21st Century U.S.-Egypt Relations

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21st Century U.S.-Egypt RelationsA Strategic Conference

May 2014


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BOARD OF DIRECORS

Te Honorable Gary Hart, Chairman

Senator Hart served the State of Colorado in the

U.S. Senate and was a member of the Committee

on Armed Services during his tenure.

Stuart Piltch

Stuart Piltch is the Co-Founder and Managing

Director of Cambridge Advisory Group, an

actuarial and benefits consulting firm based in

Philadelphia.

Norman R. Augustine

Mr. Augustine was Chairman and Principal

Officer of the American Red Cross for nine

years and Chairman of the Council of the

National Academy of Engineering.

Robert B. CroweRobert B. Crowe is a Partner of Nelson

Mullins Riley & Scarborough in its Boston and

Washington, DC offices. He is co-chair of the

firms Government Relations practice.

Brigadier General Stephen A. Cheney, USMC (Ret.)

Brigadier General Cheney is the Chief Executive

Officer of ASP.

Lieutenant General Daniel Christman, USA (Ret.)

Lieutenant General Christman is Senior Vice

President for International Affairs at the United

States Chamber of Commerce.

Lieutenant General John Castellaw, USMC (Ret.)

John Castellaw is President of the Crockett Policy

Institute (CPI), a non-partisan policy and research

organization headquartered in ennessee.

Nelson W. Cunningham

Nelson Cunningham is President of

McLarty Associates.

Lee Cullum

Lee Cullum, at one time a commentator on the

PBS NewsHour and All Tings Considered

on NPR, currently contributes to the Dallas

Morning News and hosts CEO.

Admiral William Fallon, USN (Ret.)

Admiral Fallon has led U.S. and Allied forces and

played a leadership role in military and diplomatic

matters at the highest levels of the U.S. government.

Te Hon. Donald Beyer

Te Hon. Donald Beyer is the former United

States Ambassador to to Switzerland and

Liechtenstein, as well as a former Lieutenant

Governor and President of the Senate of Virginia.

Raj Fernando

Raj Fernando is CEO and founder of

Chopper rading, a technology based trading

firm headquartered in Chicago.

Vice Admiral Lee Gunn, USN (Ret.)

Vice Admiral Gunn is the President of the

Institute of Public Research at the CNA

Corporation, a non-profit corporation in Virginia.

General Lester L. Lyles, USAF (Ret.)

General Lyles retired from the United States Air Force

after a distinguished 35 year career. He is presently

Chairman of USAA, a member of the Defense

Science Board, and a member of the Presidents

Intelligence Advisory Board.

Lieutenant General Claudia Kennedy, USA (Ret.)

Lieutenant General Kennedy was the first woman

to achieve the rank of three-star general in the

United States Army.

Dennis Mehiel

Dennis Mehiel is the Principal Shareholder

and Chairman of U.S. Corrugated, Inc.

Ed ReillyEdward Reilly is CEO of Americas of FD

International Limited, a leading global

communications consultancy that is part of FI

Consulting, Inc.

Governor Christine odd Whitman

Christine odd Whitman is the President of the

Whitman Strategy Group, a consulting firm that

specializes in energy and environmental issues.

Te Hon. Jeffery Bleich

Te Hon. Jeffery Bleich heads the Global Practice

for Munger, olles & Olson. He served as the U.S.

Ambassador to Australia from 2009 to 2013. He

previously served in the Clinton Administration.


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Panel 1: U.S.Egypt Strategic Relations Moving Forward

Te first panel o the 21st Century U.S. - Egypt Strategic Relations conerence, moderated

by Lara Jakes, brought together three distinguished guests to discuss the dynamic

relationship evolving between Washington and Cairo and how they can move orward.

Te panel included Senator Norm Coleman, Mr. Gamal Helal, and Congressman Jim

Kolbe, each o whom have extensive experience and background with Egypt and the

greater Middle East.

One main theme that was

apparent throughout eachspeakers presentation was

the need to strike a balance

between American values

(promotion o democracy,

human rights, etc.) and

stability. All o the speakers

reiterated the importanceo the U.S. Egyptian

relationship, citing the

protection o the Suez Canal, advancing Arab-Israeli peace, pursuing counter-terrorism

measures, and protecting the vital military-to-military relationship. However, the United

States cannot orget its core values, but instead balance that with our strategic interests.

From the U.S. standpoint, according to Gamal Helal, the strategic partnership with Egypt

should not be a partisan issue and we should seize the opportunity to swifly engage with

the new government. Egypt also has reason to maintain an amicable relationship with

the United States. Economic, security, and political assistance are desperately needed to

keep Egypt afloat afer 3 years o instability. Te U.S. is in the best position to provide

such assistance, which can urther improve our image in Egypt and the region as a whole.

One striking point made during the panel discussion was that ailure with Egypt is not

an option. Te strategic relationship is too important or both sides to ignore, and thereneeds to be an open and meaningul dialogue or each side to clariy their perception and

intentions or moving orward.


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Zack Gold: errorism and the Sinai

Zack Gold, a Middle East policy analyst rom the Brookings Institute, spoke

on terrorism in the Sinai Peninsula at the American Security Projects 21st

Century U.S. Egypt Strategic Relations conerence on May 7th, 2014.

In his presentation he spoke o

the dramatic increase in violence

in the Sinai since the popular

uprisings that ousted Hosni

Mubarak, as well as Mohammed

Morsi.

Since 2011, 700 policeman,

soldiers, and civilians have been

killed, 500 o those occurred

since 2013.

Mr. Gold lays out our reasons to explain the recent increase in violence in

the Sinai: security orces melting away afer Mubarak was ousted, recentmass jailbreaks o Salafi Jihadists, the release o detainees under the Supreme

Council o Armed Forces and Mohammed Morsi, and the Libyan uprising

that allowed or weapon stocks to be raided and smuggled into the Sinai.

Te majority o the near daily attacks that occur are by disgruntled Bedouins

and al-Qaeda inspired Jihadi groups who want to disrupt the relationship

between Egypt and Israel.

One o the most notorious o these groups is known as Ansar Bait al-Maqdis

(ABM), who take credit or the larger-scale attacks, such as the rocket-

propelled grenade on an Egyptian helicopter that killed five soldiers last

January.

Te Egyptian response, according to Mr. Gold, has involved Apache helicopter

attacks on villages and known terrorist hotspots, but is only a short-term

solution that will only perpetuate grievances and inspire more violent attacks

against the state.


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In reerence to the U.S. Egypt strategic relationship, Zack Gold

highlights a number o actions taken by the Egypt government in

which the U.S sees as counterproductive. For example, banning the

Muslim Brotherhood, essentially outlawing protests, the harassment

o non-Islamists civil society organizations, and the detention o

journalists, according to Mr. Gold, is very harmul or the strategic

relationship.

Expanding Egypts war on terror to include war on political dissent

has distanced the U.S. support or countering a terrorist threat in

Egypt. Zack Gold concludes by reiterating the mutual concern o

terrorism in the Sinai as an important issue or both Egypt and theUnited States, and should be a reason to strengthen the relationship

rather than let it alter.


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Panel 2: Counterterrorism and RegionalSecurity

Te second panel o the day, Counter errorism and Regional Security, had General

Carter Ham and Ambassador Youse al-Otaiba discussing the recent terrorism spike in

Egypt, its implications or the region, and what key issues both Cairo and Washington

can ocus on to overcome this terrorism threat.

o summarize General Ham, Egypt matters and the United States can find ways to help

the security threat by sending an ambassador to Cairo, help Egypt plan and conduct

regional security exercises throughout Arica, support the reintegration o Egypt with

the Arican Union, and look or opportunities to continue counter terrorism activities

in the Sinai. He finishes by saying that the relationship with Egypt is not a black and

white question, but is a complex one that must consider the United States strategic

interests, as well as promote its core values.

Ambassador Youse al-Otaiba

discussion ocused on the

act that Egypt must establish

stability beore it can trulysolve the economic issues

plaguing the nation. In order

or businesses to invest in, or

tourists to travel to, and or

Egyptians to believe in Egypt,

there must be a secure and

stable state.

Te Ambassidor believes that security is at the core o problems acing the nation, and

that or Egypt to thrive in the uture, terrorism must be combatted and regional security

established.

General Ham concluded the discussion by saying that establishing security and stability

is a necessary precursor to improving the economy, but it is how Egyptian security

orces establish stability that matters, and the new government must consider humanrights and be in accordance with the rule o law.


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Panel 3: Investment Climate andEntrepreneurship

Te third and final panel o the day, Investment Climate, and Entrepreneurship,

discussed the key economic changes Egypt will need to go through, as well as the

uture o business and growth sustainability.

Egypt is the largest

economic market in the

Middle East, with over

90 million people. An

open and competitiveeconomy, a politically

stable government,

and the potential or

investment rom nations

around the world will be

key in the growth and

sustainability o Egypt.

Te distinguished panelists included Nelson Cunningham, Dante Disparte, Khush

Chosky, and Basil El Baz.

Dante Disparte set the tone or the discussion by saying no matter where you stand

politically, economics will punish you. Egypt must establish a pathway orward that

encourages investment and creates jobs. Te driver behind Egypts way orward is

small and medium enterprises (SMEs).

According to Basil El Baz Egypt has the basic undamentals to provide jobs, but

lacks investment and the economic reorms to acilitate growth. His solution

is to increase education on entrepreneurship on a wide scale to promote the

development o SMEs, something the United States could easily partner with.

Being a successul Egyptian entrepreneur himsel, whose company is now the

largest investor in post-revolutionary Egypt, El Baz challenges the concept that

Egypt is hard to work in. His projects, having been developed in a complicated

market, established a well-balanced structure that allows his company to flourish.


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El Baz believes Egypt has the proper model to develop a highly efficient economy.

Using an anecdote about South Korea modeling their system afer Egypt decades

ago, El Baz stresses that Egypt simply needs to make the proper decisions to ensure

that their own model works. El Baz said, Trough reorm, through structure you

can establish practically any economic goal as the South Koreans did, who now

have a highly developed economy.

Mustaa Abdel-Wadood, however, reminds us o the set o harsh realities in

Egypt political transition, unemployment, and lack o investment that only

hinder long-term challenges such as growth, employment, and education. Egypt

has deteriorated over the past ew years and remains an uncertain market. Khush

Choksy lists 5 economic issues that must change or Egypt to move orward andencourage investment: (1) a comprehensive economic policy must be enacted, (2)

there must be a reorm in the bureaucracy, (3) a genuine public- private sector

dialogue must take place, (4) business best practices must be instituted, and (5)

there should be a government-to-government dialogue between Egypt and the

U.S.

Despite the challenges ahead and the tone presented in the media, each panelists

remains ervently optimistic about the uture o Egypt. Basil El Baz described

discipline as one o the main keys to Egypts success and he believes that with

discipline you can navigate through any turbulent time.


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Interview with H.E. Amr Moussa

During last months 21st Century U.S. Egypt Strategic Relations Conerence

ASPs Paul Hamill sat down with H.E. Amr Moussa, the elected president o the

committee o 50 responsible or drafing a new constitution in Egypt.

Te committee o 50

represented all segments o

Egyptian society that authored

the new constitution, which

was subsequently approved in

a reerendum in January 2014.

According to Moussa, this

new constitution will orm

the basis o the new political

lie and is the start o a very

important roadmap that will

guide Egypt towards stability.

All o us should ollow the steps established by the new constitutionthis is our

guide to the new Egypt.

Egyptians eel that the ailure o previous governments must be reversed and

replaced with solid management based on the principles established in the

constitution, and Moussa expressed a sense o optimism or this and the uture o

Egypt, citing the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections as the next

vital steps along Egypts roadmap to success.


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Te Speakers

U.S.Egypt Strategic Relations Moving Forward

Lara Jakes is an award-winning correspondent or Te Associated Press inWashington, where she currently is a senior national security writer and based at theState Department. Jakes worked or three years as a oreign correspondent based inIraq, including one year as AP Chie o Bureau in Baghdad. She has covered war andsectarian fighting in Iraq, Aghanistan, the West Bank, and Northern Ireland.

Jakes was a homeland security ellow at the Knight Center or Specialized Journalismat the University o Marylands Phillip Merrill College o Journalism. She is a 1995graduate o the University o Missouris School o Journalism and pursuing a mastersdegree in oreign relations at the Maxwell School o Citizenship and Public Affairs at

Syracuse University.

Senator Norm Coleman is a Senior Government Advisor at Hogan Lovells US LLP,counseling clients on a wide range o regulatory and government affairs issues. Hepreviously served as a U.S. Senator, representing Minnesota rom 2003 2009. Priorto his election to the U.S. Senate, Senator Coleman was the mayor o St. Paul, MNrom 1994 2002.

During his six years in the U.S. Senate, Senator Coleman served on the prestigious

Foreign Relations Committee. He was Chair o the Western Hemisphere subcommitteeand ranking member o the Near East subcommittee, working to oster closer tieswith our hemispheric neighbors and protect Americas interests in the crucial MiddleEast region. Senator Coleman also co-chaired the Senate Bio-Fuels Caucus and servedon the Senate Agriculture Committee. He currently serves as Chairman o the Boardo the American Action Network in Washington, D.C.

Gamal Helal is a ormer translator and advisor to the last our U.S. Presidents andsix Secretaries o State. Helal began as an Arabic interpreter in the Department o

State, and played a critical role during talks with Iraq beore the Gul War. In 1993, hebecame the senior diplomatic Arabic interpreter in the Department.

He was integral part o U.S relations with the Middle East, serving as the seniorMideast adviser to every President since George H. W. Bush. He was also involved asan Arabic interpreter in every recent major peace talk, notably the 2000 talks betweenIsraeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, and Palestinian Chairman Yasser Araat. Helalwas also a key player during communications with leaders in the Middle East afer theWorld rade Center bombings in 2001.

He served as an interpreter in Arabic language communications with Middle Easternleaders to work through the difficult time and promote cultural understanding.


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Congressman Jim Kolbe is currently serving as a Senior ransatlantic Fellow at theGerman Marshall Fund o the United States, and as a Senior Advisor to McLartyAssociates, a strategic consulting firm. Recently, President Obama appointed himto the Advisory Committee or rade Policy and Negotiations, where he providespolicy advice on trade matters. Jim Kolbe is also a co-Chair o the Modernizing

Foreign Assistance Network (MFAN), a reorm coalition composed o internationaldevelopment and oreign policy practitioners, policy advocates and experts, concernedcitizens and private sector organizations.

For 22 years, Jim Kolbe served in the United States House o Representatives,elected or eleven consecutive terms, rom 1985 to 2007. He represented the Eighth(previously designated the Fifh) congressional district, comprising the southeasternpart o Arizona with ucson as the main population area. While in Congress, Jimserved or 20 years on the Appropriations Committee o the House o Representatives.He was chairman o the reasury, Post Office and Related Agencies subcommittee orour years, and or the last six years in Congress, he chaired the Foreign Operations,Export Financing and Related Agencies subcommittee.

Terrorism and the Sinai

Zack Gold is an accomplished researcher and writer on U.S. Middle East policy,specifically concerning threats to Egyptian and regional security rom Sinai andGaza. He is the author o recent analysis papers on Sinai terrorism and security

cooperation or the Brookings Institutions Saban Center or Middle East Policy andthe International Centre or Counter-errorism - Te Hague.

Previously, Gold was a research associate at the Institute or Foreign Policy Analysiswhere he wrote papers or the Deense Treat Reduction Agency and US Marine Corps.He also conducted counter-terrorism research at the International Policy Instituteor Counter-errorism in Israel. Gold obtained his M.A. in law and diplomacy romTe Fletcher School at ufs University and twice received the Department o StatesCritical Language Scholarship to study Arabic in Oman and Egypt.

Counterterrorism and Regional Security

Lieutenant General John Castellaw USMC (Ret.) is a retired Lieutenant General othe US Marine Corps. As a Marine Aviator, he flew more than two dozen differentaircraf including the CH-46E SEAKNIGH, the AV-8B HARRIER and the MV-22A OSPREY. During his 36 year career, he held several commands including MarineMedium Helicopter Squadron 264, Marine Aviation Weapons and actics Squadron1, the 3d Marine Expeditionary Brigade, U.S. FORCES EAS IMOR, and the 2dMarine Aircraf Wing.


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As a staff officer, he served on several high level military staffs in Europe, the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East.

As a veteran, he is a member o the Marine Corps League, Te Marine CorpsAssociation, and Te Naval Institute and is beginning his first term as the National

Commander o the Marine Corps Aviation Association.

General Carter F. Ham USA (Ret.) is the ormer Commander o U.S. AricaCommand and Commanding General o U.S. Army Europe and 7th Army.

He has held a variety o positions to include Recruiting Area Commander;Battalion Executive Officer at the National raining Center; Advisor to the SaudiArabian National Guard Brigade; Commander, 1st Battalion, 6th Inantry; Chieo Staff, 1st Inantry Division; Commander, 29th Inantry Regiment; commander,

Multi-National Brigade, Mosul, Iraq; Commander, 1st Inantry Division; Directoror Operations, J-3, Te Joint Staff, Washington, DC.

General Hams military education includes the Armor Officers Advanced Course,Naval College o Command and Staff, graduating with distinction, and the U. S.Air Forces Air War College.

His awards and decorations include Army Distinguished Service Medal, DeenseSuperior Service Medal with three oak lea clusters, the Legion o Merit with two

oak lea clusters, the Bronze Star Medal, and the Joint Service CommendationMedal.

H.E. Ambassador Yousef Al Otaibahas been the United Arab Emirates Ambassadorto the United States since July 2008. Beore being appointed as Ambassador, heserved seven years as the Director o International Affairs or the court o theCrown Prince o Abu Dhabi, where he was a senior advisor to the Mohammedbin Zayed Al Nahyan. During that time, Al Otaiba helped strengthen the UAEssecurity and economic relations throughout the region.

Most recently, Ambassador Al Otaiba has helped guide Abu Dhabis leadership inmultinational discussions on best practices or sovereign wealth unds. Tis activitywas an extension o Ambassador Al Otaibas efforts to promote and deepen traderelationships between the UAE and other government, commercial, and privatesector entities. For several years, Ambassador Al Otaiba has acilitated meetingsbetween the UAE and other oreign economic interests, which have resulted innumerous mutually beneficial cooperative and partnership agreements.


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Investment Climate and Entrepreneurship

Nelson Cunningham is President o McLarty Associates, the internationalstrategic advisory firm headed by ormer White House Chie o Staff andSpecial Envoy or the Americas Tomas F. Mack McLarty III. Cunningham

was also Special Advisor to President Clinton or Western Hemisphere Affairsand previously served as a counsel at the White House and as General Counselo the Senate Judiciary Committee under Senator Joseph Biden. Prior to that,he was a ederal prosecutor in New York under then-U.S. Attorney RudolphGiuliani and also served as a oreign policy and trade advisor to the 2004 Kerrycampaign.

Cunningham is an active member o the boards o the Institute o theAmericas, the American Security Project, the Atlantic Council, and the U.S.-

India Business Council, and is a member o the Yale Presidents Council onInternational Activities, the Department o States Advisory Committee onInternational Economic Policy, the Council o the Americas, and the Councilon Foreign Relations.

Basil ElBazis the Chairman & Chie Executive Officer o Carbon Holdings.He has successully developed and financed two major industrial greenfieldprojects in Egypt; Egypt Basic Industries Corporation (EBIC) and EgyptHydrocarbon Corporation (EHC). EBIC represents and still is the only

project to receive a comprehensive loan guarantee rom the Export ImportBank o the United States. Furthermore, EBIC is one o a select number oprojects in Egypt to be financed entirely by consortium o international banks.Te project has an approximate value o US$650 million. Carbon Holdingssecond project, EHC, with a transaction value o approximately US$500million is widely considered as the first major industrial project to close inpostrevolution Egypt. Construction o the second project commenced inAugust 2011 with commercial operation scheduled to commence during the

ourth quarter o 2014. In December 2012, Carbon Holdings concluded itsUS$114 million acquisition o the Egyptian polypropylene producer, OrientalPetrochemicals Company (OPC).

Most importantly, Carbon Holdings is developing a US$6.75 billion NaphthaCracker and Polyethylene Complex project named ahrir Petrochemicals thatis currently in an advanced stage o financing. Te project is anticipated obeing financed entirely by the Export Import Bank o the United States, theExport Import Bank o Korea, the Korea rade Insurance Corporation and

SACE, the export credit agency o Italy. Mr. ElBaz is a graduate o HarvardUniversity.


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Prior to that he spent eight years at Orascom Group as Director o Developmentand Investments. Mr Abdel-Wadood has served on the Boards o several publiclylisted and private companies.

In 2002, the World Economic Forum named Mr Abdel-Wadood a Global Leader

or omorrow and in 2007 named him a Young Global Leader.

He is also a member o the Young Presidents Organization. He graduated inBusiness Administration rom American University and holds an MBA romGeorgetown University.

Amr Moussa is a leading Egyptian politician and diplomat who was the Secretary-General o the Arab League rom 2001 to 2011. Moussa has played an active role inormulating Egypts oreign policy ever since obtaining his law degree rom CairoUniversity in 1957. From 1991 to 2001, he served in the government o Egypt asMinister o Foreign Affairs rom 1991 to 2001. He has also served a total o 21 yearscombined as Egypts ambassador to the United Nations, India, and Switzerland.

Last September, he was elected president o the committee o 50 representingall segments o Egyptian society that authored the new constitution, which wassubsequently approved in a reerendum in January 2014.

ASP would like to thank Carbon Holdings.

PUBLISHED JULY 2014


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Te American Security Project (ASP) is a nonpartisan organizationcreated to educate the American public and the world about the changingnature of national security in the 21st Century.

Gone are the days when a nations security could be measured bybombers and battleships. Security in this new era requires harnessingall of Americas strengths: the force of our diplomacy; the might of ourmilitary; the vigor and competitiveness of our economy; and the powerof our ideals.

We believe that America must lead in the pursuit of our common goalsand shared security. We must confront international challenges with

our partners and with all the tools at our disposal and address emergingproblems before they become security crises. And to do this we mustforge a bipartisan consensus here at home.

ASP brings together prominent American business leaders, formermembers of Congress, retired military flag officers, and prominentformer government officials. ASP conducts research on a broad rangeof issues and engages and empowers the American public by taking its

findings directly to them via events, traditional & new media, meetings,and publications.

We live in a time when the threats to our security are as complex anddiverse as terrorism, nuclear proliferation, climate change, energychallenges, and our economic wellbeing. Partisan bickering and age oldsolutions simply wont solve our problems. America and the world -needs an honest dialogue about security that is as robust as it is realistic.

ASP exists to promote that dialogue, to forge that consensus, and to spurconstructive action so that America meets the challenges to its security

while seizing the opportunities that abound.

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21st Century U.S.-Egypt Relations

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