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21st November 2008
Dominique Reynié
35th anniversary of EurobarometerUnderstanding European public opinion
Workshop : Getting the European citizens on board
Dominique ReyniéProfessor in Political
Science,Sciences Po
European People and the European Parliament: what kind of story ?
1.
The European Public Opinion and the European Parliament:
A love story?
The European Parliament
87
11
2
888990
898990
9291919192
8991
101010910
8777779
7
3 21 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2
Aut 2001 Sp 2002 Aut 2002 Sp 2003 Aut 2003 Sp 2004 Aut 2004 Sp 2005 Aut 2005 Sp 2006 Aut 2006 Sp 2007 Aut 2007 Sp 2008
yes
no
DK
Have you ever heard of…
The European Commission
78
20
2
79828281
798182
8081
7880
7879
19161717
191716
1716
1917
1918
221
3222333333
Aut 2001 Sp 2002 Aut 2002 Sp 2003 Aut 2003 Sp 2004 Aut 2004 Sp 2005 Aut 2005 Sp 2006 Aut 2006 Sp 2007 Aut 2007 Sp 2008
yes
no
DK
Have you ever heard of…
The European Central Bank
71
7573
25
2
717273
6871
7273737473
76
26
23
2725
30
2727252424
2324
21
32
12222333333
Aut 2001 Sp 2002 Aut 2002 Sp 2003 Aut 2003 Sp 2004 Aut 2004 Sp 2005 Aut 2005 Sp 2006 Aut 2006 Sp 2007 Aut 2007 Sp 2008
yes
no
DK
Have you ever heard of…
The Council of the European Union
62
34
68
626364
6265
666464
62
66
63
65
3032
29
3332
31 3232
36
32
35
29
34
433
2
4
23
2
65
6666
Aut 2001 Sp 2002 Aut 2002 Sp 2003 Aut 2003 Sp 2004 Aut 2004 Sp 2005 Aut 2005 Sp 2006 Aut 2006 Sp 2007 Aut 2007 Sp 2008
yes
no
DK
Have you ever heard of…
The European Parliament
52
27
21
5556
52525152
57
545457
59
54
57
24 2423 23
2729
26
31
34
30
32
28 27
181616
19
1618
1617
20201922
19
Aut2001
Sp 2002 Aut2002
Sp 2003 Aut2003
Sp 2004 Aut2004
Sp 2005 Aut2005
Sp 2006 Aut2006
Sp 2007 Aut2007
Sp 2008
Tend to trust
Tend not to trust
DK
For each of the following institutions, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it (in %)
The European Commission
47
252726
50
52
4847
4646
52
48
46
50
53
4750
2627
3129
3331
272928
24
24
27
24
2121
24
2123
2123
26
26
2525 24
Aut 2001 Sp 2002 Aut 2002 Sp 2003 Aut 2003 Sp 2004 Aut 2004 Sp 2005 Aut 2005 Sp 2006 Aut 2006 Sp 2007 Aut 2007 Sp 2008
Tend to trust
Tend not to trust
DK
For each of the following institutions, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it (in %)
The European Central Bank
44 4446
53
47
24
30 30 3031
22
26
4749
47
51
4447
4947
50
27 28
25 24
27
252525
26
23232323
29
2626
2726
26
27 28
Aut 2001 Sp 2002 Aut 2002 Sp 2003 Aut 2003 Sp 2004 Aut 2004 Sp 2005 Aut 2005 Sp 2006 Aut 2006 Sp 2007 Aut 2007 Sp 2008
Tend to trust
Tend not to trust
DK
For each of the following institutions, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it (in %)
The Council of the European Union
41
45
4042
50
43
3129
21
26
3231
47
43
4042
45
3840
43
2626
25
27 29 28 29
29
2726
2927
28
30
2929
323131
3433
30
Aut2001
Sp 2002 Aut2002
Sp 2003 Aut2003
Sp 2004 Aut2004
Sp 2005 Aut2005
Sp 2006 Aut2006
Sp 2007 Aut2007
Sp 2008
Tend to trust
Tend not to trust
DK
For each of the following institutions, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it (in %)
The European Public Opinion and the European Parliament:
A platonic love story?
45,7
49,8
56,858,5
61
69
1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Turnout for European elections 1979-2004 (in %)
45,7
49,8
56,858,5
61
69
1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Turnout for European elections 1979-2004 (in %)
43
34
58 58
8
3533
38
3535
38
3535
56
50
54565755
5453
97
988
98
11
Aut 2003 Sp 2004 Aut 2004 Sp 2005 Aut 2005 Sp 2006 Aut2006 Sp 2007 Aut 2007 Sp 2008
Confiance
Pas confiance
NSP
For each of the following institutions, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it. The (NATIONALITY PARLIAMENT) in %
Average confidence rating (2001-2008)
The European Parliament 54.4
The [NATIONALITY] Parliament 36
Trust average gapbetween the European Parliament and the [NATIONALITY] Parliament
2001-2008
18.4 pointsin favour of the European Parliament
78,4
62,5
72,975,2
64,1
71,5
67,5
71,6
71 68,1
73
78,2
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Turnout for national elections 1996-2007 (in %)
Turnout at the European elections 1979-2004 (in %) 45,7
49,8
56,858,5
61
69
1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
78,4
62,5
72,975,2
64,1
71,5
67,5
71,6
71 68,1
73
78,2
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Turnout at national elections 1996-2007 (in %)
2.
Boring Elections?
What is missing in the European elections?
Reif, K. and H. Schmitt (1980),
« Nine Second-order National Elections. A
Conceptual Framework for the Analysis of European Election Results ».
European Journal of Political Research 8: 3-44.
3.
An unfair competition.
European elections versus national referendum
Average turnout for European elections (1979-2004) :
58,23%
for national elections (1996-2007) :
70%
Average turnout for the 20 referenda
67,4%
Since 1972:
20 referenda held by
European Union member States
13 approved7 rejected
?
www.opinioneuropeenne.eu