Date post: | 20-Jan-2017 |
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Business |
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They keep topping
up the punch bowl!
Alan McIntosh
Chief Investment Strategist
20-22nd September 2016
Source: hedgeye.com, 20/01/2015
Where in the world?
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Source: Citi Global Economic Outlook & Strategy, 24/08/2016
Are we getting older and lazier?
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Source: Citi Research, United Nations, US Bureau of Economic Growth, Japan CAO, Eurostat, UK National Statistics 31 August 2016
Wages and prices remain subdued
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What are central banks doing?
• Not much - yet
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What are governments doing?
• US raising interest rates
• Eurozone cutting interest rates / more QE
• UK cutting interest rates / more QE
• Japan cutting interest rates / more QE
Eurozone interest rates – all the way to negative
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Inflation remains well below target
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And growth is modest
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Free money for all!!
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Source: Google images
US – Will the fed raise interest rates this year?
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Employment remains strong
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But inflation has crept up
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Stocks are riding high
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But climbing a wall of worry?
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Source: truthdig.com 30/11/2015
Brexit means Brexit – whatever that means...
• Article 50 likely to be invoked in 2017
• Followed by two years of negotiations
• Meanwhile
– More monetary easing
• Interest rate cut
• Quantitative easing
– Fiscal easing
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The pound has fallen sharply
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The FTSE 100 – up in pounds, down in euros
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What about valuations? SARA...
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...meet TINA! Dividend yield hugely supportive
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All that glitters...
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Disclaimer
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policy, markets or any securities referred to in the material. The information on which the
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information and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. All expressions of opinion are
subject to change without notice. Any reference to the Quilter Cheviot model portfolio, which is used
for internal purposes, is purely illustrative and should not be relied upon. The figures quoted do not
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The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up and that past
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