23. / 23rd FORUM - HED · 2017. 5. 26. · HED 23. Forum Kako definirati i implementirati...

CROATIAN ENERGY ASSOCIATION

23. / 23rd FORUMDAN ENERGIJE U HRVATSKOJ

Zagreb, 28. 11. 2014.

ZBORNIK SAŽETAKA / ABSTRACT COLLECTION

HOW TO DEFINE AND IMPLEMENT AN ENERGY POLICY IN LIGHT OF NEW EU GUIDELINES FOR THE YEAR 2030?

KAKO DEFINIRATI I IMPLEMENTIRATI ENERGETSKU POLITIKU U SVJETLU NOVIH SMJERNICA EU-A ZA 2030. GODINU?

HRVATSKO ENERGETSKO DRUŠTVO

CROATIAN ENERGY ASSOCIATION

23. FORUM: DAN ENERGIJE U HRVATSKOJ

23rd FORUM: ENERGY DAY IN CROATIA

Kako definirati i implementirati energetsku politiku

u svjetlu novih smjernica EU-a za 2030. godinu?

How to define and implement an energy policy

in light of new EU guidelines for the year 2030?

28. studenog 2014. / 28th November 2014

Mala dvorana „Vatroslav Lisinski“ / Small Hall “Vatroslav Lisinski”

Zagreb, Trg Stjepana Radića 4

Izdavač / Publisher:

Hrvatsko energetsko društvo

Zagreb, Savska cesta 163

Priredili / Edit by:

Dr. sc. Goran Granić

Dr. sc. Branka Jelavić

Glavna i odgovorna urednica / Editor:

Dr. sc. Branka Jelavić

Pomoćnici glavne urednice / Assistants of the Editor:

Mr. sc. Sandra Antešević

Martina Mikulić, mag. ing. el. techn. inf.

Dražen Balić, mag. ing. mech.

Dizajn naslovnice / Cover design:

Martina Komerički Košarić, mag. oec.

Lektura / Language editing:

Prof. Anita Filipović

Engleski prijevodi / English translation:

Martina Mikulić, mag. ing. el. techn. inf.

Dražen Balić, mag. ing. mech.

Tisak / Press:

AZP-Grafis

Samobor, Franjina 7

Autorska prava / Copyright:

Hrvatsko energetsko društvo

Zagreb, Savska cesta 163

Naklada / Edition:

250 primjeraka

Za sve navode u člancima odgovorni su isključivo autori.

Authors are responsible for all statements made in their articles.

Sadržaj / Contents

PREDGOVOR .................................................................................................................................... 1

FOREWORD ...................................................................................................................................... 2

ŽIVOTOPISI PREDAVAČA / PRESENTERS CURRICULUM VITAE ......................................... 3

1. Goran Granić .......................................................................................................................... 4

2. Einari Kisel ............................................................................................................................. 5

3. Gerald Stang ........................................................................................................................... 5

4. Thomas Klopfer ...................................................................................................................... 5

5. Tahir Kapetanović .................................................................................................................. 6

6. Matthias Maedge .................................................................................................................... 6

7. Carsten Rolle .......................................................................................................................... 7

8. András Jenei ........................................................................................................................... 7

9. Marco Margheri ...................................................................................................................... 8

10. Istvan Szabo ........................................................................................................................... 8

11. Dubravko Sabolić ................................................................................................................... 8

12. Ivica Toljan............................................................................................................................. 9

13. Željko Tomšić......................................................................................................................... 9

14. Tomislav Novosel................................................................................................................. 10

15. Vladimir Potočnik ................................................................................................................ 10

SAŽETCI REFERATA / PAPER ABSTRACTS ............................................................................. 11

1. Goran Granić i suradnici: Kako postaviti ekonomske odnose na tržištu energije za

ostvarivanje politike očuvanja klime / How to set up economic relations in the energy market

for the realization of climate preservation policy ………………...………………..……..........12

2. Einari Kisel: Svjetski energetski scenariji do 2050.: Utjecaj modela energetskog upravljanja na

budućnost europskog energetskog sektora / World energy scenarios 2050: Impact of the energy

governance models to the future of the European energy sector ….……………………..……14

3. Gerald Stang: Ključna pitanja za postizanje ciljeva EU-a za smanjenje emisija bez napuštanja

ostalih energetskih ciljeva / Key questions for achieving EU emission reductions without

abandoning other energy goals …...………………………………………………………...….16

4. Matthias Maedge: Metan kao gorivo za vozila u Europi / Methane as a vehicle fuel in Europe

…………………………………………………………………..…………………………...…17

5. Istvan Szabo: Održivo oblikovanje projekata pametnih mreža / Sustainable SmartGrid project

design ..………………………………………………………………………………………...18

6. Dubravko Sabolić: Statističko modeliranje proizvodnje velikog sustava vjetroelektrana –

studija slučaja / Statistical modeling of large wind plant system’s generation – a case study ...19

7. Ivica Toljan: Trajektorije transaktivne energetike europske i hrvatske energetske politike /

Transactive energy trajectories of European and Croatian energy policy ...…….………….….20

8. Željko Tomšić: Ekonomska analiza dobiti i troškova implementacije naprednih mreža /

Cost-benefit analysis of smart grids implementation ……………...…………………………..22

9. Tomislav Novosel: Upotreba „agent based“ alata za energetsko planiranje – modeliranje

energetskih potreba za sektor transporta / Utilization of agent based modelling for energy

planning – Transport energy demand modelling ...………………....………………………….24

10. Vladimir Potočnik: Energetska transformacija Hrvatske / Energy transformation of Croatia..26

SPONZORI 23. FORUMA / 23rd FORUM SPONSORSHIP.…………………….....……………..27

HED 23. Forum Kako definirati i implementirati energetsku politiku


HED 23rd Forum How to define and implement an energy policy 1


PREDGOVOR

Ovogodišnji Forum je posvećen problemima implementacije klimatske i energetske politike EU-a

do 2030. godine. Ako se prihvati nužnost smanjenja emisija CO2, kao glavni politički cilj EU-a,

temeljni problem implementacijske politike je pitanje: Kako implementirati postavljene ciljeve? Do

sada se implementacijska politika pokazala nedovoljna za ostvarenje postavljenih ciljeva,

popularno definiranih s 3x20. U stručnim raspravama ističu se najvažniji problemi

implementacijske politike:

Treba li kao jedini cilj istaknuti smanjenja emisija CO2 ili i dalje zadržati obnovljive izvore

i energetsku učinkovitost, koji su sredstva za ostvarenje cilja smanjenja emisija

Kako osigurati financiranje mjera klimatske politike jer sustav trgovanja emisijama nije

donio očekivane rezultate

Kako definirati poziciju obnovljivih izvora, a da se pri tome ne narušava stabilnost tržišta

Proteklo razdoblje pokazuje veliki sukob tržišnog i administrativnog koncepta na štetu tržišnog.

Ako se nastave sadašnji procesi, sve manje će biti tržišnog, a sve više administrativnog pa se

vjerojatno za razdoblje oko 2050. godine više i neće moći govoriti o tržištu kao osnovnom

konceptu odnosa u EU.

U stručnim krugovima se osjeća određena frustracija da se političkim rješenjima zanemaruju

objektivni problemi u energetskom sustavu, posebno u elektroenergetskom koji je najsofisticiraniji

u održavanju ravnoteže proizvodnje i potrošnje električne energije. Budući se političkim mjerama

nisu mogli mijenjati zakoni i osnove fizike i elektrotehnike, posljedice se reflektiraju na

funkcioniranje elektroenergetskog sustava, cijene, razvojne planove i sigurnost opskrbe.

Očekuje se da će rasprava pokazati u kojem pravcu treba tražiti rješenja provedbene politike, koja

će poštivati tehničke i energetske uvjete funkcioniranja energetskog sustava, doprinijeti razvoju

energetskog tržišta, povećanju energetske učinkovitosti, korištenju obnovljivih izvora i razvoju

novih tehnologija.

U Zagrebu 28. studenog 2014.

Predsjednik Hrvatskog energetskog društva

Dr.sc. Goran Granić





FOREWORD

The 23rd Forum is dedicated to the issues of implementation of EU climate and energy policy up to

2030. If the necessity of CO2 emissions reduction would be accepted, as the highest EU political

goal, the basic problem of the implementation policy is how to implement the envisaged goals.

Until now, the implementation policy, commonly stated as 3x20, has shown as insufficient to

achieve the goals. The main problems of the implementation policy in the professional discussions

are stated as follow:

Should the CO2 emission reduction be stated as the single goal or should the reaming two

goals (RES and energy efficiency), which in fact are means of achieving CO2 emission

reduction, be retained as well,

How to insure the financing of the climate policy measures due to the fact that Emission

Trade System has not fulfilled expectations,

How to define renewable energy sources position without disturbance of the market.

The recent period shows the great confrontation of the market and administration to the detriment

of the market. If the current processes continue there will be less of the market and more of the

administration. Therefore, for the period around 2050 - the market would not be a basic concept of

the relation in EU.

Among professionals can be noticed certain frustration due to the fact that political solutions

neglect objective problems in energy systems, especially in electric power system which is the

most sophisticated due to necessary balance between production and demand side. The political

measures couldn’t change the basic principles and laws of physics and electrical engineering. Due

to that, consequences are reflected on the operation of electric power system, the prices, the

development plans and security of supply as well.

It is expected that the discussion will show the way in which the solutions of implementation policy

should be sought. The solutions which will comply with the technical and energy conditions of

electric power system functioning, contribute to the energy market development, to the increase of

renewable energy sources as well as to the developing of new technologies.

Zagreb, 28th November 2014

Chairman of the Croatian Energy Association

Goran Granić, PhD





ŽIVOTOPISI PREDAVAČA / PRESENTERS CURRICULUM VITAE





Goran Granić

Born: 18 April 1950 in Baška Voda, Republic of Croatia

Education:

1979 Ph.D. Electrical Engineering, University of Zagreb

1976 M.Sc. Electrical Engineering, University of Zagreb

1972 B.Sc. Electrical Engineering, University of Zagreb

Professional experience:

2004 – present Energy Institute Hrvoje Pozar, Zagreb

Manager

2000 – 2003 Government of the Republic of Croatia

Deputy president of the Government of the Republic of Croatia

Vice-president of the Government of the Republic of Croatia

1994 – 1999 Energy Institute Hrvoje Pozar, Zagreb

Manager

1992 – 1995 Parliament of the Republic of Croatia

First Vice-president of the Croatian Parliament

Member of the Croatian Parliament

Chairman of the Committee for Physical Planning and Environmental

Protection

1991 – 1992 Institute for Electric Power Research, Zagreb

Advisor in the Institute for Electric Power Research

1990 – 1991 HEP (Croatian Electric Utility), Zagreb

First General manager of HEP

1987 – 1990 ZEOH (Electricity Company of Croatia), Zagreb

Manager of Development Department, Member of Development

Department Board

1973 – 1987 Institute for Electric Power Research, Zagreb

Deputy manager of Study Department

Director of the study unit

Other:

more than 160 publications in the field of energy sector planning

Chairman of the Croatian Energy Association (HED – CEA) – WEC National Committee

Member and Secretary-General of the Croatian Technical Academy 2006 – 2012





Einari Kisel

Einari Kisel is the Regional Manager for Europe in the World Energy

Council Secretariat. Before joining WEC in 2012, he was engaged for 10

years as the Undersecretary of State for Energy in the Ministry of

Economy of Estonia. Until 2002 he worked for 7 years in the Estonian

energy utility Eesti Energia, during last years as the Director of Trade. He

has received Master degrees both in Thermal Engineering and in Business

Administration from Tallinn University of Technology, and is currently a

PhD Candidate in Energy Policy in the same university. Married with 3

sons.

Gerald Stang

Gerald Stang is a Senior Associate Analyst with the EU Institute of

Security Studies where he researches energy, climate and security

challenges. He holds BSc and MSc degrees in chemical engineering from

the University of Saskatchewan and an MA in international affairs from

the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University. In

2013, he co-directed a task force on EU energy security involving experts

from multiple EU institutions and culminating in the final report, “Energy

moves and power shifts: EU foreign policy and global energy security”.

Thomas Klopfer

Born: 7 May 1963

Education:

1984 – 1991 Diploma in Business administration, RWTH Aachen,

Universität Köln, Germany

1983 – 1988 Diploma in Electrical engineering (incl. power

engineering), RWTH Aachen

1996 Doctoral degree, Economics, Universität Köln

Work experience:

2011 – today RWE East

Head of Strategy

2008 – 2010 RWE AG, Essen, Germany

Head of Business Development Region B

2007 – 2008 RWE Power AG

Head of Market Development

1995 – 2007 Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Düsseldorf, Germany

1990 – 1995 Energiewirtschaftliches Institut der Uni Köln, Köln, Germany





Tahir Kapetanović

Tahir Kapetanovic Head of National Control Centre of Austrian Power

Grid AG. He is also convenor of ENTSO-E (www.entsoe.eu) Operational

Security Network Code and vice-chairman of TSC Steering Commitee

(www.tscnet.eu). From 2001 to 2011 he was Director Electricity at

Austrian regulator E-Control and contributed to electricity market

development in Austria. Since 2005 he helped shape EU Smart Grids

developments as member of EU Technology Platform and chair of several

EU working groups. Before E-Control he was 9 years on various

assignments in industry and 4 years university assistant and lecturer.

Matthias Maedge

Matthias Maedge has been appointed Deputy Secretary General of

NGVA Europe as of January 2014. Matthias has been in charge of the

association´s liaison office in Brussels since 2010 and is responsible for

representing the interests of the Natural Gas Vehicle related industry at a

political and the EU institutional level. He joined the team of NGVA

Europe from the very start in 2008 and spent 2,5 years in Madrid, Spain.

Prior to his involvement in the gas vehicle sector, he was working for a

member of the German parliament (Bundestag) in Berlin. Matthias holds a

Master degree in Politics, Media & Communication and professional

translation and kicked off his career as an officer in the German army.





Carsten Rolle

Dr. Carsten Rolle, born in 1970 in Bonn, has been Head of the

Department of Energy and Climate Policy at the Federation of German

Industries (BDI) in Berlin since 2013. He has been secretary general of the

German Member Committee of the World Energy Council since 2005,

when he moved the association to Berlin. After completing a year of

military service, he studied economics at the universities of Bonn and

Münster, as well as Trinity College, Dublin. Upon receiving his degree in

1996, he became research assistant at the Center of Applied Economic

Research Münster, where he worked on international benchmarking

projects on behalf of the Bertelsmann Foundation. In 2000, he received his doctorate and was

awarded the August Lösch Prize for outstanding academic research in the field of Regional

Science. He began his career at the Federation of German Industries in 2001, when he became

manager responsible for telecommunications and postal services. From 2008 until 2012 he was

Head of the Department of Energy and Raw Materials where he developed the BDI’s Raw Material

Strategy and initiated the foundation of the Resource Alliance (Rohstoffallianz) of the German

industry. During this time he also was a lecturer at Viadrina University, Frankfurt/Oder for

industrial policy. In his current position he recently lead a comprehensive study project

(Kompetenzinitiative Energie der deutschen Industrie) and successfully coordinated BDI’s

lobbying activities in Brussels and Berlin regarding the renewable energies act and the new energy

and environmental state aid guidelines. Carsten Rolle is married and has two children.

András Jenei

András Jenei is currently Advisor to the Ministry of National

Development, State Secretary for Energy Affairs, Hungary and Head of

Energy Institute at Centre for Fair Political Analysis, a think-tank based in

Budapest. He studied engineering management at Technical University of

Budapest (BME) and holds a BSc from Political Sciences at King

Sigismund College. His research fields are energy policy, unconventional

gas exploration and energy security focusing on natural gas in Eastern

Europe, the former Soviet Union and the Caspian region. At

unconventional gas in the past five years his main focus was on tight and

shale gas upstream in the CEE region with a focus on regulatory

framework and environmental issues.





Marco Margheri

Marco Margheri is Edison's Senior Vice President of Public Affairs.

In this capacity, he oversees Edison advocacy towards EU and national

institutions and stakeholders. He also serves within various industry

groups and panels, including as chair of Eurelectric's Retail Consumer

Committee and Vice President of the Italian Chapter of WEC. Marco is

a Council member of the European Council on Foreign relations and of

the Italian Institute for International Affairs.

Istvan Szabo

Istvan Szabo is 46 years old. Basic diploma is about Electrical

engineering MSc in 1992. He has completed his PhD thesis in 1998 at

Budapest University of Technology and Economics (BUTE) about

Solar Powered Power Supply System optimization. He completed an

MBA as well at BUTE in 2006. He worked on R&D and operation at

electronics industrial companies in several Engineering and

Engineering management position. He has 5-6 years project

management and marketing management experience as well. He

worked for a techtransfer firm on Business Development issues. He has system view and intuitive

solution researcher attitude. He is looking continuously and relentlessly for optimization and also

he tries to develop solutions including unexpected combination of different disciplines.

Dubravko Sabolić

Dubravko Sabolić (born in 1969 in Zagreb, Croatia) obtained his Ph.D.

degree in electrical engineering and his M.S. degree in economics from the

University of Zagreb, Croatia, in 2004 and 2007, respectively. Since July 1994

he has been working for the Croatian Electricity Utility (HEP). From April 2007

to June 2012 he was the CEO of the Croatian TSO (then called HEP-TSO, Llc.).

Now he works for the same company, Croatian Transmission Operator, Llc., as

a Compliance Officer. From December 2001 to September 2004 he served as a

Commissioner at the Croatian regulatory authority for telecoms (Telecommunications Council).

From 2006 to 2011 he has been a member of Working groups for preparation of negotiations on

Croatia's accession to the EU in two Chapters: Information society and media, and Energy. He is

also an Associate Professor at the University of Zagreb, Croatia, where he teaches Engineering

Economics for undergraduate students of electrical engineering and computing, as well as

Competition Law for post-graduate students of economics.





Ivica Toljan

Ivica Toljan was born in Prokike, Lika-Senj County, Republic of Croatia.

Completed elementary school, secondary electrical school and the Faculty of

Electrical Engineering and Computing (Energy program) in Zagreb. Graduate

management study, MBA in Zagreb, and graduate Macroeconomics Study at

the Faculty of Economics, Zagreb. He finished his Ph. D. studies in FER

Zagreb at 2010 on the thesis “Dynamic characteristics of connection between

power systems with different synchronous parameters”. Member of UCTE

Steering Committee (2000-2004-2008) and President of CIGRÉ National

Committee Croatia in the two mandates (2000-2004-2008). Member of IEEE. Has worked in HEP

in the following positions: National dispatcher for 7 years, power system energy-economic

analysis, power accounting, preparation of IPP projects, restructuring, managing director of

Transmission and Control, member of HEP Management Board responsible for transmission and

control. Author of Croatian Grid Code. Project manager for reconnection of UCTE synchronous

zones 1. and 2. Since 2008 he works in HROTE (Croatian market operator). Since 2014 he works

in Croatian Power Exchange - CROPEX. Has 51 published technical and research papers.

Željko Tomšić

Željko Tomšić is working at the University of Zagreb Faculty of

Electrical Engineering and Computing (FER) from 1991. From 2004 to

2008 he had the position of Assistant Minister for Energy and Mining in

the Ministry of Economy. From 2008 to 2009 he was Member of HEP d.d.

Management Board. Member of the EU research and development Energy

Programme Committee for FP7 and Horizon 2020 Energy Challenge.

Head of Government Working Group for preparation of Accession

Negotiations with EU on the chapter 15 – Energy. As professor at the FER his teaching subjects

are: Energy Consumption Measuring and Analysis; Energy, Environment and Sustainable

Development; Energy-Economic Models for Construction of Electricity System; Energy

Management and Energy Efficiency and Environmental Impact of Electric Power System, Planning

of Construction of Generating Plants in Uncertain Conditions. His specializations are: energy,

environment and economy in energy; especially focusing on electric power system planning,

environmental protection, energy markets, energy management in industry and buildings, economy

in energy management. He has written more than 100 R&D papers and he is co-author of books

“Power Plants and Environment”, “Sistematic energy management and environment impacts in

industry”. Leader of many projects for Croatian and international institutions. He has given over 80

invited lectures at international and national conferences.





Tomislav Novosel

Tomislav Novosel was born in 1987 in Zagreb. He is Research Assistant at

Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture at University of

Zagreb. Primary field of his research is energy planning with the focus on

high penetration of renewable energy sources as well as integration of energy

flows. Until now, he published four scientific papers two of which are in CC

journals. In addition, Tomislav is a project member of a few projects financed

by European Commission, such as ERASME, E-Seap and GERONIMO II –

Biogas as well.

Vladimir Potočnik

Vladimir Potočnik was born in 1936 in Travnik. In 1960 graduated from

the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture in Zagreb,

where he won a master's degree in 1975. He was employed at the

Elektroprojekt, Zagreb from 1960 to 2001, where he participated in and lead

more than one hundred projects in Croatia and abroad. He initiated a number

of projects in Croatia and participates in defining waste management strategy

and legislation in Croatia. He has published more than 80 papers in

professional publications and proceedings of the meetings. He is also the

author of two books. He is active in more professional associations for energy and environment.





SAŽETCI REFERATA / PAPER ABSTRACTS





Dr.sc. Goran Granić, Laszlo Horvath, Željko Jurić, Toni Borković, Bruno Židov, Marko

Matosović, Martina Mikulić, Marko Karan

Energetski institut Hrvoje Požar

KAKO POSTAVITI EKONOMSKE ODNOSE NA TRŽIŠTU ENERGIJE ZA

OSTVARIVANJE POLITIKE OČUVANJA KLIME

Sažetak

Uvođenje namjenskog poreza, ili naknade na CO2 kao jedinstvene mjere za sve kupce energije koji

koriste fosilna goriva za transformaciju energije je najjednostavniji, najjeftiniji i najučinkovitiji

način da se cijena politike očuvanja klime ugradi u cijenu energije. Ovo pretpostavlja ukidanje svih

drugih oblika prikupljanja sredstava za pojedine mjere klimatske politike, a postojao bi samo jedan

izvor prikupljenih sredstava iz kojeg bi se financirale mjere smanjenja emisija, obnovljivi izvori,

energetska učinkovitost, tehnološki razvoj i edukacija.

Što se tiče implementacije novog modela rješenja treba tražiti u postojećim modelima,

procedurama i odnosima, kako bi se povećanje novih administrativnih troškova svelo na minimum.

Moguća rješenja su: preuzimanje ili dijela ili u cijelosti troška PDV-a iz Fonda koji bi upravljao

sredstvima posebnog poreza ili naknada na CO2. Ovo omogućava da potpora bude do 25 posto i

nema utjecaja na državni proračun. Druga mogućnost je uvođenje posebnih premija za izvođenje

projekata tamo gdje je potrebna potpora veća od 25 posto ili potpora kreditiranju putem poslovnih

banaka ili izvođača radova.

U novom sustavu potrebno je izbjeći bilo koje oblike privilegiranosti i sačuvati tržište energije kao

temeljni odnos u energetskom sektoru.

Za sve nove projekte treba propisati ciljeve energetske učinkovitosti na najvišoj razini. To se

posebno odnosi na zgradarstvo, gdje je potrebno zakonski definirati standarde izolacija i energetske

učinkovitosti.

Za sve uređaje i postrojenja treba odrediti standarde kvalitete te isključivati s tržišta sve one uređaje

i postrojenja koja ne zadovoljavaju minimalnu energetsku učinkovitost.

U prometu je od velike važnosti smanjiti starosnu dob automobila i poticati uključivanje u promet

sve učinkovitijih automobila. Jedan dio mjera može biti poticajan, a drugi dio restriktivan kao npr.

isključivanje iz prometa, zbog starosti i visine emisija CO2.





HOW TO SET UP ECONOMIC RELATIONS IN THE ENERGY MARKET FOR THE

REALIZATION OF CLIMATE PRESERVATION POLICY

Abstract

The simplest, easiest and the most efficient way to integrate climate preservation policy cost into

the energy price is by introduction of dedicated tax or CO2 charge as an unique measure for all

fossil fuel energy buyers. The above stated implies abolishment of all existing financial resource

collecting forms for particular climate policy measures and establishment of only one source from

which all measures, like CO2 emission reduction, renewable energy sources, energy efficiency,

technology development as well as education, would be financed.

In order to implement the new model as efficiently as possible, with a minimal increase in an

administration, the solution should be sought in existing models, procedures and relations. Possible

solutions are, firstly, to take only a part of or the whole VAT costs from the Fund which would

manage financial funds of dedicated tax or CO2 charge. By this, subsidy can be up to 25% with no

influence on state budget. Second possibility is an introduction of special premium for the ongoing

projects, i.e. where the needed subsidy is greater than 25% or credit financing support through

business banks or contractor.

The new system needs to avoid any form of privileges and should preserve the energy market as a

base relation in the energy sector.

The energy efficiency goals should be prescribed on the highest level for all the new projects. This

is particularly important for buildings where it is necessary to legally define insulation as well as

energy efficiency standards.

Furthermore, for all appliances and facilities it is necessary to determine quality standards and to

decommission those that do not fulfil energy efficiency minimum.

In the transport sector it is of high importance to decrease average age of used cars and in parallel

deploy as efficient cars as possible. A part of measures can be restrictive through withdrawing from

traffic due to age and the amount of CO2 emissions, while the second part of measures can be

incentive.





Einari Kisel

World Energy Council

SVJETSKI ENERGETSKI SCENARIJI DO 2050.: UTJECAJ MODELA ENERGETSKOG

UPRAVLJANJA NA BUDUĆNOST EUROPSKOG ENERGETSKOG SEKTORA

Sažetak

World Energy Council istražio je utjecaj dva krajnja modela upravljanja energetskim sektorom na

razvoj globalnog gospodarstva i klime. Scenarij „Jazz“ opisuje svijet u kojem su investicije na

energetskim tržištima isključivo tržišno orijentirane i realizirane od strane tvrtki. Scenarij

„Symphony“ opisuje svijet u kojem su odluke o investicijama u energetici donesene od strane

pojedinih vlada.

Prema rezultatima, u slučaju scenarija „Jazz“ postigli bismo niže cijene energije, ali bi pri tome

došlo do više i šire potrošnje energije te, također, i do većeg utjecaja na okoliš. U slučaju scenarija

„Symphony“ cijene energenata bi bile nešto više, ali utjecaj na okoliš te energetska učinkovitost bi

ostvarili bolje rezultate. Doduše, na svijetu bi bilo više energetski siromašnih ljudi.

Također, može biti uočeno kako su krajnji energetski „miksevi“ ta dva scenarija vrlo različiti.

Naime, scenarij „Jazz“ bi zadržao udio fosilnih goriva približan današnjem, dok bi scenarij

„Symphony“ podržao razvoj i upotrebu tehnologije temeljene na sunčevoj energiji te izdvajanju i

spremanju ugljikovog dioksida.

Modeliranje je provedeno za različite regije u svijetu. Iz tih izvještaja mogu biti iščitani i rezultati

za Europu. Time je za razmišljanje dana tema o ulozi vlada pri implementaciji EU energetske i

klimatske strategije do 2030. godine.

Prezentacija će ukratko opisati metodologiju izrade studije, pojasniti pretpostavke scenarija i

naglasiti ključne rezultate za svjetski i europski energetski sektor.





WORLD ENERGY SCENARIOS 2050: IMPACT OF THE ENERGY GOVERNANCE

MODELS TO THE FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN ENERGY SECTOR

Abstract

World Energy Council has explored the impact of two extreme governance models of energy sector

to the global economic and climate developments. Scenario “Jazz” describes the world, where

investments in the energy markets are made by the companies on the purely economic basis.

Scenario “Symphony“ describes the world, where decisions about the energy investments are made

by the governments.

It appears that in case of Scenario “Jazz” we would reach lower energy prices, but it would also

bring along higher and wider consumption of energy, and much higher environmental impact. In

case of Scenario “Symphony” energy prices would be somewhat higher, but environmental and

energy efficiency would deliver better results, and there will be more energy-poor people around

the world.

It can also be observed, that resulting energy mixes of these two scenarios are very different. When

Scenario “Jazz” would leave the share of fossil fuels nearly to the current levels, then Scenario

“Symphony” supports strongly development of Solar and Carbon Capture, Utilisation and

Sequestration Technologies.

The modelling was also made separately for different regions of the world, the results for Europe

can be observed from the report as well. This provides a fruit for thought about the role of the

governments in the implementation of the EU 2030 Energy and Climate Strategy. The presentation

would describe shortly the methodology of the study, clarifies the assumptions of the scenarios and

highlights the main outcomes of the study in for the world and for European energy sector.





Gerald Stang

EU Institute for Security Studies

KLJUČNA PITANJA ZA POSTIZANJE CILJEVA EU-a ZA SMANJENJE EMISIJA BEZ

NAPUŠTANJA OSTALIH ENERGETSKIH CILJEVA

Sažetak

Što treba razmotriti kako bi se osiguralo postizanje novih ciljeva EU-a do 2030. godine, vezano uz

emisije stakleničkih plinova i OIE, koji bi bili usklađeni s ostalim energetskim ciljevima, kako EU-

a tako i njenih zemalja članica, kao što su energetska sigurnost i energetska dostupnost? Kako bi se

ostali energetski ciljevi trebali odraziti na poticanje energetske učinkovitosti, nadogradnju

elektroenergetskih sustava radi prihvaćanja raznih obnovljivih izvora energije te na razvijanje

politika za smanjenje ukupnih CO2 emisija? Ključni čimbenik za postizanje svih europskih

energetskih ciljeva su otvorena tržišta - kako za otvaranja unutarnjeg energetskog tržišta, tako i za

sustav trgovanjem emisija (ETS), a zbog omogućavanja upravljanja dijelom stakleničkih plinova s

europskog kontinenta. Međutim, i kada će tržišta funkcionirati i dalje će postojati velika odstupanja

između ciljeva, instrumenata i razine integriranosti tržišta raspoloživih za različite zemlje i regije

unutar Europe. Birajući troškovno najučinkovitiji mehanizam za postizanje novih ciljeva zahtijevat

će upotrebu raspoložive fleksibilnosti – unaprijeđeni sustav trgovanja emisijama, prenosivi

nacionalni ciljevi za emisije koje ne podliježu ETS-u te brzo širenje niza troškovno učinkovitih

mogućnosti vezanih uz obnovljive izvore energije. Upotreba spomenute fleksibilnosti treba olakšati

tijek investicija prema unapređenju energetskih sustava – bilo gdje u svijetu – bez zahtjeva za

odricanjem od ciljeva energetske sigurnosti, ni lokalno ni na svjetskoj razini.

KEY QUESTIONS FOR ACHIEVING EU EMISSION REDUCTIONS WITHOUT

ABANDONING OTHER ENERGY GOALS

Abstract

What considerations must be addressed to ensure that efforts to achieve the EU’s new 2030

emissions and renewables targets are compatible with the other energy goals of the EU and its

member states: energy security, and energy affordability? How should these other energy goals be

addressed when pursuing energy efficiency improvements, upgrading electricity systems to handle

different renewable energy sources, and developing policies to reduce overall CO2 emissions?

Markets have been defined as being central to achieving all of Europe’s energy goals – both the

creation of an EU internal energy market and the use of the Emissions Trading System (ETS) to

allow a market for managing a portion of the continent’s greenhouse gas emissions. But once these

markets are in place and operational, there will still be great variances among the goals,

instruments, and level of market integration available for the different countries and regions of

Europe. Choosing the most cost effective mechanisms for pursuing the new goals will require

effective use of the flexibility that is available – an improved ETS, tradable national targets for

non-ETS emissions, and a rapidly widening array of cost-effective renewable energy options.

Sufficient use of this flexibility should facilitate the flow of energy investments toward energy

system improvements where there is low-hanging fruit – anywhere in the continent – without

requiring that local or continental energy security goals be sacrificed.





Matthias Maedge

NGVA Europe

METAN KAO GORIVO ZA VOZILA U EUROPI

Sažetak

NGVA Europa je svjesna važnosti promocije prirodnog plina i biometana kao važnih goriva za

vozila u Europi.

Europska komisija je nedavno usvojila paket Čista energija za promet koji uključuje Direktivu o

uvođenju infrastrukture za alternativna goriva SPP i UPP. U razdoblju od 24 mjeseca države

članice moraju u svojim nacionalnim političkim okvirima podnijeti svoje planove razvoja stanica

za opskrbu prirodnim plinom i strategiju za goriva u bliskoj budućnosti.

Europska unija ima novu politiku za prometnu infrastrukturu koja povezuje kontinent između

istoka i zapada, sjevera i juga (TEN-T). Alternativna goriva će se uzeti u obzir za smanjenje emisija

CO2, poboljšanje kvalitete zraka u urbanim područjima, smanjenje ovisnosti o nafti i povećanje

konkurentnosti europske industrije.

Sva ova istraživanja moraju imati fokus u Obzoru 2020., u kojem će se čista vozila s SPP i UPP

koristiti za stvaranje „pametnih gradova i zajednica“. Za postizanje ove ideje, uključeni smo u

projekt Plavi koridor kako bi pokazali da je UPP prava alternativa za srednje i velike prometne

udaljenosti kroz stvaranje novih punionica u različitim zemljama poput Španjolske, Francuske i

Portugala.

METHANE AS A VEHICLE FUEL IN EUROPE

Abstract

NGVA Europe is aware of the importance of the promotion of Natural Gas & biomethane as an

important vehicle fuels in Europe.

The European Commission has recently adopted the Clean Power for Transport package including

a Directive for deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure for CNG and LNG. Currently, the

Member States have to report in their National Policy Frameworks, in a period of 24 months, their

natural gas filling station development plans and fuel strategy in the nearest future.

The European Union has a new transport infrastructure policy that connects the continent between

East and West, North and South (TEN-T) and alternatives fuels will be taken into consideration for

reducing the CO2 emissions, improve the air quality in urban areas, reduce the dependence with oil

and enhance the competitiveness of the European industry.

All of these researches have to be focus in the Horizon 2020, in which clean vehicles with CNG

and LNG will be used to create “smart cities and communities”. For achieving this idea, we are

involved in the LNG Blue Corridor Project to demonstrate that the LNG is a real alternative for

medium and long distance transport through the creation of new fuel stations in different countries

such as Spain, France or Portugal.





Istvan Szabo

ElectroMagnetic Consulting

ODRŽIVO OBLIKOVANJE PROJEKATA PAMETNIH MREŽA

Sažetak

Pokušavajući riješiti probleme/poteškoće provedbe projekata uspostave pametnih mreža u

posljednjih nekoliko godina došli smo do važnog zaključka. Tehnologija nije uvjet koji nedostaje

za upotrebu tehnologija pametnih mreža u stvarnom vremenu na području neke države.

Tehnologija je razvijena i pametne mreže su spremne za uporabu, inženjeri i inženjerska struka

samo čekaju znak da krenu u to.

Trenutno su u tijeku rasprave o tehnologijama pametnih mreža, međutim, to su sve marginalne

rasprave o pitanjima kao što su sigurnost elektroenergetske mreže, mjerenja, elektro mobilnosti i

dr. Projekti su većinom fokusirani na industrijske sudionike koji evidentno žele prodati svoju

najmoderniju tehnologiju, pritom ne uzimajući u obzir interese cjelokupnog društva. Očekivano

pitanje je: „Tko posjeduje društvenu odgovornost budućnosti te kao dio nje i odgovornost prema

elektroenergetskom sustavu?“

Što bi se moralo dogoditi kako bi se pokrenuo stvarni razvoj energetskog sustava 21. stoljeća?

Kako osvijestiti one koji donose odluke i energetske institucije? Jesu li ti sporedni projekti

pametnih mreža prirodna evolucija konačnih rješenja i sustava?

SUSTAINABLE SMARTGRID PROJECT DESIGN

Abstract

Living together with the SG project generation issues in the last years a significant conclusion

revealed from the unknown universe. Technology is not the missing condition for a real-time

working country-wide SG power system realization. Technologies are developed, and „SG-ready”.

Engineering society is waiting for the signal to jump till the Moon or even farther.

There are technical discussions about SG technologies. All there are marginals (ie. network safety

issues, metering issues, electromobility etc.) and projects are mostly targeting the industrial players

which obviously want to sell their utmost technologies taking generally not into consideration the

overall social interests. The most anticipated question is: Who owns the social responsibility of the

future (and as a part of it) its contemporary electric power utility system’s responsibility?

What should happen in order to start real development of 21st century’s power system? How to

open eyes of decision makers and energy institutions? Are these auxiliary SG projects natural

evolution of the final solutions and systems?





Dubravko Sabolić

Hrvatski operator prijenosnog sustava d.o.o.

STATISTIČKO MODELIRANJE PROIZVODNJE VELIKOG SUSTAVA

VJETROELEKTRANA – STUDIJA SLUČAJA

Sažetak

U radu su prezentirani jednostavni, i istodobno vrlo precizni, deskriptivno-statistički modeli

različitih statičkih i dinamičkih parametara proizvodnje energije iz velikog sustava vjetroelektrana

kojim upravlja Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) iz SAD-a. Na kraju 2013. sustav je imao

4515 MW instalirane snage. Bazu za izračunavanje brojnih eksperimentalnih distribucija

predstavljaju pet minutna očitanja ukupne proizvodnje tog sustava, snimljena i objavljena od strane

BPA-a. Iz tih podataka izvedene su teoretske distribucije, koje su se pokazale vrlo preciznima, što

je potvrđeno rigoroznim statističkim testovima. Izvedene su distribucije sljedećih veličina: ukupna

snaga proizvodnje u postocima od ukupne instalirane snage; promjene u ukupnoj snazi proizvodnje

u 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 45 i 60-minutnim intervalima, također u postocima od ukupne instalirane

snage; trajanje intervala u kojima je proizvodnja manja od nekog predefiniranog praga izraženog u

postocima od ukupno instalirane snage. Razmatrano je i ograničenje instalirane snage ako je ono

određeno regulacijskim zahtjevom sustava vjetroelektrana. Prezentirani modeli mogu se

upotrebljavati u analizama ekonomike i politike elektroenergetskog sustava, što je također

obrađeno u ovom radu.

Stavovi izraženi u ovom radu autorovi su osobni stavovi, koji ne odražavaju nužno stavove Hrvatskog

operatora prijenosnog sustava d.o.o., niti se mogu pripisati tom poduzeću.

STATISTICAL MODELING OF LARGE WIND PLANT SYSTEM’S GENERATION – A

CASE STUDY

Abstract

This paper presents simplistic, yet very accurate, descriptive statistical models of various static and

dynamic parameters of energy output from a large system of wind plants operated by Bonneville

Power Administration (BPA), USA. The system’s size at the end of 2013 was 4515 MW of

installed capacity. The 5-minute readings from the beginning of 2007 to the end of 2013, recorded

and published by BPA, were used to derive a number of experimental distributions, which were

then used to devise theoretic statistical models with merely one or two parameters. In spite of the

simplicity, they reproduced experimental data with great accuracy, which was checked by rigorous

tests of goodness-of-fit. Statistical distribution functions were obtained for the following wind

generation-related quantities: total generation as percentage of total installed capacity; change in

total generation power in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 45, and 60 minutes as percentage of total installed

capacity; duration of intervals with total generated power, expressed as percentage of total installed

capacity, lower than certain pre-specified level. Limitation of total installed wind plant capacity,

when it is determined by regulation demand from wind plants, is discussed, too. The models

presented here can be utilized in analyses related to power system economics/policy, which is also

briefly discussed in the paper.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of, and

should not be attributed to, the Croatian Transmission System Operator, Ltd.





Ivica Toljan

CROPEX – Hrvatska burza električne energije d.o.o.

TRAJEKTORIJE TRANSAKTIVNE ENERGETIKE EUROPSKE I HRVATSKE

ENERGETSKE POLITIKE

Sažetak

Koncept transaktivne energetike traži harmonizirano angažiranje svih subjekata povezanih u

elektroenergetski sustav na tržišnim temeljima. Svaka pojedina zemlja kreira svoj smjer razvoja

(trajektorija) energetskog sektora, ali u okvirima osnovnih trajektorija koje su propisane u

europskim pravnim stečevinama (fr. Acquis Communautaire - AC), od kojih su neke obvezatne, a

neke su samo preporuke.

Transaktivna energetika koristi ekonomske signale ili poticaje za upotrebom svih dostupnih novih

tehnologija u energetskom sektoru, od proizvodnje do potrošnje, na način koji je svakako efikasniji

nego prethodni. Trajektorije određuje implementacijska politika čija je osnovna karakteristika

neprihvaćanje odgađanja donošenja odluka. Uveden je sustav kontrole provođenja odluka – (engl.

Benchmarking).

Nakon postavljenih ciljeva za 2020. godinu europski AC je za 2030. godinu postavio dodatno vrlo

ambiciozne ciljeve koji će se reflektirati i na troškove proizvodnje energije, a time i na ulazne

troškove europskog gospodarstva. Cilj je 2050. godine smanjiti emisiju CO2 iz energetskog sektora

za 80 posto.

Razvoj iskorištavanja nalazišta plina i uvođenja novih tehnologija hidrauličnog frakturiranja na

globalnoj razini SAD pozicionira na sasvim drugačije mjesto nego prije. Postupno se zamjenjuje

ugljen s plinom koji je dosad dominirao kao energent u proizvodnji električne energije. Rezultati

analiza za sljedećih 100 godina govore o tri puta jeftinijoj opskrbi plinom u SAD-u nego u Europi.

Kako se postojeća tehnologija bušenja želi primijeniti i u Europi za očekivati je i značajniju

promjenu europske energetske politike.

U Republici Hrvatskoj, također, postoje prognoze koje bi mogle bitno promijeniti sliku hrvatske

energetike. Treba imati na umu da pronalaženje novih energetskih izvora ne znači odustajanje od

koncepta liberaliziranog tržišta na kojem vlada zakon ponude i potražnje. Ujedno, još uvijek nije u

potpunosti poznat čimbenik utjecaja na okoliš. Zbog toga koncept transaktivne energetike s

definiranjem odgovarajućih trajektorija daje optimalne odgovore.

Sustav poticaja za obnovljive izvore koji je na snazi i u Republici Hrvatskoj na taj način postaje

upitan kao i nastali problem velike tržišne distorzije. Sustav poticaja postaje prepreka razvoju

otvorenog tržišta. Naročito je izražen problem energije uravnoteženja koji stvara velike troškove

rezervnih proizvodnih kapaciteta, kao i uskladištenja energije.





TRANSACTIVE ENERGY TRAJECTORIES OF THE EUROPEAN AND CROATIAN

ENERGY POLICY

Abstract

The concept of transactive energy requires harmonized operation of all entities involved in the

electrical power system on market-oriented bases. Each country creates independently its direction

of the development (trajectory) of its power sector, but within the framework of basic trajectories

laid down by the acquis communautaire, some of which are mandatory and some of which are only

recommended.

Transactive energy uses economic signals or incentives for using all available new technologies in

the energy sector, from production to consumption, in a way that is definitely more efficient than

the previous one. The trajectories are determined by the implementation policy whose principal

characteristic is non-acceptance of delay in making decisions. The benchmarking system has been

introduced.

After setting the goals for 2020, the acquis communautaire additionally set very ambitious goals for

2030, which will also be reflected on the costs of energy generation, and consequently on the input

costs of the European economy. The intention is to reduce CO2 emission from the energy sector by

80% until 2050.

The development of exploitation of gas deposits and the introduction of new technologies places

the USA on the global level in a completely different position than before. Coal is being gradually

substituted by gas, which has so far been the dominating energy source for generation of electrical

energy. The results of analyses indicate that gas supply in the USA will be three times cheaper than

in Europe in the next 100 years. Taking into consideration the intended application of the current

drilling technology also in Europe, it is to be expected that a significant change in the European

energy policy will occur.

There are also forecasts in the Republic of Croatia that might significantly change the picture of the

Croatian energy industry. It should be kept in mind that finding new energy sources does not imply

abandoning the concept of liberalized market governed by the principles of offer and demand. The

factor of the impact on the environment is also not yet completely known. This is the reason why

the concept of transactive energy with defining corresponding trajectories provides optimum

answers.

The system of incentives for renewable energy sources which is also in force in the Republic of

Croatia, as well as the emerging problem of huge market distortion, becomes questionable. The

system of incentives becomes an obstacle for the development of an open market. The problem of

balancing energy is especially pronounced as it creates huge costs related to backup production

capacities and storage of energy.





Željko Tomšić, Marijana Pongrašić

Fakultet elektrotehnike i računarstva, Sveučilište u Zagrebu

EKONOMSKA ANALIZA DOBITI I TROŠKOVA IMPLEMENTACIJE NAPREDNIH

MREŽA

Sažetak

U radu su prikazane smjernice za provođenje analize dobiti i troškova projekata koji se odnose na

implementaciju naprednih sustava u prijenosu i distribuciji električne energije, odnosno projekata

koji doprinose izgradnji naprednih mreža (Smart Grid). Također su navedena ograničenja današnje

elektroenergetske mreže, te rješenja koja nudi napredna mreža.

S ekonomskog stajališta, glavna karakteristika naprednih mreža su velike početne investicije, dok

se koristi pojavljuju tek nakon određenog vremena, s rizikom da ostvarene uštede budu manje od

predviđenih. Stoga je prije same implementacije projekata potrebno provesti sveobuhvatnu analizu

takvih projekata koja se sastoji od ekonomske i kvalitativne analize. U radu je korištena

metodologija razvijena u američkom institutu za energiju, EPRI. Ta se metodologija pokazala

sveobuhvatnom, primjenjivom, ali i jednostavnom i lako razumljivom. Opisani su koraci EPRI

metodologije te karakteristike drugih metodologija koje se oslanjaju na nju: metodologija razvijena

u Joint Research Center-u te metodologija za analizu implementacije naprednih brojila, koje se

često zasebno analiziraju. Definirani su troškovi i dobiti te kategorije u koje se mogu svrstati. Kao

dio kvalitativne analize projekata, opisan je socijalni učinak projekata naprednih mreža. Kod

definiranja troškova posebnu pozornost treba obratiti na implementaciju intermitirajućih izvora

energije kod kojih se javljaju dodatni troškovi. U radu su navedene kategorije dodatnih troškova.

Na kraju referata, nalazi se pregled dosadašnjeg ostvarenja i planovi budućih investicija u projekte

izgradnje naprednih mreža u zemljama Europske Unije.

Rad autora je dio projekta FENISG – “Flexible Energy Nodes in Low Carbon Smart Grid” koji je

financirala Hrvatska zaklada za znanost pod brojem 7766.





COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF SMART GRIDS IMPLEMENTATION

Abstract

Paper presents guidelines for conducting the cost-benefit analysis of Smart Grid projects connected

to the implementation of advanced technologies in electric power system. Restrictions of presented

electric power networks are also mentioned along with solutions that are offered by advanced

electric power network.

From an economic point of view, the main characteristic of advanced electric power network is big

investment, and benefits are seen after some time with risk of being smaller than expected.

Therefore it is important to make a comprehensive analysis of those projects which consist of

economic and qualitative analysis. This report relies on EPRI methodology developed in American

institute for energy. The methodology is comprehensive and useful, but also simple and easy to

understand. Steps of this methodology and main characteristics of methodologies which refer to

EPRI methodology: methodology developed in Joint Research Center and methodologies for

analysing implementation of smart meters in electricity power network are explained. Costs,

benefits and categories in which they can be classified are also defined. As a part of qualitative

analysis, social aspect of Smart Grid projects is described. In cost defining, special attention has to

be paid to projects of integrating electricity from variable renewable energy sources into the power

system because of additional costs. This work summarized categories of additional costs.

In the end of this report, an overview is given of what has been done and what will be done in

European Union.

The work of the authors is a part of FENISG – “Flexible Energy Nodes in Low Carbon Smart Grid” funded

by Croatian Science Foundation under project grant no. 7766.





Tomislav Novosel, Luka Perković, Marko Ban, Goran Krajačić, Neven Duić

Fakultet strojarstva i brodogradnje, Sveučilište u Zagrebu

UPOTREBA „AGENT BASED” ALATA ZA ENERGETSKO PLANIRANJE –

MODELIRANJE ENERGETSKIH POTREBA ZA SEKTOR TRANSPORTA

Sažetak

Sektor transporta predstavlja ozbiljan udio energetske potrošnje diljem EU-a i šire. U Hrvatskoj je,

na primjer, u 2011. godini sektor transporta predstavljao 32,8 posto finalne potrošnje energije, što

ga je činilo drugim najvećim potrošačem energije nakon zgradarstva s 43 posto. Velik dio te

potrošnje odnosi se upravo na cestovni promet i osobna vozila. Zbog veće učinkovitosti, prelazak s

konvencionalnih motora s unutrašnjim izgaranjem na električna vozila potencijalno može značajno

smanjiti energetsku potrošnju sektora transporta. Naš prijašnji rad je pokazao da bi visok stupanj

elektrifikacije osobnih vozila mogao smanjiti finalnu potrošnju energije u sektoru transporta

Hrvatske za približno 53 posto do 2050. godine u usporedbi s referentnim scenarijem. To

predstavlja uštedu od 89 PJ energije. Ako se dodatno u obzir uzme i prelazak s cestovnog i zračnog

prometa na željeznički, uštede se mogu povećati i do 59 posto odnosno 99 PJ.

Potencijalan problem kod visokog stupnja penetracije električnih vozila je njihov utjecaj na

potrošnju energije, posebno u trenutcima vršnog opterećenja. Kako bi se taj utjecaj adekvatno

analizirao, ključno je modelirati satnu distribuciju energetske potrošnje električnih vozila te s tim

distribucijama analizirati njihov utjecaj na ukupni energetski sustav. Cilj ovog rada je upravo

modeliranje navedenih krivulja te primjena istih na modelu hrvatskog elektroenergetskog sustava.

Satna distribucija sektora transporta izračunata je pomoću „agent based“ alata MATSim na

pojednostavljenom geografskom modelu. Utjecaj električnih vozila na elektroenergetski sustav je

modeliran pomoću alata za energetsko planiranje EnergyPLAN.





UTILIZATION OF AGENT BASED MODELLING FOR ENERGY PLANNING –

TRANSPORT ENERGY DEMAND MODELLING

Abstract

The transport sector represents a serious energy consumer in most energy systems across the EU

and wider. In Croatia for example, the transport sector accounted for 32.8% of the final energy

consumption in 2011 making it the second most energy demanding sector right after buildings with

43% and a large portion of that energy demand is linked to road transport and personal vehicles.

Because of their higher efficiency, a modal switch from conventional internal combustion engines

(ICE) to electric vehicles (EVs) has the potential to greatly reduce the overall energy demand of the

transport sector. Our previous work has shown that a widespread electrification of the personal

vehicle fleet could reduce the total final energy demand of the transport sector in Croatia by

roughly 53% by the year 2050 when compared with a business as usual scenario. This represents a

saving of 89 PJ of energy. If a modal split from road and air to rail transport is taken into account

as well, this savings could be increased to 59% or 99 PJ.

A potential issue regarding a high penetration of EVs is their impact on the electricity demand,

especially peak demand. In order to properly analyse this impact it is crucial to model the hourly

distribution of energy demand of EVs, and with this data analyse their impact on the electricity

grid.

The goal of this work is to model the hourly distribution of the energy consumption of EVs and use

the calculated electricity load curves to test their impact on the Croatian energy system. The hourly

demand for the transport sector has been calculated using the agent-based modelling tool MATSim

on a simplified geographic layout. The impact EVs have on the energy system has been modelled

using the EnergyPLAN advanced energy system analyses tool.





Vladimir Potočnik

Hrvatska

ENERGETSKA TRANSFORMACIJA HRVATSKE

Sažetak

Zbog sve očitijih klimatskih promjena, pretežito izazvanih izgaranjem fosilnih goriva i njihovoj

oskudnoj rezervi, u svijetu se odvija energetska transformacija. To je prelazak s fosilnih goriva na

štednju energije ili energetsku učinkovitost (ENEF) i obnovljive izvore energije (OIE).

Predvodnica u energetskoj transformaciji je Njemačka, u kojoj se provodi tzv. „Energiewende“,

koja uz ostalo uključuje zatvaranje postojećih nuklearnih elektrana do 2022., uz intenzivan razvoj

OIE i povećanje energetske učinkovitosti.

Hrvatska je siromašna dokazanim rezervama fosilnih goriva, koja danas sudjeluju s ¾ u potrošnji

primarne energije Hrvatske, a istovremeno je bogata potencijalom energetske učinkovitosti i

obnovljivim izvorima energije. Zbog toga je energetska transformacija Hrvatske opravdana.

ENERGY TRANSFORMATION OF CROATIA

Abstract

Due to obvious climate change, caused mainly by combustion of the fossil fuels, as well as to their

modest reserves, energy transformation is under way. It is the transition from the fossil fuels to

improved energy efficiency (ENEF) and renewable energy sources (RES). Leading role in the

energy transformation has Germany with “Energiewende”, which among other includes closing of

existing nuclear power plants until 2022.

Croatia has very limited proven fossil fuels reserves, which cover ¾ of primary energy in

consumption. Croatia also has large potential for improvements in ENEF and RES. Therefore,

energy transformation of Croatia is justified.





SPONZORI 23. FORUMA / 23rd FORUM SPONSORSHIP

GENERALNI SPONZORI:

POKROVITELJI:

DAROVATELJI:

Generatori i motori d.d.

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