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2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise...

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For Professional Clients only January 2019 2019 India Investment Outlook A lotus in the mucky pond Tushar Pradhan, Chief Investment Officer
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Page 1: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

For Professional Clients only

January 2019

2019 India Investment OutlookA lotus in the mucky pond

Tushar Pradhan, Chief Investment Officer

Page 2: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

2

Looking back at 2018…

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management – December 2018

Key events and performance of the Indian market (S&P BSE Sensex and S&P BSE 500 Index) in CY 2018,

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performance

2018 – India markets and events affected positively or negatively

12000

12500

13000

13500

14000

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500

Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

29000

30000

31000

32000

33000

34000

35000

36000

37000

38000

39000

40000

S&P BSE SENSEX S&P BSE 500

US-China trade tensionsNorth Korea tensions

LTCG in

equities

MF

reclassification

PNB scam RBI

governors

resignation

IL&FS

liquidity

issue

Inflation fears &

pickup in market

volatility

US rate hike

India GST

1 year

Crude Oil &

INR peaked

Start to crude

oil rise

Start to

INR fall

Opposition wins few

state elections

India launches wordls

biggest health insurance

plan, Ayushman Bharat

Tata steel acquires

Bhushan steel under

the IBC codeGST rates reduced

on 23 items from

18% to 12% and 5%

Broder index S&P BSE500 remains strong relative to Sensex Sensex goes strong relative to broader index S&P BSE 500

Page 3: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

3

A challenging year for asset allocators

Source: Bloomberg – December 2018, * Real Estate Prices - Bloomberg, ̂as at Mar 2018, 5 years average annual returns, Mutual Funds category average for 2018 for G-Sec funds, Corp Bond Funds, Credit Risk

Funds, Dynamic Bond Funds, Low – Short Duration Funds is included. Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risk. Read all

scheme related documents carefully

Asset class performance in 2018

6.06.9

5.7 5.2 5.57.0

6.0 6.3

-15.7

-26.2

6.7 6.9

11.4

9.8

8.0 8.4 8.67.9 7.8

11.2

17.6

13.3

10.1

1.3

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

G-Sec Funds(Short /Mediumduration)

G-Sec Funds(Long

duration)

CorporateBond Funds

Credit RiskFunds

DynamicBond Funds

Low DurationFunds

Short DurationFunds

BSE Sensex S&P BSEMidcap

S&P BSESmall Cap 250

Real EstatePrices India * ^

Gold India

% Returns of Asset Classes - India

2018 5 Years (Annualised avg.)

Page 4: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

4

The journey: India Markets

India entered a negative sentiment loop during 2018

How India market dynamics changed in 2018India among EM’s - equity returns during 2018

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, Nov 2018. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

Global liquidity and trade

concerns and neutral India

budget impact

India elections

- uncertainty

?

Some recovery in rupee and

correction in oil prices

India state election results

effect, sell-off in EMs

including India continues

due to global & local factors

Fall in rupee, rising oil prices,

debt markets too affected

GST effects, Sell off in

Indian equities driven by

small and mid capsShift in sentiment due to

global trade tensions,

demonetisation, India GST

implementation

Page 5: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

5

74.4

70.6

56.0

58.0

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

Jan

-18

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-18

Ap

r-18

Ma

y-1

8

Jun

-18

Jul-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oct-

18

Nov-1

8

Dec-1

8

INR vs USD

Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee

Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India, December 2018. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

66.6

62.6

86.3

58.7

63.5

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

Jan

-18

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-18

Ap

r-18

Ma

y-1

8

Jun

-18

Jul-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oct-

18

Nov-1

8

Dec-1

8

Oil price (USD per barrel)

Post peak oil correction

In 2018, Oil prices moved up sharply by ~30%, while Rupee corrected sharply by ~17% in the first three quarters causing

significant increase in the Current Account Deficit

Post peak INR recovery

Page 6: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

6

But it’s not all bad news…

Corporate profits coming back

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India, December 2018. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

India - Equity earnings (Sensex EPS) holding versus prices

Page 7: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

7

But it’s not all bad news…

Global corporate profits remain strong as well

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, November 2018. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

Any views expressed were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. While any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and not guaranteed in any way. HSBC

Global Asset Management (UK) Limited accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target.

Equity Return Decomposition - Global

Page 8: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

8

1.5 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.5

17.1

-0.3

2.9

16.3

5.97.9

13.0

-5.3

-2.1

11.7

0.7

3.3

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CYTD 2014-2018 (annual)

Dividend Yield Multiple Expansion Earnings Growth Total Returns

India - Equity returns decomposition

Source: Bloomberg, December 2018

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performance

Any views expressed were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. While any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and not guaranteed in any way. HSBC

Global Asset Management , India accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target.

Sensex - Earnings, Multiple, Dividend Yield & Returns

Equity Return Decomposition - India

Page 9: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

9

India – earnings coming back

Source: Bloomberg, MOSL, data as of September 2018

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performance,

Sensex PAT Growth (YoY)

Sensex PAT growth at ~11% in the second quarter of FY19

-5

10

17

12

22

7

-7-9

1 1 1

7

-6 -6

-2 -1

1

911

-1-2

11

22

39

1QFY14

2QFY14

3QFY14

4QFY14

1QFY15

2QFY15

3QFY15

4QFY15

1QFY16

2QFY16

3QFY16

4QFY16

1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17

4QFY17

1QFY18

2QFY18

3QFY18

4QFY18

1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

Page 10: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

10

Domestic MF Equity Inflows remain healthy

Source: Bloomberg, December 2018

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performance

-4.9

10.2

5.3

14.0

15.9

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

CY

14

CY

15

CY

16

CY

17

CY

18Y

TD

(USD bn)

CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18YTD

Mutual fund inflows

Page 11: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

11

Equity vs Debt FII Inflows

Source: Bloomberg, Dec 2018

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performance

16.2

3.3 2.9

7.7

-4.9

26.3

7.6

-6.5

22.9

-7.6

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

CY

14

CY

15

CY

16

CY

17

CY

18Y

TD

(USD bn)

FII Equity FII Debt

Net FII inflows remained negative for the CYTD18

Page 12: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

12

Index of Industrial Production - IIP

Source: Bloomberg, Trend of IIP growth, As at October 2018, Past performance is not indicative of future performance

IIP growth showing signs of steady recovery

3.73.5

4.85.2

2.9

3.9

4.7

8.3

5.4

3.5

4.3

0.3

7.4

4

1.8

32.4

0.7

1.8

11.3

3.7

2.2

9

0.8

3.1

4

7.2

5.2

6

7.3

8

4.54

5

4.2

5.1

2.4

3.5

1.2

4.4

3.22.9

-0.3

1

4.8

4.1

1.8

8.5

7.37.56.9

5.3

4.5

3.8

76.5

4.74.5

8.1

-6

-1

4

9

14

Nov-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Jul-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Jul-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

Jul-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan

-17

Ma

r-17

Ma

y-1

7

Jul-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan

-18

Ma

r-18

Ma

y-1

8

Jul-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) new series data

Page 13: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

13

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 12Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y

Dec-18 Aug-17

Indian bond market yields and interest rates

Source: Bloomberg, Other data as at December 2018, Past performance is not indicative of future performance

Indian government yield curve

6.5

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Ap

r-07

Oct-

07

Ap

r-08

Oct-

08

Ap

r-09

Oct-

09

Ap

r-10

Oct-

10

Ap

r-11

Oct-

11

Ap

r-12

Oct-

12

Ap

r-13

Oct-

13

Ap

r-14

Oct-

14

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Ap

r-16

Oct-

16

Ap

r-17

Oct-

17

Ap

r-18

Oct-

18

Repo Rate (%)

Interest rates have moved up in the year but further rate hikes unlikely

Page 14: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

14

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Ma

r-09

Jun

-09

Se

p-0

9

Dec-0

9

Ma

r-10

Jun

-10

Se

p-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Jun

-11

Se

p-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Jun

-12

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Jun

-13

Se

p-1

3

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-14

Jun

-14

Se

p-1

4

Dec-1

4

Ma

r-15

Jun

-15

Se

p-1

5

Dec-1

5

Ma

r-16

Jun

-16

Se

p-1

6

Dec-1

6

Ma

r-17

Jun

-17

Se

p-1

7

Dec-1

7

Ma

r-18

Jun

-18

Se

p-1

8

Current Account Deficit

Bloomberg, Data as at September 2018, Past performance is not indicative of future performance

CAD (% of GDP)

CAD

Page 15: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

15

Inflation target achievable

Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, HSBC, November 2018, Past performance is not indicative of future performance

RBI target: 4% +/- 2%

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Ap

r-13

Jun

-13

Au

g-1

3

Oct-

13

Dec-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

4

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Au

g-1

5

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ap

r-16

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Oct-

16

Dec-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ap

r-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct-

17

Dec-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ap

r-18

Jun

-18

Au

g-1

8

Oct-

18

CPI & WPI Inflation (%)

WPI CPI RBI target range 6% RBI target range 2% Average

RBI’s inflation target within range

Page 16: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

16

Yields, policy rate and inflation

Source: Bloomberg, data as at November 2018, Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performance

1.46

3.31

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Jan

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Jan

-17

Ma

y-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Jan

-18

Ma

y-1

8

Se

p-1

8

CPI Inflation (%)

CPI Inflation

6.5

7.6

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Ma

y-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Jan

-11

Ma

y-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Jan

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Jan

-17

Ma

y-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Jan

-18

Ma

y-1

8

Se

p-1

8

10 year G- Sec vs Repo Rate (%)

Repo 10 Year yield (L1)

Inflation cools down as oil prices came down sharply from multiyear peak

Page 17: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

17

GST collections slightly off from the target of Rs. 1 lakh Cr

Source: Bloomberg, Data as at November 2018, Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performance

GST collections for YTD 2018 averaged at Rs. 94047 Cr

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct-

17

Nov-1

7

Dec-1

7

Jan

-18

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-18

Ap

r-18

Ma

y-1

8

Jun

-18

Jul-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oct-

18

Nov-1

8

GST collection (Rs Cr)

Average of Rs.94047 Cr

for YTD 2018

Page 18: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

18

Reforms to create a path for the future growth

Source: Yes Bank, Data in this report has been sourced from CEIC, Bloomberg, GOI Budget Documents & Economic Survey, CGA, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, IMD, RBI, IMF, and YES BANK Limited

Governments reform Status

GST Complete

Diesel pricing reregulation Complete

Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code Complete

Rs83,000 Cr have been saved (via DBT) in past 4 years by removing fictitious claims Complete

Reforms 2014 - 2018

Page 19: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

19

What to expect in 2019

Page 20: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

20

India – earnings coming back

Source: Bloomberg, MOSL, data as of September 2018

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performance,

30

26

1719

2523

-7

-15

-25

-21

20

44

2627

22

-2

12

15

6

29

14

4

8

0

-5

10

17

12

22

7

-7-9

1 1 1

7

-6 -6

-2-1

1

911

-1

-2

11

22

39

1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3QE

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Average:7.9

Sensex PAT Growth (YoY)

Sensex PAT growth at an average of ~7.9 % since FY08

Page 21: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

21

Valuations – Sensex

Source: Bloomberg, data as at December 2018

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performance,

Sensex Price to earnings (PE) Vs Price to book (PB)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0

15.0

17.0

19.0

21.0

23.0

25.0

Jan

-07

Ap

r-07

Jul-0

7

Oct-

07

Jan

-08

Ap

r-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-

08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-

09

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Jul-1

0

Oct-

10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-1

1

Oct-

11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-1

2

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-1

3

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-1

4

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Jul-1

5

Oct-

15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-16

Jul-1

6

Oct-

16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7

Oct-

17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8

Oct-

18

SENSEX PE (RHS) SENSEX PB (LHS)

Page 22: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

22

MSCI India Vs MSCI EM

Source: Bloomberg, data as at December 2018, Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performance

MSCI India PE Vs EM (against historical averages)

5

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-0

5

Au

g-0

5

Nov-0

5

Fe

b-0

6

Ma

y-0

6

Au

g-0

6

Nov-0

6

Fe

b-0

7

Ma

y-0

7

Au

g-0

7

Nov-0

7

Fe

b-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Au

g-0

8

Nov-0

8

Fe

b-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Nov-0

9

Fe

b-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Au

g-1

0

Nov-1

0

Fe

b-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

Nov-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Nov-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

Nov-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Nov-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Nov-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

Nov-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

Nov-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Nov-1

8

MSCI India PE vs EM premium with historical averages

MSCI India PE MSCI EM PE MSCI India PE Avg. MSCI EM PE Avg.

Page 23: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

23

MSCI India Vs MSCI EM

Source: Bloomberg, data as of December 2018, Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performance

MSCI India PE premium Vs EM (with historical average)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Jan

-07

Ap

r-07

Jul-0

7

Oct-

07

Jan

-08

Ap

r-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-

08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-

09

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Jul-1

0

Oct-

10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-1

1

Oct-

11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-1

2

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-1

3

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-1

4

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Jul-1

5

Oct-

15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-16

Jul-1

6

Oct-

16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7

Oct-

17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8

Oct-

18

MSCI India PE vs EM premium with historical averages

PE - Premium to EM (%) Avg. PE -Premium to EM %

Page 24: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

24

Valuations

Source: MOSL, data as at September 2018, Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performance

103.0

54.8

95.2

87.9

71.1

64.266.2

81.1

68.7

79.8

84.9

75.9

FY

08

FY

09

FY

10

FY

11

FY

12

FY

13

FY

14

FY

15

FY

16

FY

17

FY

18

FY

19

E

Average of 78% for the period

India Market cap to GDP (%)

Page 25: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

25

-8.0

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18

India Trailing PB - Cyclicals less defensives

Cyclicals’ valuations continued to remain in attractive zone

Global Financial Crisis

Taper tantrums

Source: MSCI, Credit Suisse, as at November 2018 Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performance

MSCI India cyclicals less defensives trailing P/B

Page 26: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

26

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

4,000

7,000

10,000

13,000

16,000

19,000

22,000

25,000

28,000

31,000

34,000

37,000

40,000

43,000

12/0

3

06/0

4

12/0

4

06/0

5

12/0

5

06/0

6

12/0

6

06/0

7

12/0

7

06/0

8

12/0

8

06/0

9

12/0

9

06/1

0

12/1

0

06/1

1

12/1

1

06/1

2

12/1

2

06/1

3

12/1

3

06/1

4

12/1

4

06/1

5

12/1

5

06/1

6

12/1

6

06/1

7

12/1

7

06/1

8

EPS (RHS) Index level (LHS)

Bank

cleanup

Demonetisation

Modi election

win

Backdrop of political uncertainty but India’s equity market moves with earnings

Source: Bloomberg, as at December 2018, Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performance

Sensex index level

NDA loses

Pre financial

crisis peak

UPA wins

Lehman

Brothers

collapses

2G spectrum scam

Coal allocation scam

GST

effective

Bank

recap

PNB fraud

detected

Strong domestic flows into equity

market

Sensex EPS TTM

Default of

key infra

lender

Journey of Sensex and Sensex earnings through the events over the years

Page 27: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

27

Source: Bloomberg, as at December 2018, Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performance

Future looks encouraging

Sensex earnings per share (EPS)

216 236 272

361446

540

720

833 820 834

1,0241,109

1,179

1,334 1,3481,330 1,347 1,378

1,589

2,100

FY

01

FY

02

FY

03

FY

04

FY

05

FY

06

FY

07

FY

08

FY

09

FY

10

FY

11

FY

12

FY

13

FY

14

FY

15

FY

16

FY

17

FY

18

FY

19E

FY

20E

FY01-08: 21%

FY08-18:

5.2% CAGR

FY18-20E: 23.4%

1%

2%

15%FY93-FY18:

12% CAGR

32%

Page 28: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

28

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

0.00

500.00

1,000.00

1,500.00

2,000.00

2,500.00

3,000.00

3,500.00

4,000.00

4,500.00

5,000.001980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

S&

P B

SE

Sen

sex

Ind

ia G

DP

(cu

rren

t $ b

n)

GDP (current $) S&P BSE Sensex

Equity mirrors economic growth in the long term

Source: CRISIL, BSE, IMF The projection contained in this graph is for illustration purposes only and is not guaranteed. Past performance may or may not sustain and does not guarantee future performance.

GDP - Sensex projections

India is on long-term growth trajectory

Page 29: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

29

Risk compass

Key risks to monitor

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, December 2018.

Elections

US rates

Brexit & US …

Earnings

Elections

Oil

High Impact

Low Impact

Positive

surprise

Negative

surprise

Corporate Earnings

higher than expected

Ruling coalition manages

comfortable majority

Oil prices

remain benign

Further political uncertainty

dampens market sentiment

(Brexit, US politics etc.)

Interest rates in US move

higher than expectations

Ruling coalition looses

majority

Page 30: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

30

Disclaimer

This document has been prepared by HSBC Asset Management (India) Private Limited (HSBC) for information purposes only and should not be construed asan offer or solicitation of an offer for purchase of any of the funds of HSBC Mutual Fund. All information contained in this document (including that sourced fromthird parties), is obtained from sources HSBC, the third party believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified and HSBC, the third partymakes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Theinformation and opinions contained within the document are based upon publicly available information and rates of taxation applicable at the time ofpublication, which are subject to change from time to time. Expressions of opinion are those of HSBC only and are subject to change without notice. It does nothave regard to specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. Investorsshould seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies that may have been discussed orrecommended in this report and should understand that the views regarding future prospects may or may not be realized. Neither this document nor the unitsof HSBC Mutual Fund have been registered in any jurisdiction. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted or totally prohibitedand accordingly, persons who come into possession of this document are required to inform themselves about, and to observe, any such restrictions.

© Copyright. HSBC Asset Management (India) Private Limited 2018, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

HSBC Asset Management (India) Private Limited, 16, V.N. Road, Fort, Mumbai-400001 Email: [email protected] | Website: www.assetmanagement.hsbc.com/in

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.

Page 31: 2019 India Investment Outlook - HSBC...Twin shocks for Indian economy - Oil & rupee Crude oil rise and rupee correction in 2018 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, India,

31


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