24
2018 NON-RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING MARKET UPDATE Market Trends, Actors, and What We Anticipate for the Pacific Northwest
2018 NON-RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING MARKET UPDATE
Market Trends, Actors, and What We Anticipate for the Pacific Northwest
2
Market Modeling and Momentum Savings
Sales Data Collection
Market Intel Gathering
3 MAIN ACTIVITIES
DISPOSITION OF DISTRIBUTOR OUTREACH
4
Recruitment Data Submission QA/QC Distributor Incentive
PROCESS FOR DISTRIBUTOR DATA SUBMISSION
DISTRIBUTORS SUBMITTING DATA = 22
TOTAL DISTRIBUTORS INCLUDED IN OUTREACH = 59
REPEAT PARTICIPANTS = 18 NEW PARTICIPANTS = 4
MIX OF DISTRIBUTORS SUBMITTING DATA COMPARED TO PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DISTRIBUTOR POPULATION
5
Relative Size Distribution Area Business Model
DISTRIBUTOR LAMP SHIPMENTS Floor Space and Branches by State 2017
6
PERCENT OF UNIT SALES by Technology Type 2013-2017
7
LED LAMPS AND FIXTURES
8
LINEAR FLUORESCENT LAMPS AND TLEDS
9
HIGH INTENSITY DISCHARGE LAMPS
10
SCREW-IN LAMPS
11
LED
20%
CFL
23%
Incandescent
39%
Halogen
18%
LED
54%
Incandescent
25%
CFL
10%
Halogen
12%
LEDS ARE 50% OF A-TYPE LAMP SALES
12
LED
24%
CFL
22%
Incandescent
52%
LED
50%
Incandescent
17%
CFL
22%
Halogen
10% Halogen
1%
LEDS ARE NEARLY 60% OF SCREW-BASE REFLECTOR SALES
13
LED
17%
CFL
23%
Incandescent
23%
LED
58%
Incandescent
24%
CFL
3%
Halogen
14% Halogen
37%
WHY WE ATTENDED—IT’S A BIG DEAL
15
World’s Largest Lighting Trade Show
Gain Insight Into Technologies
Talk with Manufacturers
WHO WE TALKED TO
Range of Titles Marketing and Product Development Staff
Sales Reps Engineering Managers Product Managers
16
25 Manufacturers 1 Online Retailer
LEDS
17
Make up 50% to 100% of manufacturers’ product lines
Becoming a commodity Close to their theoretical maximum efficiency
LUMINAIRES
18
Retrofit Kits Readily Available
Some Feature Customizable Lenses/Diffusers
ADVANCED LIGHTING CONTROLS
19
Widely featured at LF 2018: Manufacturers are focusing on controls as the “next frontier” now that LEDs have scaled up Controls Trends: • Easy-to-install products • Color tuning • Luminaire-level lighting controls (LLLCs) • Integrating non-lighting features • No common protocols
SUPPLY CHAINS
20
Traditional supply chains still most common Wholesale distributors by far the largest channel
Retailers
Direct Sales
Wholesale Distributors
ROLE OF UTILITIES
21
Mixed manufacturer opinions about the role of utility incentives
Might be needed only where electricity rates are low
Incentives are a “crutch”
Helpful in getting to where we are Some think incentives are still
critical to generating LED sales
ONE SIDE
OTHER SIDE(S)
Jlaiona @bpa.gov
Jessica Aiona
BPA Research Sponsor
22
CONTACT
Ellen.Rubinstein @researchintoaction.com
Ellen Rubinstein
LIGHTFAIR Lead
Edaykin @cadeogroup.com
Elizabeth Daykin
Cadeo Sales Data Lead
23
APPENDIX
24
inform and validate the market model.
SALES DATA & MARKET INTEL
provides consumption and Momentum
Savings estimates
MARKET MODEL
MOMENTUM SAVINGS
HOW IT FITS TOGETHER
