AccuWeather’s 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast Published on March 25, 2020 About two months from now, the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin, but AccuWeather meteorologists have already been hard at work examining the factors that could influence tropical activity this year. Forecasters are anticipating another busy year for the Atlantic Basin in 2020, on the heels of an active 2019 season. Led by Dan Kottlowksi, AccuWeather’s top hurricane expert, meteorologists this week released a 2020 Atlantic hurricane forecast. Kottlowksi’s team is calling for 14-18 tropical storms during this upcoming season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Of those storms, seven to nine are forecast to become hurricanes, and two to four are predicted to strengthen into major hurricanes. “It’s going to be an above-normal season,” Kottlowski said. “On a normal year, we have around 12 storms, six hurricanes and roughly three major hurricanes.” The 2019 season marked the fourth consecutive year of above-average activity in the basin and was tied with 1969 for the fourth most-active hurricane season on record. Featuring hurricanes Dorian, Lorenzo and Humberto as well as Tropical Storm Imelda, the 2019 season resulted in 18 storms overall and caused more than $11 billion in damage. It’s the nailing line on your shingles. The difference between a good shingle and a great shingle is having SureNail ® Technology. This unique shingle design provides outstanding gripping power. Trust the Grip of the SureNail Strip ® . There’s a line between a good shingle and a great shingle ® . ~ continued on the back 2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE OUTLOOK: FORECASTERS PREDICT ANOTHER ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON Be prepared this hurricane season with TruDefinition ® Duration ® Series Shingles with patented SureNail ® Technology**. So before wind and weather hit, give your home a strong, high-performing roof. For outstanding protection, Owens Corning Roofing recommends TruDefinition ® Duration ® Shingles with patented SureNail ® Technology. Excellent Adhesive Power Outstanding Grip Breakthrough Design Triple Layer Protection ®† Double the Common Bond “No Guess” Wide Nailing Zone Helps keep the shingle layers laminated. The SureNail ® strip enhances the already amazing grip of our proprietary Tru-Bond ®‡ sealant for exceptional wind resistance of a 130-MPH wind warranty.* Patented SureNail ® Technology** is the first and only reinforced nailing zone on the face of the shingle. A unique “triple layer” of reinforcement occurs when the fabric overlays the two shingle layers, called the common bond area. This provides increased protection against “nail pull” from the wind. SureNail ® features up to a 200% wider common bond area in the nailing zone over standard shingles. This tough, engineered woven-fabric strip is embedded in the shingle to create an easy-to- see strong, durable fastener zone.
Transcript
AccuWeather’s 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecastPublished on March 25, 2020
About two months from now, the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin, but AccuWeather meteorologists have already been hard at work examining the factors that could influence tropical activity this year. Forecasters are anticipating another busy year for the Atlantic Basin in 2020, on the heels of an active 2019 season.
Led by Dan Kottlowksi, AccuWeather’s top hurricane expert, meteorologists this week released a 2020 Atlantic hurricane forecast. Kottlowksi’s team is calling for 14-18 tropical storms during this upcoming season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Of those storms, seven to nine are forecast to become hurricanes, and two to four are predicted to strengthen into major hurricanes.
“It’s going to be an above-normal season,” Kottlowski said. “On a normal year, we have around 12 storms, six hurricanes and roughly three major hurricanes.”
The 2019 season marked the fourth consecutive year of above-average activity in the basin and was tied with 1969 for the fourth most-active hurricane season on record.
Featuring hurricanes Dorian, Lorenzo and Humberto as well as Tropical Storm Imelda, the 2019 season resulted in 18 storms overall and caused more than $11 billion in damage.
It’s the nailing line on your shingles. The difference between a good shingle and a great shingle is having SureNail® Technology. This unique shingle design provides outstanding gripping power.
Trust the Grip of the SureNail Strip®.
There’s a line between a good shingle and a great shingle®.
~ continued on the back
2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE OUTLOOK:FORECASTERS PREDICT ANOTHER ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON
Be prepared this hurricane season with TruDefinition® Duration® Series Shingles with patented SureNail® Technology**.
So before wind and weather hit, give your home a strong, high-performing roof. For outstanding protection, Owens Corning Roofing recommends TruDefinition® Duration® Shingles with patented SureNail® Technology.
Excellent Adhesive Power
Outstanding Grip
Breakthrough Design Triple Layer Protection®†
Double the Common Bond“No Guess” Wide Nailing Zone
Helps keep the shingle layers laminated.
The SureNail® strip enhances the already amazing grip of our proprietary Tru-Bond®‡ sealant for exceptional wind resistance of a 130-MPH wind warranty.*
Patented SureNail® Technology** is the first and only reinforced nailing zone on the face of the shingle.
A unique “triple layer” of reinforcement occurs when the fabric overlays the two shingle layers, called the common bond area. This provides increased protection against “nail pull” from the wind.
SureNail® features up to a 200% wider common bond area in the nailing zone over standard shingles.
This tough, engineered woven-fabric strip is embedded in the shingle to create an easy-to-see strong, durable fastener zone.
AccuWeather® is a registered trademark of AccuWeather, Inc. AccuWeather does not endorse or guarantee performance of any products or services.
* See actual warranty for complete details, limitations and requirements. ‡ Tru-Bond is a proprietary premium weathering-grade asphalt sealant that is blended by Owens Corning. † The amount of Triple Layer Protection® may vary on a shingle-to-shingle basis. ** For patent information, please visit www.owenscorning.com/patents. SureNail® Technology is available only on Owens Corning® Duration® Series Shingles. SureNail® Technology is not a guarantee of performance in all weather conditions.
To learn more about TruDefinition® Duration® Shingles with SureNail® Technology, call 1-800-GET-PINK® or visit www.owenscorning.com/roofing.
Owens Corning Roofing And Asphalt, LLCOne Owens Corning Parkway
Toledo, Ohio, USA 43659Ph: 1-800-GET-PINK®
www.owenscorning.com/roofing
Source: AccuWeather
Continue to check in with AccuWeather’s Hurricane Center as the season progresses for updates from expert meteorologists on potential development and impact of storms, satellite images and an interactive hurricane tracker.
“There are a number of analog years we looked at that certainly show high-impact storms affecting the United States,” Kottlowski explained.
This year, forecasters predict two to four impacts are in the cards for the country.
“These could be direct hits or a storm scraping the coast but still causing impacts,” he said.
Early in the season, meteorologists will keep a watchful eye on parts of the Caribbean Sea and areas east of the Bahamas, where the water is already very warm. Water temperatures in the Caribbean have already hit 80 degrees Fahrenheit in late March, according to data from a NOAA station.
“Warm water is actually what drives a lot of seasons,” Kottlowski said. “So those will be areas to keep an eye on for early-season development.”
Although hurricane season is still a few months away, he urged residents living on or near the coast to make their hurricane plans now.
“Forecasts will give you an idea of how active it might be, but all it takes is one storm to make landfall in your area to cause serious and life-threatening problems,” Kottlowski said.
“Go back to last year with Dorian and Imelda,” he added. “Those were two very, very high-impact storms,” he said. “This year, more than likely, we’ll get hit with one or two big storms and we don’t know specifically where that is, so if you live near a coast or on an island, have a hurricane plan in place.”
And there’s reason to believe the 2020 season could be every bit as active.
As part of the method for formulating this season’s predictions, forecasters have drawn comparisons to previous years with comparable weather conditions -- also known as analog years.
This year, AccuWeather meteorologists have looked closely at the years 1980 and 2005.
In 1980, Hurricane Allen developed into a Category 5 storm and wreaked havoc on Haiti before striking lower Texas. More than 200 people were killed.
Meanwhile, 2005 was a particularly “hyperactive year,” Kottlowski said, that resulted in a whopping 28 storms. There were so many storms in 2005 that the predetermined list of names for the season, set by the World Meteorological Organization, was surpassed and the last few storms took on Greek letters as names.
Katrina notoriously exploded into a monster Category 5 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico before decimating portions of the Gulf Coast of the United States, killing 1,800 people and turning some neighborhoods like New Orleans’ Lower Ninth Ward into ghost towns that still haven’t been fully restored and repopulated 15 years later.
Rita and Wilma were also among the ranks of the strongest storms of the 2005 season — and history. Rita became the third Category 5 hurricane of the season and slammed the Florida Keys to Louisiana and southeastern Texas just weeks after Katrina’s rampage. Wilma intensified rapidly to a Category 5 storm with 185-mph winds in Rita’s footsteps and holds the record for the lowest central pressure in an Atlantic hurricane 26.05 inches of mercury (882 mb).
