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2017.05.15 ILDP EconPresentation ABlack · $531 $718 $529 888 $303 $435 $271 $385 $775 $566 $389...

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Fundamentals of the U.S. Transportation Construction Market Alison Premo Black, PhD ARTBA Senior VP, Policy & Chief Economist ARTBA 2017 Industry Leaders Development Program © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.
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Page 1: 2017.05.15 ILDP EconPresentation ABlack · $531 $718 $529 888 $303 $435 $271 $385 $775 $566 $389 $263 $299 $306 $400 $672 656 $691 $521 003 $797 $704 $895 $804 778 738 078 105 368

Fundamentals of the U.S. Transportation

Construction MarketAlison Premo Black, PhDARTBA Senior VP, Policy

& Chief Economist

ARTBA 2017 Industry Leaders Development Program

© 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

Page 2: 2017.05.15 ILDP EconPresentation ABlack · $531 $718 $529 888 $303 $435 $271 $385 $775 $566 $389 $263 $299 $306 $400 $672 656 $691 $521 003 $797 $704 $895 $804 778 738 078 105 368

HIGHWAYS & BRIDGESModal Profile

Page 3: 2017.05.15 ILDP EconPresentation ABlack · $531 $718 $529 888 $303 $435 $271 $385 $775 $566 $389 $263 $299 $306 $400 $672 656 $691 $521 003 $797 $704 $895 $804 778 738 078 105 368

User Tax Revenues &

Tolls38%

Road and Crossing Tolls

7%

Other Imposts and General

Funds11%

Bonds9%

Federal Payments

25%

Local Payments

3%

Misc.7%

State Government - Highway & Bridge Revenues

User Revenues &

Tolls5%

General Funds41%

Taxes & imposts

21%

Bonds7%

Federal & state

payments18%

Misc.8%

Local Government - Highway & Bridge Revenues

What are the major sources of highway and bridge spending?

Source: FHWA Highway Statistics 2015, Tables SF-2 and LGF-1. © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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Capital Outlay52%

Maintenance and Services

15%

Admin, Police and Safety

12%

Interest6%

Bond Retirement

5%

Grants In Aid10%

State Government – Highway & Bridge Spending

Capital outlays26%

Maintenance & traffic30%

Administration, Police & Safety

17%

Bond retirement &

interest24%

Payments to States

3%

Local Government – Highway & Bridge Spending

Source: FHWA Highway Statistics 2015, Tables SF-2 and LGF-2. © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

How are highway and bridge funds spent?

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Source: ARTBA analysis of FHWA Highway Statistics data, total ten year average 2005-2014 from tables SF-1 and SF-2. The percent is the ratio of federal aid reimbursements to the state and total state capital outlays and is indicative of the importance of the federal aid program to state capital spending for highways and bridges. Does not include local capital spending. Federal highway reimbursements are primarily used for capital outlays, including construction, right of way and engineering, but are also used for debt service for GARVEE bonds.

* States that have issued GARVEE bonds before 2014.

© 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

86%*

35%

50%

61%*

68%*

88%*

72%

56%

59%*

70%*

84%*

65%*

69%

45%

50%

59%*

38%

66%

58%

71%

51%

39%

41%

62%

42%*

67%

65%* 69%*

60%*

52%

44%

68%

48%*

68%*

37%

52%*

61%*

61%*

42%

HI81%

80%

VT80%

CT68%

RI98%*

DE45%*

NJ29%*

MD43%*

DC52%*

NH56%*

50 to 69% of state highway & bridge capital outlays

MA41%

50%

Over 69% of state highway & bridge capital outlays

29 to 49% of state highway & bridge capital outlays

Federal funds, on average, provide 51% of annual state DOT capital outlays for highway & bridge projects

Page 6: 2017.05.15 ILDP EconPresentation ABlack · $531 $718 $529 888 $303 $435 $271 $385 $775 $566 $389 $263 $299 $306 $400 $672 656 $691 $521 003 $797 $704 $895 $804 778 738 078 105 368

$531

$718

$529

$3,888

$303

$435

$271

$385

$775

$566

$389

$263

$299

$306

$400

$672

$3,656

$691

$521

$1,003

$797

$704

$895

$804

$1,778

$1,738

$1,078

$1,105

$1,368

$

$463

$548

$368

HI$179

$709

VT$215

CT$532

RI$232

DE$179

NJ

MD$637

DC$169

NH$175

$400-600 million

MA$643

$743

Less than $400 million $600 million- $1 billion

Average Annual FAST Act Funding by State (in millions)Over $1 billion

$2,007

$1,506$1,009

$196

$512

$1,420

$1,115

$1,058

Source: ARTBA analysis of FAST Act. Original data from FHWA. © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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FAST Act Highway Investment Impact

$46.4

$41.3$40.3

$42.0

$37

$38

$39

$40

$41

$42

$43

$44

$45

$46

$47

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Billi

ons o

f dol

lars

Nominal Obligations Adjusted for Project Costs Adjusted for Inflation

Source: ARTBA analysis of FAST Act. Inflation forecast from CBO's August 2015 report "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025.“© 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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AK

WA

OR

CA

ID

MT

WY

NV

AZ

CO

NM

ND

SD

NE

KS

OK

TX

MN

IA

MO

WI

IL

MI

IN

KY

TN

MS AL

OH

NY

PA

VA

NC

GA

FL

ME

WV

AR

UT

HIHI

SC

VT

CTRI

DENJ

MDDC

NH

MA

LA

Status of State Enabling Statutory Authority to use Public-Private Investment Partnerships

for Transportation Infrastructure Projects

Source: National Conference of State Legislatures, Public-Private Partnerships for Transportation: A Toolkit for Legislators http://www.ncsl.org/research/transportation/public-private-partnerships-for-transportation.aspx

Broad enabling legislationLimited or project-specific legislation

No legislation

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AK, 1

WA

OR

CA

ID

MT

WY

NV

AZ

CO, 3

NM

ND

SD

NE

KS

OK

TX, 4

MN

IA

MO

WI

IL, 1

MI

IN, 1

KY, 1

TN, 1

MS AL

OH, 1

NY, 1.5

PA, 1

VA, 5

NC, 1

GA

FL, 1

ME

WV

AR

UT

HIHI

SC

VT

CTRI

DENJ, .5

MD, 1DC

NH

MA

LA

Number of Surface Transportation Projects Supported Through Federal Private Activity Bonds (PABs) Since 2005

Source: Federal Highway Administration, includes PABs issued (for 17 projects) and PABs allocated but not yet issued (8 projects).https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ipd/finance/tools_programs/federal_debt_financing/private_activity_bonds/#qualified

Highway, plus Transit or Airport/Intermodal Projects

Highway Projects Only

No TIFIA Projects

Transit or Airport/Intermodal Projects Only

15 States24 Projects

Page 10: 2017.05.15 ILDP EconPresentation ABlack · $531 $718 $529 888 $303 $435 $271 $385 $775 $566 $389 $263 $299 $306 $400 $672 656 $691 $521 003 $797 $704 $895 $804 778 738 078 105 368

AK

WA, 3

OR

CA, 9

ID

MT

WY

NV

AZ

CO, 3

NM

ND

SD

NE

KS

OK

TX, 10

MN

IA

MO

WI

IL, 5

MI

IN, 1

KY, 1

TN

MS AL

OH, 1

NY, 1.5

PA

VA, 5

NC, 4

GA, 1

FL, 5

ME

WV

AR

UT

HIHI

SC

VT

CTRI, 1

DE, 1NJ, .5

MD, 2DC

NH, 1

MA

LA, 1

Number of Projects Supported Through the Federal “Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act” (TIFIA)

Since 1999

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, https://www.transportation.gov/tifia/projects-financed

Highway, plus Transit or Airport/Intermodal Projects

Highway Projects Only

No TIFIA Projects

Transit or Airport/Intermodal Projects Only

19 States56 Projects

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U.S. Highway & Street Pavement Construction Forecast

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

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2006

2007

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2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

(e)

2017

(f)

2018

(f)

2019

(f)

2020

(f)

2021

(f)

Billi

ons o

f 201

6$

Real Value of Pavement & Related Construction Work

Source: ARTBA Forecast Model. © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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U.S. Bridge & Tunnel Pavement Construction Forecast

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

(e)

2017

(f)

2018

(f)

2019

(f)

2020

(f)

2021

(f)

Billi

ons o

f 201

6$

Real Value of Bridge & Tunnel Construction Work

Source: ARTBA Forecast Model © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

Page 13: 2017.05.15 ILDP EconPresentation ABlack · $531 $718 $529 888 $303 $435 $271 $385 $775 $566 $389 $263 $299 $306 $400 $672 656 $691 $521 003 $797 $704 $895 $804 778 738 078 105 368

State & Local Government Highway Contract Awards

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

Texa

sCa

lifor

nia

Flor

ida

Geor

gia

Ohi

oN

orth

Car

olin

aPe

nnsy

lvan

iaVi

rgin

iaIll

inoi

sAr

izona

Min

neso

taM

ichi

gan

New

Yor

kSo

uth

Caro

lina

Iow

aW

iscon

sinN

evad

aCo

lora

doIn

dian

aAr

kans

asW

ashi

ngto

nM

ississ

ippi

Okl

ahom

aM

aryl

and

Alab

ama

Tenn

esse

eN

ew Je

rsey

Nor

th D

akot

aKe

ntuc

kyU

tah

Loui

siana

Miss

ouri

Mas

sach

uset

tsKa

nsas

Neb

rask

aO

rego

nN

ew H

amps

hire

New

Mex

ico

Alas

kaW

yom

ing

Sout

h Da

kota

Mon

tana

Mai

neHa

wai

iCo

nnec

ticut

Idah

oDe

law

are

Wes

t Virg

inia

Verm

ont

Rhod

e Is

land

Dist

rict o

f Col

umbi

a

Billi

ons o

f 201

7 $

April 2016 - March 2017 Previous 3 years averageSource: ARTBA analysis of Dodge Data Analytics data. Weighted with the ARTBA Price Index that takes into account material prices, wages and inflation. © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

Page 14: 2017.05.15 ILDP EconPresentation ABlack · $531 $718 $529 888 $303 $435 $271 $385 $775 $566 $389 $263 $299 $306 $400 $672 656 $691 $521 003 $797 $704 $895 $804 778 738 078 105 368

State & Local Government Bridge Contract Awards

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5Te

xas

Flor

ida

Penn

sylv

ania

Calif

orni

aN

ew Y

ork

Okl

ahom

aN

orth

Car

olin

aO

hio

Illin

ois

Geor

gia

Virg

inia

Mar

ylan

dM

ichi

gan

New

Jers

eyAr

kans

asIo

wa

Colo

rado

Wisc

onsin

Indi

ana

Miss

ouri

Mas

sach

uset

tsM

inne

sota

Miss

issip

piCo

nnec

ticut

Loui

siana

Neb

rask

aAl

abam

aAr

izona

Sout

h Ca

rolin

aTe

nnes

see

Kans

asKe

ntuc

kyN

evad

aW

ashi

ngto

nO

rego

nW

yom

ing

Alas

kaU

tah

Mai

neN

orth

Dak

ota

Sout

h Da

kota

Rhod

e Is

land

New

Mex

ico

Mon

tana

Idah

oVe

rmon

tHa

wai

iN

ew H

amps

hire

Dela

war

eW

est V

irgin

iaDi

stric

t of C

olum

bia

Billi

ons o

f 201

7 $

April 2016 - March 2017 Previous 3 years averageSource: ARTBA analysis of Dodge Data Analytics data. Weighted with the ARTBA Price Index that takes into account material prices, wages and inflation. © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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TRANSITModal Profile

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State and Local Transit Agency Revenue Sources

Fares23%

Federal18%

State21%

Local34%

Other4%

Source: National Transit Database 2015 data © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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State and Local Transit Agency Revenue Sources

Federal8%

State26%

Local30%

Directly Generated

4%

Fares32%

Federal42%

State14%

Local12%

Directly Generated

24%

Fares8%

Sources of Revenue for Operations

Source of Revenue for Capital Expenditures

Source: National Transit Database 2015 data © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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State and Local Transit Agency Expenditures

Operating Expenses

69%

Capital Expenditures

31%Vehicle

Operations35%

Vehicle Maintenance

13%Non-Vehicle Maintenance

8%

General Administration

13%

Rolling Stock8%

Facilities19%

Other Capital Expenditures

4%

Spending by Category Spending by Type of Service

Source: National Transit Database 2015 data © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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State and Local Transit Agency Capital Expenditures

$8.14 $8.53 $9.86 $9.93 $10.15 $9.47 $10.77 $10.44 $10.30 $11.75

$3.17 $3.40$4.46 $5.18 $4.43 $4.09

$3.78 $3.95 $4.46$4.85

$1.44 $1.64

$1.77 $1.73 $1.98$2.08

$2.28 $2.76 $2.63$2.65

$12.75 $13.57

$16.09 $16.83 $16.56 $15.72$16.92 $17.25 $17.51

$19.34

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Billi

ons

Facilities Rolling Stock Other

Source: National Transit Database © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior writtenpermission of ARTBA.

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Federal Investment in U.S. Transit Construction Market

• FAST Act provides funding for Federal Transit Administration (FTA) grants

• New Starts & Small Starts• Capital purchases like buses and facilities• Impact on urban and rural transit agencies

© 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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97%

79%

78%

30%

86%

75%

63%

75%

91%

44%

78%

90%

85%

N/A

91%

79%

81%

76%

86%

92%

96%

90%

85%

92%

94%

84%

93% 100%

79%

80%

63%

81%

69%

97%

59%

80%

82%

84%

87%

HI72%

96%

VT80%

CT99%

RIN/A

DE100%

NJ45%

MD89%

DCN/A

NH82%

50 to 80% of rural transit capital outlays

MA80%

100%

Over 80% of rural transit capital outlays

25 to 50% of rural transit capital outlays

Federal funds, on average, provide 82% of rural transit agency capital outlays

© 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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71%

27%

46%

35%

88%

83%

84%

76%

46%

29%

56%

86%

91%

93%

81%

86%

36%

46%

75%

32%

77%

48%

76%

55%

88%

60%

71% 100%

66%

38%

58%

54%

55%

35%

60%

82%

70%

80%

24%

HI43%

82%

VT81%

CT84%

RI97%

DE68%

NJ39%

MD52%

DC50%

NH82%

50 to 80% of urban transit capital outlays

MA45%

94%

Over 80% of urban transit capital outlays

25 to 50% of urban transit capital outlays

Federal funds, on average, provide 64% of urban transit agency capital outlays

© 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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Upcoming Transit Projects

Source: Federal Transit Administration Fiscal Year 2017 Capital Investment Grant Program (New Starts, Core Capacity and Small Starts) Annual Report on Funding Recommendations © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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ND

SD

WY

ID

MO

IA

MN

WI

NE

KSCO

OKAR

MS AL

SCNM

TN

KYNC

VA

OHPA

NY

ME

UTNV

AZ

OR

WA

MT

TX

Current FTA Capital Investment Grant Projects

AK

HI

MI

IN

WV

LA

CA

IL

Source: Federal Transit Administration

Core Capacity

New Starts

Small Starts

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U.S. Subway & Light Rail Construction Forecast

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

(e)

2017

(f)

2018

(f)

2019

(f)

2020

(f)

2021

(f)

Billi

ons o

f 201

6$

Real Value of Subway & Light Rail Transit Construction Work

Source: ARTBA Forecast Model © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

Page 26: 2017.05.15 ILDP EconPresentation ABlack · $531 $718 $529 888 $303 $435 $271 $385 $775 $566 $389 $263 $299 $306 $400 $672 656 $691 $521 003 $797 $704 $895 $804 778 738 078 105 368

Transit Agency Capital Expenditures

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

$5.0Ca

lifor

nia

New

Yor

kDi

stric

t of C

olum

bia

Was

hing

ton

Colo

rado

Mas

sach

uset

tsN

ew Je

rsey

Illin

ois

Texa

sPe

nnsy

lvan

iaHa

wai

iM

aryl

and

Flor

ida

Min

neso

taN

orth

Car

olin

aO

rego

nO

hio

Geor

gia

Arizo

naM

ichi

gan

Virg

inia

Conn

ectic

utM

issou

riIn

dian

aU

tah

Nev

ada

Alas

kaW

iscon

sinTe

nnes

see

Kent

ucky

Iow

aDe

law

are

Wes

t Virg

inia

Kans

asLo

uisia

naAr

kans

asN

ew M

exic

oId

aho

Neb

rask

aM

ississ

ippi

Alab

ama

Sout

h Ca

rolin

aRh

ode

Isla

ndN

orth

Dak

ota

Okl

ahom

aM

aine

Verm

ont

Mon

tana

Sout

h Da

kota

New

Ham

pshi

reW

yom

ing

2015 2012-2014 Average

Billi

ons

Source: National Transit Database © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior writtenpermission of ARTBA.

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RAILModal Profile

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Class I Freight Railroad Revenue Sources

Sources: AAR, FRA © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

• Class I freight railroads are privately owned, so all spending comes from Class I revenues, which totaled $140.7 billion in 2015.– $69.0 billion in

freight revenues (49%)

– $71.7 billion in operating revenues (51%)

Page 29: 2017.05.15 ILDP EconPresentation ABlack · $531 $718 $529 888 $303 $435 $271 $385 $775 $566 $389 $263 $299 $306 $400 $672 656 $691 $521 003 $797 $704 $895 $804 778 738 078 105 368

Class I Freight Railroad Expenditures

Run (Operate)

58%Maintain

15%

Grow and Modernize

27%

Source: AAR © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

Fuel10%

Wages19%

Track and Property

18%Purchased Services

12%

Equipment and Other

Rentals14%

All Other Taxes11%

Materials and Supplies

4%

Employee Benefits

3%

Payroll Taxes

4%

Other5%

Spending by Category Spending by Type

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Class I Railroad Infrastructure and Equipment Expenditures

$19.3 $20.2$21.5

$20.2 $20.7$23.3

$25.5 $25.1$28.0

$30.3

$25.9

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Billi

ons

Source: AAR © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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Federal Investment in U.S. Rail Construction Market

• Though Class I railroads are privately owned, the Federal Railroad Administration provides some support to passenger and freight railroads through grant and loan programs:

– Competitive Discretionary Programs• Railroad Safety Infrastructure Improvement Grants• Railroad Safety Technology Grants for Positive Train Control (PTC)• Railroad Safety Grants for the Safe Transportation of Energy Products by Rail Program• Magnetic Levitation Projects – Grant Application Solicitation• FY14 Grant Application Solicitation • FRA-Led Regional Rail Planning• High-Speed Intercity Passenger Rail Program (HSIPR)!• Rail Line Relocation & Improvement Capital Grant Program (RLR)• Railroad Rehabilitation & Repair (Disaster Assistance)• Railroad Safety Technology Grant Program• Transportation Investment Generating Economic Recovery (TIGER)• Railway-Highway Crossing Hazard Elimination• University Grants

– Dedicated Grant Programs• Amtrak Capital Grants• Alaska Railroad• Operation Lifesaver, Inc. (OLI)

– Loan Programs• Railroad Rehabilitation & Improvement Financing (RRIF) Program• Transportation Innovation & Finance (TIFIA)

Source: FRA © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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U.S. Railroad Construction Forecast

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

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2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

(e)

2017

(f)

2018

(f)

2019

(f)

2020

(f)

2021

(f)

Billi

ons o

f 201

6$

Real Value of Railroad Construction Work

Source: ARTBA Forecast Model © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

Page 33: 2017.05.15 ILDP EconPresentation ABlack · $531 $718 $529 888 $303 $435 $271 $385 $775 $566 $389 $263 $299 $306 $400 $672 656 $691 $521 003 $797 $704 $895 $804 778 738 078 105 368

AIRPORTSModal Profile

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Airport Revenue Sources

Aeronautical Operations

35%

Non-Aeronautical Operations

30%

Grants6%

Passenger Facility Charges

10%

Bonds19%

Source: FAA Certification Activity Tracking System (CATS) Operating and Financial Summary Report 127, 2016 data © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

Page 35: 2017.05.15 ILDP EconPresentation ABlack · $531 $718 $529 888 $303 $435 $271 $385 $775 $566 $389 $263 $299 $306 $400 $672 656 $691 $521 003 $797 $704 $895 $804 778 738 078 105 368

Airport Expenditures

Operations44%

Debt financing

21%

Capital Investment

35%Operations

44%

Debt financing

21%

Airfields9%

Terminals15%

Parking2%

Roadways, rail and transit

3%

Other Capital

Investment6%

Spending by Category Spending by Type

Source: FAA Certification Activity Tracking System (CATS) Operating and Financial Summary Report 127, 2016 data © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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Federal Investment in U.S. Airport Construction Market

• The Airport Improvement Program (AIP)– In FY 2015, 1,765 AIP grants worth $3.2 billion were

awarded – U.S. airports have identified $34.7 billion in unfunded

improvements needed over the next five years that would be eligible for AIP grants.

– Funded through Airport and Airway Trust fund• National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems

(NPIAS)• Passenger Facility Charge (PFC) Program

Sources: FAA, ARTBA Analysis © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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$2,232

$981

$508

$2,769

$265

$378

$265

$500

$724

$913

$291

$361

$296

$373

$357

$422

$2,507

$569

$428

$657

$629

$564

$766

$609

$1,234

$865

$514

$840

$858

$

$246

$419

$480

HI$365

$474

VT$146

CT$204

RI$176

DE$76

NJ

MD$317

DC$279

NH$195

$250-500 million

MA$546

$600

Less than $250 million $500-$750 million

Value of Airport Improvement Program (AIP) Grants by State2006-2015 (in millions)

Over $750 million

$1,669

$1,516$646

$248

$488

$794

$920

$394

Source: ARTBA analysis of AIP Grants © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

Page 38: 2017.05.15 ILDP EconPresentation ABlack · $531 $718 $529 888 $303 $435 $271 $385 $775 $566 $389 $263 $299 $306 $400 $672 656 $691 $521 003 $797 $704 $895 $804 778 738 078 105 368

U.S. Airport Terminal & Runway Construction Forecast

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

(e)

2017

(f)

2018

(f)

2019

(f)

2020

(f)

2021

(f)

Billi

ons o

f 201

6$

Real Value of Airport Terminal & Runway Construction Work

Source: ARTBA Forecast Model © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

Page 39: 2017.05.15 ILDP EconPresentation ABlack · $531 $718 $529 888 $303 $435 $271 $385 $775 $566 $389 $263 $299 $306 $400 $672 656 $691 $521 003 $797 $704 $895 $804 778 738 078 105 368

Forecast for U.S. Airport Construction

$4.8 $4.8 $4.9 $5.1 $5.2 $5.4

$8.3 $8.4 $8.6 $8.8 $9.1 $9.4

$13.1 $13.2 $13.5 $13.9 $14.3 $14.8

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

2016 (e) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f) 2021 (f)

Billi

ons o

f 201

6$

Runways Terminals

Source: ARTBA Forecast Model © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

Page 40: 2017.05.15 ILDP EconPresentation ABlack · $531 $718 $529 888 $303 $435 $271 $385 $775 $566 $389 $263 $299 $306 $400 $672 656 $691 $521 003 $797 $704 $895 $804 778 738 078 105 368

State & Local Government Airport Runway Contract Awards

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250Fl

orid

aCa

lifor

nia

Illin

ois

Texa

sAl

aska

Mas

sach

uset

tsM

issou

riVi

rgin

iaGe

orgi

aVe

rmon

tRh

ode

Isla

ndCo

lora

doAr

izona

Dist

rict o

f Col

umbi

aW

ashi

ngto

nO

hio

Indi

ana

Ore

gon

Miss

issip

piN

ew Y

ork

Nev

ada

Nor

th C

arol

ina

Wisc

onsin

Penn

sylv

ania

Mon

tana

Kans

asU

tah

Loui

siana

Iow

aTe

nnes

see

Sout

h Ca

rolin

aN

ew M

exic

oDe

law

are

Wyo

min

gSo

uth

Dako

taO

klah

oma

Min

neso

taKe

ntuc

kyN

orth

Dak

ota

Mic

higa

nN

ew Je

rsey

Neb

rask

aHa

wai

iAl

abam

aAr

kans

asM

aryl

and

Wes

t Virg

inia

Mai

neId

aho

New

Ham

pshi

reCo

nnec

ticut

April 2016 - March 2017 Previous 3 years average

Mill

ions

of 2

016

$

Source: ARTBA analysis of Dodge Data Analytics data. Weighted with the ARTBA Price Index that takes into account material prices, wages and inflation. © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

Page 41: 2017.05.15 ILDP EconPresentation ABlack · $531 $718 $529 888 $303 $435 $271 $385 $775 $566 $389 $263 $299 $306 $400 $672 656 $691 $521 003 $797 $704 $895 $804 778 738 078 105 368

PORTS & WATERWAYSModal Profile

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Federal Investment in U.S. Inland & Intracoastal Waterways

• The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers regulates activities in waterways and wetlands.– Funds the planning, design, construction, operation

and maintenance of water resources projects – Focus on:

• commercial navigation• flood and storm damage reduction• aquatic ecosystem restoration.

– Harbor Maintenance Trust Fund – Inland Waterways Trust Fund

© 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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Army Corps of Engineers Program Revenue Sources

General Fund78%

Harbor Maintenance Trust

Fund20%

Special Recreation User Fees

1%

Inland Waterways Trust Fund

1%

Source: U. S. Army Corps of Engineers Civil Works Budget, from President’s Fiscal 2017 Budget © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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Army Corps of Engineers Program Expenditures

Operation and Maintenance

58%

Construction24%

Mississippi River and Tributaries

5%

Regulatory Program

4%

Expenses4%

Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program

(FUSRAP)2%

Investigations2%

Flood Control and Coastal

Emergencies1% Office of the

Assistant Secretary of the Army for

Civil Works<1%

Source: U. S. Army Corps of Engineers Civil Works Budget, from President’s Fiscal 2017 Budget © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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U.S. Ports Revenue Sources

Ports15%

Private Sector85%

Source: AAPA Port Planned Infrastructure Investment Survey. This reflects projected expenditures between 2016 and 2020. © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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Federal Investment in U.S. Ports

• U.S. ports and private sector partners plan to spend $154.8 billion in port-related improvements between 2016 and 2020.

• Federal support to aid freight movements through ports could be as high as $24.8 billion during the same period.– FAST Act provisions for which ports are eligible:

• $11 billion over five years in dedicated funds for freight• $500 million in continued USDOT TIGER discretionary grants • $1.4 billion for TIFIA program• Creation of Surface Transportation Block Grant Program

– 25% of potential TIGER grants (up to $625 million)– Projected U.S. Army Corps of Engineers navigation

appropriations (up to $13.2 billion)

Source: AAPA Port Planned Infrastructure Investment Survey. © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

Page 47: 2017.05.15 ILDP EconPresentation ABlack · $531 $718 $529 888 $303 $435 $271 $385 $775 $566 $389 $263 $299 $306 $400 $672 656 $691 $521 003 $797 $704 $895 $804 778 738 078 105 368

U.S. Port Expenditures, by Port Region

Gulf port region82%

South Atlantic port region

6%

South Pacific port region

5%

North Atlantic port region

3%

North Pacific port region

3% Great Lakes port region

1%

Source: AAPA Port Planned Infrastructure Investment Survey. This reflects projected expenditures between 2016 and 2020. © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

Page 48: 2017.05.15 ILDP EconPresentation ABlack · $531 $718 $529 888 $303 $435 $271 $385 $775 $566 $389 $263 $299 $306 $400 $672 656 $691 $521 003 $797 $704 $895 $804 778 738 078 105 368

Outlook for U.S. Port & Waterway Construction

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

(e)

2017

(f)

2018

(f)

2019

(f)

2020

(f)

2021

(f)

Billi

ons o

f 201

6$

Real Value of Port & Waterway Construction Work

Source: ARTBA Forecast Model © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

Page 49: 2017.05.15 ILDP EconPresentation ABlack · $531 $718 $529 888 $303 $435 $271 $385 $775 $566 $389 $263 $299 $306 $400 $672 656 $691 $521 003 $797 $704 $895 $804 778 738 078 105 368

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers FY 2016 Civil Works Program, by State

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600Ill

inoi

sCa

lifor

nia

Texa

sFl

orid

aW

ashi

ngto

nLo

uisia

naPe

nnsy

lvan

iaGe

orgi

aKe

ntuc

kyVi

rgin

iaAl

abam

aO

rego

nAr

kans

asTe

nnes

see

Miss

ouri

New

Jers

eyM

inne

sota

Wes

t Virg

inia

Mar

ylan

dIo

wa

Okl

ahom

aM

ichi

gan

Ohi

oN

orth

Car

olin

aN

ew Y

ork

Alas

kaSo

uth

Caro

lina

Kans

asN

ew M

exic

oIn

dian

aM

assa

chus

etts

Sout

h Da

kota

Nor

th D

akot

aDe

law

are

Miss

issip

piN

ebra

ska

Wisc

onsin

Idah

oM

onta

naCo

lora

doHa

wai

iCo

nnec

ticut

New

Ham

pshi

reVe

rmon

tN

evad

aAr

izona

Rhod

e Is

land

Mai

neW

yom

ing

Uta

hDi

stric

t of C

olum

bia

Construction, Operation and Maintenance Construction

Mill

ions

Source: U. S. Army Corps of Engineers Fiscal Year 2016 Army Civil Works program Work Plan © 2017 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

Page 50: 2017.05.15 ILDP EconPresentation ABlack · $531 $718 $529 888 $303 $435 $271 $385 $775 $566 $389 $263 $299 $306 $400 $672 656 $691 $521 003 $797 $704 $895 $804 778 738 078 105 368

State & Local Government Port/Waterway Contract Awards

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300So

uth

Caro

lina

Was

hing

ton

New

Yor

kVi

rgin

iaLo

uisia

naTe

xas

Miss

issip

piCa

lifor

nia

Flor

ida

Mas

sach

uset

tsN

ew Je

rsey

Mai

neHa

wai

iAl

aska

Ohi

oN

orth

Car

olin

aIll

inoi

sM

ichi

gan

Wisc

onsin

Indi

ana

Conn

ectic

utN

ew H

amps

hire

Mar

ylan

dPe

nnsy

lvan

iaU

tah

Wes

t Virg

inia

Idah

oKe

ntuc

kyO

rego

nM

inne

sota

Geor

gia

Alab

ama

Mon

tana

Colo

rado

Wyo

min

gIo

wa

Verm

ont

New

Mex

ico

Sout

h Da

kota

Arizo

naAr

kans

asDe

law

are

Dist

rict o

f Col

umbi

aKa

nsas

Miss

ouri

Neb

rask

aN

evad

aN

orth

Dak

ota

Okl

ahom

aRh

ode

Isla

ndTe

nnes

see

April 2016 - March 2017 Previous 3 years average

Mill

ions

of 2

016

$

Source: ARTBA analysis of Dodge Data Analytics data. Weighted with the ARTBA Price Index that takes into account material prices, wages and inflation. This only reflects state and local contract awards of port and waterway projects. © 2017 ARTBA.All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

Page 51: 2017.05.15 ILDP EconPresentation ABlack · $531 $718 $529 888 $303 $435 $271 $385 $775 $566 $389 $263 $299 $306 $400 $672 656 $691 $521 003 $797 $704 $895 $804 778 738 078 105 368

Alison Premo BlackSenior Vice President & Chief Economist

American Road & Transportation Builders [email protected]

@APremoBlack


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