July 18th 201921st April-2020

TIME CURRENCY EVENT EXPECTED PREVIOUS CONSENSUS IMPACT

11:30 AM GBPCLAIMANT COUNT

CHANGE (MAR)172.50 17.3K -

NEGATIVE

FOR GBP

02:30 PM EUR

GERMAN ZEW

ECONOMIC

SENTIMENT (APR)

-42.3 -49.5 -NEGATIVE

FOR EUR

06:00 PM CAD

CORE RETAIL

SALES (MOM)

(FEB)

0.3% -0.1% -POSITIVE

FOR CAD

07:30 PM USDEXISTING HOME

SALES (MAR)5.30M 5.77M -

NEGATIVE

FOR USD

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

TOP ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE DAY

SNAPSHOT

SCRIP PRICE % CHANGE TREND

AUDUSD 0.6300 -0.55 NEUTRAL

NZDUSD 0.5998 -0.62 NEUTRAL

EURUSD 1.0831 -0.29 WEAK

GBPUSD 1.2401 -0.28 NEUTRAL

USDJPY 107.59 -0.01 NEUTRAL

USDCAD 1.4155 0.08 STRONG

USDCHF 0.9711 0.35 STRONG

DXY 100.30 0.25 STRONG

GOLD 1,688.82 -0.44 NEUTRAL

SILVER 15.233 -0.56 WEAK

CRUDEOIL 21.19 3.77 WEAK

MARKET BYTES:

• ASIAN EQUITY MARKET CLOSED REDAsian benchmark indices closed in negative territory on Monday afterthe People's Bank of China lowered its benchmark interest rates by 20bps to a record low of 3.85%. At close, Shanghai Composite index closedup 14.06 points or 0.5% at 2,856, the Nikkei 225 fell 228 points or 1.2%to 19,669 and the KOSPI closed 14.78 points or 0.77% lower at 1,900.

• RBA APRIL MINUTES: THE BOARD KEPT ITS BENCHMARK INTERESTRATE STEADY AT 0.25 PERCENT

The Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meet held on April 07,important points to be noted:I. The board kept its benchmark interest rate steady at the record lowof 0.25% and the targeted yield on three-year government bonds ataround 0.25%.

II. The board will continue to support jobs, incomes and businesses.III. The board expects household consumption spending to be muchlower in the June quarter.

IV. The board expects impacted GDP could be offset by stronger publicdemand due to the introduction of income support measures to theeconomy.

ASIAN ECONOMY UPDATE

MSCI

OUR VIEW

MSCI has formed a ‘Bullish Belt Hold’ candlestick pattern on daily scale in which the latter candlestick is long enough to cover the former bearish candlestick and signals for a bullish momentum. RSI is on the verge of breaching above 60 levels. Stochastic oscillator is hinting for more upside.

AUDUSD TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:

AUD/USD has formed a ‘Bearish Divergence’ on hourly scale in which the counter formsa high, slips and traces a new high while oscillators follow different pattern. The pair hasextended its losses after slipping below 100-hours Exponential Moving Average.

INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY

RSI SELL SELL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC SELL SELL NEUTRAL BUY

BOLLINGER BAND SELL SELL NEUTRAL BUY

10 SMA SELL SELL SELL SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL SELL NEUTRAL SELL

SENTIMETER SELL SELL SELL BUY

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:

AUDUSDAUD/USD pair is consolidating after overnight crash in oil prices due to Coronaviruspandemic as demand has been declined. Further, PBOC slashed its interest rates tosupport the economy, which helped the Aussie to hold prices against the greenback.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

SELL 0.6315 0.6266 0.6222 0.6350

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

AUDUSD 0.5983 0.5507 0.6540 0.6758

0.

NZDUSD TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:NZD/USD has witnessed a steep fall after giving a breakout of ‘Bearish Wedge’ patternon hourly scale that signals for a positive consolidated move followed by a bearishreversal. RSI is trading at 33.57 levels showing no signs of divergence and oversold.

INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY

RSI SELL SELL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC SELL SELL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND SELL SELL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

10 SMA SELL SELL SELL SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL SELL BUY SELL

SENTIMETER SELL SELL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT :NZDUSDThe Kiwi pair is following the Aussie for being an antipodean. On the other hand, the USdeath toll crossed 41,000 on Monday, which are continuously hurting economicsentiments. Looking forward, lack of major data could keep traders banking uponCoronavirus headlines.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

SELL 0.6009 0.5967 0.5935 0.6032

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

NZDUSD 0.5845 0.5600 0.6190 0.6343

EUROPEAN ECONOMY UPDATE

MARKET BYTES:

• EUROPEAN EQUITY MARKET CLOSED LOWEREuropean equities market closed in negative territory on Monday afterthe report from Spanish government that they will propose the EU tocreate a €1.5 trillion fund financed by perpetual debt raised by 27countries. Further, plunge in oil price has spooked market’s sentiments.At close, the the DAX 30 gaining 0.5% to finish at 10,676, the FTSE 100closed 26 points or 0.5% higher at 5,813, the FTSE MIB edged up 9points, or 0.1% to 17,064, IBEX 35 declined 68 points, or 1% to 6,808and the CAC 40 rose 29 points, or 0.7% to 4,528.

• COVID-19 CASES: ITALY RECORDED LESS NEW CASES IN SIX WEEKSAccording to Italy health department, Italy reports lowest number ofdeaths in a week and the pace of new infections also slowed. The latestnumbers are 2,256 new cases in which 454 deaths vs. 433 on Sunday.However, the total cases stand at 181,228 and the total deaths at24,114.

EURUSD TREND: WEAK

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:EUR/USD has witnessed selling pressure after tagging its 50% retracement that wasplaced at 1.0880 levels as per Fibonacci analysis on hourly scale. The pair is tradingbelow 50-hours Exponential Moving Average. Stochastic oscillator is hinting for moreweakness.

INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY

RSI SELL SELL SELL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC SELL SELL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND SELL SELL SELL NEUTRAL

10 SMA SELL SELL SELL SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL SELL SELL SELL

SENTIMETER SELL SELL NEUTRAL SELL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT :EURUSDThe Euro is under pressure after the European Commission has announced that, in itsCoronavirus Investment Initiative plan, Hungary, which has 172 coronavirus deaths, willget €5.6bn while with the death toll above 23.6K, Italy will get €2.3bn.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

SELL 1.0850 1.0815 1.0773 1.0873

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

EURUSD 1.0638 1.0475 1.0992 1.1150

GBPUSD TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :GBP/USD has formed a classic ‘Marubozu’ candle stick pattern that often signalscontinuation of downtrend. RSI is closed at 65.82 levels showing no signs of divergenceand oversold situation. DMI’s have been converged for continuation of upside.

INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY

RSI BUY BUY NEUTRAL BUY

STOCHASTIC BUY NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND BUY BUY NEUTRAL BUY

10 SMA BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY NEUTRAL SELL

SENTIMETER BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:GBPUSDGBPUSD pair is in positive territory as Brexit hopes continue to underpin the demandfor pound against the greenback. However, there is no economic event in bothcountries today.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

BUY 1.2512 1.2545 1.2578 1.2486

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

GBPUSD 1.2300 1.2270 1.2380 1.2400

GBPUSD TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :GBP/USD is trading in a ‘Falling Channel’ on hourly scale that signals for a consolidatedmove with a negative bias. The 100-hours Exponential Moving Average will continue toact as a major resistance for the counter.

INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY

RSI SELL SELL SELL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC SELL SELL SELL NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND SELL SELL SELL NEUTRAL

10 SMA SELL SELL SELL SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL SELL SELL BUY

SENTIMETER SELL SELL SELL NEUTRAL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:GBPUSDThe cable pair is clueless ahead of the number of unemployed people in the UK seen at172.5K in March from 17.3K in February, the ILO unemployment rate for the threemonths to February is seen stable at 3.9%, while Average Earnings in the same periodare seen at 3.0%, slightly below the previous 3.1%.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

SELL 1.2473 1.2407 1.2338 1.2510

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

GBPUSD 1.2168 1.1980 1.2777 1.3200

MARKET BYTES:

• US EQUITY FINISHED MIXED ON FRIDAYU.S equity ended mixed on Friday with S&P 500 and Nasdaq closedmarginally lower at 0.1% and 0.2% or 2 and 18 points respectively whileDow Jones was marginally higher at 0.1% or 37 points as US retail salesbeat market expectations in August led by increase in consumption ofauto sector and online shopping platform stimulate the economicgrowth.

• TRUMP URGE TO GM AS UAW (UNITED AUTO WORKERS) CALLSFOR STRIKE SINCE 2007

On Sunday, President Trump said to avoid the strike around 48,000workers, the UAW and General Motors to come together to negotiateand “make a deal”. The strike is to improve wages, reopen idled plants,add jobs at others and close or narrow the difference between pay ratesfor new hires and veteran workers of UAW while General Motors wantsits employees to pay a standard remuneration of their health careexpenses, and to increase productive work-force in their work place.

US ECONOMY UPDATE

MARKET BYTES:

• U.S EQUITY MARKET PLUNGED AT CLOSEU.S equity market finished in red on Monday after US oil prices turnednegative for the first time in history, as global demand continues toweaken due to decline in consumption of oil amid COVID-19. At close, thefinal numbers were: the Dow Jones plunged 592 points or 2.5% to 23,650.The S&P 500 retreated 51 points or 1.8% to 2,823 and the NASDAQdropped 89 points or 1% to 8,561.

• US ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: CHICAGO FED NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEXLOWEST SINCE 2009According to the report from US Chicago Fed National Activity Index(CFNAI) the data tumbled to -4.19 in March of 2020 from a downwardlyrevised 0.06 in February, which was the lowest since January of 2009.

DOLLAR INDEX

OUR VIEW:The DXY has given a breakout of its potential trend line placed on hourly scale. The greenback is holding its 20-hours Exponential Moving Average. RSI is trading at 66.18 levels showing no signs of divergence and overbought. Stochastic oscillator is continued with bullish crossover.

OUTLOOK: STRONG

USDJPY TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:USD/JPY is trading in a ‘Symmetrical triangle’ that signals for slippage in standarddeviation followed by a breakout in the same. RSI is trading back and forth in a range of40-60 levels. Stochastic oscillator is hinting for a lackluster move.

INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY

RSI NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

10 SMA BUY SELL BUY SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL SELL

SENTIMETER NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:USDJPYUSD/JPY pair remained in consolidation phase after the Japan government’s furtherstimulus in the economy to soften the economic impact from the Coronavirus, wortharound 100,000 yen, or more than 900 dollars, in cash to all residents.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

BUY 107.57 107.95 108.22 107.28

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

USDJPY 104.60 101.20 109.38 111.70

USDCAD TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:USDCAD has been bounced back after tagging its primary trend line placed on hourly scale.The pair has extended its gains after sustaining above 100-hours Exponential MovingAverage. RSI is trading at 63.34 levels showing no signs of divergence and overbought.

INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY

RSI BUY BUY BUY NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC BUY BUY BUY NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND BUY BUY BUY NEUTRAL

10 SMA BUY BUY BUY BUY

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY BUY BUY

SENTIMETER BUY BUY BUY BUY

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK:USDCADThe commodity-linked Canadian dollar weakened after oil prices marked a historic moveon 21st April 2020, with WTI for May delivery fell below the zero or negative levels thatautomatically attracted the greenback amongst investors. Later the day, Canadian CoreRetail Sales (MoM) (Feb) data will release.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

BUY 1.4200 1.4246 1.4283 1.4166

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

USDCAD 1.4000 1.3710 1.4350 1.4560

USDCHF TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:USD/CHF has been bounced back after tagging its 61.8% retracement that was placed at0.9615 levels as per Fibonacci analysis on hourly scale. The pair is marching towards itspotential resistance that is placed at 0.9795 levels.

INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY

RSI BUY BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC BUY BUY BUY NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND BUY BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

10 SMA BUY BUY BUY BUY

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY BUY SELL

SENTIMETER BUY BUY BUY BUY

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK:USDCHFUSD/CHF pair is witnessing bullish momentum despite the Federal Reserve Bank ofChicago announced that its National Activity Index in March plummeted to -4.19 inMarch from 0.06 in February, reflecting contraction in the economic activity. Later theday, Trade Balance data from Switzerland and Existing Home Sales data from the US willbe in spotlight.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

BUY 0.9705 0.9745 0.9795 0.9671

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

USDCHF 0.9500 0.9200 0.9902 1.0029

GOLD TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL VIEW:XAU/USD is marching towards its potential resistance that is placed at 1,709.47 levels onhourly scale. The precious metal is trading below 100-hours Exponential MovingAverage. RSI has sensed resistance from 60 levels. Stochastic oscillator is hinting for alackluster move.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

SELL 1710.18 1692.32 1676.41 1720.50

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

GOLD 1640.57 1569.50 1748.31 1795.50

SILVER TREND: SELL

TECHNICAL VIEW:XAG/USD is trading in a ‘Falling Channel’ on hourly scale that signals for a consolidatedmove with a negative bias. The counter is flirting with 100-hours Exponential MovingAverage. RSI is trading back and forth in a range of 40-60 levels.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

SELL 15.156 14.838 14.551 15.343

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

SILVER 13.840 13.000 15.850 16.532

CRUDEOIL TREND: WEAK

TECHNICAL VIEW:Crude Oil WTI futures is slipped into negative territory led by Coronavirus pandemicthat cultivated into no aggregate demand in current scenario due to lockdown in majorcountries. Moreover, the lower storage capacity to store the production of crude oil hasput a halt over the oil exploration.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

- - - - -

SCRIP SUPPORT1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

CRUDE OIL - - - -