2016 AIR Graphs-Feb21 - Nutrien · APC, CF Industries, ICL, Intrepid, K+S, Mosaic, SQM and Yara for...

2016 Annual Integrated Report

GRAPHS

PotashCorp 2016 AIR | Graphs Page 2

Source: CRU, Fertecon, IFA, PotashCorp

FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION GROWTH RATE FORECAST(percentage annual long-term global growth rate)

PhosphateNitrogenPotash

2.5-3.0%

1.5-2.0% 1.5-2.0%

Other

Belaruskali

Uralkali

* Refers to nameplate capacity, which may exceed operational capability (estimated annual achievable production) Source: IFA, CRU, company reports, PotashCorp

GLOBAL POTASH CAPACITY(percent KCl capacity*)

PotashCorpMosaicUralkaliBelaruskaliOther

22%

* Excludes the impact of natural gas hedgesSource: PotashCorp

POTASHCORP’S COMBINEDNITROGEN/PHOSPHATE GROSSMARGIN PROFILE*2016 (percentage of net sales)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Feed/IndustrialFertilizer

Source: United Nations Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs

GLOBAL POPULATION(billions)

7.5 9.7

2017 2050F




2.5-3.0%

1.5-2.0% 1.5-2.0%

Other

Belaruskali

Uralkali




22%



0

5

10

15

20

25




7.5 9.7

2017 2050F




2.5-3.0%

1.5-2.0% 1.5-2.0%

Other

Belaruskali

Uralkali




22%



0

5

10

15

20

25




7.5 9.7

2017 2050F




2.5-3.0%

1.5-2.0% 1.5-2.0%

Other

Belaruskali

Uralkali




22%



0

5

10

15

20

25




7.5 9.7

2017 2050F

WHY POTASHCORP?

Feed & Industrial

Fertilizer

Offshore

North America

North America Offshore

61%

39%

Fertilizer Feed & Industrial

10%

90%

Feed & Industrial

Fertilizer

Offshore

North America


61%

39%


10%

90%

Feed & Industrial

Fertilizer


61%

39%

Offshore

North America


16%

84%

Feed & Industrial

Fertilizer


61%

39%

Offshore

North America


16%

84%

Feed & Industrial

Fertilizer


37%

63%

Offshore

North America


28%

72%

Feed & Industrial

Fertilizer


37%

63%

Offshore

North America


28%

72%

Sales Volumes by Product Category

Sales Volumes by Region





WHO WE ARE AND WHAT WE DO


0

1

2

3

4

DevelopingCountries

DevelopedCountries

0

100

200

300

400

DevelopingCountries

DevelopedCountries

* 2005/07 to 2050F

Source: United Nations, FAO

POPULATION INCREASE BY 2050* (billions)

FOOD CONSUMPTION INCREASE*(kcal/person/day)

FERTILIZER IMPACT ON CROP YIELDS

Fertilizer impactAll other factors

* 2005/07 to 2050F

Source: FAO, IPNI

CROP PRODUCTION GROWTH FACTORS*(percent change)

Yield increaseLand expansionCropping intensity

80%

50%

0

50

100

150

200

250

2025F2020F2015201020052000

Source: Fertecon, CRU, PotashCorp

GLOBAL FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION(million tonnes)

Potash (K2O)Phosphate (P2O5)Nitrogen (N)

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

NEAR-TERM FACTORS

75

80

85

90

95

100

PhosphateNitrogenPotash0

10

20

30

40

50

60


75

100

125

150

Jan17

Sep16

May16

Jan16

Sep15

May15

Jan15

* Based on corn, soybean and wheat prices (weighted by global consumption)** Based on urea, DAP and KCl prices (weighted by global consumption)

Source: Bloomberg, Fertilizer Week

FERTILIZER AFFORDABILITY INDEX(January 2015 = 100)

POTASHCORP GROSS MARGIN(percentage of net sales)

GLOBAL OPERATING RATES(production as a percentage of global operational capability)

Crop Price Index* Fertilizer Price Index** 20162015 20162015

Source: CRU, Fertecon, PotashCorp Source: PotashCorp

75

80

85

90

95

100


10

20

30

40

50

60


75

100

125

150

Jan17

Sep16

May16

Jan16

Sep15

May15

Jan15








75

80

85

90

95

100


10

20

30

40

50

60


75

100

125

150

Jan17

Sep16

May16

Jan16

Sep15

May15

Jan15









POTASH OPERATING ENVIRONMENT0

20

40

60

80

2020F2018F2016E20142012201020082006200420022000

1%

6%

5%

15%

3%

1%

1%9%

0.5%

3%

14%40%

* Capacity totals based on year-end 2016; other countries total 1.5 percent

Source: CRU, IFA, company reports, PotashCorp

WORLD POTASH CAPACITY BY REGION*

Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp

GLOBAL POTASH SHIPMENTS(million tonnes KCl)

Shipments

CAGR – 2.5% to 3.0%

Forecast Shipment Range

0

20

40

60

80

2020F2018F2016E20142012201020082006200420022000

1%

6%

5%

15%

3%

1%

1%9%

0.5%

3%

14%40%

* Capacity totals based on year-end 2016; other countries total 1.5 percent

Source: CRU, IFA, company reports, PotashCorp

WORLD POTASH CAPACITY BY REGION*

Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp

GLOBAL POTASH SHIPMENTS(million tonnes KCl)

Shipments

CAGR – 2.5% to 3.0%

Forecast Shipment Range

NITROGEN OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

0

100

200

300

400

500

UkrainePort Plant

Russia –Yuzhnyy

Middle EastTrinidadUS GulfProducer

US MidwestProducer

Cash costs Freight to US Gulf Freight* to US Midwest

Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp

GLOBAL NITROGEN TRADE (percentage)

Percent traded

10%

28%

Ammonia Urea

* Includes related handling costs


US MIDWEST DELIVERED AMMONIA COST($ per tonne – 2016)

0

100

200

300

400

500

UkrainePort Plant

Russia –Yuzhnyy

Middle EastTrinidadUS GulfProducer

US MidwestProducer

Cash costs Freight to US Gulf Freight* to US Midwest


GLOBAL NITROGEN TRADE (percentage)

Percent traded

10%

28%

Ammonia Urea

* Includes related handling costs


US MIDWEST DELIVERED AMMONIA COST($ per tonne – 2016)


PHOSPHATE OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2016E2015201420132012

Integrated Non-integrated

Source: CRU, Fertilizer Week, PotashCorp

CASH COST OF PHOSPHORIC ACID PRODUCTION($ per tonne P2O5)

11%

42%

Source: CRU, PotashCorp

GLOBAL PHOSPHATE TRADE (percentage)

PhosphoricAcid

DAP/MAP

Percent traded

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2016E2015201420132012

Integrated Non-integrated

Source: CRU, Fertilizer Week, PotashCorp

CASH COST OF PHOSPHORIC ACID PRODUCTION($ per tonne P2O5)

11%

42%

Source: CRU, PotashCorp

GLOBAL PHOSPHATE TRADE (percentage)

PhosphoricAcid

DAP/MAP

Percent traded

10

15

20

25

30

2025 Target20162015

* Company-wide representation of women in management

Source: PotashCorp

WOMEN IN MANAGEMENT POSITIONS*(percentage)

0

20

40

60

80

100

20162015201420132012

Source: The Globe and Mail

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE PRACTICE SCORE(out of 100)

GOVERNANCE


0

3

6

9

12

15

DXAGSector Average*PotashCorp

0

5

10

15

20

20162015201420132012

* Sector: weighted average (based on market capitalization) for Agrium, APC, CF Industries, ICL, Intrepid, K+S, Mosaic, SQM and Yara for most recent four fiscal quarters available

Source: Bloomberg, PotashCorp

TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN(percentage – 2016)

CASH FLOW RETURN 1

(percentage)

1 See reconciliation and description of this non-IFRS measure on Page 91

Source: PotashCorp

0

3

6

9

12

15

DXAGSector Average*PotashCorp

0

5

10

15

20

20162015201420132012

* Sector: weighted average (based on market capitalization) for Agrium, APC, CF Industries, ICL, Intrepid, K+S, Mosaic, SQM and Yara for most recent four fiscal quarters available

Source: Bloomberg, PotashCorp

TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN(percentage – 2016)

CASH FLOW RETURN 1

(percentage)

1 See reconciliation and description of this non-IFRS measure on Page 91

Source: PotashCorp

0

30

60

90

120

150

2016201520142013

0

20

40

60

80

100

TrinidadUS

* Cash-related cost refers to total cost of goods sold less depreciation and amortization.

Source: PotashCorp

POTASH COST OF GOODS SOLD($ per tonne)

Depreciation and amortizationCash-related cost of goods sold*

Source: PotashCorp

AMMONIA RELIABILITY RATES(percentage – 2016)

2016 Target

0

30

60

90

120

150

2016201520142013

0

20

40

60

80

100

TrinidadUS

* Cash-related cost refers to total cost of goods sold less depreciation and amortization.

Source: PotashCorp

POTASH COST OF GOODS SOLD($ per tonne)

Depreciation and amortizationCash-related cost of goods sold*

Source: PotashCorp

AMMONIA RELIABILITY RATES(percentage – 2016)

2016 Target

Portfolio and Return Optimization Operational Excellence

Customer & Market Development

Stakeholder Communications & Engagement

People Development

Good Governance

0

20

40

60

80

100

Peer AveragePotashCorp

Source: Third-party survey

AVERAGE CUSTOMER SURVEY SCORE VS PEERS(percentage – 2016)

0

1

2

3

4

5

20162015201420132012

Source: Third-party survey

AVERAGE COMMUNITY SURVEY SCORE(out of 5)

0

4

8

12

16

20

20162015201420132012

Source: PotashCorp

EMPLOYEE TURNOVER RATE(percentage)

0

20

40

60

80

100

DJSIWorld

DJSINA

IndustryAverage 1

PotashCorp

1 RobecoSAM CHM Chemicals industry average

Source: 2016 RobecoSAM Corporate Sustainability Assessment in collaboration with DJSI

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE RATING(out of 100)


Total lost-time injury rateTotal recordable injury rate

20162015201420132012

Peer group average*PotashCorpPeer group lowest quartile*

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Total lost-timeinjury rate

Total recordableinjury rate

1.5

1.2

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.0

Source: PotashCorp

* Simple average based on most recent publicly available data from a sample of 16 leading global resource companies

Source: PotashCorp

SAFETY PERFORMANCE

SAFETY PERFORMANCE VS PEERS

Total lost-time injury rateTotal recordable injury rate

20162015201420132012

Peer group average*PotashCorpPeer group lowest quartile*

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Total lost-timeinjury rate

Total recordableinjury rate

1.5

1.2

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.0

Source: PotashCorp

* Simple average based on most recent publicly available data from a sample of 16 leading global resource companies

Source: PotashCorp

SAFETY PERFORMANCE

SAFETY PERFORMANCE VS PEERS

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

20162015201420132012

0

5

10

15

20

25

20162015201420132012

Source: PotashCorp

ENVIRONMENTAL INCIDENTS(number of incidents)

Source: PotashCorp

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS(CO2 equivalent tonnes per nitrogen product tonne)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

20162015201420132012

0

5

10

15

20

25

20162015201420132012

Source: PotashCorp

ENVIRONMENTAL INCIDENTS(number of incidents)

Source: PotashCorp

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS(CO2 equivalent tonnes per nitrogen product tonne)

Safety, Health & Environmental Excellence


0

5

10

15

20

17F16E1517F16E1517F16E1517F16E1517F16E15

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

2016E201520142013201220112010

Source: Fertecon, CRU, industry publications, PotashCorp

POTASH SHIPMENTS BY REGION(million tonnes KCl)

Source: CRU, TFI, company reports, PotashCorp

GLOBAL POTASH INVENTORY CHANGES(million tonnes KCl)

India Other Asia North America Latin America China

Estimated producer inventory change (production less sales)Estimated distributor inventory change (shipments less consumption)

Shipments PotashCorp forecasted shipment range

0

5

10

15

20

17F16E1517F16E1517F16E1517F16E1517F16E15

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

2016E201520142013201220112010

Source: Fertecon, CRU, industry publications, PotashCorp

POTASH SHIPMENTS BY REGION(million tonnes KCl)

Source: CRU, TFI, company reports, PotashCorp

GLOBAL POTASH INVENTORY CHANGES(million tonnes KCl)

India Other Asia North America Latin America China

Estimated producer inventory change (production less sales)Estimated distributor inventory change (shipments less consumption)

Shipments PotashCorp forecasted shipment range

POTASH

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

2016OtherOffshoreNorthAmerica

2015OtherOffshoreNorthAmerica

2014300

600

900

1,200

1,500

2016OtherCost ofGoodsSold

NetSalesPrices

SalesVolumes


NetSalesPrices

SalesVolumes

2014

Source: PotashCorp Source: PotashCorp

1,435 (215)

94 8 1,322 (343)

(535)

(7) 437

1,322 (37) (907)

66 (7) 437

1,435 (112)

(50) 841

POTASH GROSS MARGIN CHANGES BY MARKET($ millions)

POTASH GROSS MARGIN CHANGES BY VOLUMES, PRICES AND COSTS($ millions)


Gross margin Net sales prices

0

100

200

300

400

161514 Annual

Q4Q3Q2Q1 2016

Q4Q3Q2Q1 2015

Q4Q3Q2Q1 2014

Offshore sales North America sales Production Inventory

0

2

4

6

8

10

161514 Annual

Q4Q3Q2Q1 2016

Q4Q3Q2Q1 2015

Q4Q3Q2Q1 2014

Source: PotashCorp

POTASH GROSS MARGIN AND NET SALES PRICES($ per tonne)

Source: PotashCorp

POTASH SALES VOLUMES, PRODUCTION AND INVENTORY(million tonnes)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

201620152014

Life-altering injuriesTotal recordable injury rateTotal lost-time injury rate

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Total lost-time injury rate

Total recordable injury rate

2016201520140

4

8

12

16

20

201620152014

Environmental incidents Waste

0

4

8

12

16

Environmental incidents

2016201520140

1

2

16

17

18

19

20

Waste

POTASH PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS(KCl tonnes produced – thousands)

POTASH SAFETY HIGHLIGHTS(rate) (number)

POTASH EMPLOYEE HIGHLIGHTS(Employee turnover rate)

POTASH ENVIRONMENTAL HIGHLIGHTS(incidents) (million tonnes)

Source: PotashCorp Source: PotashCorp Source: PotashCorp Source: PotashCorp

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

201620152014


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0



2016201520140

4

8

12

16

20

201620152014


0

4

8

12

16


2016201520140

1

2

16

17

18

19

20

Waste






0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

201620152014


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0



2016201520140

4

8

12

16

20

201620152014


0

4

8

12

16


2016201520140

1

2

16

17

18

19

20

Waste






0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

201620152014


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0



2016201520140

4

8

12

16

20

201620152014


0

4

8

12

16


2016201520140

1

2

16

17

18

19

20

Waste







0

100

200

300

400

DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

China**

Latin America

Africa

Russia

Other Asia

Middle East

US

Source: Fertilizer Week

NITROGEN PRICES (2016)

* Based on industry consultant estimates; capacity is prorated for start-up timing in 2017** Net of additions and permanent closures

Source: CRU, Fertecon, company reports, PotashCorp

NITROGEN CAPACITY ADDITIONS (2017)*(million tonnes NH3)

UAN – FOB New Orleans ($/st)

Net additions = +6.8 MMT (~3%)

Urea – FOB New Orleans ($/st)Ammonia – CFR Tampa ($/mt)

0

100

200

300

400


-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

China**

Latin America

Africa

Russia

Other Asia

Middle East

US

Source: Fertilizer Week

NITROGEN PRICES (2016)

* Based on industry consultant estimates; capacity is prorated for start-up timing in 2017** Net of additions and permanent closures

Source: CRU, Fertecon, company reports, PotashCorp

NITROGEN CAPACITY ADDITIONS (2017)*(million tonnes NH3)

UAN – FOB New Orleans ($/st)


Urea – FOB New Orleans ($/st)Ammonia – CFR Tampa ($/mt)

NITROGEN

0

300

600

900

1,200

2016Hedge,Other

Solutions/NA/AN

UreaAmmonia2015Hedge,Other

Solutions/NA/AN

UreaAmmonia20140

300

600

900

1,200


NetSalesPrices

SalesVolumes


NetSalesPrices

SalesVolumes

2014


1,010 (154)

(49)(60) (41) 706 (203)

(51) (100)9 361

70684 (665)

238 (2) 361

370

(311)1,010 (66)

NITROGEN GROSS MARGIN CHANGES BY PRODUCT MIX($ millions)

NITROGEN GROSS MARGIN CHANGES BY VOLUMES, PRICES AND COSTS($ millions)


0

100

200

300

400

500

161514 Annual

Q4Q3Q2Q1 2016

Q4Q3Q2Q1 2015

Q4Q3Q2Q1 2014

0

2

4

6

8

161514 Annual

Q4 Q3 Q2Q1 2016

Q4 Q3 Q2Q1 2015

Q4 Q3 Q2Q1 2014

0

2

4

6

8

10

* In production, including hedge

Source: PotashCorp

NITROGEN GROSS MARGIN, NET SALES PRICES AND NATURAL GAS COSTS($ per tonne) ($ per MMBtu)

Source: PotashCorp

NITROGEN SALES VOLUMES(million tonnes)

Average natural gas costs*Gross margin Net sales prices Ammonia Urea Solutions, nitric acid, ammonium nitrate

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

N tonnes produced

2016201520140.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0



2016201520140

4

8

12

16

20

2016201520140

2

4

6

8

10


2016201520140

1

2

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Greenhouse gas emissions

0

25

50

75

100

Ammonia operating rate

NITROGEN PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS(thousands) (percentage)

NITROGEN SAFETY HIGHLIGHTS(rate) (number)

NITROGEN EMPLOYEE HIGHLIGHTS(Employee turnover rate)

NITROGEN ENVIRONMENTAL HIGHLIGHTS(incidents) (million tonnes)

Life-altering injuriesN tonnes produced Total recordable injury rateAmmonia operating rateTotal lost-time injury rate

Environmental incidents Greenhouse gas emissions 1

Source: PotashCorp Source: PotashCorp Source: PotashCorp Source: PotashCorp 1 CO2 equivalent tonnes/tonne of product

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

N tonnes produced

2016201520140.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0



2016201520140

4

8

12

16

20

2016201520140

2

4

6

8

10


2016201520140

1

2

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


0

25

50

75

100









0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

N tonnes produced

2016201520140.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0



2016201520140

4

8

12

16

20

2016201520140

2

4

6

8

10


2016201520140

1

2

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


0

25

50

75

100









0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

N tonnes produced

2016201520140.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0



2016201520140

4

8

12

16

20

2016201520140

2

4

6

8

10


2016201520140

1

2

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


0

25

50

75

100










200

400

600

800


* 100% P2O5 basis

Source: PotashCorp

PHOSPHATE PRICES (2016)($/mt)

GLOBAL PHOSPHATE CAPACITY ADDITIONS (2017)*(million tonnes P2O5)

CFR India Phos Acid*


CFR Tampa DAP

MoroccoSaudi ArabiaOther

* Based on industry consultant estimates; capacity is prorated for start-up timing in 2017

Source: CRU, Katana, Profercy, PotashCorp

35%

23%

42%

200

400

600

800


* 100% P2O5 basis

Source: PotashCorp

PHOSPHATE PRICES (2016)($/mt)

GLOBAL PHOSPHATE CAPACITY ADDITIONS (2017)*(million tonnes P2O5)

CFR India Phos Acid*


CFR Tampa DAP

MoroccoSaudi ArabiaOther

* Based on industry consultant estimates; capacity is prorated for start-up timing in 2017

Source: CRU, Katana, Profercy, PotashCorp

35%

23%

42%

PHOSPHATE

-100

0

100

200

300

2016OtherFeed &Industrial

Fertilizer2015OtherFeed &Industrial

Fertilizer2014-100

0

100

200

300


NetSalesPrices

SalesVolumes


NetSalesPrices

SalesVolumes

2014


202

59 (18) (2) 241 (93)

(111)

(5) 32

(2) 241 (15) (288)

99 (5) 32

202 (44)

102 (17)

PHOSPHATE GROSS MARGIN CHANGES BY PRODUCT MIX($ millions)

PHOSPHATE GROSS MARGIN CHANGES BY VOLUMES, PRICES AND COSTS($ millions)


-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

161514 Annual

Q4Q3Q2Q1 2016

Q4Q3Q2Q1 2015

Q4Q3Q2Q1 2014

0

1

2

3

4

161514 Annual

Q4Q3Q2Q1 2016

Q4Q3Q2Q1 2015

Q4Q3Q2Q1 2014

Source: PotashCorp

PHOSPHATE GROSS MARGIN AND NET SALES PRICES($ per tonne)

Source: PotashCorp

PHOSPHATE SALES VOLUMES(million tonnes)

Gross margin Net sales prices Fertilizer Feed & Industrial

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

P2O5 tonnes produced

2016201520140.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0



2016201520140

4

8

12

16

20

2016201520140

3

6

9

12


2016201520140

1

2

0

9

18

27

36

Water consumption

0

20

40

60

80

100

P2O5 operating rate

PHOSPHATE PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS(thousands) (percentage)

PHOSPHATE SAFETY HIGHLIGHTS(rate) (number)

PHOSPHATE EMPLOYEE HIGHLIGHTS(Employee turnover rate)

PHOSPHATE ENVIRONMENTAL HIGHLIGHTS(incidents) (cubic meters per tonne)

Life-altering injuriesP2O5 tonnes produced Total recordable injury rateP2O5 operating rateTotal lost-time injury rate

Environmental incidents Water consumption 1

Source: PotashCorp Source: PotashCorp Source: PotashCorp Source: PotashCorp 1 m3 per tonne of product

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000


2016201520140.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0



2016201520140

4

8

12

16

20

2016201520140

3

6

9

12


2016201520140

1

2

0

9

18

27

36

Water consumption

0

20

40

60

80

100

P2O5 operating rate








0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000


2016201520140.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0



2016201520140

4

8

12

16

20

2016201520140

3

6

9

12


2016201520140

1

2

0

9

18

27

36

Water consumption

0

20

40

60

80

100

P2O5 operating rate








0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000


2016201520140.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0



2016201520140

4

8

12

16

20

2016201520140

3

6

9

12


2016201520140

1

2

0

9

18

27

36

Water consumption

0

20

40

60

80

100

P2O5 operating rate









POTASHCORP’S GUIDANCE2017 Guidance vs 2016 Actual Results

2016 Actual Results

Source: PotashCorp

8.7 MMT to 9.4 MMT

$0.55B to $0.8B

$0.35 to $0.55

$0.15B to $0.4B

$145M to $165M

$(220)M to $(230)M

17% to 20%

17% to 20%

$(225)M to $(235)M

Potash sales volumes(included in potash gross margin below)

Potash gross margin

Nitrogen and phosphate gross margin

Share of earnings of equity-accountedinvestees and dividend income

Selling and administrative expenses

Finance costs

Annual effective tax rate

Provincial mining and other taxes as apercentage of total potash gross margin

Earnings per share

2017 Guidance

8.6 MMT

$0.44B

$0.39B

$128M

$(212)M

$(216)M

12%

28%

$0.38

2017 GUIDANCE

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

2017E2016

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

2017E20162017E2016

Source: PotashCorp

EARNINGS PER SHARE($)

Q1Actual: Q2 Q3 Q4Annual 2016 actual, 2017 guidance Annual upper guidance

0.38

0.55

0.35

Source: PotashCorp

GROSS MARGIN BY NUTRIENTS($ billions)


Potash Nitrogen & Phosphate

0.44

0.80

0.39 0.40

0.15

0.55

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

2017E2016

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

2017E20162017E2016

Source: PotashCorp

EARNINGS PER SHARE($)


0.38

0.55

0.35

Source: PotashCorp

GROSS MARGIN BY NUTRIENTS($ billions)


Potash Nitrogen & Phosphate

0.44

0.80

0.39 0.40

0.15

0.55


0

1

2

3

4

5

2016201520140

2

4

6

8

10

* Includes current portion

Source: PotashCorp

WEIGHTED AVERAGE DEBT OBLIGATIONSOUTSTANDING AND EFFECTIVE INTEREST RATES($ billions) (percentage)

Short-term rateShort-term debt Long-term debt* Long-term rate

4.9%

0.3%

4.7%

0.4%

4.8%

0.8% -200

0

200

400

600

800

Q4Q3Q2Q1 2016

Q4Q3Q2Q1 2015

Potash Nitrogen PhosphatePotash Nitrogen Phosphate

Source: PotashCorp

SEGMENT GROSS MARGIN($ millions)

OTHER EXPENSES AND INCOME QUARTERLY RESULTS

0 3 6 9 12 15 18

Liabilities and Equity, December 31, 2016

All other liabilities and equity

Retained earnings

Derivative instrument liabilities

Payables and accrued charges

Short-term debt and current portion of long-term debt

Liabilities and Equity, December 31, 2015

Assets, December 31, 2016

All other assets

Investments

Property, plant and equipment

Receivables

Assets, December 31, 2015

Source: PotashCorp

CHANGES IN BALANCESDecember 31, 2015 to December 31, 2016($ billions)

FINANCIAL CONDITION REVIEW


1 Includes capitalized interest and is based on a forecast exchange rate of 1.32 Canadian dollars per US dollar.2 To sustain operations at existing levels and for major repairs and maintenance, including plant turnarounds.

Source: PotashCorp

2017 FORECAST CAPITAL EXPENDITURES 1

($ millions)

Opportunity capital $69Sustaining capital 2 $538

RoutineEnvironmentPlant turnaroundHealth & SafetyMine development

LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2016Other

Dividends

Short-term debt obligations

Long-term debt obligations2015

Other

Repurchase of common shares

Long-term debt obligations2014

2016

Additions to

PP&E and other2015

Additions to

PP&E and other2014

2016Other

Receivables

Equity-acco

unted investees

Deferred income tax

Net income

2015Other

Inventories

Receivables

Net income

2014

Source: PotashCorp

CHANGES IN CASH FLOWS 2016 vs 2015 vs 2014

($ billions)

2.61 (0.26) 0.48 (0.17) (0.32)

2.34 (0.95)

(0.22) 0.10 (0.15) 0.14 1.26

(1.16) (1.28)

0.38

(0.90) (1.87) (1.18) (0.42)

(0.24)

1.06 (0.13)0.50 (0.11)

0.40 (0.03)

(0.12)

Cash provided by operating activities Cash used in investing activities Cash used in financing activities

0

20

40

60

80

100

Other

Phosphate

201620152014

Phosphate OtherPotash Nitrogen

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Working capital

Current liabilities

Current assets

201620152014

Source: PotashCorp

CASH ADDITIONS TO PROPERTY, PLANT AND EQUIPMENT(percentage)

$1.1B $1.2B $0.9B

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Source: PotashCorp

WORKING CAPITALAs at December 31

($ billions) (ratio)

Current assets Current liabilities Working capital Working capital ratio


1 The authorized aggregate amount under the company’s commercial paper programs in Canada and the US is $2,500 million. The amounts available under the commercial paper programs are limited to the availability of backup funds under the credit facility. Included in the amount outstanding and committed is $389 million of commercial paper.2 Letters of credit committed. We also have an uncommitted $100 million letter of credit facility against which $40 million was issued at December 31, 2016.

Source: PotashCorp

As at December 31, 2016(units)

Credit Facility 1

$0

$389

$3,111 $75

$0 2

$3,500 $0 $75

Line of Credit

Amount outstanding and committed Amount available

CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND MANAGEMENT

0

2

4

6

8

10

20162015201420132012201120102009*2008*2007*2006*-1

0

1

2

3

4

20162015201420132012201120102009*2008*2007*2006*0

20

40

60

80

100

1 See Page 93 for non-IFRS reconciliation.* Figures were prepared in accordance with previous Canadian GAAP.

Source: PotashCorp

($ billions) (percentage)

1 See Page 93 for non-IFRS reconciliation.* Figures were prepared in accordance with previous Canadian GAAP.

Source: PotashCorp

($ billions)

Net income as a percentage of sales Adjusted EBITDA margin 1Net income EBITDA1 Cash provided by operating activities Free cash flow 1

11 YEAR DATA


0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

201620152014

Source: PotashCorp

0

1

2

3

201620152014

Source: PotashCorp

NET INCOME PER SHAREUnaudited ($ per share)

Net income per share – basicNet income per share – dilutedDividends declared per share

Potash Nitrogen Phosphate

GROSS MARGIN BY SEGMENTUnaudited ($ billions)

-4

-2

0

2

4

201620152014 201620152014

Source: PotashCorp

CASH FLOWUnaudited ($ billions)

Cash provided by operating activities

Year ended December 31

Cash used in investing activitiesCash used in financing activities

Cash and cash equivalents

As at December 31

Consolidated Statements of Income

Consolidated Statements of Cash Flow


0

1

2

3

4

5

2016201520140

10

20

30

40

50

TOTAL ASSETSAs at December 31 – Unaudited(percentage)

Property, plant and equipmentInvestmentsCurrent assetsAll other non-current assets

TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITYAs at December 31 – Unaudited(percentage)

Retained earningsShare capitalAll other shareholders’ equityLong-term debtDeferred income tax liabilitiesCurrent liabilitiesAll other non-current liabilities

TOTAL DEBT AND TOTAL DEBT TO CAPITALAs at December 31 – Unaudited($ billions) (percentage)

Total debt Total debt to capitalTotal debt Total debt to capital

Source: PotashCorp

2016

2016

0

1

2

3

4

5

2016201520140

10

20

30

40

50







Source: PotashCorp

2016

2016

0

1

2

3

4

5

2016201520140

10

20

30

40

50







Source: PotashCorp

2016

2016

2016 HIGHLIGHTS UNAUDITED

161412161412161412

Sales

Year

Gross Margin

3.5

2.8

2.1

1.4

0.7

0.0

Source: PotashCorp

SALES AND GROSS MARGIN BY SEGMENT Unaudited

($ billions)

K N P K N P

Source: PotashCorp

SALES TO CUSTOMERS Unaudited

(percentage)

United StatesCanpotexLatin AmericaCanadaIndiaAll others

2016

-200

0

200

400

600

800

201620152014

0

10

20

30

40

Source: PotashCorp

INCOME TAX EXPENSE Unaudited

($ millions) (percentage)

Actual effective tax rate including discrete items

Current income taxDeferred income tax

Note 3 Note 8


0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

20162015201420132012

Basic Diluted

Source: PotashCorp

NET INCOME PER SHARE Unaudited

($ per share)

Source: PotashCorp

FINISHED PRODUCT INVENTORIES BY SEGMENTAs at December 31 – Unaudited($ millions)

Potash Nitrogen Phosphate

$269 $302

2016 2015

Note 9 Note 12

Land and improvements

10

11

12

13

14

15

2016Other

Depreciation

Additions

2015Other

Depreciation

Additions

2014

Source: PotashCorp

RECONCILIATION OF CHANGES IN PROPERTY, PLANT AND EQUIPMENT CARRYING AMOUNTAs at December 31 – Unaudited($ billions)

12.7

1.2 (0.7) 0.8 (0.7)

13.2 13.3

Source: PotashCorp

CARRYING AMOUNTS OFPROPERTY, PLANT AND EQUIPMENTAs at December 31 – Unaudited(percentage)

Machinery and equipmentBuildings and improvementsAssets under constructionMine development costsLand and improvements2016

0

1

2

3

4

5

161412161412161412161412

Source: PotashCorp

SIGNIFICANT INVESTMENTS – MARKET VALUE AND PURCHASE COSTAs at December 31 – Unaudited($ billions)

Market value

Equity-accounted investmentsAPCSQM

Available-for-sale investmentsSinofertICL

Purchase cost

Note 19

Land and improvements

10

11

12

13

14

15

2016Other

Depreciation

Additions

2015Other

Depreciation

Additions

2014

Source: PotashCorp

RECONCILIATION OF CHANGES IN PROPERTY, PLANT AND EQUIPMENT CARRYING AMOUNTAs at December 31 – Unaudited($ billions)

12.7

1.2 (0.7) 0.8 (0.7)

13.2 13.3

Source: PotashCorp

CARRYING AMOUNTS OFPROPERTY, PLANT AND EQUIPMENTAs at December 31 – Unaudited(percentage)

Machinery and equipmentBuildings and improvementsAssets under constructionMine development costsLand and improvements2016

Note 13


0

200

400

600

800

403626252420191817

Amount Interest rate

0

2

4

6

8

Source: PotashCorp

SENIOR NOTES OUTSTANDING AT DECEMBER 31, 2016Unaudited($ millions) (percentage)

Maturity Year

Note 21

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

Repurchased

Issued for dividend reinvestment plan

2016 2015 201420130.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Q4Q3Q2Q1 2016

Q4Q3Q2Q1 2015

Q4Q3Q2Q1 2014

Source: PotashCorp

SHARE CAPITAL CONSIDERATION Unaudited

($ millions) As at December 31 Year ended December 31

Total share capital Issued under option plansIssued for dividend reinvestment planRepurchased Dividends declared per share Earnings per share

Source: PotashCorp

DIVIDENDS AND EARNINGS PER SHARE Unaudited

($)

Note 22

0

1

2

3

4

5

201620150

10

20

30

40

50

Source: PotashCorp

NET DEBT AND NET DEBT TO ADJUSTED CAPITALAs at December 31 – Unaudited($ billions) (percentage)

Net debt Net debt to adjusted capital

Note 23

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Letters of creditTrust fund (CDN$)Future (undiscounted)payments under significant

guarantees providedto third parties

Source: PotashCorp

GUARANTEESAs at December 31 – Unaudited($ millions)

Note 25


Source: PotashCorp

FAIR VALUE OF PLAN ASSETS BY CATEGORYAs at December 31 – Unaudited(percentage)

Equity securitiesDebt securitiesInternational balanced fundCash, cash equivalents and other

2016

0

20

40

60

80

Defined Contribution Plans

Defined Benefit Other Post-Retirement Plans

2016201520140

20

40

60

80

100

Contributions (US$ millions)

2016201520140

20

40

60

80

100

Funded status

Source: PotashCorp

ANNUAL PENSION AND OTHER POST-RETIREMENT BENEFIT PLAN CONTRIBUTIONS Unaudited

($ millions)

Defined benefit pension plans Defined benefit other post-retirement plansDefined contribution plans Contributions Funded status

DEFINED BENEFIT PENSION PLANS’ FUNDED STATUSAND CONTRIBUTION LEVELS Unaudited

Year ended December 31 At at December 31($ millions) (percentage)

Source: PotashCorp

Note 26

0

20

40

60

80

Defined Contribution Plans

Defined Benefit Other Post-Retirement Plans

2016201520140

20

40

60

80

100

Contributions (US$ millions)

2016201520140

20

40

60

80

100

Funded status

Source: PotashCorp

ANNUAL PENSION AND OTHER POST-RETIREMENT BENEFIT PLAN CONTRIBUTIONS Unaudited

($ millions)

Defined benefit pension plans Defined benefit other post-retirement plansDefined contribution plans Contributions Funded status

DEFINED BENEFIT PENSION PLANS’ FUNDED STATUSAND CONTRIBUTION LEVELS Unaudited

Year ended December 31 At at December 31($ millions) (percentage)

Source: PotashCorp

0

10

20

30

Aggregate grant-date fair value

2016201520140

200

400

600

800

1,000

Stock options

Number of common shares

2016201520140

15

30

45

Weighted average exercise price

Source: PotashCorp

STOCK OPTIONS GRANTED Unaudited

($ millions) ($ per share)

Aggregate grant-date fair value Weighted average exercise price Number of common shares Stock options

Source: PotashCorp

TOTAL SHARES AND STOCK OPTIONS OUTSTANDINGAs at December 31 – Unaudited(millions)

Note 27

Source: PotashCorp

AGING OF TRADE RECEIVABLESAs at December 31 – Unaudited(percentage)

CurrentPast due

2016

Note 29


Rest of World

United Kingdom

Source: Ipreo

INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR BASE BY COUNTRYAs at December 31(percentage)

United StatesCanadaUnited KingdomRest of World

48%

38%

9%5%

Sell

Hold

Source: Ipreo

ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONAs at December 31(percentage)

Buy

29%

57%

14% HoldSell

SHAREHOLDER INFORMATION

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2016201520142013201220112010200920082007200620052004200320022001200019991998199719961995199419931992199119901989

HighCloseLow

0.850.69

0.810.60

1.050.74

1.251.01

1.421.01

2.341.24

4.391.80

4.833.33

4.993.94

5.402.69

4.122.36

4.452.33

4.272.90

3.842.76

4.853.05

9.334.06

8.09

12.79

8.68

16.35

14.68

50.63

15.85

80.54

21.22

27.95

41.37

51.68

38.44 36.73

63.97

48.00

28.55

44.13

30.09

38.58

14.64

19.88

16.65

37.60

* Data are adjusted for two-for-one stock split in August 2004, a three-for-one stock split in May 2007 and a three-for-one stock split in February 2011.

Source: FactSet

YEARLY POT STOCK PRICE SINCE INCEPTION* – NYSE COMPOSITE(dollars)

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