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2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References...

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October 29, 2018 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop 1
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Page 1: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

October 29, 2018

2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop

1

Page 2: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

2

Agenda

1. Introduction/Opening Remarks R. Benbow

2. Preparedness

a. Winter 2017-18 Lessons Learned R. Benbow

b. Offer Cap Status C. Hansen

c. Winter Resource Assessments

i. Generation (Resource Assessment) E. Rodriguez

ii. Transmission (CSA) B. Relucio

3. Readiness

a. Preparation T. Hines

b. Winterization C. Drake

i. ERCOT Weatherization Review A. Allgower, ERCOT

4. General Discussion/Questions

Page 3: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Winter 2017-18 lessons learned will allow for more efficient management of obligations throughout the year.

3

New Capacity Advisory communication to increase situational awareness and encouraged stakeholders to update market data

Improve collaboration, communication, and coordination within MISO, with members and with neighbors

Provide greater awareness and communication surrounding the Regional Dispatch Transfer constraint

Internal training and drills on Emergency Purchases

Proactively engage with Generator and Transmission Owners to identify outages flexible to address any tight operating conditions

Clarified roles around public appeal requests

Page 4: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

4

MISO continues to promote cost-effective and innovative solutions to increase preparedness and respond to challenging situations

Continued improvements on

Emergency Pricing

Conduct drills and training on Emergency

Purchases with external entities

Improve management of

uncertainty between DA and RT load

forecasts

Continue to work with Joint Parties on

management of the Regional Dispatch

Transfer

Coordinate with RAN* effort to address

demand side management and

emergency procedures

*Resource Availability and Need (RAN)

Page 5: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Preparedness

5

Page 6: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

FERC Order 831 – Energy Offer Cap

FERC has accepted MISO’s latest

compliance filing, subject to two language cleanup

changes

MISO will submit a compliance filing

addressing directed tariff language adjustments

Effective date: October 1, 2020

MISO has submitted a Tariff Waiver Request for

the upcoming winter, similar to previous years

Verified energy costs above $1,000/MWh

could be recovered via Revenue Sufficient Guarantee (RSG)

payments

Effective dates: 12/1/2018 – 4/30/2019

6

Page 7: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Offer Cap References

• MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00)

• FERC Acceptance of MISO’s Compliance Filing (2018-10-01 165

FERC ¶ 61,004 Docket No. ER18-622)

• MISO Order 831 Compliance Filing (2018-05-29 Docket No. ER18-

622-003)

• November 2017 MSC Update on FERC Order 831

• April 2017 MSC Update on FERC Order 831 Compliance Approach

• March 2017 MSC Update on the impacts of FERC Order 831

• August 2016 MSC Update on Offer Cap

• May 2016 MSC Tutorial on Offer Cap

7

Page 8: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Resource Assessment: Generation

Eric Rodriguez

Page 9: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

9

MISO Preliminary 2018-19 Winter

Forecast

MISO WideReserve Margin Target

17%

Projected Reserve Margin 36%

Winter Peak Forecast 103 GW

Total Projected Available Capacity

140 GW

All-time Winter Peak:

109 GW on January 6th, 2014

Final assessment results will be presented at Winter Readiness Workshop on October 29

Adequate resources are projected to meet demand for Winter 2018-2019

NOAA forecasts warmer than normal temperatures for most of the MISO footprint

Page 10: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Forced Out [MW] Total Out [MW]

Average of 15 monthly peak hours 14,743 25,114

Max seasonal average of 5 seasons 21,708 32,912

Maximum peak day 25,802 38,618

Planned and Maintenance Outages are a significant portion of the total outages during past winters

10

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

MW

MISO generation outage totals during monthly peak hours

GADSMaintenanceOutages

GADS PlannedOutages

GADS ForcedOutages

Seasonal derates (~9 GW) are accounted for in the capacity values

Page 11: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

140.7

44.025.1

18.8

5.8*

102.6

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

ProbableCapacity

(w/o S-N RDTL)

CoincidentPeak Forecast

ProbableReserves

(Pre-Outage)

Total Outages ProbableReserves

(Post-Outage)

139.7

42.125.1

17.0

5.0*

102.6

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Base Capacity(w/o S-N RDTL)

CoincidentPeak Forecast

Base Reserves(Pre-Outage)

Total Outages Base Reserves(Post-Outage)

Total Outage Predictions based on 5-year winter outage data from GADS

11

*Capacity which was assumed non-transferrable from planning analysis is included

in MISO-wide outage results, to reflect total outage impact seen by operations

S-N RDTL: South-to-North/Central Regional Directional Transfer Limit

Page 12: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Under a high load and extreme outage scenario, MISO would rely on maximum generation procedures

12

*Capacity which was assumed non-transferrable from planning analysis is included

in MISO-wide outage results, to reflect total outage impact seen by operations

140.7

36.8 32.93.9

5.8*

109.8

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

ProbableCapacity

(w/o S-N RDTL)

90/10Coincident

Peak Forecast

High LoadReserves

(Pre-Outage)

Total HighOutages

High LoadReserves

(Post-Outage)

140.7

36.8 38.6-1.8

5.8*

109.8

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

ProbableCapacity

(w/o S-N RDTL)

90/10Coincident Peak

Forecast

High LoadReserves

(Pre-Outage)

Total ExtremeOutages

ExtremeReserves

(Post-Outage)

S-N RDTL: South-to-North/Central Regional Directional Transfer Limit

Page 13: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

38%

62%

25.1

10.2 6.32.4

44.0

.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

ProbableReserves

TotalOutages

Generation BTMG+DR OperatingReserves

GW

13

Probable Outage

High Load High Outage

In a high load and high outage scenario, MISO would rely on BTMG and DR to meet peak demand

Emergency only resources(Steps 2b and above)

54%33%

13%

32.9

1.5 2.4

36.8

.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

High LoadReserves

Total HighOutages

Generation BTMG+DR OperatingReserves

GW

Pie charts represent breakdown of available post-outage resources

Page 14: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

-10-505101520253035

Chance of LMRs Being Called for Winter 2018-19

Use of System-Wide Emergency Operating Procedures could be necessary if higher than normal load or forced outages reduces the available resource margin

14

Shaded area represents a 40% probability of realizing a Winter scenario requiring Emergency Operating Procedures

The red line represents 6.3 GW of potentially available Load Modifying Resources (LMRs)

and 2.4 GW of Operating Reserves

Page 15: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Questions?

Page 16: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Contact Info

• Eric Rodriguez

Resource Adequacy Coordination

(317) 249-5831

[email protected]

• Ryan Westphal

Resource Adequacy Coordination

(651) 632-8526

[email protected]

16

Page 17: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Generation Resource Assessment Appendix

Page 18: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Winter Resource Assessment Process

• Various forced outage scenarios studied

• Load Modifying Resource (LMR) availability

based on historical winter performance

• Regional transmission path contracts considered

18

Generation Load Reserves

Page 19: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Investigation of three winter resource and load scenarios show sufficient level of planning reserves

19

Total Probable Capacity includes 1.1 GW of MISO-North resources with Energy

Resource Interconnection Service (ERIS) without a firm point-to-point Transmission

Service Request (TSR)

These are “energy-only” resources not counted as capacity, but still are available to serve local load

in real-time operations

37.1

139.7102.6

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

TotalCapacity

CoincidentPeak Forecast

Base Reserves(Pre-Outage)

38.2

140.7

102.620

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Total ProbableCapacity

CoincidentPeak Forecast

Probable Reserves(Pre-Outage)

31.0

140.7

109.8

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Total ProbableCapacity

90/10 CoincidentPeak Forecast

High Load Reserves(Pre-Outage)

Page 20: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Base Scenario

20

Page 21: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Base Scenario

21

GVTC: Generation Verification Test CapacityTIS: Total Interconnection ServiceER: Energy ResourcesTSR: Transmission Service RequestBTMG: Behind The Meter GenerationDR: Demand Response

2.6 3.7

2.0 9.2.6 1.3 .0 15.1

1.92.5 .0 5.0 37.1

171.0

139.7

102.6

.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

GW

Page 22: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

The need for emergency procedures will be impacted by the availability of resources

3.2

6.3

2.5

4.1

5.8

16.1

-5.8

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

Stranded Capacity

Capacity Imports

Load Modifying Resources

Wind Generation

GW

Counted as Winter Capacity Potentially Available Potentially Not Available

Page 23: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Resource Assessment: Transmission

Benny Relucio

Page 24: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Overview

• Why perform the Coordinated Seasonal Assessment (CSA)?

• Evaluate a variety of stressed conditions across the MISO

footprint

• Then provide system operators with guidance as to

possible but unlikely system conditions that would warrant

close observation to ensure system security

• Inform Real-Time Operations of potential limitations and

issues on the system for the upcoming winter

• Coordinate with other entities

• The limitations in the system were within the expected

norms for the upcoming winter

24

Overview

Page 25: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Overview – CSA Analyses

Steady-State AC Contingency

Analysis

• Evaluates the effect of simple and complex contingencies on the MISO footprint and Tier-1 areas

• IROL review

Thermal Analysis during Energy Transfer

Simulations

• First Contingent Incremental Transfer Capability (FCITC)

• Evaluates the impact of high MW transfers & identifies key flowgates and lines that may limit transfers

• 4 transfer analyses studied

Voltage Stability Analysis during Energy Transfer

Simulations

• Power-Voltage Analysis (PV)

• Analyzes high transfers in combination with transmission & generator outages which can cause stability issues across the footprint

• 4 High Voltage interfaces studied

Phase Angle Analysis during Energy Transfer

Simulations

• Identifies large phase angle differences associated with reclosing a transmission line

• Identify angle differences before and after an energy transfer

25

Page 26: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Steady-State AC Contingency Analysis

• Category P0 (Cat A) – system intact• Category P1 (Cat B)

• P1.1 (B1) – fault generator• P1.2 (B2) – fault transmission circuit• P1.3 (B3) – fault transformer• P1.4 – single shunt device• P1.5 (B4) – block single dc pole

• Stakeholders provided additional P2, P3, P6 and P7 contingencies they deemed beneficial to run for their areas

Contingencies

• No outstanding thermal or voltage issues identified that does not have mitigations by the operating transmission entity

• Interconnection Reliability Operating Limit (IROL) Screening:• No new or valid IROLs identified

Results

26

Page 27: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Thermal Transfer Analysis(FCITC)

AnalysisFCITC

(MW)Constraint

MISO CENTRAL Region West to East Transfer(Wilton Center to Dumont)

2,491

[AEP] Tanners Creek - [DEO&K] Miami Fort 345 kV ckt 1

for the loss of [DEO&K] Terminal - [DEO&K] East Bend 345 kV ckt 1

MISO CENTRAL Region East to West Transfer(Dumont to Wilton Center)

3,939[ITCT] Monroe 1&2- [ATSI] Lallendorf 345 kV for the

loss of [ATSI] Allen Jct - [METC] Morrocco 345 kV ckt 1

MISO Midwest (NORTH &

CENTRAL) to MISO SOUTH-186 [EMBA] Franklin - [EES] Bogalusa 500 kV ckt 1 for the

loss of [EMBA] Franklin - [EES] McKnight 500 kV ckt 1

MISO SOUTH to MISO Midwest

2,500 No Violations

27

Page 28: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

CSA Transfer (FCITC) Historical Trend

28

Wilton Centerto Dumont

Dumont toWilton Center

MISOMidwest to

South

MISO Southto Midwest

2018-19 2491 3939 -186 2500

2017-18 5000 6000 3000 0

2016-17 5000 4949 0 0

2015-16 3657 5000 3000 0

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

MW

Not Studied

Not Studied

Not Studied

Not Studied

Page 29: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Voltage Stability (PV) Analysis

• Down Stream of Gypsy (DSG) Interface• Western Interface• West of the Atchafalaya Basin (WOTAB) Interface• Fancy Point / Baton Rouge Area Interface

Interfaces Evaluated

• Each Interface underwent a transfer simulation with different case scenarios ranging from system intact to applying a known outage

• As Transfers occurred severe contingencies were applied• Results indicate that system limitations due to voltage

stability were within the expected norm for the entire spectrum of scenarios

Scenarios and Results

29

Page 30: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Voltage Stability (PV) Analysis

• First time for this Analysis based on the Fancy Point Operating Guide

• As Internal Area Generation was ramping down:• Voltage conditions observed • Flow on Fancy Point 500/230kV AT1 Transformer

measured

Fancy Point Area Interface

• Analysis illustrated the points where AT1 transformer overloads under various scenarios and contingencies

• Results verify the conditions laid out in the Fancy Point Operating Guide

Takeaway from Results

30

Page 31: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Phase Angle Analysis

• Measure the phase angle differences between 2 ends of a line:• first when it is closed • Then measure again when it opens (contingency)• Make measurement before & after an energy transfer• Report Phase Angles > 30 degrees

Procedure

31

MISO Operating

RegionTransfer Status Delta Bus Angle Line / Contingency

NORTHBefore° 41.0

[OTP] Center – [OTP] Prairie 345 kV ckt 1After° 45.8

NORTHBefore° -32.0

[OTP] Center – [OTP] Jamestown 345 kV ckt 1After° -37.4

SOUTHBefore° -25.9

[EES] Mt. Olive – [AEPW] Layfield 500 kV ckt 1After° -33.7

SOUTHBefore° -32.5

[EMBA] Franklin – [EES] Bogalusa 500 kV ckt 1After° -33.5

SOUTHBefore° -37.0

[AEPW] Crockett – [EES] Grimes 345 kV ckt 1After° -47.8

Page 32: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Contact Info

Benny [email protected]

(317) 249-5231

Kojo [email protected]

(651) 635-8461

2018-19 Winter CSA Results on the MISO Extranet (CEII NDA, UNDA Appendix A, &

Reliability Authority Approval Required)https://www.misoenergy.org/extranet/reliability-authority/planning-authority

Page 33: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Readiness

33

Page 34: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Each winter brings challenges that have to be closely monitored

34

Sustained cold temperatures

Fuel Limitations Frozen Equipment

Severe weather conditions

Forced Generation Outages

Rapid Load Pickups

Weather Uncertainty

Solar GenerationWind Generation

Page 35: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

35

Gas-Electric Coordination

• Enhanced Operational Tools

• Gas-Electric Market Alignment

• Reliability & Pipeline Calls• Pipeline & Price Monitoring• Operational Situational Awareness

Emergency Preparedness

• MISO EOP & Winter Readiness Workshops

• Emergency Response & Power System Restoration Drill

• Emergency Procedures

MISO is well prepared to handle winter operations

Generation Portfolio

• Diverse generation pool to ensure

reliability

• Planning and collaboration with

members for generation utilization

Operational Readiness

• Communication, Coordination, Planning, and Training

• Generation Fuel Survey

• MISO Winterization Guidelines

• Enhancements

Obligations are successfully met through expertise, collaboration, and communication

Page 36: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Partnering with members to drill on emergency process ensures readiness in all operating situations

36

XML DRILL:• Last

Wednesday of each month @ 13:00 EST

• LBAs onlyFirm Load Shed Drill:

• 1st Wednesday of each month @ 13:00 EST

• LBAs only

EDR Drill:• 2nd Thursday of

each month @ 10:00 EST

LMR DRILL:• 2nd Tuesday of

each month @ 10:00 EST

• MPs only

LMM Drill:• 2nd Tuesday of

each month @ 10:00 EST

• LBAs only

Power Restoration Drills: Two Drills held each Fall.

FRIDAYMONDAY

Page 37: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Long-Lead Generation

Commitments

Generation Outages Rescheduled

Restored all Possible Transmission

Outages

Curtail Schedules

Reconfiguration Options

Emergency Generation

Load Management

Operating Reserves

Emergency Purchases

In Real-Time, unplanned outages and other unknowns may require emergency procedures to gain access to additional resources and ensure reliability

37

Ops PlanningOps Planning Cons Ops / AlertsCons Ops / Alerts Warning / EventWarning / Event

Load Shortage

Review load obligations against available resources and system

conditions

Take Actions to ensure reliability and avoid Load Shed

https://www.misoenergy.org/markets-and-operations/reliability-operating-procedures/#t=10&p=0&s=&sd=

Page 38: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Improved operating tools and resources help further Gas-Electric situational awareness

38

MISO Website: Gas Pipeline

Notifications Page

Fuel Impact Report: Potential

At Risk Units

Electric/Gas Pipeline Map

Display

Winter Generator Fuel Survey

Generator-Pipeline Database

Gas Usage Profiles FERC 809

Page 39: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

• New MISO Gas / Electric Coordinator started October 1

• Delayed injections due to lingering spring cold and high

summer demand led to the lowest gas storage levels in 10

years

‒ However, strong production is offsetting low storage

levels and keeping prices flat

• 2 new large pipelines placed into service in October increase takeaway capacity

from the Marcellus and Utica Basins

• MISO 2018-2019 Winter Fuel Survey: October 1-26

‒ Identical survey questions to 2017

‒ Market Participant participation rate similar to last year (>80%)

‒ Final results presented at the December RSC Meeting

• No additional notable items to report for Winter 2018-19

Gas pipeline and storage access throughout the MISO footprint support winter generation needs

39

Page 40: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Additional enhancements to tools and processes position MISO to manage extreme circumstances

40

• Provides transparent price signals to procure ten minute reserves to return the RDT constraint to within limits following a generator contingency in the South

Enhanced Reserve Procurement on Regional

Directional Transfer

Aug 2018

• Supports unit commitments in the Baton Rouge/New Orleans area to prevent severe overloads on the Fancy Point transformer for N-1-1 events.

• Similar to other South Region load pockets like DSG, Amite South, and Western

Fancy Transformer Operating Guide

Aug 2018

• Works to ensure sufficient resources are available for Real-Time operations

Resource Availability and Need (RAN)

On-going

• Improves operational Electric-Gas situational awareness

Electric-Gas Tools and Resources

On-going

Page 41: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Winterization

41

Page 42: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

42

MISO generators can protect against losing capacity by preparing

• Evaluation of Potential Problem Areas

• Detailed and Tested Winterization Plan

• Critical Instrument and Equipment Protection

• Fuel Availability Considerations

• Apply NERC’s winter generator reliability guidelines

• Utilize CROW outage scheduling system to account for cold weather impacts to unit performance and fuel availability

Extreme winter weather can contribute to significant losses of electric generation through frozen equipment and fuel procurement issues

Page 43: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

It is essential to update MISO Outage Scheduler for cold weather impacts to unit performance, including fuel availability

• The MISO CROW (Control Room Operations Window) outage scheduling system is used to plan, receive, analyze, and report outages of transmission and generation facilities

Initiates Outage Coordination Studies /

Reviews

• BPM-008 Outage Operations

• Attachment D: Guidance on Selecting Appropriate Cause Codes for Outage Submission

Informs the Day Ahead Market of resource

participation

• BPM-002 Energy and Operating Reserve Markets

• Section 4.2.2

Method for downstream processes to know

availability of generation

• Transmission Security Planning

• Day Ahead and Forward Reliability Commitment Assessment

• Real Time

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MISO is enhancing the Winterization Review Process, including communicating lessons learned and creating a Winterization Survey

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

GO/GOP updates

to CROW

Jan

End Winter Season

GO/GOP updates

to CROW and

GADS

Feb 28

Planning Resource

Auction

April 1-10

Final GO/GOP

GADS Updates

April

Completion of

Holistic Review of

Winter GADS

Outage Data

June

MISO Follow-Up on

Generator

Performance

July

MISO Follow-Up on

Generator

Performance and

Aug

Winter

Readiness

Workshop

Oct

Send Out

Winterization

Survey and Gas Fuel

Survey

Oct

Discuss Responses

to Winterization

Survey and

Determine

Resource

Availability Impacts

Nov

Begin Winter

Season

GO/GOP

updates to

CROW

Dec

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Winter Survey (In Development) will help share industry lessons learned using past unit performance and lessons learned

Did this unit trip or experience any equipment freeze issues during the winter?

• Was this a reoccurring event or did it occur during a previous winter? If yes, explain in detail the cause.

• After examining the element(s) which froze or forced the trip previously – what measures has the plant taken to protect the element from freezing?

• Were these measures in effect when the equipment froze?

What lessons learned and improvements has the plant made?

• Explain the physical or operational improvements. Are lessons learned included in the weatherization plan?

Are there any outstanding work orders that relate to winter readiness that would prevent the unit from starting or could trip the unit during an extreme cold weather event?

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Page 46: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Does the resource have a plan to prepare for winter?

Does the resource have a severe cold weather checklist?

Is there a maintenance procedure for confirming heat tracing is functioning properly?

Has the plant done a thorough inspection of all critical insulation?

Has plant management and maintenance personnel reviewed the NERC Guideline Generator Unit Winter Weather Readiness –Current Industry Practices V2?

Advanced planning and preparation for the winter season

Page 47: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Generator Winter Weatherization

47

Page 48: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Appendix

Page 49: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

49

Energy Offer Cap

• Tariff waiver filed, as in previous years, to allow recovery of verifiable incremental energy costs in excess of the $1,000/MWh energy offer price cap

• Interim solution to FERC Order 831 compliance which will becomeeffective on Oct 1, 2020

Reference Levels

• Request consultation with IMM if reference levels aren’t reflective of costs or unit capabilities

CROW Outage Cause Codes

• Mandatory and based on outage priority

• Essential to implement MISO’s unit commitment plan and conduct post-event analysis

• Use specific codes in place of 115 Other

Reminders

Page 50: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Summary of FERC Order 831

• Cap each resource’s offer at the higher of $1,000/MWh (soft cap) or verified cost-based incremental energy offer

• Cap verified cost-based “equivalent” incremental energy offers at the hard cap of $2,000/MWh for setting energy prices

Revises the energy offer cap for resources, currently

set at $1,000/MWh

• Resource may be eligible for make-whole payment if verification cannot be completed before market close or for verified cost-based “equivalent” energy offers above $2,000/MWh

Offers will be verified by the IMM after market close

and before market processes run

• Waiver was filed for this winter, as for previous years

MISO and IMM are working to ensure system and software readiness for

implementation in Fall of 2020

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Sample Future Lessons Learned

Plant A_CC1 tripped – loss of instrument air to main gas

supply valve due to moisture freezing in instrument air line.

� Root cause; steam side and air side check valves failed

Plant B_GT1 tripped – one of two rotor cooling air heat

exchanger transmitter froze, which caused a low level

condition.

� Root cause; lack of transmitter cabinet heater.

� Corrective action; plant to install cabinet heater.

Plant C_G1 tripped – sensing line level transmitter froze.

� Root cause; insulation missing.

� Corrective action; plant to install flexible wrap insulation.

Heat trace is not an option for this section of line.

52* Sample Lessons Learned obtained from ERCOT Public Weatherization Workshop

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AccuWeather forecasts a mild beginning to the winter season

53

As of Oct 15, 2018

Page 54: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

Operators use emergency procedures mitigate capacity concerns and maintain reliability

54

Emergency Operating Procedures

guide operator actions when an event has the potential to, or actually does, negatively impact system reliability

Conservative System

Operations

Severe Weather Alert

Hot Weather Alert

Cold Weather Alert

Geo-Magnetic

Disturbance Warning

Maximum Generation

Emergency Procedures

For more information - MISO Operating Procedures One-Pager and Appendix

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MAXIMUM GENERATION EMERGENCY DETAILS

https://cdn.misoenergy.org/SO-P-EOP-00-002%20Rev%205%20MISO%20Market%20Capacity%20Emergency237357.pdf

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Conservative System Operations Procedure

SO-P-NOP-00-449

https://cdn.misoenergy.org/SO-P-NOP-00-

449%20Rev%201%20Conservative%20System%20Operations237368.pdf

MISO Market Capacity

Emergency

SO-P-EOP-00-002

https://cdn.misoenergy.org/SO-P-EOP-00-002%20Rev%205%20MISO%20Market%

20Capacity%20Emergency237357.pdf

Page 57: 2018-19 Winter Readiness Workshop - misoenergy.org. 20181029 Informational...Offer Cap References • MISO Tariff Waiver Request (2018-10-01 Docket No. ER19-27-00) • FERC Acceptance

MISO’s operating procedures ensure reliability during emergency or abnormal operating situations Conservative Operations: If conditions warrant, MISO will transition from normal operating conditions to Conservative Operations to prepare local operating personnel for a potential event, and to prevent a situation or event from deteriorating

Emergency Operations: Emergency Operating Procedures (EOPs) guide system operator actions when an event occurs on the electric system that has the potential to, or actually does, negatively impact system reliability. EOPs are communicated in escalating order as alerts, warnings, and events

Cold Weather Alert Extreme temperatures forecasted

Severe Weather Alert Adverse weather conditions within the area

Conservative Operations Declarations Reliability issues may be possible

Maximum Generation Alert MISO forecasts a potential capacity shortage

Maximum Generation Warning Preparing for a possible event

Maximum Generation Event (Step 1) / EEA*1 Taking steps to preserve operating reserves

Maximum Generation Event (Steps 2, 3, 4) / EEA*2

Taking steps to preserve firm load

Maximum Generation Event (Step 5) / EEA*3

Actual event occurring - shed firm load and/or perform rolling brownouts or blackouts for defined area

57*NERC Emergency Energy Alert (EEA)

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Conservative System Operations

• MISO is responsible for determining, declaring, coordinating (when time permits) and communicating Conservative System Operations for the purpose of maximizing MISO’s ability to operate the Bulk Electric System (BES) reliably during periods of extreme weather conditions and other abnormal circumstances that pose an imminent threat to the power grid.

• Five declarations are used to prepare operating personnel and facilities for extreme weather conditions or abnormal conditions that will, or have the potential to, impact the Bulk Electric System (BES):

58

Conservative System

Operations

Severe Weather Alert

Hot Weather Alert

Cold Weather Alert

Geo-Magnetic Disturbance

Warning

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• Cold Weather Alert may or may not coincide with a Conservative System Operations declaration, and can be for any portion of the MISO system.

Cold Weather Alert

59

Cold Weather Alert

• TOPs and GOPs review plans to determine if any scheduled or in process maintenance or testing on monitoring, control, transmission, or generating equipment can be deferred or cancelled

• GOPs shall report and provide updates to the MISO Regional Generation Dispatcher (RGD) concerning all fuel/environmental limited resources for the duration of the Alert

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Define boundaries of Alert Area and

start and end time of Alert period

Declare or update Conservative

System Operations as appropriate

Identify the amount of

available External Resources that

can be scheduled into the Alert area

Identify the amount of non-firm Export

Schedules from Alert area available for curtailment

during a Warning declaration

The purpose of the Max Gen Alert is to communicate system conditions for Operational Awareness. Steps in this level are designed to prepare entities for

actions during subsequent levels of the Max Gen process. Each level/step actions are exhausted, time permitting, prior to going to next step.

Maximum Generation Emergency - Alert Level

60

MPs to ensure energy interchange transactions sourcing or sinking in the

MISO Balancing Authority Area (MBAA)

are accurate

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Maximum Generation Emergency - Alert Level

61

Determine amount of increased transfer

capability and/or amount of transmission

constraint stranded generation that can be

made available

MPs and LBAs ensure LMR

availability data, self-scheduled LMR and LMM

information in the MCS-LMR Tool is

updated and accurate

Coordinate with TOs to determine the availability of any transmission

system reconfiguration options in the shortage area

Issue any projections,

declarations, or specific

instructions via MCS

Communicate!

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Ensure use of Economic Maximum Limits by

MISO processes (MPs to review limits and

ensure all ranges are offered)

Review Emergency Demand Response

(EDR) offers to determine availability.

Collect and review LMR availability via the MCS

LMR Tool

LBAs may issue public conservation

announcements and/or public appeals

Maximum Generation Emergency -Warning Level

62

Max Gen Warning indicates that Operating Reserve requirements may not be met in the near future without taking actions

MPs to ensure correct availability data is entered in the Tool

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Maximum Generation Emergency - Warning Level

63

Instruct available External Resources (Module E registered Capacity Resources) to be

scheduled into the MBAA in the amount required to

relieve the shortage condition.

Curtail non-firm Export Schedules from the Warning Area in the

amounts required to relieve the shortage condition.

Instruct TOs to implement reconfiguration options expected to increase

transfer capability into the Warning Area and/or make

transmission constraint stranded generation

available in the amount required to relieve the

shortage condition.

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Commit Generation Resources, DRR–Type 1 and DRR–Type 2 that are Available Max Emergency

(AME)

Implement Emergency Generation Limits

Declare NERC Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) Level 1 – All available Resources are in use

Maximum Generation Emergency - Event Level

64

When MISO cannot meet forecasted Energy and Operating Reserve requirements with Economic Maximum Limits

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Declare NERC EEA Level 2 –

Load Management

in effect

Instruct Load to be reduced via Module E

Load Modifying Resources (LMRs) and reduction via

Load Management Measures –

Stage 1

Commit EDR offers,

available in the event

area, in merit order

Emergency purchases

from neighboring BAs (excess

energy)

Instruct LBAs to issue public

appeals to reduce demand

Maximum Generation Emergency - Event Level

65

Max Gen Event Step 2 is the implementation of Load Management actions. These resources include LMRs, LMMs, EDRs

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Maximum Generation Emergency - Event Level

66

Supplemental, then spinning reserves are utilized as co-

optimized by Unit Dispatch System (UDS)

Instruct Load to be reduced by Load Management Measures – Stage 2 by

LBAs

- Reduction by LBA will be determined by prorated of total amount of resources available in Event Area

- Includes voltage reductions

Operating Reserves have been depleted. Use Load Management Measures Stage 2

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Maximum Generation Emergency - Event Level

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Implement Reserve Call from Contingency Reserve Sharing

Group

Implement additional Emergency energy purchases (typically from neighboring Balancing Authority's

Operating Reserves)

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Maximum Generation Emergency - Event Level

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Declare NERC EEA Level 3 –Firm Load interruption imminent or in progress

Direct Firm Load Shedding in the defined Event Area by LBA

Firm Load Shed in progress or imminent

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Maximum Generation Emergency -Termination

69

Short-term forecasted Load returned below (and continuing

below) the sum of the economic

maximums of on-line Resources plus scheduled

interchange

Maximum Generation Event

is terminated

Generation Resources should verify they have

returned to normal economic

operating ranges

Steps taken during Maximum Generation Emergency will be restored in the reverse order from implementation

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LMR Process & Steps taken by MISO & Market Participants (MPs) / Asset Owners (AOs)

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