1
U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake.usgs.gov Earthquake Hazards Program U.S. Geological Survey http://earthquake.usgs.gov/ Douglas Given, US Geological Survey, ([email protected]) and the ShakeAlert Project Team Abstract The ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system will reduce injuries, deaths, and property damage by giving people and systems from seconds to minutes to take protective actions before the heaviest shaking arrives. Since 2006 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) along with university partners has been developing ShakeAlert in three West Coast states: California, Washington, and Oregon. ShakeAlert is built on the sensor networks of the USGS Advanced National Seismic System. A demonstration version of the system has sent hundreds of notifications to beta users in California since 2012, in some cases less than 4 seconds after an earthquake begins. In February 2016 the production prototype was rolled-out, which allows selected early adopters to develop pilot implementations that demonstrate the system’s value and pave the way for broader use. In April 2017 this capability was extended to Washington and Oregon. The system does not yet support public notifications, but the USGS has set a goal of limited public alerts by 2018 in areas with adequate sensor coverage. The system is only partially funded and there is much work to do before it can becoming fully operational. The system needs about 900 additional sensors and more reliable data communications. Earthquake detection and alert algorithms will continue to be improved and tested. USGS is also working with government and industry partners to speed up mass notifications using various technologies, including radio and cellular broadcast. Finally, USGS is coordinating the development of a campaign to educate the public about how to respond to earthquake early warning alerts. While significant progress is being made, the ShakeAlert system will require additional funding for both build-out and operations and further implementation by industry and users before full west Coast public alerting is achieved. Major System Components Conclusions Creating a functional EEW system requires partner-ships and coordination between government and private industry across may disciplines including science, computer systems development and management, telecommunications, and social science. Issues of legal authorities and liability must all be settled and stake-holders in all sectors must be engaged in the process of establishing the system’s behavior and developing public education and training. End users must be aware of the capabilities and limitations of the system to realize its maximum benefit. 2017 Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction Cancun, MX ShakeAlert Network and Data Centers Station Plan 711 of 1,675 = 43% complete (4/2017) International Alert Standards We urge the adoption of global standards for the distribution and display of EEW alerts including: - Use of CAP format alert messages (Common Alert Protocol) - Use of Extended 3GPP ETWS for cellular networks - Use of standard alert sounds and visual signals (e.g. NHK “chimes”) Coordinated Partnerships are Crucial Building and operating an effective EEW system requires the support and participation of government organizations, private sector companies, and the public. ShakeAlert: Implementing Public Earthquake Early Warning for the U.S. Incremental steps toward full operation Pilots – fault tolerant early adoptors Automated Actions – wider industrial use, transportation Limited people alerts - groups who can be trained Expanded people alerts in public venues (people with no advance training) Geographically limited public alerts (where network is dense, delivery is possible) Full public alerts! Via all available pathways Goals of incremental roll out: • Demonstrate value of alerts • Encourage innovation and commercialization • Pace uses with system capabilities Processing System Architecture Funding The ShakeAlert system is not yet fully funded. We estimate the system will cost $38M USD to complete and $16M/year to operate and maintain. The 2017 project funding level is $10.2M Alert Delivery – by all available means • Internet • Cellular (ETWS) • IP push notifications • “over the top” apps • Cellular Broadcast • Digital radio • Broadcast radio and TV • Satellite • IoT • Purpose build systems Alerts FM radio Earthquake Earthquake Alert Users Cell Broadcast 3GPP ETWS Challenges to EEW in the U.S. * Governance - Must agree on authorities & responsibilities * Resources - Must secure long-term funding - What will be the private sector contribution? * Regulations & bureaucracy - Must meet strict IT security requirements - Environmental regulations hinder building of stations and telecom infrastructure - Constraints on hiring and procurement * Coordination among - government entities - private sector stakeholders * Technical - Maximize speed, minimize errors - Physical limits alert times * Communication, Education & Training - Must develop effective public messages - Create realistic expectations * Alert deliver - Mass delivery technologies are slow - Speeding them up takes years USGS has the goal of limited public alerting by 2018.
