33
2018 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF SPAIN Making growth work for all 22 November 2018, Madrid @OECD @OECDeconomy http ://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-spain.htm
2018 OECD ECONOMIC
SURVEY OF SPAIN
Making growth work for all
22 November 2018, Madrid
@OECD
@OECDeconomy
http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-spain.htm
Growth has been robust
2
Source: OECD, Economic Outlook (database).
GDP growth, year-on-year % change
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Spain Euro area
The economy is increasingly more open
3
Exports as a share of GDP
Source: OECD, Economic Outlook (database).
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Employment has grown steadily
4
Source: OECD, Employment and Labour Force Statistics.
Employment rate% of population (15-64 year-olds)
50
55
60
65
70
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Unemployment is falling, but remains high
5
% of the labour force
1. As a percentage of 15-24 year-olds labour force.Source: Eurostat and OECD.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Unemployment Youth unemployment¹ Long-term unemployment
Non-performing loans have improved but remain
high
6
Ratio of NPLs to total loans
2018Q1 or latest
Source: IMF, Financial Soundness Indicators.
0
4
8
12
16
CA
N
ES
T
GB
R
CH
E
SW
E
AU
S
LUX
US
A
NO
R
DE
U
NLD
CZ
E
AU
T
BE
L
FR
A
ISL
HU
N
SV
K
LVA
PO
L
ES
P
IRL
PR
T
ITA
Banks will need more capital
7
Regulatory Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assets2018Q1
Source: IMF, Financial Soundness Indicators.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
ES
T
LUX
SW
E
IRL
LVA
FIN
LTU
DN
K
NLD
SV
N
NO
R
CZ
E
GB
R
GR
C
SV
K
DE
U
BE
L
PO
L
HU
N
CH
E
AU
T
FR
A
PR
T
ITA
US
A
ES
P
Public debt remains high
8Source: OECD, Economic Outlook (database).
% of GDP
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Population ageing will put pressure on pension
spending
9
Note: Based on implementation of both the 2011 and 2013 pension reforms and data from May 2018.Source: The Ageing Report (European Commission, 2018).
Gross public pension spending as a share of GDP
10
11
12
13
14
15
2016
2020
2024
2028
2032
2036
2040
2044
2048
2052
2056
2060
VAT tax revenue is low
10
Note: The VAT revenue ratio is the ratio of actual VAT collection to revenue that would be collected if VAT was applied at the standard rate to the entire potential tax base and all revenue was collected. Source: OECD (2018), Consumption Tax Trends 2018: VAT/GST and excise rates, trends and policy issues.
VAT revenue ratio,%
2015
0
20
40
60
80
100
ME
XIT
AG
RC
TU
RE
SP
PO
LG
BR
BE
LC
AN
IRL
FR
AN
LDP
RT
AU
SS
VK
LVA
ISL
FIN
OE
CD
DE
UN
OR
DN
KS
WE
CZ
EA
UT
SV
NH
UN
ISR
KO
RC
HL
CH
EJP
NE
ST
LUX
NZ
L
Public expenditures are highly decentralised
11
Source: OECD (2017), Government at a Glance 2017 (database).
0
20
40
60
80
100
DE
U
BE
L
ES
P
CA
N
FIN
NLD IT
A
DN
K
PO
L
FR
A
SW
E
AU
T
LUX
LVA
SV
K
SV
N
ISL
GR
C
HU
N
PR
T
CZ
E
NO
R
ES
T
GB
R
IRL
Central government expenditure as a share of total public expenditures
Main macroeconomic policy recommendations
1. Maintain momentum for structural reforms enhancing productivity and job creation.
2. Stick to medium-term fiscal targets to ensure a durable reduction of public debt.
3. As the recovery continues, set a more ambitious fiscal consolidation path.
4. Further extend the pensionable earnings reference period and the number of years of contributions required to gain a full pension.
5. Abolish reduced value-added tax rates that are regressive.
6. Increase taxation of fuels to better reflect emissions of CO2 and other pollutants.
7. Make the expenditure rule the main rule for regions and link it to the debt ratio targets.
12
Improving well-being and reducing
regional disparities
13
Income inequality is high
14
Source: OECD, Income Distribution and Poverty (database).
Gini coefficient after taxes and transfers2015 or latest
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
ME
XC
HL
TU
RU
SA
ISR
GB
RN
ZL
LVA
ES
PG
RC
AU
SP
RT
ES
TJP
NIT
AC
AN
OE
CD
NLDIR
LC
HE
FR
AK
OR
PO
LD
EU
HU
NLU
XS
WE
AU
TN
OR
BE
LF
INC
ZE
DN
KS
VK
SV
NIS
L
The rate of child poverty is high
15
%, 2015 or latest
Source: OECD, Income Distribution Database.
0
10
20
30
DN
KF
INS
VN
KO
RIS
LN
OR
SW
EIR
LD
EU
AU
TC
HE
NLD
CZ
EB
EL
GB
RF
RA
LUX
HU
NE
ST
LVA
AU
SO
EC
DP
OL
NZ
LS
VK
PR
TC
AN
GR
CLT
UIT
AM
EX
US
AC
HL
ES
PT
UR
ISR
Social expenditures are poorly targeted
16
Transfers received by working-age individuals% of average cash transfer
Source: OECD, Social Expenditure Database.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Poorest 20% Richest 20%
Spain OECD
Regional dispersion of poverty rates is high
17
At-risk-of-poverty rate2016
Source: Eurostat.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
SVN NOR DNK NLD POL HUN SWE FIN CZE SVK GRC CHE ESP ITA
National average Region with lowest poverty rate Region with highest poverty rate
Unemployment rates differ across regions
18
Source: OECD, Labour and Regional Statistics.
% of the labour force2017
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
OECD Region with lowestunemployment
(Navarra)
Spain Region with highestunemployment(Extremadura)
Job market programmes are not concentrated in
training
19
Participants in active labour market programmes
% of the labour force, 2015
Source: OECD, Employment and Labour Market Statistics.
0
5
10
DEU CHE AUT NOR SVK FIN IRL NLD PRT POL BEL SWE DNK FRA HUN ESP LUX
Training Other active measures
Regional migration rates are low
20
Migration flows across regions
% of total population, 2013-16
Source: OECD (2018), Regions and Cities at a Glance (database).
0
1
2
3
4
5
ITA ESP PRT OECD DEU NLD GBR
Regional disparities in school drop-out rates are
high
21
2017
Note: % of the population aged 18-24 with at most lower secondary education and not infurther education or training.Source: Eurostat.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Region with lowestdrop-out rate
(Basque Country)
European Union Spain Region with highestdrop-out rate
(Balearic Islands)
Participation in life-long learning by low-qualified
adults is relatively low
22
Participation by those with lower than secondary education2017
Source: Eurostat.
0
5
10
15
20
25
GR
C
PO
L
ITA
HU
N
TU
R
SV
N
CZ
E
IRL
BE
L
LVA
ES
P
PR
T
EU
28
DE
U
LUX
GB
R
AU
T
ES
T
FR
A
NLD
CH
E
ISL
NO
R
FIN
DN
K
SW
E
Recommendations for reducing regional
disparities for inclusive growth
1. Increase spending on training and job-search assistance.
2. Remove barriers to competition of training centres across regions.
3. Introduce a single point of contact for social and employment services.
4. Ensure full portability of social and housing benefits across regions, by providing temporary assistance either by the region of origin or the central government.
5. Increase individualised support to students at the risk of failing at an early stage.
6. Target existing financial incentives for lifelong learning opportunities to low-qualified workers and link them to individuals.
23
Boosting productivity and
internationalisation
24
Productivity growth has stagnated
25
Source: OECD, Productivity Database.
Multifactor productivity growth
95
100
105
110
115
120
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Spain France United States
Labour productivity differs across regions
26Note: Darker colours represent a higher level of labour productivity.Source: OECD, Regional Statistics database.
Canary Islands
Output per work (in thousands of euros)
Export participation of SMEs remains relatively low
27Source: OECD (2017), Entrepreneurship at a Glance.
0
10
20
30
40
50
ES
T
DE
U
AU
T
LUX
DN
K
CA
N
SV
N
LVA
BE
L
NLD
PR
T
GB
R
ITA
US
A
ES
P
PO
L
FIN
SW
E
HU
N
IRL
FR
A
SV
K
TU
R
GR
C
CZ
E
Share of exporting SMEs, % of total enterprises, 2015
Barriers to entrepreneurship are high
28
Index scale of 0-6 from least to most restrictive, 2013
Source: OECD, Product Market Regulation Database.
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
Barriers to entrepreneurship - overall
Communication and simplification of rules and procedures
Admin. burdens for corporations
Admin. burdens for sole proprietor firms
Barriers in services sector
Spain
OECD
Investment in knowledge-based capital is low
29
Investment in knowledge-based capital% of business sector’s gross value added, 2015
Source: OECD (2017), Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2017: The digital transformation.
0
10
20
30
GRC SVK ITA ESP NOR DEU PRT GBR AUT HUN DNK FIN NLD FRA USA SWE IRL
Other KBC assets including organisational capital and training
KBC assets in National Accounts including software and R&D
Spending on R&D is low
30
% of GDP2016 or latest
Source: OECD (2018), OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators (database).
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
CH
LLV
AM
EX
SV
KT
UR
GR
CP
OL
IRL
ES
PH
UN
LUX
PR
TN
ZL
ES
TIT
AC
AN
CZ
EG
BR
AU
SS
VN
NLD
NO
RIS
LF
RA
OE
CD
BE
LU
SA
FIN
DN
KD
EU
AU
TJP
NS
WE
CH
EK
OR
ISR
Other sectors Business sector
Spanish firms lag in their use of key digital
technologies
31
Source: OECD (2017), OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2017.
Share of enterprises using cloud computing services2016
0
20
40
60
FIN
SW
E
JPN
ISL
DN
K
NO
R
IRL
GB
R
NLD
CA
N
BE
L
AU
S
OE
CD
ITA
LUX
ES
P
CZ
E
PR
T
SV
K
FR
A
AU
T
DE
U
KO
R
HU
N
GR
C
LVA
PO
L
Recommendations for boosting productivity and
internationalisation
Boosting competition and reducing regulatory differences:
1. Eliminate the existing regulations that depend on the size of firms, as needed.
2. Regions should include the principle of national effectiveness of the Market Unity Law in their legislation.
3. Assess the compliance of new legislation at all levels of government with the principles of the Market Unity Law.
Enhancing innovation:
4. Give the recently activated R&D Public Policy Network a strong mandate to further increase coordination of regional and national innovation policies.
5. Strengthen ex-post evaluation framework of innovation support and consider increasing performance based funding.
32
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Disclaimers:
The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without
prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers
and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
