22nd September 2009 City Hall, Cardiff
Faith Action on Climate Change
‘What if we do nothing?’
Dr. Alan NetherwoodNetherwood Sustainable Futures
Honorary Research Fellow, Cardiff School of City and Regional Planning,Cardiff University
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Alternative ‘Adaptation’ Futures
unknown adaptation required after 2040s
unknown mitigation required after 2040s
known adaptation required to 2040s
known mitigation required to 2040s
observationsMedium-High emissions (modelled)
European summer temperatures
Source: Peter Stott, Hadley Centre
Are our systems fit for purpose?
China and India = global equity on carbon emissions? Emissions
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Car
bon
emis
sion
s (M
tC)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
~ 9% p.a. reduction
from: Tyndall Centre
….. requiring dramatic annual
carbon reductions between
2012-2032
.....if 2°C rise is to be
avoided
A decreasing carbon budget?
The effect of “Peak Oil”OIL AND GAS LIQUIDS
2004 Scenario
US-48
Europe
Russia
Other
M.East
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Bill
ion
Bar
rels
a y
ear (
Gb/
a)
US-48 Europe Russia Other M.East Heavy etc. Deepwater Polar NGLConventional Oil Unconventional Oil
Supply and 'Business-As-Usual Demand'
Gap
Source: PostCarbon Institute (2008)
Wicked issues on Carbon Reductionwhere are we going to get our energy from?
will cap and trade schemes work (EUETS and CRC)?
the role of nuclear energy in an nuclear ‘free’ country?
the role of our coal reserves and carbon capture and storage?
government intervention on transport choice - road and congestion charging ?
carbon reduction bang for buck through microgeneration in households?
Severn Barrage contribution to reducing Wales’ footprint
peak oil’s affect on carbon reduction?
agriculture’s role in capturing carbon in the landscape and food versus biomass?
is the system fit for purpose – market v intervention?
• hotter summers, milder winters
• longer growing season
• more rain in winter, less in summer
• warmer seas
• sea level rise of 1 metre (2100)
• increase in extreme years
• more droughts, heatwaves, flooding
• frequent and violent storms/gales
• similar to Brittany or Galicia in Spain?
• new UKCP09 – provides probablistic data
• dual approach of MITIGATION and ADAPTATION
The long term ‘climate’ forecast for Wales
Wicked Issues on Climate Adaptation
Economy – paying for what needs to be done to adapt
Water Resources – ensuring enough water for everyone
Health – protecting vulnerable sections of society
Flooding – managing risks of sea level rise and river flows
Wildlife – helping species to migrate in and out
Landscape – balancing needs for food, biofuels and water
Agriculture – protecting soils, water and skills
Food – security of supply, sustainable production
Migrants – providing resources, welcoming communities
A message from our chief scientist.....
Perfect storm of scarcity will unleash global turmoil:
The Guardian Thursday 19 March 2009
A ‘perfect storm of food shortages, scarce water and insufficient energy resources threaten to unleash public unrest, cross-border conflicts and mass migration as people flee the worst (climate change) affected regions the government’s chief scientist, Professor John Beddington warns today
Our food reserves are at a 50 year low but by 2030 we need to be producing 50% more food, with 50% more energy and 30% more fresh water. There are dramatic problems out there...and they are all intimately connected....We must deal with all of these together
A final thought..........
Thankyou for listening
Diolch yn fawr
Dr. Alan Netherwood, WLGA/Netherwood Sustainable Futures
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