
Mill
ion
Ga
llon
s
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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BAE Actions to Stabilize Our Energy Future
• Conserve:Sustainability & Strategic Energy Programs(Real Estate Optimization, Energy Policy, ESA, UCT, MOE,
UBM & Supply Side Consulting)
• Learn:Stay current with energy market conditions & legislation
• Lead:Provide leadership by having a public voice
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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DONNA GAMACHEDirector, Governmental Affairs
WORKING TO PROVIDE NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH ENERGY SOLUTIONS
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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RESIDENTIAL ENERGY RATES ARE RISING
PSNH Unitil Liberty NH Electric Coop0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
9.90
8.40 7.70 9.00
0.66
7.10 7.80
2.60
2014 Price Recent Price Change
10.56
15.50 15.50
11.60
60
Non-Gas Power Plants Are Retiring:
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Energy Solutions for New Hampshire
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
PSNH’s fleet of power plants continue to run efficiently protecting customers from today’s volatile energy market
Grid Reliability Projects will improve reliability and add capacity to accommodate ongoing economic growth in the region
Northern Pass will bring 1200 MW of clean hydro power to the region
Access Northeast is expected to increase natural gas supply by 1 billion cubic feet per day
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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BOB DUNNDirector of Legislative and Governmental Affairs, Devine Millimet
OVERVIEW OF CHAMBER ADVOCACY EFFORTS
Thank You for AttendingThere will now be a reception in the Ashwood Court
January 16, 2015
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce
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Our Upcoming Events
Date: Wednesday, January 21, 2015Time: 12:00 PM – 2:00 PMLocation: Courtyard Marriot, Nashua
Date: Thursday, January 22, 2015Time: 8:00 – 9:30 AMLocation: Educational Outfitters, Nashua
Date: Wednesday, February 1, 2015Time: 5:30-7:30 PMLocation: Massage Envy Spa, Nashua
Date: Wednesday, February 18th, 2015Time: 7:30 – 9:00 AMLocation: Courtyard Marriott
Economic Outlook
Luncheon
TD Bank Networking
Series at Educational Outfitters
February Business
After Hours
State of the City: A Conversation with Our Mayor Donnalee Lozeau