64
2019 GENERAL ELECTION EXIT POLL APRIL 17 TH 2019
2019 GENERAL ELECTION
EXIT POLL
APRIL 17TH 2019
Methodology
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 2
• The Exit Poll population is all voters who came to polling stations in the 2019
general election.
• Samples were selected by stratified systematic two-stage random
sampling method. The exit poll Margin of Error (MoE) is estimated at ± 2% at a 95% confidence level, assuming simple random sampling.
• Exit poll sampling procedure:
• Stratification: TPS is grouped according to the territory of the DPR RI
electoral district and the status of rural-urban areas.
• Stage-1: In each stratum, TPS as primary sampling unit was chosen
randomly by systematic random sampling and proportional amount.
A total of 3000 polling stations were chosen nationally.
• Stage-2: In each selected polling station, one voter who has just left
the polling station is randomly selected based on gender (male or
female) and time period of when the respondent got out of the
polling station. Then a total sample of 3000 respondents was planned.
Methodology
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 3
• Selected respondents were interviewed face-to-face by trained
interviewers.
• Of the 3000 polling stations planned, as many as 25 polling stations cannot be reached within the specified duration, especially in the Papua region. Thus the total sample analyzed was 2,975 respondents, which came from 2,975 polling stations.
The population of voters spread
throughout the polling stations (TPS)
Populations are grouped according to the stratum (electoral district for the Parliamentary election and the status of the urban/rural area).
In each selected polling station, 1
voter was selected who had just left the polling station as the respondent. The sex of the respondent and time period of when the respondent got out of the polling station were determined randomly.
tps 1 … tps j
Stratum 1
tps 1 … tps k
Stratum z
… …
TPS1 …. TPS Z
Responden
TPS in each stratum was sampled systematically by proportional amount
Flow Chart of Sampling Process
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 4
…
VOTERS PROFILE
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF RESPONDENT
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 6
CATEGORY SAMPLE POPULATION CATEGORY SAMPLE POPULATION
Male 50.0 50.1 Islam 88.1 87.5
Female 50.0 49.9 Katolik/ Protestan 9.5 9.9
Lainnya 2.4 2.6
Rural 51.8 52.1
Urban 48.2 47.9 Javanese 42.2 40.2
Sundanese 15.7 15.5
<=21 yo 11.7 12.7 Batak 3.5 3.6
22-25 yo 9.8 10.1 Madura 3.2 3.0
26-40 yo 35.7 37.0 Betawi 2.9 2.9
41-55 yo 30.7 25.0 Minang 2.6 2.7
>55 yo 12.1 15.2 Bugis 4.0 2.7
Malay 5.2 2.3
Others 20.7 27.1
RELIGIONGENDER
RURAL-URBAN
Age Group
ETHNICITY
* Source: Voters List data per village / urban sub-district issued by the General Election Commission
(KPU) supplemented by Indikator with rural-urban variables from Central Statistic Body (BPS).
CATEGORY SAMPLE POPULATION CATEGORY SAMPLE POPULATION
ACEH 1.8 1.8 WEST NUSA TENGGARA 1.9 1.9
NORTH SUMATRA 5.1 5.3 EAST NUSA TENGGARA 1.8 1.7
WEST SUMATRA 1.9 1.9 WEST KALIMANTAN 1.9 1.9
RIAU 2.0 2.2 CENTRAL KALIMANTAN 0.9 1.0
JAMBI 1.3 1.3 SOUTH KALIMANTAN 1.5 1.5
SOUTH SUMATRA 3.1 3.1 EAST KALIMANTAN 1.3 1.3
BENGKULU 0.7 0.7 NORTH SULAWESI 1.0 1.0
LAMPUNG 3.2 3.2 CENTRAL SULAWESI 1.0 1.0
KEP. BANGKA BELITUNG 0.5 0.5 SOUTH SULAWESI 3.2 3.4
KEP. RIAU 0.6 0.7 SOUTHEAST SULAWESI 0.9 1.0
DKI JAKARTA 4.1 3.8 GORONTALO 0.4 0.4
WEST JAVA 17.4 17.6 WEST SULAWESI 0.5 0.5
CENTRAL JAVA 14.6 14.5 MALUKU 0.7 0.6
IN. YOGYAKARTA 1.4 1.5 NORTH MALUKU 0.4 0.4
EAST JAVA 16.2 16.3 WEST PAPUA 1.9 0.4
BANTEN 4.3 4.2 PAPUA 0.4 1.7
BALI 1.6 1.6 NORTH KALIMANTAN 0.2 0.2
PROVINCEPROVINCE
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF RESPONDENT
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 7
In general, how satisfied or not satisfied are you with the implementation of democracy in our country so far? … (%)
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 9
Implementation of Democracy
35.4
51.8
11.1
0.8 0.9 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Very satisfied Quite satisfied Less satsfied Not satisfied at
all
DK/NA
The majority of citizens are satisfied with the implementation of
democracy in our country so far at 87.2%
According to you, in general how fair, free, direct, and confidential the General Election held today? … (%)
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 10
Fair, Free & Direct Elections
46.5 47.3
3.9 0.5 1.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Very fair Quite fair Less Fair Not fair at all DK/NA
The majority considered the implementation of this election to be fair,
free, direct and confidential at 93.8%.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 12
Presidential Vote: Comparison of Exit Poll & Quick Count Results
46.7 40.1
13.2
54.4
45.6
54.6
45.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Joko Widodo – KH. Ma’ruf
Amin
Prabowo Subianto – Sandiaga
Uno
Secret/No answer
Results of Exit Poll with Respondents Original Answers
Exit Poll results after the secret/no answer response being predicted
Quick Count Results
Exit polls were carried out during the voting period, where the interviewer asked the presidential voting choice of one of the voters who had just left the
polling station that had been randomly selected. In the exit poll, there were 13.2% of respondents who were not willing to answer the president's choice
questions. Indikator then predicts the president's choice of respondents who are not willing to answer this through logistic regression analysis. After those
who did not answer were predicted, the results were total: Jokowi-Amin 54.4%, Prabowo-Sandi 45.6%. It turned out that the results of the exit poll
prediction a few hours before the vote count were very accurate when compared with the results of vote tabulation obtained through the quick count:
Jokowi-Amin 54.6%, Prabowo-Sandi 45.4%.
In the presidential election, which candidates did you vote for? … (%)
Findings:
Prediction of Exit Poll is Very Accurate
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 13
• Exit Poll were carried out during the voting period, where the
interviewer asked the president's choice of one of the voters who
had just left the polling station that had been randomly selected.
• In the exit poll, there were 13.2% of respondents who were not
willing to answer the president's choice questions.
• Indikator then predicts the president's choice of respondents who
are not willing to answer this through logistic regression analysis.
• After those who did not answer were predicted, the results of the
exit poll in total: Jokowi-Amin 54.4%, Prabwo-Sandi 45.6%.
• It turned out that the results of the exit poll prediction a few hours
before the vote count were very accurate when compared with
the results of vote tabulation obtained through the quick count:
Jokowi-Amin 54.6%, Prabowo-Sandi 45.4%.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 14
When The Voting Decision Reached
Since when did you decide to vote for the candidates? … (%)
51.4
11.5 16.5
5.0 5.7 1.8 1.0 1.6 1.6 3.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
More than a
year ago
Since a year
ago
Since a few
months ago
A month
ago
When the
campaign
period
started
about 3
weeks ago
During the
quiet period
a few days
ago
Last night This
morning
before going
to the
polling
station
When inside
the voting
booth
Not
answering
The majority of residents decided their voting choice more than a year ago, 51.4%.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 15
Choice of the Neighborhood Around
According to you, which candidate is the most voted by the residents who voted at the polling station here? … (%)
42.5 36.7
20.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Joko Widodo – KH. Ma’ruf
Amin
Prabowo Subianto –
Sandiaga Uno
Don't know / don't answer
About 42.5% of the residents around the voters’ neighborhood voted for Joko Widodo-Ma'ruf
Amin. While 36.7% voted for Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno. Those who don't know / don't
answer 20.8%.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 17
Candidate Likability
How much do you like the following names, do you really like; quite like; neutral, dislike; or dislike at all? … (%)
5
15 9
33 35
3 4
15 12
40
25
4 6
20 12
30 29
3 5
16 12
30 33
3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Dislike at all Dislike Neutral Quite like Really like DK/NA
Joko Widodo KH. Ma’ruf Amin Prabowo Subianto Sandiaga Uno
Joko Widodo is more liked (68%), then Ma'ruf Amin (65%), Sandiaga Uno (63%), and
Prabowo Subianto (59%)).
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 18
Honest & Empathic Personal Image
Among the following names, according to you, who is the most … ? … (%)
43
53
8 1
22 22 16 15
11 9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Honest and trustworthy Empathic and understanding of people's
problems
Joko Widodo KH. Ma’ruf Amin Prabowo Subianto Sandiaga Uno TT/TJ
Joko Widodo’s image is the best, the majority of them viewed him as empathic and
understand people's problems 53%, and most considered him to be honest / trustworthy 43 %.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 19
Presidential Approval
In general, so far are you very satisfied, quite satisfied, not satisfied, or not satisfied at all with the work performance of President Joko Widodo (Jokowi)? … (%)
27.0
40.0
23.4
5.8 3.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Very satisfied Quite satisfied Less satisfied Not satisfied at
all
DK/NA
Mayoritas warga puas dengan kerja Presiden Joko Widodo (67%).
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 21
Jokowi’s Negative Issues
Do you believe in these opinions … ? … (%)
11
40
30
82
54
64
7 6 7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jokowi is PKI's descendants Lots of his campaign promiseis unfulfilled
Jokowi is a weak Presidentand controlled by foreign
forces
Yes, I believe I Don't believe DK/NA
Quite a number of voters believed in the negative issues that attacked Joko Widodo,
although generally, voters did not believe it. Most believe that many of his political
campaign promises were not implemented.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 22
Prabowo’s Negative Issues
Apakah Ibu/Bapak percaya dengan pendapat … ? … (%)
22 29
37
68 63
54
10 8 9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Prabowo is involved inkindnappng case of activists
Prabowo-Sandi and theirsupporters spreading hoaxes
If Prabowo-Sandi is votedinto office, Indonesia will be
like New Order regime
Yes, I believe I don't believe DK/NA
Quite a number of voters believed in the negative issues that attacked Prabowo
Subianto, although generally voters did not believe it. Most believe that if Prabowo-
Sandi is elected, Indonesia will be like the New Order.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 24
Party Choice: Comparison of Exit Poll & Quick Count Results
Which party or candidate from which party did you vote for in the election of the DPR member of the Republic of Indonesia?? … (%)
9.4
14.3
21.2
11.3
8.2
0.2
0.8
9.4
2.8
4.3
1.7
6.2
1.4
7.5
0.2
0.2
0.9
10.1
4
12.6
8
18.8
9
11.8
0
9.0
5
0.6
2
2.3
7
8.1
8
2.6
8
4.4
0
2.0
3
6.5
6
1.7
4
7.6
3
0.9
3
0.2
8
0
5
10
15
20
25
PK
B
Geri
ndra
PD
IP
Golk
ar
NasD
em
Garu
da
Berk
ary
a
PK
S
Peri
ndo
PPP
PSI
PA
N
Hanura
Dem
okra
t
PBB
PK
PI
NA
/Secre
t
Exit Poll Result Quick Count Result
The exit poll results during the voting period of several hours of vote counting turned out to be very
close to the results of the quick count. The difference between exit poll and quick count is below the
margin of error.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 25
When The Voting Decision Reached
Since when did you decide to vote for the party or candidate from the party? … (%)
39.0
9.3
19.9
9.1 6.6 2.8 1.9 3.3 4.7 3.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
More than a
year ago
Since a year
ago
Since a few
months ago
A month
ago
When the
campaign
period
started
about 3
weeks ago
When it was
quiet
campaign
period a few
days ago
Last night This
morning
before going
to the
polling
station
When in the
voting booth
Not
answering
More voters have made up their minds since more than a year ago (39%).
Quite a lot has also made up their minds since a few months ago 19.9%.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 26
Reason to Vote for a Party
Why do you vote for the party or candidates from the party? … (%)
20
18
12
10
8
8
7
4
2
1
1
1
0
8
0 10 20 30 40 50
The programs that are carried out or promised are the most convincing
All family members chose the party
The most memorable and convincing because of his campaign throughmarches, banners, advertisements on TV, etc.
Fight hardest for the interests of the small people
Have met directly with a candidate or person from his party
The best candidate
Have the most convincing central leaders / figures
Defend religion the hardest
Everyone around here seems to vote for the party
Recommended by a leader or figure around here (RT / RW / Village Head /Village Head, etc.)
Advice from clerics / religious leaders in the area.
Fight hardest for women's interests
The party or candidate gives gifts (money, goods) to me / family
Not answering
The vote choice for the party is more because of the party program at 20%, then
followed by the family choice at 18%, the influence of socialization is at 12%, and the
attention to the interest of the people is at 10%.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 27
Most Likable Party What party or candidate from which party do you like the most? … (%)
21
15
9
9
9
8
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
8
0 5 10 15 20 25
PDIP
Gerindra
Golkar
PKS
PKB
Demokrat
NasDem
PAN
PPP
Perindo
PSI
Hanura
Berkarya
PKPI
PBB
Garuda
Tidak tahu/jawab/rahasia
Affection for the party is in line with the choice of the party. PDIP is the most likable at
21%, then Gerindra 15%, Golkar 9%, PKS 9%, PKB 9%, Democrats 8%, NasDem 6%, PAN
5%, PPP 4%.
Do you know or follow the news about the great campaign activities of the pair Prabowo Subianto - Sandiaga Uno at the Bung Karno Main Stadium (GBK) on last April 7th 2019? ... (%)
If you know, do you like their grand campaign? … (%)
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 29
Prabowo – Sandi Grand Campaign
4
13 13
37
29
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Don't like
it at all
Do not
like itmuch
Neutral Quite like
it
Really
like
DK/NA
Yes, I
know, 45
No, I
don't know,
55
About 45% know the great Prabowo-Sandi campaign, and among those who know
the majority like it, at 66%.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 30
Jokowi – Ma’ruf Amin Grand Campaign Do you know or follow the news about the grand campaign activities of the couple Joko Widodo - KH. Ma'ruf Amin at the
Bung Karno Main Stadium (GBK) on April 13, 2019 recently? ... (%)
If you know, do you like their grand campaign activities? … (%)
6
13 12
40
26
3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Don't like
it at all
Do not
like itmuch
Neutral Quite like
it
Really
like
DK/NA
Yes, I
know, 49
No, I
don't know,
51
About 49% know the grand Jokowi-Ma'ruf campaign, and among those who know
the majority like 66 %.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 31
Election News in Television
In the past two weeks, how often did you follow the news related to the current 2019 simultaneous elections via Television? … (%)
23.3
33.2 33.7
7.4 2.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Every day /
almost everyday
Quite often Rarely Never DK/NA
The majority of residents followed the news about the 2019 Simultaneous Election on
television at 90.2% in varying intensity.
In the past two weeks, have you ever used the internet (for example Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, Youtube, WhatsApp, Line, browsing, e-mail, news sites, etc.)? … (%)
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 32
Internet Access & Social Media
If you have, how often do you follow (watch / read, receive messages or disseminate) news related to the current 2019 simultaneous election through the following media? … (%)
26
19
17
17
6
34
6
29
25
18
27
8
26
7
26
25
21
31
19
19
18
16
27
39
23
60
18
63
2
3
4
3
6
3
6
0 20 40 60 80 100
Youtube
News portal (detik, kompas,tempo, dll.)
Line
Every day/almost every day Quite often Rarely Never DK/NA
Yes, I
have, 53
Never,
47
The majority have used the internet 53%. Among those who have, most often followed
the news about Simultaneous Elections on Facebook.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 34
DKI ELECTION
If you have the right to vote in DKI Jakarta, of the two candidates for Governor-Vice Governor who will you choose in the DKI Jakarta Provincial Election in 2017? … (%)
55.1
29.6
15.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Anies Baswedan and
Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno
Basuki Tjahaja Purnama
(Ahok) and Djarot SaifulHidayat
DK/NA
The majority of voters support Anies-Sandi if DKI guvernatorial elections were held
today.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 35
Religion & Politics
How often do you consider religious orders or values in making political choices during elections? … (%)
25.6
33.5
18.4 14.2
8.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Always / very
often
Quite often Rarely Never DK/NA
The majority of citizens claim to often consider religious orders or values in making
political choices(59.1%).
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 36
Islamic Values
Some argue that in recent years in Indonesia there have been many community behaviors that demean Islamic values. How much do you agree with this opinion? … (%)
(Only Muslim Respondents)
15.9 20.0
25.8 28.2
10.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Highly agree Quite agree Quite disagree Disagree at all DK/NA
The majority of Muslim voters do not agree with the opinion that public behavior
undermines Islamic values.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 37
Islamic Organization ID Do you feel as a part of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), Muhammadiyah, Islamic Unity (Persis),
Indonesian Islamic Da'wah Council (DDII), other Islamic organizations, or not part of any Islamic organization? … (%)
(Only Muslim respondents)
52.8
6.1 1.3 0.5 1.7
26.6
11.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Nahdlatul Ulama
(NU)
Muhammadiyah Islamic Unity
(Persis)
Indonesian
Islamic Da'wah
Council (DDII)
Other Islamic
organizations
Not part of any
Islamic
organization
DK/NA
The majority of Muslim voters felt as part of NU people, then Muhammadiyah. Quite a
few do not feel as part of any Islamic organization.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 39
Presidential Vote According to Gender & Generational Age Groups
54 55
46 45
Male Female
Jokowi - Ma'ruf Amin Prabowo - Sandi
50 53
56 59
50 47
44 41
<= 28 y.o(Young
Millennials)
29 - 38 y.o(Older
Millennials)
39 - 48 y.o(Young Older)
>= 49 y.o(Older)
Jokowi - Ma'ruf Amin Prabowo - Sandi
Based on gender, there is no difference in patterns between men and women. Both men and
women tend to choose Jokowi-Ma'ruf. Based on age group, the young millennial voters are
balanced. Older people tend to be more supportive for Jokowi-Ma'ruf.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 40
Presidential Vote based on Education & Income Group
65 58
49 46
35 42
51 54
<=
Elementary
Junior High
School
High School University/
College
Jokowi - Ma'ruf Amin Prabowo - Sandi
56 56 50
44 44 50
< 1 million 1 mil - < 2 mil >= 2 mil
Jokowi - Ma'ruf Amin Prabowo - Sandi
Voters with elementary and junior high school education tend to choose Jokowi-
Ma'ruf, whereas the higher the education tends to choose Prabowo-Sandi.
Likewise, based on income, the higher income tends to choose Prabowo-Sandi.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 41
Presidential Vote Based on Religion & Islamic Organization ID
49
97
51
3
Muslim Non Muslim
Jokowi - Ma'ruf Amin Prabowo - Sandi
56
34 36
41 44
66 64 59
NU Muham
madiyah
Other Islamic
Organization
Not part of
any Islamicorganization
Jokowi - Ma'ruf Amin Prabowo - Sandi
Muslim voters are fairly evenly divided into two candidate pairs, while non-Islamic voters showed solid
support for candidate pair 01. NU residents tend to vote for candidate 01, while Muslims affiliated with
Muhammadiyah and other mass organizations and non-affiliates tend to choose candidate 02.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 42
Presidential Vote Based on Ethnicity
65
39
72
42
33
14
52
35
61
28
58
67
86
48
Javanese Sundanese Batak Madura Betawi Minang Others
Jokowi - Ma'ruf Amin Prabowo - Sandi
Based on ethnicity, ethnic Javanese, Batak and Other voters tended to vote for
candidate 01, while Sundanese, Madurese, Betawi, and Minang ethnic groups
tended to vote for candidate 02.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 43
Presidential Vote Based on Regions/Area
57 52
38 34
49 43
75
66 71
51 52
77
43 48
62 66
51 57
25
34 29
49 48
23
Rura
l
Urb
an
Sum
ate
ra
Bante
n
DKI
West
Java
Centr
al Ja
va D
IY
East
Java
Bali N
usa
Kalim
anta
n
Sula
wesi
Malu
ku P
apua
Jokowi - Ma'ruf Amin Prabowo - Sandi
Candidate 01 tends to be supported in the rural area. By regions, 01 candidate are
more supported in Central Java + Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali-Nusa, and Maluku-
Papua. While candidate 02 are dominant in Sumatra, Banten and West Java. Both
are relatively tied in DKI, Kalimantan and Sulawesi.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 44
Presidential Vote Based on Party Base
75
21 25
79
COALITION 01 COALITION 02
Jokowi - Ma'ruf Amin Prabowo - Sandi
73
91
64 70 71
54
83
55
5
41
27
9
36 30 29
46
17
45
95
59
PKB
PD
IP
Golk
ar
NasD
em
Perindo
PPP
PSI
Hanura
PBB
PKPI
Jokowi - Ma'ruf Amin Prabowo - Sandi
Voters base of Coalition 01 support candidate 01, and vice versa, voters base of
Coalition 02 support candidate 02. PDIP is the most solid in supporting candidate 01,
followed by PSI, PKB, Perindo, Nasdem, Golkar, Hanura, and PPP. Meanwhile, voter
base of PKPI and PBB tend to support Candidate 02.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 45
Pilihan Presiden Menurut Basis Partai
75
21 25
79
KOALISI 01 KOALISI 02
Jokowi - Ma'ruf Amin Prabowo - Sandi
12
43
20
27 32
88
57
80
73 68
Gerindra Berkarya PKS PAN Demokrat
Jokowi - Ma'ruf Amin Prabowo - Sandi
Gerindra base is the most solid in supporting Candidate 02, followed by PKS, PAN,
Demokrat, and Berkarya.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 47
Party Choice based on Gender (Party QC Weighting)
Based on gender, male and female voters are relatively similar in their voting choices.
10
14
20
11
9
1
2
8
2 4
2
6
2
7
1 0
11 11
18
12
9
1
2
8
3
5
2
7
2
8
1 0
0
5
10
15
20
25
PKB
Gerindra
PD
I-P
Golk
ar
NasD
em
Garu
da
Berk
ary
a
PKS
Perindo
PPP
PSI
PAN
Hanura
Dem
okra
t
PBB
PKPI
Male Female
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 48
Party Choice based on Generational Group (Party QC Weighting)
Based on age group, more PDIP and Golkar voters are older. While Gerindra and PKS
voters tend toward millennial groups.
9
14
17
11
9
0
4
8
4 5
2
8
2
8
1 0
11
15
18
12
10
1 1
10
2 4
3
5
2
8
0 0
10
11
20
13
9
0 1
8
2
4
2
7
2
8
1 0
11 10
22
12
9
2
3
6
3
5
1
6
1
6
2 0
0
5
10
15
20
25
PKB
Gerindra
PD
I-P
Golk
ar
NasD
em
Garu
da
Berk
ary
a
PKS
Perindo
PPP
PSI
PAN
Hanura
Dem
okra
t
PBB
PKPI
Young Millennials (<= 28 y.o) Older Millennials (29-38 y.o)
Young Older (39-48 y.o) Older (>= 49 y.o)
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 49
Party Choice based on Educational Level (Party QC Weighting)
Based on educational level, more PDIP, Golkar and PKB voters come from voters with
lower education background, while PKS voters tend toward higher education.
13
10
21
14
10
1 2
5
2
6
0
6
1
7
1 0
12 12
21
12
8
0
3
6
2
5
2
7
3
7
1 0
7
15
18
11
9
0
2
10
3 4
2
7
2
8
1 0
10
12
16
9 9
0
3
12
3 3
5 5
1
9
1 0
0
5
10
15
20
25
PKB
Gerindra
PD
I-P
Golk
ar
NasD
em
Garu
da
Berk
ary
a
PKS
Perindo
PPP
PSI
PAN
Hanura
Dem
okra
t
PBB
PKPI
<= Elementary Junior High School High School University/College
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 50
Party Choice based on Income Level (Party QC Weighting)
Based on income, more PKB, Golkar and Democrats voters come from those with income level at
<1 million. While PKS voters tend to come from the higher economic class.
10
12
18
12
10
1
3
6
3
5
1
7
2
9
2 0
12 12
20
13
8
0 2
9
3
5
1
6
2
7
0 0
8
14
19
10 9
1
3
10
3 3
4
6
2
7
1 0
0
5
10
15
20
25
PKB
Gerindra
PD
I-P
Golk
ar
NasD
em
Garu
da
Berk
ary
a
PKS
Perindo
PPP
PSI
PAN
Hanura
Dem
okra
t
PBB
PKPI
< 1 million 1 - <2 million >= 2 million
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 51
Party Choice based on Religion (Party QC Weighting)
Based on religion, Muslims are divided relatively evenly into various parties, while non-
Muslims are more solidly into PDIP.
11
14 16
12
9
1 2
9
2 5
1
7
2
8
1 0
3 3
47
8
14
0 3
0
5
1
10
3 1
3
0 0 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
PKB
Gerindra
PD
I-P
Golk
ar
NasD
em
Garu
da
Berk
ary
a
PKS
Perindo
PPP
PSI
PAN
Hanura
Dem
okra
t
PBB
PKPI
Islam Non Islam
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 52
Party Choice based on Rural/Urban (Party QC Weighting)
Based on rural-urban, PKB, Golkar, and NasDem voters tend to be from the rural area.
While PDIP, Gerindra and PKS voters are from urban area.
11 12
17
13
11
0
3
7
2
5
1
6
2
8
1 0
9
13
21
10
7
1 2
10
3 4 3
7
2
7
1 0
0
5
10
15
20
25
PKB
Gerindra
PD
I-P
Golk
ar
NasD
em
Garu
da
Berk
ary
a
PKS
Perindo
PPP
PSI
PAN
Hanura
Dem
okra
t
PBB
PKPI
Rural Urban
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 53
Party Choice based on Regions (Party QC Weighting)
By region, voters in Sumatra are spread quite a lot especially to Gerindra and PDIP.
While Banten voters support Golkar and Democrats. Voters in DKI tend to support
PDIP, while voters in West Java are spread to Gerindra, PDIP, and PKS.
7
15 15
12
10
0 2
9
2
4
1
8
3
9
2 0
9
12 11
16
8
0
3
11
3
7
2 2 1
14
0 0
6
16
25
5 5
0 0
9
1
7 5
7
3
12
0 0
9
16
18
11
6
0
3
13
2 3
3
6
1
7
2 0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
PKB
Gerindra
PD
I-P
Golk
ar
NasD
em
Garu
da
Berk
ary
a
PKS
Perindo
PPP
PSI
PAN
Hanura
Dem
okra
t
PBB
PKPI
Sumatera Banten DKI West Java
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 54
Party Choice based on Regions (Party QC Weighting)
By region, voters in Central Java + DIY tend to choose PDIP. In East Java, voter support is
more toward PKB and PDIP, while in Bali-Nusa there are more who support PDIP.
15
6
29
10 11
2 0
7
2
6
1
6
2 4
0 0
21
10
20
7
11
1 1 3 3
5 3
5
1
8
0 1
7
10
28
13
8
0
6
4 2 3 3
6
4 5
0 0 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
PKB
Gerindra
PD
I-P
Golk
ar
NasD
em
Garu
da
Berk
ary
a
PKS
Perindo
PPP
PSI
PAN
Hanura
Dem
okra
t
PBB
PKPI
Central Java & DIY East Java Bali Nusa
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 55
Party Choice based on Regions (Party QC Weighting)
By region, voters in Kalimantan mainly support Golkar, Gerinda, and PDIP. In Sulawesi,
voters tend to support Golkar and PDIP. While in Maluku-Papua, voters tend to support
Nasdem and PDIP.
9
16 15 16
7
0
4
8
2
5
1
7
1
7
1 0
3
12
15 15 13
1
3
7 6
3 2
11
1
9
0 0
6
2
20
9
25
0 0
6
9
4 5
2 0
8
0
3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
PKB
Gerindra
PD
I-P
Golk
ar
NasD
em
Garu
da
Berk
ary
a
PKS
Perindo
PPP
PSI
PAN
Hanura
Dem
okra
t
PBB
PKPI
Kalimantan Sulawesi Maluku Papua
Conclusion
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 57
• In general, voters in the 2019 Simultaneous Election were satisfied
with the implementation of democracy and judged the election
this time to be fair.
• The results of the Presidential Election Exit Poll showed that 46.7% of
voters vote for Joko Widodo-Ma'ruf Amin, while 40.1% vote for
Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno. About 13.2% did not answer.
Voters seem to have made their choice long time ago, even more
than a year ago. Voting choice appear to be parallel with the
choice of residents around voters’ neighborhood area.
• This figure reflects a positive evaluation of voters on Joko Widodo,
both satisfaction with work during his presidency, positive image
and more positive feelings for citizens towards Joko Widodo
compared to Prabowo Subianto.
Conclusion
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 58
• Regarding the negative issues that inflict Joko Widodo and
Prabowo Subianto, there were quite a lot who believed the
negative issues, even though the majority did not believe it. The
most trusted thing related to Joko Widodo was the issue of political
campaign promises that were not fulfilled, while related to
Prabowo it is about the issue of the return of the New Order.
• Nearly half of the voters know about the Candidate 01 and 02
grand campaign, and appreciate it with much.
• Television became the main source of news about the election.
Currently the internet is also the source of the news, although not
as much as television. Facebook and Whatsapp are the most
accessed medium as election news sources.
Conclusion
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 59
• The results of the Party Choice Exit Poll showed that nine parties
were chosen by more than 4% of citizens, PDIP was chosen most,
21.2%, then followed by Gerindra 14.3%, Golkar 11.3%, PKB 9.4%,
PKS 9.4%, NasDem 8.2%, Democrats 7.5%, PAN 6.2%, and PPP 4.3%.
Reasons for choosing a party is vary, starting from the interest in
the program promised, then social reasons because of family
influence, the influence of socialization, attention to the poors and
common people and other reasons.
Conclusion
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 60
• Indikator Politik Indonesia make a prediction on the Presidential
vote choice based on voters’ answers about the presidential vote
response and answers to other questions. Exit Poll prediction by
taking into account the suitability of respondents who answered
"Don't know / don't answer" with the voter characteristic
background of each candidate.
• The prediction of Exit Poll shows that Joko Widodo - Ma'ruf Amin
was chosen by around 54.4%, while Prabowo Subianto - Sandiaga
Uno was chosen 45.6%. That is, of the 13.2% who did not answer,
an estimated 7.7% voted for Joko Widodo-Ma'ruf Amin, while 5.5%
were expected to vote for Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno.
Conclusion
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 61
• The Jokowi-Ma'ruf support base mainly comes from the older
millennial age group and generation above, lower education and
income level group, the NU base, non-Islamic voters, ethnic
Javanese voters, Bataks, and others, especially in the rural area,
and in Central Java + DIY, East Java, Bali + Nusa Tenggara,
Sulawesi, and Maluku Papua. Based on the party voters support,
the supporting party base looked solid, especially PDIP, PSI, PKB,
Nasdem. Then Perindo, Golkar, Hanura and PPP.
• While Prabowo-Sandi's support base mainly comes from young
millennials, higher education and income level group,
Muhammadiyah and other non-affiliated organizations, ethnic
Sundanese, Madurese, Betawi, Minang. Especially in Sumatera,
Banten, and quite a lot in West Java. Supporting parties look solid
in supporting Prabowo-Sandi, except for Berkarya and Demokrat
voters who are still quite divided in its support base leaking toward
Jokowi-Ma'ruf.
Exit Poll Pemilu 2019 | 63
PRESIDENTIAL VOTE PREDICTION MODEL Y = X_sex + Usia + X_jawa + X_sunda + X_agama + X_dekot + Pendidikan + Pendapatan +
X_Idxyakin + X_Idxingin + X_pilihanwarga + X_Idxsuka + X_Idxcitra + X_kinerja + X_partai_01 + X_Idxisu + X_pilgubDKI + X_Idxakbar + X_nilaiIslam + X_agamapolitik + X_debat5
Keterangan Model:
Y = Dependent Variable (1= Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin; 0=Prabowo-Sandi)
Independent Variable
1. X_sex = Gender 2. Usia
3. X_jawa (1=javanese; 0=lainnya) 4. X_sunda (1=sundanese; 0=lainnya)
5. X_agama (1=islam; 0=others) 6. X_dekot (1=rural; 0=urban)
7. Pendidikan 8. Pendapatan
9. X_Idxyakin (confidence index for ability to lead of candidate pairs, score 0-10)
10. X_Idxingin (the index of desire for the candidate to be elected, score 0-10)
11. X_pilihanwarga (neighborhoodchoice, score 1-3)
12. X_Idxsuka ( likability index for candidates, score 1-5)
13. X_Idxcitra (personal image index, score 1-5)
14. X_kinerja (presidential approval rating, score 1-5)
15. X_partai_01 (1=coalition party 01; 0=others)
16. X_Idxisu (issues index of candidates, score 1-3)
17. X_pilgubDKI (voting choice in DKI election, score 1-3)
18. X_Idxakbar (likability index of grand campaign in GBK, score 1-5)
19. X_nilaiIslam (score 1-5)
20. X_agamapolitik (score 1-5)
21. X_debat5 (score 1-3)
