22 May 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 JK Lakshmi Cement HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters Strong margin uptick; Healthy balance sheet We maintain BUY on JK Lakshmi Cement with a TP of Rs 370. A sharp 16% vol dip in 4QFY20 pulled down FY20 vol by 5% YoY. The Covid impact will further pull down FY21E volume by 16% YoY. However, we build in 21% vol recovery in FY22E. This along with falling energy costs in FY21 to limit standalone EBITDA decline CAGR at 3% during FY20-22E. Healthy cash flows keep leverage comfortable and support capex acceleration FY22E onwards. In 4QFY20, despite lower vols, healthy pricing in the north/Guj markets boosted standalone EBITDA/APAT by 54/133%. EBITDA Margin surges to 30-qtr high; despite sharp sales’ decline: Sales vol fell 16% YoY (+6% QoQ) to 2.5mn MT, hit hard by Covid led lockdown, pulling down cem utilisation to 70% vs 96/80% YoY/QoQ. Higher share of clinker (13% vs 7/7% YoY/QoQ) in total sales flattened NSR QoQ. However, NSR remained 8% up YoY, benefitting from buoyant pricing in the north/Guj markets. This, along-with lower unitary opex (lower energy cost tailwinds) boosted unitary EBITDA by 84/26% YoY/QoQ to Rs 820/MT (30- qtr high)! Hence despite 10% revenue fall, EBITDA/PAT rose 54/133% YoY. Balance sheet firmed up on healthy cashflows, lower capex in FY20: Solid pricing in the north/Guj regions boosted 10% NSR gain in FY20, which more than offset 5% vol loss and unitary EBITDA grew to its 7-yr high of Rs 732/MT. Falling petcoke prices and logistics cost control also boosted margin expansion. Thus, EBITDA/APAT soared 62/221% YoY. Amid low capex spends, JKLC’s gross/net debt fell 10/18% YoY to Rs 14.5/10bn resp and its net Debt/EBITDA halved to 1.5x YoY (10-yr low). Concall/ capex updates: The co is adding a 10MW WHRS in Sirohi by Mar’21E and its subs – Udaipur Works will debottleneck its clinker capacity by 0.3mn MT. It will start work on a 2.5mn MT brown-field expansion in Raj in FY22E, after the Covid situation normalizes. Thus, total capex outflow during FY21-22E in our view should be lower at Rs 8bn vs our earlier est of Rs 12bn. This should keep leverage under check amid earnings decline in the same period. We estimate net Debt/EBITDA to remain under 2x . Maintain BUY: We have reduced EBITDA est for FY21/22E by 4/4% each as we factor in higher impact of Covid and build in EBITDA to decline at 3% CAGR during FY20-22E. We value the standalone cement biz at 8x FY22E EBITDA and value its 72.5% holding in Udaipur Cement Works at 20% disc. Thus, our SOTP based TP remains unchanged at Rs 370. We continue to like the co for its large presence in north markets and on increased cost controls. YE Mar (Rs mn) 4Q FY20 4Q FY19 YoY (%) 3Q FY19 QoQ (%) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E Net Sales 10,612 11,725 (9.5) 10,050 5.6 34,122 38,823 40,435 34,304 41,405 EBITDA 2,020 1,312 53.9 1,519 33.0 4,114 4,150 6,724 5,208 6,371 APAT 1,008 433 132.9 492 104.9 840 796 2,624 1,613 2,238 AEPS (Rs) 8.6 3.7 132.9 4.2 104.9 7.1 6.8 22.3 13.7 19.0 EV /EBITDA (x) 9.7 8.8 5.1 6.6 5.7 EV/MT (Rs bn) 3.66 3.36 2.93 2.93 3.13 P/E (x) 28.9 30.5 9.2 15.0 10.8 RoE (%) 5.9 5.3 16.2 9.0 11.4 Source: Company, HSIE Research, Standalone Financials BUY CMP (as on 21 May 2020) Rs 206 Target Price Rs 370 NIFTY 9,106 KEY CHANGES OLD NEW Rating Buy Buy Price Target Rs 370 Rs 370 EBITDA % FY21E FY22E (4.3) (4.4) KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg code JKLC IN No. of Shares (mn) 118 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 24/321 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 59 52 Week high / low Rs 396/180 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) (36.7) (26.7) (44.1) Relative (%) (11.8) (3.0) (23.5) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Dec-19 Mar-20 Promoters 45.93 46.21 FIs & Local MFs 18.71 18.96 FPIs 10.53 10.61 Public & Others 24.83 24.22 Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0 Source : BSE Rajesh Ravi [email protected]+91-22-6171-7352 Saurabh Dugar [email protected]+91-22-6171-7353
Transcript
22 May 2020 Results Review 4QFY20
JK Lakshmi Cement
HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters
Strong margin uptick; Healthy balance sheet
We maintain BUY on JK Lakshmi Cement with a TP of Rs 370. A sharp 16%
vol dip in 4QFY20 pulled down FY20 vol by 5% YoY. The Covid impact will
further pull down FY21E volume by 16% YoY. However, we build in 21% vol
recovery in FY22E. This along with falling energy costs in FY21 to limit
standalone EBITDA decline CAGR at 3% during FY20-22E. Healthy cash
flows keep leverage comfortable and support capex acceleration FY22E
onwards. In 4QFY20, despite lower vols, healthy pricing in the north/Guj
markets boosted standalone EBITDA/APAT by 54/133%.
From 2nd March 2020, we have moved to new rating system
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JK Lakshmi Cement: Results Review 4QFY20
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