2017 AOP Panel Meeting

Gulf of Maine Atlantic cod Michael Palmer NEFSC

Woods Hole, MA July 24, 2017

2015 update assessment • Stock status

• Issues and uncertainties • Two accepted models (M=0.2 and M-ramp), overall uncertainty in current levels

of natural mortality • M=0.2 model exhibits major retro pattern, M-ramp has minor retro pattern • Recent low recruitment compromises rebuilding potential

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2

Assessment Proxy reference points M=0.2 M-rampFfull, 2014 0.956 (0.664 - 1.387) 0.932 (0.654 - 1.304)FMSY 0.185 0.187Ffull, 2014/FMSY 5.11 4.98Overfishing Yes YesSSB2014 (mt) 2,225 (1,713 - 2,892) 2,536 (1,942 - 3,298)SSBMSY (mt) 40,187 (27,551 - 58,228) 59,045 (44,976 - 76,525)SSB2014/SSBMSY 0.06 0.04Overfished Yes YesMSY (mt) 6,797 (4,608 - 9,990) 10,043 (7,560 - 13,130)Median age1 recruitment (000s) 4,406 (1,458 - 14,450) 8,965 (2,489 - 15,908)

2015 update

2017 update: anticipated challenges • Consideration of retrospective adjustment for M=0.2

model (moderate)

• Natural mortality assumptions for short-term projections (moderate)

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3

2017 update: modelling approach • Update the SAW/SARC 55 ASAP models through 2016 • Update F40% FMSY proxies

• Use recent 3-year average weights • Update SSBMSY proxies

• 2012-2016 geometric mean for 2015 t+1 recruitment • 1982-2012 median for 2018 and beyond (model w/

recruitment declining to zero below hinge point) • Update short-term projections (2018-2020)

• 3 year example projections at FMSY proxy

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4

2017 update: backup in the event of model failure • Application of recent survey trends to adjust recent

catch • i.e., Georges Bank cod approach

• Average index from NEFSC spring and fall surveys • LOESS smooth (span=0.3) of the 1982-2016 series • Fit log linear regression to last 3 years (2014-2016) • Compute proportional change (i.e., regression slope) • Apply to average catch from 2014-2016 to estimate a

proxy 2018 OFL

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 5

The end [Additional info as needed]

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6

Georges Bank Atlantic Cod

• 2015 Operational Update – ASAP model not accepted – Empirical Approach used

• Plan B smooth

2017 Operational Update

• Update survey data and add recent years – NMFS spring and fall surveys

• Add recent catch • Apply Plan B smooth

– Based on EGB cod, expect increase in catch advice

2017 AOP Panel Meeting

Gulf of Maine haddock Michael Palmer NEFSC

Woods Hole, MA July 24, 2017

2015 Operational Assessment • Stock status

• Issues and uncertainties • Generally good model diagnostics • Size of the 2012 and 2013 year classes

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2

Assessment Proxy reference points BaseFfull, 2014 0.257 (0.164 - 0.373)FMSY 0.468 (0.391 - 0.547)Ffull, 2014/FMSY 0.55Overfishing NoSSB2014 (mt) 10,325 (7,229 - 14,453)SSBMSY (mt) 4,623 (2,036 - 9,283)SSB2014/SSBMSY 2.23Overfished NoMSY (mt) 1,083 (489 - 2,148)Median age1 recruitment (000s) 1,335 (253 - 8,198)

2015 update

2017 update: anticipated challenges

• Evaluating uncertainty in recent year class strength • Anticipated to be a minor issue in the 2017 update

• Survey data do not indicate strong terminal year classes • Additional information to inform the 2012 and 2013 year classes

• Incorporation of revised recreational post-release mortality estimates (Mandelman et al.

2016 and 2017) • Current approach assumes 50% post-release mortality • Mandelman et al. work provides season and size-class specific mortality estimates • Application of the Mandelman et al. work has several challenges (described in Palmer

2017) • Only have lengths sampled directly from the recreational fishery from 2004 onward • Low length sample size when stratified by semester (~n=3)

• Unlikely to have perceptible impact on assessment results • Impact on estimates of total fishery removals from 2004 to 2016:

• Biomass: -1.2% - 3.3% • Numbers: -0.3% to 6.0%

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3

2017 update: modelling approach • Update the SAW/SARC 59 ASAP model • Update F40% FMSY proxy

• Use recent 5-year average weights • Update SSBMSY proxy

• 1977-2016 geometric mean for 2017 t+1 recruitment • 1977-2014 median for 2016 and beyond

• Update short-term projections (2018-2020) • 3 year example projections at FMSY proxy

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4

2017 update: backup in the event of model failure • Application of recent survey trends to adjust recent

catch • i.e., Georges Bank cod approach

• Average index from NEFSC spring and fall surveys • LOESS smooth (span=0.3) of the 1977-2016 series • Fit log linear regression to last 3 years (2014-2016) • Compute proportional change (i.e., regression slope) • Apply to average catch from 2014-2016 to estimate a

proxy 2018 OFL

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 5

The end [Additional info as needed]

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6

Georges Bank Haddock

Liz Brooks NEFSC

July 24, 2017

Update Existing VPA (Ages 1-9+)

• Add US landings and discards (2015-2016) • Add Canadian landings and discards (2015-2016) • Add 2015-2016 NEFSC Fall BTS (ages 0-5) • Add 2016-2017 NEFSC Spring BTS and DFO Spring

(ages 1-8)

Update Stock Status • 2015 Stock Status (ρ-adjusted):

– Not overfished (SSB2014/SSBMSY= 1.38) – No overfishing (F2014/FMSY=0.62)

• Current Reference Points (based on F40%) • FMSY = 0.39; SSBMSY = 108,300 mt; MSY = 24,900 mt • Will update with recent 5 yr. average biological information

Projections

• Short-term projections at FMSY and 0.75*FMSY • Projection inputs: same assumptions as at GARM-III,

2012 and 2015 Updates: – Recent 5 yr. average for WAA, maturity AA, selectivity;

examine WAA trend for 2013 yclass – Sample cdf of recruitments, exclude 1963, 2003, 2010, 2013

and 2 most recent point estimates (2016, 2017) – Sensitivity projection will include the large year classes, but

still exclude most recent 2 point estimates – Perform bootstrap of VPA to obtain 1000 vectors of NAA in

year T+1 (2017) to initiate projections

Fall Back Plan

• Retrospective pattern in last assessment; if retrospective pattern continues, examine diagnostic and “rho adjust” if appropriate

• If VPA diagnostics not acceptable, use recent average catch

Proposed Update for Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder

Lead Scientist: Paul Nitschke Last Assessed: 2015 Operational Assessments

30+ Survey Area Swept

NEFSC

July 24, 2017

Current Status • Overfished status is Unknown • Overfishing not occurring

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2

90% confidence intervals are shown for biomass and exploitation rate

Assessment Plan • Update trends in the NEFSC, MDMF, and MENH

survey indices. • Estimate 2015 and 2016 30+ cm survey area swept

biomass for non-overlapping strata from the NEFSC, MDMF, and MENH surveys.

• Estimate 2015 and 2016 catch (commercial & recreational landing, recreational discards, large mesh trawl discards and gillnet discards).

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3

Assessment Plan 30+ cm Survey Area Swept Biomass Estimate. Used in SARC 52 (2011) and in the 2014 & 2015 Operational Updates.

• Exploitable Biomass = 30+ cm biomass index per tow x total survey area / tow footprint x q

• Exploitation rate = catch / 30+ cm biomass • Overfishing BRPs are based on F40% from length

based YPR with 30 cm knife edge selectivity (Not planning on updating F40% since overall von Bertalanffy growth is not expected to change much).

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4

Assessment Plan • Estimate Fall 2015-2016 and

Spring 2016-2017 30+ cm biomass from the NEFSC, MDMF and MENH surveys.

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 5

The End?

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6

Backup Plan C? There is no real plan C; unless a Q assumption change or multiyear 30+ area swept biomass (average fall and spring year t+1) average is considered a plan C?

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7

Cape Cod-Gulf of Maine Yellowtail Flounder

Larry Alade 2017 Groundfish Operational Assessment Plan

Population Dynamics Branch Northeast Fisheries Science Center

July 24, 2017

Previous 2015 Operational Assessment

• Last assessed in the 2015 Groundfish Operational Assessment

• VPA Model (1985-2014); Ages 1-6+ – VPA tuned to six age-specific Surveys:

• NEFSC and Mass DMF (Spring Ages 1-6+; Fall Ages1-5) • ME/NH surveys (Spring 2-5; Fall 2-4)

– Age and time invariant M = 0.2 – Commercial Catch (landings plus discards)

• Stock Status – Overfished and overfishing occurring

2017 OA Base Plan: Update Existing VPA Model

• Update Fishery dependent data – Comm. landings and discards = CAA (2015-2016)

• Update NEFSC, Mass DMF, and ME/NH surveys and age comp: Spring (2016-2017) and Fall (2015- 2016) – NEFSC Surveys - Bigelow length based calibration

factors available from peer review in TRAC 2010 • Biological: No changes to M, maturity (age

specific and time invariant), or timing of spawning.

Biological reference points and Stock Status

• 2017 Operational Assessment Update – Update Stock Status with 2016 values:

• Current Status: Overfished (SSB2014/SSBMSY= 0.16), Overfishing (F2014/FMSY=2.3)

– Update Biological Reference Points

• Fishing reference points (based on F40%) • Biomass reference points:

– Recruitment (1985-2014 + Hindcast back to 1977 per Rec. from GARM III)

– 5 yr mean WAA, maturity and selectivity (2012-2016) • Current reference points

– FMSY = 0.279; SSBMSY = 5,259 mt; MSY = 1,285 mt

Projections • Short-term projections (Median catch 2018-2020)

– Fstatus quo (F = F2016) – FMSY = F40% (YPR) – 75%FMSY

• CCGOM under rebuilding plan (End date = 2023) – Frebuild (Iterative approach for yrs 2018-2023)

• Projection inputs same assumptions as previous 2015 OA (Basis: GARM III): – Recent 5 yr. average for WAA, maturity AA, selectivity – Sample cdf of recruitments (including hindcast values) – Bootstrap VPA to obtain 1000 vectors of NAA in year T+1

(2017) to initiate projections

Previous 2015 Operational Assessment

• In the last 2015 Operational Assessment – Quality of model fit was somewhat consistent

with previous assessment (2012 update and 2015 OA)

– However retrospective pattern was stronger and retro adjustment was implemented

Plan B (Only If necessary)

• Empirical Assessment approach – Apply Catchability estimates from the twin trawl Study

to expand survey catch/tow to absolute biomass estimates.

• Bigelow estimates (Fall and Spring Survey) – Exploitation rate will applied to survey biomass

estimates to generate catch advice. • Catch Advice: Period for exploitation rate (undetermined) • GB Yellowtail, range of exploitation rates were mgt. catch

quota – Biomass reference points – Unknown

Larry Alade 2017 Groundfish Operational Assessment Plan

Population Dynamics Branch Northeast Fisheries Science Center

July 24, 2017

Southern New England-Mid Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder

Previous Assessment

• Last assessed: 2015 Groundfish Operational Assessment

• ASAP Model (1973-2014); Ages 1-6+ – ASAP tuned to three age-specific surveys and a larval

index: • NEFSC (Spring ages 1-6+ 1973-2015; Fall ages 1-6+ for years

1973-2014) • Larval abundance Index (Summer 1977-1987; 1995-2015)

– Time invariant, age-specific M – Commercial Catch (Landings plus discards) - CAA

• Discards: Apply 90% Discard Mortality (Barkley and Cadrin, 2012)

– Stock Status : Overfished and overfishing is occurring

2017 OA Base Plan: Update Existing ASAP model

• Update US landings and discards Incl. CAA (2015-2016) – Update fishery selectivity blocks as necessary

• Add NEFSC, Fall and Spring (2015-2016) and larval abundance index (2015-2016) – Bigelow length based calibration factors available from

peer review in TRAC 2010 • Biological:

– No changes to M – No changes to Maturity, or timing of spawning

Update Existing Biological Reference Points and Stock Status

• 2017 Operational Assessment Update

– Update Stock Status: • Current status: Overfished (SSB2014/SSBMSY= 0.26), and

Overfishing is occurring (F2014/FMSY= 4.69)

– Update Biological reference points: • Fishing Reference Points (based on F40%) • Biomass reference points:

– Two Stage cdf of recruitment series (1973-2015) – Recent 5 yr mean WAA, maturity and Selectivity (2012-2016)

• Current reference points: – FMSY = 0.35; SSBMSY = 1,959 mt; MSY = 541 mt

Projections • Short-term projections (median catch 2018-2020)

– FStatus quo (F = F2016) – FMSY = F40%

– 75%FMSY

• Projection inputs assumptions = SARC 54: – Recent 5 yr. average for WAA, maturity AA, selectivity

(2012-2016) – Two stage Sampling cdf of recruitments series (1973 -

2015) – ASAP MCMC simulations to obtain 1000 vectors of NAA in

year T+1 (2017) to initiate projections

Previous 2015 Operational Assessment

• Quality of model fit to input data was relatively consistent.

• However, emergence of strong retrospective pattern

• If model diagnostics continues to deteriorate with regards both precision and retrospective bias…..Then develop Plan B

Plan B (Only if necessary)

• Empirical Assessment approach – Apply Catchability estimates from the twin trawl Study

to expand survey catch/tow to absolute biomass estimates.

• Bigelow estimates (Fall and Spring Survey) – Exploitation rate will applied to survey biomass

estimates to generate catch advice. • Catch Advice: Period for exploitation rate (undetermined) • GB Yellowtail, range of exploitation rates were mgt. catch

quota – Biomass reference points – Unknown

Georges Bank Yellowtail Flounder

• 2015 Operational Update – Presented for information only – Empirical Approach used

• Survey expansion

2017 Operational Update

• Presented for information only • TRAC met July 11-14, 2017 • SSC to meet August 8 • Empirical approach used (survey expansion)

– Changed survey q (0.37 to 0.31) – Change survey tow area (door spread to wing

spread) – Still recommend decrease in catch due to

declining surveys