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2016 sep 21 Alan mc intosh

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They keep topping up the punch bowl! Alan McIntosh Chief Investment Strategist 20-22 nd September 2016 Source: hedgeye.com, 20/01/2015
Transcript
Page 1: 2016 sep 21   Alan mc intosh

They keep topping

up the punch bowl!

Alan McIntosh

Chief Investment Strategist

20-22nd September 2016

Source: hedgeye.com, 20/01/2015

Page 2: 2016 sep 21   Alan mc intosh

Where in the world?

2

Source: Citi Global Economic Outlook & Strategy, 24/08/2016

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Are we getting older and lazier?

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Source: Citi Research, United Nations, US Bureau of Economic Growth, Japan CAO, Eurostat, UK National Statistics 31 August 2016

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Wages and prices remain subdued

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What are central banks doing?

• Not much - yet

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What are governments doing?

• US raising interest rates

• Eurozone cutting interest rates / more QE

• UK cutting interest rates / more QE

• Japan cutting interest rates / more QE

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Eurozone interest rates – all the way to negative

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Inflation remains well below target

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And growth is modest

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Free money for all!!

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Source: Google images

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US – Will the fed raise interest rates this year?

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Employment remains strong

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But inflation has crept up

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Stocks are riding high

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But climbing a wall of worry?

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Source: truthdig.com 30/11/2015

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Brexit means Brexit – whatever that means...

• Article 50 likely to be invoked in 2017

• Followed by two years of negotiations

• Meanwhile

– More monetary easing

• Interest rate cut

• Quantitative easing

– Fiscal easing

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The pound has fallen sharply

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The FTSE 100 – up in pounds, down in euros

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What about valuations? SARA...

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...meet TINA! Dividend yield hugely supportive

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All that glitters...

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Disclaimer

This presentation has been prepared only for the recipient and date shown on the front page. It is not

intended for any other persons and should not be relied upon by other persons.

This presentation has been prepared for information purposes only and is not a solicitation or an

offer to buy or sell any security. It does not purport to be a complete description of our investment

policy, markets or any securities referred to in the material. The information on which the

presentation is based is deemed to be reliable, but we have not independently verified such

information and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. All expressions of opinion are

subject to change without notice. Any reference to the Quilter Cheviot model portfolio, which is used

for internal purposes, is purely illustrative and should not be relied upon. The figures quoted do not

include charges.

The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up and that past

performance is no guarantee of future return. You may not recover what you invest. Changes in

exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of foreign currency

denominated securities. Levels and bases of taxation can change. Investments or investment

services referred to may not be suitable for all recipients.

Quilter Cheviot Limited is registered in England with number 01923571, registered office at One

Kingsway, London, WC2B 6AN. Quilter Cheviot Limited is a member of the London Stock Exchange

and authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority.

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