ACP TeamSteering Committee Meeting 3
2018 Comprehensive Plan & City Code UpdateSteering Committee Meeting 3September 26, 2018
ACP TeamSteering Committee Meeting 3
WelcomeBrendan Moore, AICPExecutive DirectorOffice of Urban Development
ACP TeamSteering Committee Meeting 3
WelcomeJamie Greene, AIA FAICPPrincipal, Planning NEXT
ACP TeamSteering Committee Meeting 3
1. Welcome
2. Process Update
3. Conditions and Trends
4. Subcommittees
5. Forum on the Future
6. Adjourn
Agenda
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Process Update
ACP TeamSteering Committee Meeting 3
November 7, 2018
2-4pm
Council Chambers at City Hall (2201 University Boulevard)
Meeting Added
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Schedule Overview and Milestones
Gathering input & Understanding conditions
Drafting recommendations
Refining plan
Testing & prioritization
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1. Drafting recommendations (Jan-May)• Land Use (where and how we grow)
• Housing and Neighborhoods• Lakes
• Mobility / Transportation• Infrastructure• Community facilities and services• Other topics
2. Test/Prioritize draft recommendations with community: Open Houses (late summer)
3. Refine recommendations and prepare final plan
Phase 3: Plan Development
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1. Analysis• Housing• Land Use• Transportation• Infrastructure• Economic Conditions
2. Stakeholder input3. Preparing for public engagement4. Weekly consultant-staff coordination
Consultant-staff work to-date
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1. Distribute prepared printed material to your networks (flyers, posters, etc.)
2. Share emails, social media posts
3. Speak with people about Framework at community events
Follow-up from August 8Outreach targets & responsibilities
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Conditions and Trends
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1. From 2000-2016, the City grew by approx. 17,450 people (to 96,350).
2. UA has contributed to that growth. From 2000 to 2017, the University’s enrollment increased by 19,245 (to 38,563)• Not all students live in Tuscaloosa• Students likely undercounted by Census estimates• ~31,000 of UA students are between ages of 18-24 (80%)
• ~25,000 people in Tuscaloosa are between the ages of 18-24
3. Other growth factors: Tuscaloosa added 6,000 jobs since 2009
Demographic UpdateHow has UA’s growth contributed to Tuscaloosa’s overall population change?
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ALABAMA
GRAND TOTALPRIVATE SCHOOLS TOTAL*
PUBLIC SCHOOLS
TOTAL
Hispanic
School Year
Alone, or Any Race
White BlackAmerican
Indian/Alaska Native
Asian/Pacific Islander
(Combined)
Repo
rted
Cou
nts o
f Hig
h Sc
hool
Gr
adua
tes
2000-01 41,316 4,234 37,082 238 24,073 11,986 437 3482001-02 40,127 4,240 35,887 245 23,462 11,374 459 3472002-03 41,412 4,671 36,741 313 24,127 11,500 417 3842003-04 41,729 5,265 36,464 325 23,949 11,483 339 368 Available Data for
Additional Race Categories
2004-05 42,644 5,191 37,453 404 24,391 11,803 404 4202005-06 42,908 4,990 37,918 478 24,680 12,026 343 3912006-07 43,488 4,576 38,912 580 25,004 12,546 342 411 Hawaiian/
Pacific Islander
Two or More Races2007-08 45,981 4,635 41,346 684 26,375 13,343 437 474
2008-09 47,359 5,277 42,082 799 26,380 13,884 461 5092009-10 48,178 5,012 43,166 976 26,569 14,558 407 6062010-11 50,756 4,721 46,035 1,213 27,958 15,836 492 536 7 47
Proj
ectio
ns o
f Hig
h Sc
hool
Gra
duat
es
2011-12 50,263 4,869 45,394 1,206 27,781 15,333 467 607 13 102
2012-13 49,128 4,895 44,233 1,338 27,052 14,758 488 597 21 142 2013-14 49,242 4,815 44,427 1,453 27,143 14,719 462 6432014-15 50,317 4,846 45,471 1,579 27,764 15,038 419 6732015-16 49,386 4,601 44,785 1,712 27,380 14,604 472 6562016-17 49,102 4,531 44,571 1,843 27,308 14,368 474 6492017-18 49,843 4,455 45,389 2,035 27,421 14,745 478 7672018-19 48,690 4,072 44,618 2,226 26,905 14,373 453 7312019-20 47,131 3,738 43,394 2,243 26,223 13,832 498 7102020-21 46,185 3,562 42,623 2,487 25,915 13,118 487 8082021-22 45,801 3,333 42,468 2,562 25,631 13,137 492 8752022-23 45,850 3,223 42,627 2,657 25,906 12,993 490 8582023-24 46,808 3,704 43,104 2,979 25,546 13,503 494 8432024-25 48,325 3,792 44,533 3,357 25,838 14,159 523 9462025-26 48,737 3,724 45,013 3,678 25,895 14,323 522 1,0032026-27 47,122 3,567 43,555 3,477 25,084 13,807 568 1,0582027-28 45,138 3,428 41,710 3,200 24,313 13,023 550 1,0262028-29 44,514 3,420 41,094 2,944 24,122 12,842 525 1,0602029-30 43,890 3,367 40,523 2,590 23,783 12,957 552 1,1262030-31 43,745 3,343 40,402 2,667 23,766 12,826 554 1,0232031-32 44,677 3,411 41,266 2,672 24,342 13,051 471 1,132
UA Student Population Doubled Since 2000, but trend not likely to continue
UA Enrollment• 2000 à 19,318• 2017 à 38,563
Higher EducationInstitution
2017 Fall Enrollment
Average Undergraduate
Enrollment 2006 – 2016
University of Alabama 38,563 24,523
Shelton State Community College 4,607 5,036
Stillman College 694 957 Source: Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama
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Demographic UpdateHow has do students impact the City’s poverty rate?
• City overall poverty rate is 24%
• Above poverty statistic includes students living off campus (Students living on campus / in group quarters not counted)
• Of the City’s poverty population, 47% are 18-24 years old—college age.
• When adjusting for students (removing them from the population) the poverty rate is 19% - near State average
29%
47%
17%
7%
27% 28%
15%11%
UNDER 18 YEARS
18-24 25-64 65 YEARS AND OVER
POVERTY POPULATION BY AGE
Tuscaloosa City Alabama
2016 American Community Survey
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1. Housing Inventory & Conditions
2. Policy Analysis (from existing City plans)
3. Needs Analysis
Housing Study Components
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Study Areas
Planning Area
City Limits
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5-year Affordable Housing Study
Analysis Input
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Vast Majority of Residential Properties are Single-Family
Characteristics of Units
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Majority of Housing Stock Built in Last Four Decades
Characteristics of Units
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Public Housing Clustered in Subareas
Characteristics of Units
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Areas with High Propensity for Change
Potential Housing/Neighborhood Issues
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Delivery of Multifamily Peaked in 2015, All Other Housing Products Fluctuating
Housing Market Trends
Estimated Delivery of Units Annually by Type
Expected Delivery of MF Units 2018-2020based on current Land Development Permits
• 833 units• 2,007 bedrooms
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Significant Uptick in Vacant Units Deemed “Seasonal, Recreational, and Occasional Purpose Housing”
Approximately 19%of housing units in Tuscaloosa are estimated to be used for
seasonal, recreational, or occasional purposes (includes off-campus student housing)
Housing Market Trends
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Sales Prices and Rents are on Par with Region
1. Median Sales Price • $165,000• Per SF = $113
2. Median Rental Price• $963
Slow Return to Pre-Recession Home Values
Housing Market Trends
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Share of Cost-Burdened Homeowners Align with State
Cost Burdened = a household paying more than 30% of
household income on housing expenses
• Tuscaloosa à 31%• Tuscaloosa County à28%• State of Alabama à 31%
Housing Market Trends
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Existing plans contain a strong focus on…
1. Protecting Neighborhood Character
2. Promoting Housing Diversity
3. Assisting Lower Income Households
4. Serving Neighborhoods
Existing Policy Highlights
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“Need” components
Net In-migration
Natural Household Formation
Life stage change
Propensity to Rent or Buy
Income Capacity
Existing unitson Market
New Construction
Demand Drivers Housing Supply
Loss of units
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312370 378
240 248 281 275
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Single Family Detached Townhome/Duplex Triplex or Quadplex MultiFamily Linear (Single Family Detached )
Housing Production
Single family trend line
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301
4327
209
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Single Family Detached Townhome/Duplex Triplex or Quadplex Mulitfamily (5+ units)
2011 to 2017 Timeframe
Estimated average annual production• 580 units
• Excludes 2018 and the 2014 / 2015 MFH units
Source: NP calculation based on city housing permit data
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Housing Sales Are Increasing
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Single Family Housing SalesMoving average
Source: NP analysis of MLS data
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133.44 135.76
020406080
100120140160
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
FHFAHousing Price Index zip code 354
Base Year 2000 = 100
Same House Pricing Performance Over Time
• Index measures housing values looking at same house repeat sales or refinancings
• Based on FHFA housing index, housing prices at peak
Source: NP analysis of Federal Housing Finance Agency pricing data
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740577
762
1340
1801
1440
916
623 580477 445
1078
537 468
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Less than$50,000
$50,000 to$74,999
$75,000 to$99,999
$100,000to
$124,999
$125,000to
$149,999
$150,000to
$174,999
$175,000to
$199,999
$200,000to
$224,999
$225,000to
$249,999
$250,000to
$274,999
$275,000to
$299,999
$300,000to
$399,999
$400,000to
$499,999
$500,000or greater
Housing Sales Activity by Price Point2008 - 2017
Housing Sales Price Points Over Last 10 Years
Source: NP analysis of MLS data
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Less than$50,000
$50,000 to$74,999
$75,000 to$99,999
$100,000to
$124,999
$125,000to
$149,999
$150,000to
$174,999
$175,000to
$199,999
$200,000to
$224,999
$225,000to
$249,999
$250,000to
$274,999
$275,000to
$299,999
$300,000to
$399,999
$400,000to
$499,999
$500,000or greater
Distribution of Price PointsComparing Years 2008 to 2017 versus 2015 to 2017
% of sales
08 to 17 15 to 17
Price Point Comparisons: 10-year vs. 2-year
Source: NP analysis of MLS data
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• Of 2,275 new mortgage applications, 35% receive some form of government support
• Home improvement loans have a high denial rate • 161 applied for in 2016, 142 denied
Housing Financing Activity
Tuscaloosa City Mortgage Financing Activity 2016
Number $000's Avg Size Number $000's Avg Size Number $000's Avg Size Number $000's Avg Size Number $000's Avg SizeLoans originated 787 133,612$ 169.8$ 1488 296,158$ 199.0$ 1038 176,448$ 170.0$ 161 14,403$ 89.5$ 532 94,939$ 178.5$ Apps denied 94 14,596$ 155.3$ 286 30,003$ 104.9$ 487 65,380$ 134.3$ 142 4,815$ 33.9$ 80 7,986$ 99.8$
Nonoccupant Loans From Columns A, B, C, and DHome Improvement LoansConventional RefinancingsFHA, FSA/RHS; VA
Source: NP analysis of Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council data
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69
133
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Student Non Student
total vacant
Rental Market Snapshot• Very little rental housing available based on the market snapshot• Now is off cycle for student housing
47% of total rental
53% of total rentals
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$1.64
$1.20 $1.21 $1.21 $1.34
$0.97 $0.82 $0.76
$0.00$0.20$0.40$0.60$0.80$1.00$1.20$1.40$1.60$1.80
Studio 1 BR 2 BR 3 BR
Average Rents per Square Foot
Student Non Student
Comparing Rents by # of Bedrooms in Units
• Student rents are higher per square foot (not adjusted for age or amenities) and differential grows as size grows
• “Student” defined as either marketed as student or within 1.5 miles of mid point of main UA campus
59% differential
22% differential
24% differential 48% differential
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0% 1% 0% 1% 2%0%
2%
7% 6%
11%
3%0%
24%
28%25%
29%
14%
0%0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
One - Person Two - Person Three - Person Four - Person Five - Person Six – Person
Rental Affordability for Low Income Households
Percent of affordable units available for very extremely low income families
Percent of affordable units available for very low income families
Percent of affordable units available for low income families
Rental Analysis• Affordable rental housing for low income families is limited based on
the rental market snapshot
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Job TypeAverage Salary
Max Rent @30% Income
Assemblers and Fabricators $44,110 $1,103
Retail Salespersons $26,150 $654
Registered Nurses $57,350 $1,434
Secretaries and Administrative Assistants $35,130 $878
Waiters and Waitresses $19,820 $496
Janitors $26,210 $655
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers $40,350 $1,009
Nursing Assistants $23,920 $598
Elementary School Teachers $47,130 $1,178
Customer Service Representatives $29,110 $728
Retail Sales Managers $37,960 $949
Office Managers $51,270 $1,282
Cooks $21,450 $536
Industrial Machinery Mechanics $60,860 $1,522
Restaurant Managers $31,280 $782
High School Teachers $48,630 $1,216
Police Officers $52,870 $1,322
Accountants and Auditors $65,790 $1,645
UA Assistant Professor Salary $77,986 $1,950
UA Instructor Salary $55,243 $1,381
Rental Affordability by Occupation
College Debt:
Currently, just under 20% of the city’s population is 25 to 39 years old. Those recently out of college often make less money and are facing student loan debts that limit their available income for rent. The average debt at graduation for University of Alabama was $29,320. So, for example, if the recent grad could afford $1,254 a month in rent based on income level, that number would drop to $943 to take into account their student debt burden.
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31
-94
708
130
-173
658707
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
<25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
Drivers of Demand: Household Change by Age (2023)
Source: NP analysis of ESRI forecast data
• Household increase of almost 2,000 forecasted by 2023
Move up family housing ?
Aging in place / senior housing ?
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Drivers of Demand: Household Change by Age and Income
Households <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+HH Income Base 31 -94 708 130 -173 658 707< $15,000 -167 -158 34 -95 -151 42 93$15,000-$24,999 -56 -106 -24 -58 -71 23 98$25,000-$34,999 1 -100 18 -48 -56 64 54$35,000-$49,999 57 -31 50 -14 -44 77 94$50,000-$74,999 98 84 167 48 24 126 140$75,000-$99,999 49 91 171 76 67 124 100$100,000-$149,999 52 96 186 144 71 120 77$150,000-$199,999 2 18 62 41 8 41 28$200,000+ -5 12 44 36 -21 41 23
Projected gain of 1300 households
Low Income Senior housing?
Source: NP analysis ESRI
Note: these estimates should be viewed as directional order of magnitude
• Creates pressure on different typologies
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4,704
50078 23 158 268 113
-64
224 97 66 19 137
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
18 to 19years
20 to 24years
25 to 29years
30 to 34years
35 to 39years
40 to 44years
45 to 49years
50 to 54years
55 to 59years
60 to 64years
65 to 69years
70 to 74years
75 years +
Tuscaloosa Metro
Drivers of Demand: Net In-Migration• Population migration represents 6,300 new residents• Excluding 18 year olds, gain is only 1,600 people, 1100 if exclude 24 yr olds• City represents approximately 50% of metro
•
Source: NP analysis of ACS Migration surveys
** In bullet 2, are you missing a 0 or a comma?
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1474
493
1327
976
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Ownership Rentals
5 year Housing Unit ForecastsBaseline Forecasts with Student Age Population
ESRI Demand Estimate CBER Demand Estimate
Demand based on Two Household Forecasts
1469
467
1221
323
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Ownership Rentals
5 year Housing Unit ForecastsForecast w/o Student Age Population
ESRI Demand Estimate CBER Demand Estimate
Source: NP forecast based on ESRI & CBER population estimates. CBER estimates adjusted to reflect city and estimated household size
• Student age population assumptions major driver of rental needs
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Housing Price Points Required to Meet Household Increase
370
275
213243
291
200175
81 88
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Less than $375 $375 - $625 $625 - $875 $875-$1250 $1250-$1875 $1875-$2500 $2500-$3750 $3750-$5000 $5000+
Approximate Units Required by Monthly Price PointNo Students
ESRI BASE
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1. In-migration creates need for about 800 housing units annually (ACS migration statistics)
2. Internal moves (renters and home owners) within Tuscaloosa equate to approximately 2200 annually (ACS migration statistics)
• Nationally 11% of non student renters move annually – if Tuscaloosa renters followed national pattern translates to around 1000 units
3. Natural household formation equates to another 1100 units of demand (ESRI household forecast - ACS migration statistics)
Ø 3,000 to 4,000 housing units required +
Students and seasonal / recreational / game day homes = ?
Components of Housing Demand
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2200
650 580
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Internal Housing Turnover Out migration Average Annual Production
Estimated Annual Housing Supply3400 - 3500 units
Tuscaloosa capacity “aligned” with conceptual demand
Source: NP calculations
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1. Need to address aging housing stock to address affordability needs.
2. Housing prices are increasing and above 2008 levels.
3. The type of new housing being delivered may not be aligning with market needs
4. Non-student rental market is tight and student housing distorts pricing.
5. Demographic shifts may put pressure on certain housing typologies.
6. Needs to be housing at a full range of price points
Key take-aways
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Discussion
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Subcommittees
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Housing
1. Examine the results of the Housing Study
2. General topics: • Design • Density• Infrastructure
3. Two broad categories: • Workforce and Affordability• Student Rentals
Job Description: Housing
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1. Where are target areas of the community that can support future workforce and affordable housing?
2. How can community investment support revitalization that and retain neighborhood fabric and families in existing community?
3. How should student housing regulations be revised to better achieve community goals?
4. What forms of housing (types and density) should be encouraged and where? How can we support development of these types?
Homework: HousingOutside of Steering Committee Meetings
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Lakes: Tuscaloosa, Harris, and Nicol
1. Private property: • Lakefront development • Water quality, sedimentation and watershed dynamics• Infrastructure
2. City property (on acquisition line): Docks, piers, boat houses, etc.
3. Recreation:• Tourism• Activities• Nuisances
Job Description: Lakes
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1. What are the opportunities and challenges associated with recreation and tourism on Lake Tuscaloosa, Lake Nicol, and Lake Harris?
2. Lake Tuscaloosa serves as both a water resource and provides residential opportunities for the City – how do we balance both needs?
3. How do we manage the needs for boats, docks, piers, etc. on Lake Tuscaloosa so that those developments do not impact the quality of the lake but also allow residents to fully enjoy their properties?
4. Developments adjacent to Lake Tuscaloosa traverse both the public and private realms – how do we simplify the process to eliminate confusion?
Homework: LakesOutside of Steering Committee Meetings
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Forum on the Future
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1. Introduce plan process to community
2. Share high level findings from research and input so far
3. Obtain input on where and how to grow (through individual and group activities)
Purpose and Outcomes
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• Large public gathering—presentation followed by small group work
• Two critical questions will be explored: • “Where do we grow?” • “How do we grow?”
• November 27, 6-8pm• Tuscaloosa River Market
Initial Thoughts on Format
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1. Table Leader
2. Registration
3. Greeter
Committee Role
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Thank you