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Valdosta-Lowndes MPO2040
Socioeconomic Data StudyVLMPO Policy Committee
October 29, 2013
Agenda
• Why?• What?• How?• Results!
Why do you need socioeconomic data?
• The need for transportation improvements • People and jobs create trips• How many?• When?• Where from?• Where to?
• Federal funding• Federal requirements• GDOT regulations
What kind of data?
• Population and employment• Base and existing year data• 2010 base year • Today’s updates
• 2040 horizon year projections• Interim year projections
Planning Data
Transportation• Population and households• Income
• Employment• Service• Retail• Manufacturing• Wholesale
• Student enrollment
Comprehensive planning• Housing• Gender• Age• Race• Educational attainment• Labor force
Required for model
How? LRTP Data and Projection Process
• Base year data• Determine horizon year
control totals• Distribute growth to zones• Traffic analysis zones or TAZs
• Verify and revise• Develop interim year data
Various Population Projections
Horizon Year Population – Lowndes County
Horizon Year Population – Model Area2010 Travel Demand Model Area Population 110,7802040 Travel Demand Model Area Population 154,82040% increase in thirty years
Major Assumptions
• Household and employment growth follow population growth trend• Ratio of jobs to housing in region• Kinds of jobs in region• Service• Retail• Manufacturing• Wholesale
• Growth Areas• Densities• Dwelling units per acre• Jobs per acre
Horizon Year Targets (2040)
County-
wide Population
Travel Demand Model (TDM) Area Variables
TDM Populat
ion
TDM Employment
Manufacturing Employment
Service Employment
Retail Employment
Wholesale
Employment
TDM Househ
olds
Lowndes 149,288 146,302 76,082 5,057 50,025 19,634 1,366 59,472
Berrien 24,514 841 1 0 1 0 0 342
Brooks 17,644 3,720 65 3 44 2 16 1,512
Lanier 13,868 3,959 5 0 1 4 0 1,609
Total 205,314 154,822 76,153 5,060 50,071 19,640 1,382 62,936
VLMPO Travel Demand Model (TDM) Area
TDM Populatio
n
TDM Househol
ds
TDM Total
Employment
Manufacturing
Employment
Service Employm
ent
Retail Employm
ent
Wholesale
Employment
2010 110,780 45,040 54,340 3,610 35,730 14,010 990
2040 154,820 62,940 76,150 5,060 50,070 19,640 1,380
Households and employment follow population growth trend in the region
Developable land by Growth Area
and other parameters
Future population and employment
distributed to zones
Land already developed -or- not suitable for development
Land suitable for development
A
B
D
C
Distribute Growth to Zones
A. Growth Areas within zone boundary
B. Suitable and available for development
C. Developable acres within each Growth Area are assigned jobs or housing
D. Developable acres with access to water or sewer service may be assigned jobs or housing
Population 2010
Population Density 2010
Population Density 2040
Employment Density 2010
Employment Density 2040
Findings
• Identified Growth Areas will accommodate most growth by 2040• Some households assigned to areas zoned residential with existing access to
water or sewer service• Service jobs assigned to areas with existing access to water or sewer service
based on zoning
• Industrial Growth Areas contain more land than will be needed by 2040 for projected manufacturing and wholesale jobs
Recommendations
• Consistent Census boundaries and traffic analysis zone boundaries• Update Census boundaries to reflect real life conditions if applicable• Adjust zone boundaries as needed
• Evaluate Growth Areas during plan update(s)• Evaluate land use scenarios with VLMPO travel demand model• Evaluate policies and development patterns through comprehensive planning
process
• Continue coordination with MAFB and other major employers