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2016 Results and 2017 Outlookfilecache.investorroom.com/mr5ir_epenergy/201/download/4Q...¹ Includes...

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2016 Results and 2017 Outlook March 2, 2017
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Page 1: 2016 Results and 2017 Outlookfilecache.investorroom.com/mr5ir_epenergy/201/download/4Q...¹ Includes 2017 WTI three way collars of 8.8 MMBbls and 2018 WTI three way collars of 3.3

2016 Results and 2017 Outlook

March 2, 2017

Page 2: 2016 Results and 2017 Outlookfilecache.investorroom.com/mr5ir_epenergy/201/download/4Q...¹ Includes 2017 WTI three way collars of 8.8 MMBbls and 2018 WTI three way collars of 3.3

2

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements and projections of EP Energy. EP Energy has made every reasonable effort to ensure that the information and assumptions on which these statements and projections are based are current, reasonable, and complete. However, a variety of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the projections, anticipated results or other expectations expressed, including, without limitation, the volatility of, and sustained low oil, natural gas, and NGL prices; the supply and demand for oil, natural gas and NGLs; changes in commodity prices and basis differentials for oil and natural gas; EP Energy’s ability to meet production volume targets; the uncertainty of estimating proved reserves and unproved resources; the future level of service and capital costs; the availability and cost of financing to fund future exploration and production operations; the success of drilling programs with regard to proved undeveloped reserves and unproved resources; EP Energy’s ability to comply with the covenants in various financing documents; EP Energy’s ability to obtain necessary governmental approvals for proposed E&P projects and to successfully construct and operate such projects; actions by the credit rating agencies; credit and performance risks of EP Energy’s lenders, trading counterparties, customers, vendors, suppliers, and third party operators; general economic and weather conditions in geographic regions or markets served by EP Energy, or where operations of EP Energy are located, including the risk of a global recession and negative impact on oil and natural gas demand; the uncertainties associated with governmental regulation, including any potential changes in federal and state tax laws and regulation; competition; and other factors described in EP Energy’s Securities and Exchange Commission filings. While EP Energy makes these statements and projections in good faith, neither EP Energy nor its management can guarantee that anticipated future results will be achieved. Reference must be made to those filings for additional important factors that may affect actual results. EP Energy assumes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements made herein or any other forward-looking statements made by EP Energy, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. This presentation presents certain production and reserves-related information on an "equivalency" basis. Equivalent volumes are computed with natural gas converted to barrels at a ratio of six Mcf to one Bbl. These conversions are based on energy equivalency conversion methods primarily applicable at the burner tip and do not represent value equivalencies at the wellhead. Although these conversion factors are industry accepted norms, they are not reflective of price or market value differentials between product types. This presentation refers to certain non-GAAP financial measures such as ”Adjusted EPS”, “Adjusted Cash Operating Costs”, “Adjusted General and Administrative Expenses” and “Adjusted EBITDAX”. Definitions of these measures and reconciliation between U.S GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures are included in the Fourth Quarter 2016 Financial and Operational Reporting Package at epenergy.com. In addition, this presentation refers to the non-GAAP measure PV-10. Presentation of and reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP financial measure to PV-10 is included in the Appendix to this presentation.

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3

Solid Execution

Operational Success

Financial Results

Recent Achievements

$255MM of Adjusted EBITDAX in 4Q’16

Adjusted cash operating costs down 7% from 4Q’151

$0.12 Adjusted EPS in 4Q’16

$1.1 billion of liquidity at YE’16

Generated 4Q’16 sequential production growth

Improved well returns and asset value in all programs

Lowered cash operating costs

Returned Wolfcamp to growth

Increased financial flexibility - Nov’16 & Feb’17 refinancings

Increased Wolfcamp type curve EUR

Wolfcamp drilling JV and expanded development

Note: See the Fourth Quarter 2016 Financial and Operational Reporting Package, available at epenergy.com, for the Company’s non-GAAP reconciliations and definitions. ¹ Excludes the impact of the sale of the Haynesville Shale asset which closed on May 3, 2016

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4

2016 Guidance 2016 Results Total production (MBoe/d) 85.5 – 87.5 87.6

Oil production (MBbls/d)

46 – 47

46.6

Capital program ($MM) ~$495 $488

Wells completed ~95 98

Adjusted cash operating costs ($/Boe) $13.80 – $14.10 $13.77

Delivered on 2016 Expectations

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5

Improved Financial Profile

Maturity Profile ($MM) As of 12/31/15

$4.9 billion

Maturity Profile ($MM) As of 2/6/171

$3.9 billion

1 Pro forma as of 12/31/16 to include February 2017 notes offering.

Reduced total debt by ~$1billion since YE’15

Significantly extended maturities

Retired or extended $2 billion of debt maturing before 2020

Multiple options to address 2020 maturity

~$1.1 billion of liquidity at YE’16

$1,222

$497

$2,000

$350

$800

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

$278 $21

$500

$1,000 $1,326

$250 $551

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

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6

Reserves and Inventory

1 The adjustments include 34MMBoe for the sale of Haynesville, 98MMBoe for the 5-year SEC development rule, and 18MMBoe for prices. 2 Based on proved reserve amounts as of December 31, 2016 run at NYMEX strip prices as of February 17, 2017. PV-10 also includes adjustments to align with the collateral valuation methodologies used for the RBL Facility borrowing base including PUDs that were previously booked and lost due to the 5-year SEC rule, expected benefit from the Wolfcamp JV, current capital and operating costs and the value of future hedge settlements. 3 Based on locations with break-even prices below $40 per barrel (WTI)

Deep high-quality asset inventory

Proved oil and gas reserves

432 MMBoe in proved reserves

Down ~20% from 2015, driven by Haynesville sale, impact of the SEC’s five-year development rule and lower prices

Up 7% from 2015, adjusted for impacts from Haynesville sale, impact of the SEC’s five-year development rule and lower prices1

~64 MMBoe of reserve additions

$3.4 billion2 of PV–10 at current strip

Drilling inventory

~5,200 drilling locations

>2,900 in Wolfcamp

>80% premier locations3

~30 years drilling inventory at 2017 activity levels

Page 7: 2016 Results and 2017 Outlookfilecache.investorroom.com/mr5ir_epenergy/201/download/4Q...¹ Includes 2017 WTI three way collars of 8.8 MMBbls and 2018 WTI three way collars of 3.3

7

4Q’16 Operations Summary

Program Completed

Wells

Equivalent Production (MBoe/d)

Oil (MBbls/d)

NGLs (MBbls/d)

Natural Gas

(MMcf/d)

Eagle Ford 5 37.7 22.2 8.3 43

Wolfcamp 21 27.4 11.4 7.7 50

Altamont 4 17.4 12.1 - 32

Total Company 30 82.5 45.7 16.0 125

Eagle Ford $25

Wolfcamp $72

Altamont $19

4Q’16 Total Capital $116MM

($MM)

4Q’16 sequential production growth for all products

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8

Efficient Cost Structure

Note: Best 2016 well results reflect wells that are representative of type wells 1 Includes drilling, completing and well site facilities ² Excludes the impact of the sale of the Haynesville Shale asset which closed on May 3, 2016

Eagl

e Fo

rd

Alta

mon

t W

olfc

amp

$7.2 $5.8

$4.2 $3.7

FY'14 FY'15 FY'16 Best 2H'16Well

Gross Well Cost1 ($MM)

$5.2

$4.1 $4.1 $3.3

FY'14 FY'15 FY'16 Best 2H'16Well

$6.2 $5.3 $4.6

$3.8

FY'14 FY'15 FY'16 Best 2H'16Well

$32 $29

$28 $33

$45 $42

$14 $7

4Q'15 4Q'16

Transport & Commodity Purchases Adj. Net G&A LOE Taxes Other Than Income

$119

Adjusted Cash Operating Costs, Excluding Haynesville2 ($MM)

$111

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9

Leading Hedge Program

Hedge Summary 2017 2018

Oil volumes (MMBbls)¹ 12.8 3.3 Average floor price ($/Bbl) $ 61.66 $ 60.00

Natural Gas volumes (TBtu) 32.0 11.0 Average floor price ($/MMBtu) $ 3.28 $ 3.11

Note: Hedge positions are as of February 27, 2017 (Contract months: January 2017 – Forward). For further details on the Company’s derivative program, see EP Energy Corporation’s Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016 ¹ Includes 2017 WTI three way collars of 8.8 MMBbls and 2018 WTI three way collars of 3.3 MMBbls ² Percent hedged based on midpoint of 2017 guidance

2017:

Oil: ~75%² estimated oil floored at $61.66 (retain additional upside)

Gas: ~76%² estimated natural gas swapped at $3.28

2018:

Oil: ~19%² estimated oil floored at $60.00 (retain additional upside)

Gas: ~26%² estimated natural gas swapped at $3.11

$639MM realized from settlements of financial derivatives in 2016

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10

1 Includes 20 – 25 percent non-drill capital 2 Includes completions which are within the DrillCo joint venture with 40 percent of total well cost to EP Energy. 3 See the Fourth Quarter 2016 Financial and Operational Reporting Package, available at epenergy.com, for the Company’s non-GAAP reconciliations and definitions.

2017 Oil production (MBbls/d) 45 – 49 Total production (MBoe/d) 75 – 82

Oil & gas capital ($MM)1

Wolfcamp $245 – 325 Eagle Ford 260 – 270 Altamont 125 – 135 Total capital program ($MM) $630 – $730

Gross well completions Wolfcamp2 90 – 105 Eagle Ford ~60 Altamont ~25 Total 175 - 190

Lease operating expense ($/Boe) $5.85 – $6.35 Adjusted general and administration expenses ($/Boe)3 $3.15 – $3.40 Transportation and commodity purchases ($/Boe) $3.90 – $4.50 Taxes, other than income ($/Boe) $2.70 – $2.85

DD&A ($/Boe) $16 – $17

Oil production growth from 2H’16

Includes two Wolfcamp rigs FY’17 and a third rig mid-year

Expect to maintain Eagle Ford and Altamont production at 2H’16 levels

Expect 40% CAGR oil volume growth in the Wolfcamp (‘16 – ‘18)

2017 Outlook

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11

Asset Portfolio Delivers Results

Wolfcamp

Oil production growth – volumes up 37% from 4Q’15

Improved well performance, upgraded type curve

One drilling rig in 2016 and completed 44 wells

Eagle Ford

Increased efficiencies in high return program

Generated excess cash flow

One drilling rig in 2016 and completed 39 wells

Altamont

Strong performance from recompletion program

Improved returns due to drilling JV and better realized oil pricing

One JV drilling rig in 2016 and completed 15 wells

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12

Wolfcamp: Recent Success

1 Break-even oil price (WTI) required to generate a 10 percent pre-tax IRR and $3.00 Henry Hub (HH), before impact of joint venture 2 In addition the company’s drilling inventory includes 255 drilling locations with 4,500’ laterals 3 Before impact of joint venture

New Type Curves

Gross EUR (MBoe) 750 550 Average lateral length (feet) 8,500 8,500 Gross well costs ($MM) $4.5 $4.4 Break-even pricing ($/Bbl)1 $25.75 $38.00 Gross drilling locations2 1,096 1,586 Assuming $55 (WTI)/$3.00 (HH)

Pre-tax IRR3 57% 22% Pre-Tax NPV ($MM) $4.9 $1.5 Assuming $65 (WTI)/$3.50 (HH)

Pre-Tax IRR3 72% 29% Pre-Tax NPV ($MM) $5.9 $2.2

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1 45 89 133 177 221 265 309 353 397 441 485 529 573 617 661 705 749

Cum

ulat

ive

Oil

Prod

uctio

n, B

bl

600 MBOE TC 750 MBOE TC Current Wells (41 wells)

Days Previous 600 MBOE TC

Improved well performance Increased returns Higher NPV per well

Reduced capital and operating costs University Lands (UL) sliding scale

royalty agreement Increased activities Production growth 150-well drilling joint venture

8.3

7.0 6.8

9.3

11.4

4Q'15 1Q'16 2Q'16 3Q'16 4Q'16

Oil Production (MBbls/d)

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13

EPE Wolfcamp JV Key Terms

EPE Wolfcamp Acreage

150 well program (two 75 well tranches)

First wells online in Jan‘17

Wellbore only interest

~9,000’ laterals

Investor: Wolfcamp DrillCo

Funds ~$450MM for 60% of D&C cost

Earns 50% Working Interest (WI) in completed interval

WI reverts to 15% after investor achieves a 12% IRR

EP Energy

Operates all wells

Benefits from ~$75MM carry

Primary objectives:

Increases returns

Accelerates activities

Illuminates acreage value

Wolfcamp: JV Key Terms

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14

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

$45.00 $50.00 $55.00 $60.00

Wolfcamp - Including Type Curve Update and DrillCo JV

Wolfcamp - Type Curve Update Only

Wolfcamp - Type Curve 600 Mboe

Wolfcamp: JV Increases Program Value

1 Assumes flat oil price of $55/Bbl (WTI).

Enhances program economics (single well IRRs from 57% to 80%)(1)

Increases near term cash flow and production ($75MM total carry)

Further illuminates acreage value of approximately $20,000 per acre

Accelerates development in a balance sheet friendly manner

Expands operations in Reagan and Crockett counties

Includes only ~5% of existing inventory in Wolfcamp

EPE – Improved Returns on Capital

BTAX

IRR

NYMEX WTI

Page 15: 2016 Results and 2017 Outlookfilecache.investorroom.com/mr5ir_epenergy/201/download/4Q...¹ Includes 2017 WTI three way collars of 8.8 MMBbls and 2018 WTI three way collars of 3.3

2016 Results and 2017 Outlook

March 2, 2017

Page 16: 2016 Results and 2017 Outlookfilecache.investorroom.com/mr5ir_epenergy/201/download/4Q...¹ Includes 2017 WTI three way collars of 8.8 MMBbls and 2018 WTI three way collars of 3.3

16

Appendix

Page 17: 2016 Results and 2017 Outlookfilecache.investorroom.com/mr5ir_epenergy/201/download/4Q...¹ Includes 2017 WTI three way collars of 8.8 MMBbls and 2018 WTI three way collars of 3.3

17

2016 Completed Wells By Quarter

Program 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY

Eagle Ford 16 8 10 5 39

Wolfcamp 5 5 13 21 44

Altamont 2 2 7 4 15

Total Company 23 15 30 30 98

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18

Updated Type Well Economics

Wolfcamp Eagle Ford Altamont

Average lateral length 8,500 8,500 5,700 N/A

Well spacing (acres) 150 150 40 – 60 80 -160

Distance between wells (feet) 770 770 330 – 500

IP 30 (Boe/d) 722 639 1,068 408

IP 30 (Bo/d) 534 475 772 335

Gross EUR (MBoe) 750 550 505 500

% Liquids 80% 72% 78% 75%

Gross well costs ($MM) $4.5 $4.4 $4.0 $4.2

Break-even pricing ($/Bbl)1 $25.75 $38.00 $34.75 $35.00

Average WI % 100% 97% 85% 70%

Average NRI2 75% 73% 63% 59%

Gross drilling locations 1,096 1,586 650 918

Assuming $55 (WTI) / $3.00 (HH)

Pre-Tax IRR 57% 22% 58% 30%

Pre-tax NPV ($MM) 4.9 1.5 $2.3 $2.0

Assuming $65 (WTI) / $3.50 (HH)

Pre-Tax IRR 72% 29% 99% 44%

Pre-tax NPV ($MM) 5.9 2.2 $3.6 $3.1

1 Break-even oil price (WTI) required to generate a 10 percent pre-tax IRR using latest well costs and $3.00 per MMBtu (HH). 2 Wolfcamp NRI does not include royalty relief according to sliding scale agreement; whereas economics do include royalty relief.

Drilling locations with <$40/Bbl break-even prices

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19

`` As of PV-10 of Oil, Gas and NGL Reserves- Dec. 31, 2016 $3,316

Less: Assumption differences1 2,264

PV-10 of Oil, Gas and NGL Reserves - Dec. 31, 2016 at SEC prices2 $1,052

Less: Income taxes, discounted at 10% 25

Standardized measure of discounted future net cash flows at Dec. 31, 2016 $1,027

YE 2016 PV-10 and PV-10 Reconciliation

1Assumption difference relate to those adjustments made to the SEC proved reserves as of December 31, 2016 as described above. 2The first day 12-month average price used to estimate our proved reserves at December 31, 2016 was $42.75 per barrel of oil (WTI) and $2.48 per MMBtu for natural gas (HH).

12/31/16 PV-10 ($MM)

Proved Developed $2,249 Proved Undeveloped 1,067 PV-10 of Oil, Gas and NGL Reserves $3,316 PV-10 of Hedge Settlements 102 PV-10 of Oil and Gas Reserves plus MTM of Hedges $3,418

In this presentation, we calculate the PV-10 of oil and gas reserves. The PV-10 of oil and gas reserves is defined as the value of our proved reserve amounts at December 31, 2016, calculated using NYMEX strip prices as of February 17, 2017, plus adjustments for PUDs that were previously booked and lost due to the 5-year SEC rule, the expected benefit from the Wolfcamp joint venture and other contractual arrangements, current capital and operating costs and the value of future hedge settlements, also valued at NYMEX strip prices at February 17, 2017, all then discounted using a 10 percent discount rate. Our calculation of PV-10 is consistent with the collateral valuation methodology we use for determining our borrowing base under the RBL Facility. The PV-10 is derived from the standardized measure of discounted future net cash flows of our oil and natural gas properties, which is the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure. We believe that the presentation of PV-10 is useful to investors because it presents (i) the relative monetary significance of our oil and natural gas properties using current prices and information, regardless of tax structure and (ii) the relative value of our reserves to other companies. The PV-10 and the standardized measure of discounted future net cash flows do not purport to present the fair value of our oil, natural gas and NGLs reserves, nor should they be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the comparable GAAP measure. Additionally, this measure may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies. The following tables provide a reconciliation of PV-10 to the standardized measure of discounted future net cash flows (in millions):


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