2020 TRENDS & EMERGING GROWTH POCKETS

December

2020

IRI Leaderboard 18

2020 TRENDS & EMERGING GROWTH POCKETS

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2

Shopping behavioral shifts• E-commerce,

grocery, club and dollar channelsemerged as key winners due to preference for convenience, basket-consolidation, minimal contact and reduced time spent in store.

• Merchandising and promotions were trimmed as retailers focused on social distancing, store cleanliness and safety.

COVID-19 and Associated Economic Fallout Had Substantial Impact on the CPG Demand CurveConsumption Shifts• Reduced mobility resulted in shifts to remote working, online school and streaming/virtual

entertainment, all driving increased demand for at-home food and nonedible consumables in the US and globally.

• Reversing years of on-the-go convenience trends and foodservice capturing most of the food dollar, in-home consumption occasions sent consumers seeking inspiration and variety in food and drink; consumers also gravitated to larger pack sizes, long-shelf-life foods, comfort and indulgent items, as well as cleaning and home storage products.

• The pandemic spurred meal-making, giving fresh foods an 11% sales boost; meat sales, a top-dollar generator, are up 35%.

• Many brands, especially iconic brands, attracted a huge influx of buyers as many took to cooking at home (e.g., Generation X, Millennials)

• Despite an economic bifurcation, consumers of all income levels are driving more growth of premium and super-premium products. Health and wellness and self-care products are also experiencing higher demand.

• Persistent out-of-stocks numbed consumers to price or promotions; they purchased what was available.

• Consumers celebrated holidays and special occasions differently: smaller, virtual gatherings, stretched over a longer period.

https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Changing-Shape-of-the-Demand-Curve-Part-3-6-18-20.pdf


https://indices.iriworldwide.com/covid19/?i=2

https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Demand-Curve-Part-9-Total-Store-Display-9-28-2020-vF.pdf

https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/IRI-COVID-19-Impact-Assessment-4-24-2020.pdf

https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Thought-Leadership-4-3-2020.pdf



https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Impact-Assessment-Millennials-Meat-5-15-20.pdf

https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Center-Store-Thought-Leadership-6-26-2020.pdf


https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/U-S-CPG-Growth-Leaders-TL_aug20.pdf

https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/IRI-TL-Demand-Pockets-Part-1-Premium-Opportunity-11-10-2020-vFF.pdf


https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Demand-Curve-Part-12-Revenue-Management-10-30-2020-vF.pdf

https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Demand-Curve-Part-11-Holidays-10-30-2020-vF.pdf


8 w/e 2/23/20

4 w/e 3/22/20

4 w/e 4/19/20

4 w/e 5/17/20

4 w/e 6/14/20

4 w/e7/12/20

4 w/e 8/9/20

4 w/e 9/6/20

4 w/e 10/4/20

4 w/e 11/1/20

4 w/e11/29/20

Edible

Nonedible

Since March, Reduced Mobility Increased Demand for Food-at-home and Nonedible ConsumablesCPG Edible and Nonedible % chg. vs. Year AgoTotal Omnichannel (MULO + C + Costco + E-commerce)

2

31

1722

15 15 14 12 12 12 121

30

13 168 7 7 6 7 7 9

5

29

918

14 13 12 9 11 13 112

25

611 8 7 6 4 6 8 7

Dollar Sales Volume Sales1

1. Estimated average omnichannel volume change across categories based on price/mix trends in MULO+C. Source: IRI data ending 11/29/20. Omnichannel based on IRI MULO+C POS, IRI eMarket Insights and IRI Consumer Panel for Costco.


Leading Categories of 2020 Reflect Highest Demand for Long-shelf-life Food, Health and Cleaning Products and Comfort Items (e.g., Baking, Candles)2020 Top Growing Categories in Total U.S.Ranked on Dollar Sales % Chg. vs. YA

Category $ % chg.vs. YA

Premixed Cocktails/Coolers 60.4%Cocktail Mixes 38.1%Frozen Seafood 38.0%Asian Food 35.3%Frozen Fruit 33.3%Dry Beans/Vegetables 33.1%Flour/Meal 32.7%Baking Needs 32.7%Frozen Meat 32.5%Breadcrumbs/Batters 32.3%

Category $ % chg. vs. YA

Home Health Care/Kits 160.4%Personal Thermometers 129.4%Household Cleaner Cloths 71.4%Soap 47.2%Bleach 39.3%Household Cleaners 38.9%Gloves 35.4%Candles 33.5%Charcoal 31.8%Sleeping Remedies 27.7%

Source: IRI POS scanner data 2020 to-date ending 12/1/20. Among categories min $250M sales total US MULO+C.Note MULO+C includes brick & mortar sales and e-commerce orders fulfilled by brick & mortar stores (e.g., Store Pickup, Instacart)

Edible Nonedible

Categories in alcohol, frozen and shelf-stable meals, as well as baking have sustained high growth since March.

Home health care, home cleaning and less traditional grocery categories like candles grew at the highest rates in 2020.


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Younger Generations Drove More Growth in Baking and Comfort Items While Older Cohorts Bought More Cooking Ingredients and Cleaning Products2020 Top Growing Categories by Generation Cohorts Ranked on $ per 1000 HH % Chg. vs. YA, Grocery ChannelAmong categories where generation consumes average or more

Source: IRI Shopper Loyalty database, based on sample of 65M households and 6M static Grocery householdsNote: Categories filtered above 80 index to All HH.

Gen Z Millennials Gen X Boomers Seniors

Edib

le

Premixed Cocktails 81% Premixed Cocktails 80% Premixed Cocktails 75% Flour/Meal 39% Seafood - Fz 33%

Seafood - Fz 42% Seafood - Fz 41% Flour/Meal 42% Meat - Rfg 38% Flour/Meal 30%

Spices/Seasonings 37% Flour/Meal 40% Seafood - Fz 39% Seafood - Fz 33% Instant Potatoes 29%

Flour/Meal 37% Meat - Rfg 37% Spices/Seasonings 35% Dough/Biscuit Dough - Rfg 33% Vegetables - Ss 24%

Meat - Rfg 35% Dough/Biscuit Dough - Rfg 37% Meat - Rfg 35% Instant Potatoes 30% Side Dishes - Rfg 24%

Non

edib

le

Home Health Care/Kits 586% Home Health

Care/Kits 552% Home Health Care/Kits 600% Home Health

Care/Kits 491% Home Health Care/Kits 369%

Soap 46% Soap 47% Soap 49% Household Cleaner Cloths 61% Moist Towelettes 36%

Moist Towelettes 43% Moist Towelettes 40% Household Cleaner Cloths 38% Soap 56% Gloves 26%

Candles 38% Charcoal 37% Moist Towelettes 38% Moist Towelettes 45% Household Cleaner 21%

Household Cleaner Cloths 36% Household Cleaner 35% Household Cleaner 35% Household Cleaner 31% Sleeping Remedies 20%


Fresh Meat, Immune-Strengthening Fruit and Garlic Led Growth in the Fresh Aisle2020 Top Growing Categories in Total U.S.Ranked on Dollar Sales % Chg. vs. YA

Source: IRI POS fresh perimeter 2020 to-date ending 12/1/20. Among categories min $250M sales total US MULO+C.Note MULO+C includes brick & mortar sales and e-commerce orders fulfilled by brick & mortar stores (e.g., Store Pickup, Instacart)

Sales of self-serve prepared foods declined as stations closed for safety precautions.

Stock photo ID:184271529

Category $ % chg.vs. YA

Meat 20.1%

Deli Cheese 11.7%

Produce 11.5%

Deli Meat 9.1%

Floral 2.3%

Bakery -5.9%

Deli Prepared -16.4%

Category $ % chg. vs. YA

Shellfish 41.1%

Beef Rib 33.7%

Oranges 32.0%Cherries 32.0%Garlic 31.3%Limes 27.8%Beef Loin 27.3%Pork Shoulder 26.4%Boneless Smoked Ham 26.2%Brisket 25.7%

Fresh Departments Fresh Categories


More frequent out-of-stocks combined with

less time spent in store pushed buyers to

different brands and/or known brand names that

were available.

Large brands gained an average of 1.9 M new

buyers, medium-sized brands gained 1.3 M,

and small brands gained 0.7 M new buyers.

Large Medium Small

Angel Soft 13.2 M 34% Hunt’s 8.4 M 57% Germ X 20.2 M 19%

Lysol 12.1 M 56% Bimbo 7.8 M 34% Microban 8.9 M 7%

Charmin 11.2 M 47% Northern 6.9 M 22% Kinder 8.7 M 20%

Bounty 9.3 M 51% Bertolli 6.8 M 32% Kikkoman 8.1 M 33%

Scott 9.2 M 38% Barilla 6.8 M 59% Morton 8.1 M 45%

Cottonelle 8.8 M 31% Dial 6.2 M 40% Softsoap 8.0 M 40%

Tylenol 8.0 M 34% Truly Hard Seltzer 5.4 M 6% Libby’s 7.4 M 42%

Goya 8.0 M 35% Prego 5.4 M 40% Sparkle 7.1 M 22%

Land O’Lakes 7.2 M 42% CeraVe 5.0 M 12% Good Cook 6.7 M 27%

Clorox 7.4 M 68% Old El Paso 5.3 M 46% Sweet Baby Ray’s 6.8 M 43%

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Many Brands Attracted a Large Influx of New Buyers, Particularly in High-Demand Categories2020 CPG Top Growing Brands by New Buyers GainedRanked by Number of Households Buying Chg. vs. YA; Latest Full Year HH penetration (% of HHs) Shown

Source: IRI Consumer Panel All Outlets 52W ending 12/1/20 vs. YA. Note: Based on syndicated Brand Franchise definition. Large > $1 B total CPG MULO+C sales, Medium >$500M, Small>$100M.

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EdibleNonedible


Large Medium Small

White Claw Hard Seltzer 145% Truly Hard Seltzer 614% Puff 17886%

Lysol 73% CeraVe 61% Microban 14463%

Bodyarmor 44% Vuse 54% Germ X 1037%

Clorox 36% Blue 35% ZYN 196%

Dawn 34% Tito’s 35% Dot’s Homestyle Pretzels 176%

Goya 33% Kiss 33% GREENIES 158%

Cottonelle 30% BelGioioso 33% Two Good 118%

Ben & Jerry’s 28% Kingsford 31% Beyond Meat 118%

Mission 27% Red Baron 31% Herbal Essences 110%

Tylenol 27% Tillamook 30% Il Conte Stella Rosa 106%

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In Dollar Growth, Leading 2020 Brands Reflect Both COVID-19 Winners and Continued Growth of Top Trends2020 CPG Top Growing Brands by Dollar GrowthRanked by Dollar Sales % Chg. vs. YA

COVID-19 demand drove growth of

leading brands in cleaning, OTC, paper products,

vitamins and self-care.

Demand for trending products such as hard

seltzer, electrolyte beverages and newer better-for-you brands expands along with increased at-home

demand.

Source: IRI Consumer Panel All Outlets 52W ending 12/1/20 vs. YA. Note: Based on syndicated Brand Franchise definition. Large > $1 B total CPG MULO+C sales, Medium >$500M, Small>$100M.

1

2

Brands continuing strong trends from 2019


Fastest Growing Brands Were Consistent Among Most Generations Except Seniors 2020 Top Growing Brands by Generation Cohorts and Brand SizeRanked on $ per 1000 HH % Chg. vs. YAAmong brands where generation consumes average or more

Gen Z Millennials Gen X Boomers Seniors1. VPX 118% VPX 118% VPX 132% White Claw Hard Seltzer 104% Angel Soft 37%

2. White Claw Hard Seltzer 105% White Claw Hard Seltzer 100% White Claw Hard Seltzer 101% Goya 49% Jimmy Dean 35%

3. Bodyarmor 68% Bodyarmor 74% Bodyarmor 59% Mission 34% Dawn 28%

4. Goya 43% Goya 44% Goya 47% Pillsbury 34% Fritos 23%

5. Pillsbury 36% Tyson 41% Pillsbury 36% Angel Soft 32% Marie Callender’s 21%

1. Truly Hard Seltzer 327% Truly Hard Seltzer 313% Truly Hard Seltzer 315% Tillamook 193% Prairie Farms 159%

2. Tillamook 191% Tillamook 175% Tillamook 173% Prairie Farms 124% Bimbo 40%

3. Prairie Farms 100% Prairie Farms 121% Prairie Farms 127% Premier 58% John Morrell 35%

4. Premier 64% Premier 60% Butterball 57% Butterball 56% Barefoot 29%

5. Butterball 54% Barcel 59% Premier 54% Bimbo 40% A&W 28%

1. Microban 15001% Germ-X 67474% Germ-X 83283% Germ-X 60680% GREENIES 129%

2. Dot’s Pretzels 4746% Microban 14820% Microban 13467% Microban 19185% Swaggerty’s 126%

3. Japanese Food Express 2880% Dot’s Pretzels 4420% Dot’s Pretzels 4730% Dot’s Pretzels 4553% Pictsweet 62%

4. Harry’s 755% Japanese Food Express 2751% Japanese Food Express 2681% Japanese Food Express 2658% Prevagen 56%

5. Il Conte Stella Rosa 329% Harry’s 656% Harry’s 720% Harry’s 647% Nature’s Truth 56%

Source: IRI Shopper Loyalty database, based on sample of 65M households and 6M static Grocery householdsNote: Large Brands > $1B Total store sales, Medium >$500M, Small>$100M; Categories filtered above 80 index to All HH.

Large

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Medium

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Small

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Income Cohorts Also Saw Similar Leading Brands in 2020Top Growing Brands by Income Cohorts and Brand SizeRanked on $ per 1000 HH % Chg. vs. YAAmong brands where cohort consumes average or more

Low Income Middle Income High IncomeVPX 134% VPX 124% VPX 142%Bodyarmor 82% White Claw Hard Seltzer 101% White Claw Hard Seltzer 109%Goya 41% Bodyarmor 62% Bodyarmor 59%Jimmy Dean 39% Goya 47% Goya 56%Red Bull 38% Pillsbury 35% Tyson 42%Prairie Farms 170% Truly Hard Seltzer 316% Truly Hard Seltzer 320%Barcel 57% Tillamook 192% Tillamook 157%Butterball 51% Prairie Farms 125% Prairie Farms 104%Bimbo 41% Premier 60% Butterball 72%Barefoot 36% Barcel 53% Barcel 60%Germ-X 136232% Germ-X 73269% Germ-X 47206%Microban 25512% Microban 15146% Microban 13517%Japanese Food Express 3136% Dot’s Homestyle Pretzels 4618% Dot’s Homestyle Pretzels 4908%Il Conte Stella Rosa 377% Japanese Food Express 2719% Japanese Food Express 2446%Budget Saver 279% Harry’s 687% Harry’s 649%

Source: IRI Shopper Loyalty database, based on sample of 65M households and 6M static Grocery householdsNote: Large Brands > $1B Total store sales, Medium >$500M, Small>$100M; Categories filtered above 80 index to All HH.

Large

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Small

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Large (>$5.5B) Medium ($1-5B) Small ($100M-1B)

Tyson Foods $8.7 B 20% Mark Anthony Brands $2.6 B 86% Puff E Cig $224 M 17889%

Clorox $5.7 B 19% Boston Beer $1.8 B 53% Vi Jon Labs $320 M 1291%

Reckitt Benckiser $5.6 B 16% Bodyarmor Nutrition $1.0 B 42% Dots Homestyle Pretzels $134 M 178%

Grupo Bimbo $7.2 B 15% Goya Foods $ 1.1 B 35% Beyond Meat $204 M 115%

Conagra Brands $12.6 B 15% CJ Foods $1.7 B 30% Il Conte Imp $340 M 110%

Constellation Brands $7.7 B 15% Swedish Match $1.5 B 29% Jasper Wyman & Son $131 M 84%

General Mills $13.7 B 15% McCormick & Co $3.5 B 25% Vital Farms $157 M 68%

Kraft Heinz $22.1 B 12% Johnsonville Sausage $1.2 B 24% Quincy Bioscience $200 M 68%

Campbell Soup $9.8 B 12% Land O’Lakes $1.3 B 23% Dr. Bronner’s Magic Soaps $101 M 61%

Procter & Gamble $31.2 B 11% Koch Ind $4.0 B 23% George DeLallo Co Inc $121 M 61%

High Demand Categories, Continued Trends and Category Leadership Drove Double- to Triple-Digit Growth in Many Established and Emerging Manufacturers2020 Top Growing Manufacturers Ranked by Measured Channels L52 Week Sales, Sales % Change vs. YA, Table Ranked by Sales % Chg. vs. YA

Source: IRI POS MULO+C data 2020 ending 12/1/2020 vs. YA. Note: Large Manufacturers > $5.5 B total CPG MULO+C sales, Medium >$1 B, Small>$100M.

Leading manufacturers drove share in both high and lower demand

categories.

High demand for shelf-stable meals, frozen

foods, baking, cleaning products and home health care drove high growth in

the portfolios of many companies

At the same time, in-trend products such as hard

seltzer continue to drive growth for some

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EdibleNonedible


Premium and Super-Premium Consumables Were in Greater Demand in 2020CPG Price Tier Growth by Channel / $ Share in Largest Categories1

Pre-COVID-1952 WE 2/23/20

26 WE10/4/20

Ppt. Chg. vs. YA

Ppt. Chg. vs. YA

Pre-COVID-1952 WE 2/23/20

26 WE10/4/20

Ppt. Chg. vs. YA

Ppt. Chg. vs. YA

Super Premium

Premium

Mainstream

Value

PrivateLabel 16.6% 15.8%

9.0% 8.6%

47.9% 47.9%

10.2% 10.7%

16.3% 17.0%

19.3% 19.4%

10.7% 9.9%

46.6% 45.9%

10.2% 10.9%

13.3% 13.8%

GROCERY MULO xGROCERY

+1.0

+0.3

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

+0.5

+0.3

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

+0.6

0.0

-1.2

-0.2

+0.8

+1.0

+0.7

-1.2

-0.5

+0.1

1. Top 100 edible & nonedible Grocery CPG categories, top 40 categories for MULO xGrocery. Price tier = avg price per volume vs. subcategory. Super Premium = >+50% above subcategory avg, Premium = +25% to +50%, Mainstream = -25% to +25%, Value = <-25%. PL includes all price tiers under retailer private brands.

Note: Similar trends for Edible and Nonedible categories. MULO xGrocery includes Mass, Club, Drug, Dollar and DeCA channels. Source: IRI POS data.


Premiumization Contributed to Price Growth in Many CategoriesDecomposition of Price per Volume % Change vs. YAGrocery Channel / 26 WE 10/4/20

2.3%

1.6%

2.8%

2.5%

2.9%

1.8%

0.6%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.1%

1.4%

5.0%

4.7%

4.4%

3.7%

5.6%

5.1%

4.3%

4.0%

3.9%

2.1%

11.4%

6.3%

4.2%

4.7%

4.9%

4.0%

5.3%

4.4%

3.6%

2.9%

3.6%

Dish Detergent

9.9%

15.1%

Luncheon Meats

BBQ Sauce

Spices / Seasonings

9.0%

Frozen Meat

Rice

IncreasedShelf Price

Spaghetti Sauce

11.4%

Reduction in Promotion

Cups and Plates

Sports Drinks

Ice Cream

6.8%Bottled Water

Mix Shift / Premiumization

8.4%

12.9%

11.6%

11.5%

11.5%

11.0%

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES

Total Price / Volume Change

Source: IRI POS data ending 10/4/20. IRI Strategic Analytics

Note: Shelf Price refers to changes in everyday price at item level. Promotions includes promotion frequency and depth (driven by frequency). Mix shift refers to difference in product mix vs. YA, driven by shifts to more premium brands (positive effect) countering shift to larger pack sizes (negative effect).


Many 2020 Product Launches Reflect Premium PositioningNew Brands/Line Extensions Launched in 2020

AHA Water Cheetos Mac and Cheese

Mountain Dew Zero Sugar

Bud Light Seltzer

Life Cuisine Ritz Crispers Simply Almond Häagen-DazsHeaven

Source: IRI POS, YTD WE Nov-29, MULO+C, Edible & Nonedible, products launched in 2020; evaluated at the brand/line extension level. Dollar Sales >$10,000. IRI Consulting Analysis.

Wipe Out! Colgate Optic White Renewal

Advil Dual Action

Tide Plus Downy

Air Wick Botanica

Herbal Essences Color Me Happy

Examples


38%

32%

29%

27%

27%

26%

25%

23%

23%

22%

Edible NonedibleContains Psyllium Husk Fiber (Fresh Bread & Rolls, Frozen Pizza)

Cruelty Free (Soap, Shampoo & Conditioners)

Contains Branched Chain Amino Acids(Predominantly in Energy Drinks)

Bleach Free (Household Cleaners, Dish Detergent, Laundry Care)

Wild Caught (Seafood) Chloroflurocarbon Free (Household Cleaners, Air Fresheners, Pest Control)

100% Grass Fed (Meat, Milk) Contains Lavender Oil (Soap, Bath Products, Skin Care)

Raw (Seafood, Honey/Jams, Dough) Contains Essential Oil (Air Fresheners, Soap, bath products)

Contains Seitan Protein (Frozen Meat, Poultry and Frozen Dinners)

Immune Support (Vitamins, Cough Drops, Weight Control)

Contains Pea Protein (Frozen Vegetables and Meat)

Contains Sleep Health Claim (Sleeping remedies, vitamins)

Farm Raised Biobased product (Laundry and Dish Detergent)

Humane (Seafood, Fresh Eggs and Poultry) Contains Turmeric (Pet Food, Weight Control)

Filler Free (Frankfurters and Processed Poultry)

Contains Electrolyte Claim (Vitamins, Weight Control)

Leading Product Claims in 2020 Focused on Product Origins, Sources of Protein, Immunity and Calming Benefits2020 CPG Top 10 Product ClaimsRanked on Dollar Sales % Change vs. YA

Source: IRI POS data 52W ending 12/1/20, MULO+C. Label Insights attributes.Minimum Size threshold >$250M in sales

COVID-19 accelerated the

growth of several product claims.

Among edible products, brands such as Daiya, Quest Nutrition, Reign energy drinks and Vital Farms fresh eggs grew

with these claims.

In nonedible products, brands such as Art

Naturals Hand Sanitizers, Dove Liquid Body Wash, Air Wick and Dr. Teal’s lead in use of leading

claims.

78%

66%

51%

39%

39%

34%

34%

32%

31%

31%

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Within Sustainability, Sustainable Certification, Ethical and Humane Claims Grew Significantly in 2020Top Sustainability Claims – Total Edible Dollar Trend

1.9% 1.9% 2.0%4.5%

-0.3%

4.8%

13.5% 12.1%15.4%

18.2%

7.5%

24.6%

TotalEdible

Recyclable SustainablyCertified

Ethical PostConsumerRecycledMaterial

Humane

3 Yr CAGR CYTD20 Dol % Chg

Plant-based ingredients

Recycled Packaging

B-Corp

Source: IRI Syndicated Categories. Label Insights Attributes. MULO+C CY16-CY19 CYTD20 11/1/20.


Supply Constraints Numbed Consumers to Pricing and Promotion in Highest Demand Categories, and To Some Degree In Rest of Store2020 CPG Categories Change in Everyday Price Sensitivity% Change in Volume From 10% Decrease in Price, Grocery Channel, Level of Out of Stocks

-10

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37

Food & Trash Bags

Salty Snacks

Carbonated Beverages

Meat - Rfg

Poultry - Fz/Rfg

Ice Cream/Sherbet

Bleach

Dinners/Entrees - Fz

Coffee

Toilet Tissue

Cold Cereal

Fresh Bread & RollsShampoo

Eye/Contact Lens Care Product

% out of stock

Cosmetics - Facial

Soap

Cha

nge

in p

rice

sens

itivi

ty v

s. Y

A

Paper Towels

Cups & Plates

Cold/Allergy/Sinus Tablets

Household Cleaner

Pizza - Fz

Foils & Wraps

Air Fresheners

Tea - Bags/Loose

Note: Average PPG price elasticity measured across PPGs (top 80% by volume) in 30 representative categories. Source: IRI Revenue Growth Management proprietary store-level models, 24 weeks ending 10/4/20..

Insensitive

Sensitive

2020 Price Sensitivity level

Less price sensitive vs.

YA

More out of stock

Everyday price elasticity fell —

1.2ppts and -4.2ppts in nonedible categories in

the grocery channel.


ThanksgivingWeek

2020 Holidays Were Celebrated Differently, With Smaller Celebrations and Earlier Buying Patterns

Holiday Total Store Dollar Sales % Lift vs. prior weeks / MULO

Holiday Lift is defined as % difference between average holiday week and period preceding the holidays. Easter 2020 excluded due to timing at the start of the pandemic.Source: IRI POS Data. MULO. IRI Consulting analysis.

0.3%6.1%

1.9%

w/e 11/17/19 w/e 11/24/19 w/e 12/1/19

2.3%

9.3%

-10.6%w/e 11/15/20 w/e 11/22/20 w/e 11/29/20

2019

2020

50

1

5

01

5

11

-2

4

4

-3

1

2-1

2

5

Father’s Day

Valentine’s Day

Super Bowl

Easter

Mother’s Day

Memorial Day

July 4th

Labor Day

Halloween

Thanksgiving

Christmas

0

20192020

Thanksgiving Weekly Sales Lift vs. Prior Weeks / MULO

Family-oriented holidays such as Mother’s/Father’s Day and Thanksgiving exhibited similar sales lift vs. 2019

Sales lift occurred earlier in weeks leading up to holiday with more consumers staying close to home


2019 vs. 2018 2020 vs. 2019Total Omnichannel

MULO Brick & Mortar

Grocery Brick & Mortar

Mass Merch. Brick & Mortar1

Club (Sam’s, BJ’s & Costco)1

Drug1

Convenience

E-commerce2

Dollar1

E-commerce, Grocery, Club and Dollar Channels Emerged as Key Winners Total CPG % Change vs. YA

Note: Omnichannel includes MULO + C + Costco + Dollar + E-comm. 2020 = data ending Nov 29, 2020, forecast for remainder of year. Source: IRI POS, eMarket Insights and Consumer Panel1. 2020 vs. 2019 based on 52 weeks ending Nov 29, 2020 vs. YA. 2. E-commerce data includes e-commerce of MULO and Grocery as well as pure plays. Dollar based on Panel

3.2%

1.3%

1.0%

1.6%

2.6%

-0.5%

3.4%

22.0%

12.7%

15.5%

11.5%

16.3%

3.6%

14.1%

0.9%

2.9%

58.6%

19.3%

Trend vs. 2019 growth


Channels Saw Some Similar Leading Categories and Some Specific Drivers2020 Top Growing CPG Categories by ChannelRanked on Dollar Sales % chg. vs. YA

Grocery Mass Merch. Club Convenience E-commercePremixed Cocktails/Coolers 73% Asian Food 30% Baked Beans/

Canned Bread 83% Premixed Cocktails/Coolers 38% Creams/

Creamers 210%

Cocktail Mixes 38% Pancake Mixes 28% Dry Beans/Vegetables 60% Spirits/Liquor 31% Baking Nuts 157%

Frozen Meat 37% Processed Poultry 27% Shelf Stable

Dinners 52% Dry Fruit Snacks 28% Butter/Butter Blend 142%

Frozen Seafood 37% Frozen Seafood 26% Frozen Potatoes/Onions 45% Frozen Bread/Dough 27% Cottage Cheese 134%

Frozen Fruit 36% Frozen Fruit 25% Soup 44% Ice Cream/Sherbet 24% Tomato

Products 133%

Home Health Care/Kits 459% Home Health

Care/Kits 124% Home Health Care/Kits 1555% Home Health

Care/Kits 13099% Moist Towelettes 132%

Household Cleaner Cloths 98% Household

Cleaner Cloths 49% Bleach 117% Soap 483% Facial Tissue 124%

Soap 59% Soap 32% Flashlights 70% Drinkware 67% Toilet Tissue 116%

Gloves 45% Bleach 32% Outdoor/Lawn Frtlzr 61% Smoking Accessories 21% Soap 114%

Household Cleaner 44% Sleeping Remedies 30% Household Cleaner

Cloths 47% Frozen & Dry Ice 15% Cleaning Tools/Mops/Brooms 105%

Source: IRI POS, Panel and eMarket Insights.Channels filtered on largest categories in 98% of channel sales; IRI Consulting analysis.

Club saw more growth in shelf stable food

categories and other home needs than other channels.

Convenience shifted to late night food

purchases and grew smaller nonedible

categories.

Same as Grocery top 5

Non

edib

ble

3

4

5

1

2

Edib

le

3

4

5

1

2


Edible ShareShare ppt

Chg. Nonedible ShareShare ppt

Chg.

Shelf Stable Coffee Creamer 34.5% Pet Supplies 45.5%

Frozen Meat 31.0% Hair Accessories 51.3%

Shelf Stable Meat 20.3% First Aid Accessories 38.4%

Dried Fruit 23.0% Cosmetics Accessories 40.9%

Drink Mixes 21.4% Shaving Lotion / Men’s Fragrance 53.1%

Tea (Bags/Loose) 39.9% Women’s Fragrances 61.3%

Shelf Stable Vegetables 19.7% Cleanings Tools (Mops/Brooms) 32.3%

Frozen/Refrigerated Poultry 23.9% Baby Feeding/Care/Travel Accessories 62.4%

Canned/Bottled Fruit 17.4% Water Filters/Devices 63.6%

Mustard & Ketchup 14.5% Cosmetics ― Nail 37.6%

15.9

15.7

15.0

14.2

13.9

13.4

11.8

11.5

11.2

10.4

Mostly High E-Commerce Share Categories Saw More Sales Shift to E-commerce in 2020Top 10 E-commerce CategoriesRanked on E-commerce Share in Omnichannel ppt Change vs. YA, 52 Weeks Ending Nov. 29, 2020 vs. YA

Source: E-market Insights, POS and Panel, Omnichannel defined as MULOC+Costco+E-commerceConsidered categories with sales >$500M in Omnichannel and >10% growth in Omnichannel IRI Consulting analysis.

12.8

8.6

8.5

8.4

8.1

8.0

7.7

7.7

6.8

5.9

Categories with highest existing e-commerce

share continued to shift more share to the channel in 2020,

e.g., more shelf stable in edible and pet care and

personal grooming in nonedible.

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

2

Total Edible E-commerce share: 6.5% Total Nonedible E-commerce share: 22.9%


Large Medium Small

1. Monster Goya Foods Vi Jon Labs

2. Grupo Bimbo Bodyarmor Nutrition Lamb Weston

3. Hershey Ocean Spray Cranberry Vtech Electronics

4. Coca-Cola CJ Foods Tillamook County Creamery

5. Conagra Froneri Pompeian

6. Campbell Soup HP Hood Ajinomoto

7. PepsiCo Johnsonville Sausage Freshpet

8. Tyson Foods Gruma Talking Rain

9. Mondelez Flowers Food King Arthur

10. Kraft Heinz Wonderful Foster Farms

Many Manufacturers Saw Triple-Digit Growth in E-commerce Top 10 E-commerce ManufacturersTotal Store, Ranked on Dollar Sales % Change vs. YA, 52 Weeks Ending Nov. 29, 2020 vs. YA

Source: E-market Insights, Large Defined as >$5.B in sales in MULOC, Medium defined as >$1B MULOC Sales, Small Defined as >$100M MULOC SalesConsidered manufacturers with sales >$100M in E-commerce, IRI Consulting analysis.

424%

236%

215%

195%

195%

189%

186%

185%

172%

159%

195%

175%

172%

167%

154%

145%

143%

142%

137%

134%

134%

119%

113%

109%

104%

101%

97%

97%

96%

94%

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

2


Pet Care, Shelf Stable F&B and Personal Grooming Brands Saw the Highest Growth in E-commerceTop 10 E-commerce BrandsTotal Store, Ranked on Dollar Sales Absolute Change vs. YA ($Millions), 52 Weeks Ending Nov. 29, 2020 vs. YA

Source: E-market Insights,Considered manufacturers with sales >$100M in E-commerce, IRI Consulting analysis.

$316

$184

$177

$157

$174

$171

$159

$165

$155

$147

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

2

Purina

Scott

Royal Canin

Starbucks

Hill’s Science Diet

Conair

Dove

Nespresso

Lysol

Olay


The Promotion Environment Shifted in Store, Mostly in High Demand CategoriesIRI CPG Promotional Index / MULO

Promotional index defined as % of dollar sales sold with any merchandising condition, indexed to YA value. Highest and Lowest Categories data ending 52 weeks Nov.29, 2020 vs.YASource: IRI POS data ending 11/29/20

Categories with the Highest Index

Promotional Index

Home Health Care/Kits 139.6Family Planning 103.8Smokeless Tobacco 102.2Outdoor/ Lawn Fertilizer 101.0Refrigerated Lunches 100.5

Categories with the Lowest Index

Promotional Index

Pickles/Relish 59.1Paper Napkins 57.5Toilet Tissue 55.8Paper Towels 49.2Household Cleaner Cloth 43.7

98.0 87.259.6 53.6 60.5 64.0

87.7 87.1 88.9 87.3 88.6

100.7 97.867.7 56.2 60.1 58.6

83.3 78.7 80.2 79.4 77.7

8 WE 2/23/20

4 WE 3/22/20

4 WE4/19/20

4 WE 5/17/20

4 WE 6/14/20

4 WE7/12/20

4 WE8/9/20

4 WE9/6/20

4 WE10/4/20

4 WE11/01/20

4 WE11/29/20

EDIBLE

NONEDIBLE



California and Western Geographies Grew Most2020 Top Growing Geographies for CPG SalesRanked by Dollar Sales % Chg. vs. YA

Source: IRI POS, CY 2020, MULO+C, Total Store; IRI Consulting Analysis

All regions and markets saw

growth in MULO+C.

Metropolitan markets and populous cities such

as New York, Chicago and San Francisco were

below Total Markets average as consumers in these markets had

more pure-play e-commerce options and

greater mobility restrictions.

Regions1. California

2. West

3. Mid-South

4. Great Lakes

5. South Central

6. Northeast

7. Plains

8. Southeast

12.2%

12.1%

11.2%

10.8%

10.3%

10.2%

9.7%

9.6%

Markets1. Charlotte, NC

2. Las Vegas, NV

3. Sacramento, CA

4. San Diego, CA

5. Los Angeles, CA

6. Richmond/Norfolk, VA

7. Harrisburg/Scranton, PA

8. Raleigh/Greensboro, NC

9. Little Rock, AR

10. Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX

15.1%

13.1%

13.1%

12.8%

12.7%

12.6%

11.6%

11.5%

11.4%

11.4%

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1

2



Likely Timeline of Vaccination and Mobility, Key CPG Demand Drivers

Source: RBC Capital Markets; Google Workplace Mobility, Mobility forecasts represent IRI Strategic Analytics POV.

ACTUAL FORECAST

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

3/8/

2020

4/8/

2020

5/8/

2020

6/8/

2020

7/8/

2020

8/8/

2020

9/8/

2020

10/8

/202

011

/8/2

020

12/8

/202

01/

8/20

212/

8/20

213/

8/20

214/

8/20

215/

8/20

216/

8/20

217/

8/20

218/

8/20

219/

8/20

2110

/8/2

021

11/8

/202

112

/8/2

021

1/8/

2022

2/8/

2022

3/8/

2022

4/8/

2022

5/8/

2022

6/8/

2022

DEC’20 – FEB’21 Case counts continue to rise.

Some form of stimulus likely

Phase 1 vaccine distribution (frontline workers)

JUL – SEP 2021Case counts decline

Some of the population is not vaccinated

Need ~75% for herd immunity

MAY – JUN 2021Vaccine becomes available

for everyone

Adoption curve?

Cases continue to decline

SEP 2021+Several months for the side

effects to manifest.

Herd immunity begins.

Consumers begin to resume to some sense of normalcy, though

certain habits are changed at least through the near-term

MAR – APR 2021Case counts begin to decline

Phase 2 vaccine distribution (high-risk persons, early

education, food & agriculture, sanitation, public works, etc.)

Likely Vaccine Adoption Timeline Mobility Forecast ScenariosOptimistic Scenario

Conservative Scenario

Away-from-home consumption will likely improve to ~50% in H2

2021 as mobility increases1

1 ~53% of total food spend was away-from-home in 2019


Sales of Most CPG Categories Will Decline in 2021, Lapping Strong 2020 Gains2021 Will Continue to Have Unprecedented Demand, With Pockets of Growth and Decline vs. 2020

Forecast error range +/- 2%

Note: Omnichannel includes MULO + C + Costco + E-comm. 2020 = data ending 11/8/20, forecast for remainder of year,. E-commerce includes Click and Collect and Pure PlaySource: IRI POS, eMarket Insights and Consumer Panel IRI Strategic Analytics, Proprietary forecasting methodology

2018 2019 2020 2021

+3%

+15% -1 to -5%

June VaccineActual Dec. Vaccine

Total CPG Omnichannel Dollar Sales Actual & Median Forecast

65% of categories will decline 4

1719

2523

84

1

% of CPG Categories by Growth Range in 2021 Forecast


IRI Point of View: 2021 Emerging Growth PocketsAnticipate stickiness in some behaviors as consumers work from home – at least part time – through 2021:

New trends will emerge in 2021:• Consumers will be looking for “right-sized” (smaller) products as they begin to consume more out of home.• Value and private label products will gain traction as increased mobility squeezes consumer budgets.• Grocery and convenience channels will double down on investments in foodservice to capture lost

restaurant sales. • Grocery will continue to expand assortment in nonedibles, while mass merchants and others will

continue to expand in non-CPG to gain share of total consumer wallet spend. • Growth of retailer-specific loyalty/subscription programs is likely to be modest as consumers increase their

spend on other products and services.• Agile, quick responses used during the pandemic will become even more critical to meet evolving consumer

needs and demand occasions, including altering items on the shelf, changing digital messaging, adjusting pricing and trade spend, etc.

• Consumers will value sustainable products even more, a key growth opportunity for brands and retailers.

Consumer• Consumers will continue to shop online; store pick-up adoption

outpaces home delivery. • Stricter hygiene regimens will remain.• Health and wellness, indulgence, premiumization and taste exploration

trends will continue.• As in-stocks improve, consumers will become more price sensitive.• 2020 holidays will likely spark new traditions for subsequent years.

Retail/Manufacturer• Retailers and manufacturers will continue to invest in e-commerce; high levels of

service are a differentiator.• Retailer cleaning protocols adopted during pandemic are now table stakes.• Retailers will continue to reinvent store layouts, build in-store experiences and

invest in contactless payment options. • As in-stocks improve, pricing will become more competitive. • Holidays become an opportunity to promote new traditions, extend the

shopping season.


https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Demand-Curve-Part-10-Convenience-Rebound-10-20-2020-vF.pdf


IRI Point of View: Implications for CPG• Prioritize innovation, revenue management and retail execution, which will replace 2020 priorities of managing

capacity and out-of-stocks.• Focus innovation on attributes that really matter to most valuable consumers. Leverage brand equity to expand

into adjacent categories and make the most of emerging growth pockets. Innovate on packs relevant and tailored to channels (e.g., e-commerce, dollar).

• Optimize revenue management to reflect K-shaped economic recovery (opening price points, value, premium and super premium products). Refine price-pack-channel architecture to capture emerging demand pockets. Track promotional execution and effectiveness to direct investments to maximize returns. Understand the effect of your pricing and promotion on specific shopper segments in order to drive penetration and incremental revenue.

• Partner with winning retailers to ensure execution excellence in-store and online.

• Increase focus on personalized offers, digital media and retailer media networks to attract and retain high-value consumers. Prioritize investments and weigh consumer-centric analytic trade-offs between retail media, trade spend and national media.

• Capture fair share of growth in e-commerce with rapid development of e-commerce range, digital content and search/digital media investments; promote attributes that resonate with target audience.

• Demand planning will play a key role as the vaccine is rolled out, ensuring optimal capacity planning and shipping to the right geographies.


IRI Point of View: Implications for Retail• Focus on driving more profitable in-store shopping while investing in e-commerce, e.g., showcase new

products and attributes that matter to shoppers; create differentiation with unique/exclusive products (e.g., private label, perimeter), prepared meals, etc.

• Evolve assortment to meet emerging needs: expand nonedibles, non-CPG; create marketplaces to serve greater need; balance premium and value, smaller vs. larger pack sizes as mobility increases.

• With increasing price and promotion competition, invest in targeted offers to retain new and valuable shoppers and as demand for at-home consumption softens.

• Define and execute your plan to retain new shoppers and recoup lost shoppers. Prioritize investments, e.g., e-commerce fulfillment, COVID-19-related operational and supply chain costs, to define shopper-centric points of differentiation.

• Demand planning will continue to play a key role as the vaccine is rolled out. This will enable optimal shelf stocking.


Mark ClousePresident and CEO, Campbell Soup CompanyNovember 10, 2020

Stuart AitkenChief Merchant & Marketing Officer, The Kroger Co.September 3, 2020

Vivek SankaranPresident & CEO, Albertsons CompaniesAugust 25, 2020


(click to see full report)IRI COVID-19 IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORTS

COVID-19: THE CHANGING SHAPE OF THE CPG DEMAND CURVE

SPECIAL COVID-19 SERIES: RECESSION PROOF YOUR BUSINESS

COVID-19 EMERGING POINT OF VIEW DISCOVERING POCKETS OF DEMAND


The IRI CPG Demand Index™ provides a standard metric for tracking changes in spending on consumer-packaged goods. U.S. Demand Index™ Forecasts are delivered through a proprietary, fully automated forecasting solution that anticipates consumer demand.Channel Shift Index™ provides a standard metric for tracking changes (migration) in spending on consumer-packaged goods across select channels. The IRI E-Commerce Demand Index™ provides a standard metric for tracking changes in spending on consumer-packaged goods purchased online. Inflation Tracker™ provides the well-known price per unit metric for tracking changes in pricing of consumer-packaged goods. Supply Index™ provides a standard metric for tracking changes in product availability (i.e., in-stock rates) in stores for consumer-packaged goods.Out-of-Stock Levels for Top-Selling Subcategories by Market Area in the U.S.Top U.S. Topics from IRI Social Pulse™

CPG Economic IndicatorsAccess IRI’s industry-standard metrics for consumer product demand and supply during the pandemic, our CPG inflation tracker and the latest data on category trends, out-of-stock levels, consumer sentiment and more.

Demand Index™ U.S. Demand Index™Forecasts

Channel Shift Index™

E-Commerce Demand Index™

Inflation Tracker™ Supply Index™ Out-of-Stock Levels

for SubcategoriesU.S. Topics from IRI Social Pulse™

https://advantage.iriworldwide.com/Engineering/covid19/?i=0


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2020 TRENDS & EMERGING GROWTH POCKETS

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