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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Wednesday, 21 January 2015
Stocks Covered Today
Ticker Price Target
MERS 202.90 211.00
VFQS 15.15 16.00
QSE Index
Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last 11,862.32 -0.2 11.6
Resistance/Support
Levels 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 12,000 12,250 12,430
Support 11,850 11,600 11,480
QSE Index Commentary
Overview: The QSE Index, although in a tight range, started to show weakening signals. The Index is still below the moving averages. The MACD is below the zero line while its histogram is turning back to the zero line, which is a bearish indication. The RSI is in the neutral area. On the intraday chart, it shows that the MACD, the Histogram, and the RSI are all turning negative. It is worth noting that the Index, on the intraday chart, created a triangle and it is trading inside the borders of that triangle. Expected Resistance Level: 12,250 A break above 12,000 may propel the Index to the next resistance level. Expected Support Level: 11,850
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary
Market Indicators 20 Jan 15 19 Jan 15 %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn) 690.6 626.3 10.3
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 647.0 647.9 -0.1
Volume (mn) 16.0 13.2 21.2
Number of Trans. 7,555 6,209 21.7
Companies Traded 42 41 2.4
Market Breadth 24:15 17:22 –
QE Indices
Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return 17,692.54 -0.2 42.5
All Share Index 3,046.31 -0.1 43.0
Banks 3,117.08 -1.2 43.4
Industrials 3,735.63 0.1 36.7
Transportation 2,304.77 -0.5 52.1
Real Estate 2,279.83 1.5 50.5
Insurance 3,742.82 1.3 48.2
Telecoms 1,387.67 0.5 45.4
Consumer 7,023.51 1.2 53.6
Al Rayan Islamic 4,036.46 0.6 47.6
RSI 14 (Over Bought)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
RSI 14 (Over Sold)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
QSE Index (30min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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MERS
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 202.90 0.20 5,179
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 203.00 211.00 220.00
Support 200.00 192.00 180.00
Commentary
Overview: MERS stabilized in a price range between the QR203.00 and the QR195.00 levels. The name is trading between its 50SMA resistance and 100SMA support levels. A break above the upper boundary can take the name higher. From a technically stand point, we suggest that this break is probable. On the intraday chart, a Symmetrical Triangle formation was made; price is just breaking above that triangle. Volumes have to jump with the breach in order to confirm the break. As such we can expect the stock to reach the expected target. Expected Target Price: QR211.00 Only a sustained break above QR203.00 with high volumes triggers the buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss price: QR200.00
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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VFQS
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 15.15 2.43 1,763,198
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 15.20 16.00 16.25
Support 15.00 14.70 14.00
Commentary
Overview: VFQS stabilized above the QR14.50 support after one major drop (between September 2014 – December 2014). The name could be bouncing from this point as technical indicators suggest positive momentum could be in the horizon. On both time frames, the MACD is below the zero line while the Histogram suggests that there is a short-term positive momentum taking place. The RSI is turning positive too. All this suggests is there is more upside from this point. Expected Target Price: QR16.00 – QR16.25 A break above QR15.20 triggers the buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss price: QR14.68
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels
Ticker Close 3rd
2nd
1st
Pivot 1st
2nd
3rd
50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index 11,862.32 11,808.19 11,834.28 11,850.40 11,876.49 11,902.58 11,918.70 11,944.79 12,577.62 13,154.34 13,001.05
Total Return 17,692.54 17,611.80 17,650.72 17,674.76 17,713.68 17,752.60 17,776.64 17,815.56 18,759.40 19,619.57 19,388.55
All Share 3,046.31 3,033.18 3,038.72 3,042.14 3,047.67 3,053.21 3,056.63 3,062.16 3,207.94 3,339.14 3,301.90
Al Rayan Islamic 4,036.46 3,978.83 3,997.47 4,008.98 4,027.61 4,046.25 4,057.76 4,076.39 4,225.38 4,432.83 4,355.05
Banks & Financials Services
MARK 44.20 43.67 43.97 44.16 44.47 44.77 44.96 45.27 46.07 50.20 50.94
CBQK 66.00 65.00 65.46 65.74 66.20 66.66 66.94 67.40 69.46 70.78 69.13
DHBK 55.40 54.13 54.67 55.00 55.53 56.07 56.40 56.93 56.89 58.40 59.63
QIBK 102.70 96.90 99.19 100.61 102.90 105.19 106.61 108.90 103.21 109.20 102.29
QIIK 79.80 78.07 78.60 78.93 79.47 80.00 80.33 80.87 81.64 85.13 84.44
Insurance
QATI 84.00 83.27 83.61 83.82 84.17 84.51 84.72 85.07 88.38 93.48 87.26
Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS 123.40 118.87 120.17 120.97 122.27 123.57 124.37 125.67 121.54 125.05 108.50
Industrials
IQCD 146.30 144.57 145.06 145.37 145.87 146.36 146.67 147.17 175.91 183.31 182.16
QEWS 190.80 189.73 190.04 190.23 190.53 190.84 191.03 191.33 187.55 187.63 186.43
GISS 95.90 94.30 95.18 95.72 96.60 97.48 98.02 98.90 101.52 111.48 105.39
QIGD 38.95 37.65 38.07 38.33 38.75 39.17 39.43 39.85 41.93 48.79 54.72
Real Estate
BRES 45.65 43.58 44.29 44.73 45.43 46.14 46.58 47.28 44.93 43.19 41.44
UDCD 24.79 23.66 24.03 24.25 24.61 24.98 25.20 25.56 24.65 26.50 26.10
ERES 14.50 14.18 14.30 14.37 14.49 14.61 14.68 14.80 16.21 17.85 21.26
MRDS 20.15 18.70 19.13 19.40 19.84 20.27 20.54 20.98 20.29 22.15 20.83
Telecommunication
ORDS 116.20 115.20 115.58 115.82 116.20 116.58 116.82 117.20 117.56 123.18 131.41
VFQS 15.15 14.29 14.60 14.80 15.11 15.42 15.62 15.93 16.61 18.82 18.64
Transportation
QGTS 23.54 23.27 23.37 23.43 23.54 23.64 23.70 23.81 23.18 23.74 23.53
QNNS 97.00 92.80 94.44 95.46 97.10 98.74 99.76 101.40 97.83 96.93 95.81 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
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Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening
and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is
lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they
compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the
security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus
considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative
price direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in
a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally
use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be
considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &
shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These
levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot
Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
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Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 [email protected] [email protected] Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.