How can cities become big and successful, not just big?
Urban world
The global population is shifting to cities1
Cities will become more powerful than nations2
Megacities merging to form global city regions whose populations dwarf many countries2
1
2
Massive urbanization creates many challenges
1. Existing cities will have to expand and new cities will have to form …
2. Cities are at different levels of maturity and require different approaches
3. Cities are vulnerable
4. Cities are resource-intensive
… requiring infrastructure spend …4
Number of global cities 1970-2020
3
The upside of urbanization is innovation
The upside is cities taking a lead in solving their own problems
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1m and
US$60t to US$70t US$15t to US$25tShortfall Potential
ways to address shortfall
Needed Greater private sector involvementIncrease long-termfinancing optionsBending the cost curve
Innovative infrastructures5
Build from scratch or embed latest technologies and thinking
To create smart, competitive, eco-friendly cities
OverdevelopmentData: Current urban housing plans in China geared to accommodate 3.4 billion people – 2015 population is only 1.4 billion and expected to slow.
Model
Examples
Biggest upside
Biggest threat
Developing infrastructures7
Invest nationally in infrastructure to help drive economic growth
To become more competitive and attract foreign investment
Congestion, pollution and slumsData: Over 30% of city dwellers in 2050 will live in slums
Existing infrastructures6
Invest in and develop infrastructure around existing constraints
To stay competitive as legacy trade, commerce and cultural hubs
Aging infrastructure and sustained underinvestmentData: EY survey: 82% of public and private sector respondents said public’s willingness or ability to pay for infrastructure will have a dramatic or significant impact on future of urban RE and infrastructure
• Masdar City, UAE• Shenzhen, China• Singapore• Hong Kong
• London, UK• New York, US• Sydney, Australia• Tokyo, Japan
• Rio de Janeiro, Brazil• Mumbai, India• Lagos, Nigeria• Jakarta, Indonesia
of global cities are dealing with climate change effects.8
70%of projected GDP is at risk from manmade and natural disasters in 301 cities around the world.9
US$4.6 trillionof urban areas are coastal and face danger from rising sea levels.8
90%
Cities generate 70% of global CO2 emissions.
CO2Cities consume 2/3 of the world’s energy.
4
5
6
The upside of urbanization is greater private sector participation
7
Compact strategies
US$3t in capital investment in urban infrastructure can be saved in the next 15 years by pursuing more compact strategies.10
in Asia and Africa
90%
Optimization
Optimizing vehicle flows can achieve carbon and energy savings of 10% to 15%.11
Cap and trade
Tokyo’s cap-and-trade program has achieved 25% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of covered facilities after its5th year.12
DriverlessAutonomous electric cab in 2030 could emit up to 94% fewer emissions per mile than a conventional gasoline car.13
ResiliencyBristol (UK), New Orleans (US), Medellin (Colombia), and Melbourne (Australia) are among the cities that have appointed a Chief Resiliency Officer.14
Net zero energy — where the renewable energy generated by a building in a given year equals the total energy the building uses — has become a goal for many buildings around the world.
Net zero energy
The C40, a network of global mega-cities, is acting locally and collaboratively to reduce GhG emissions.
C40
The upside is cities become "smarter" ... the promise of 10 billion thingsNumber of smart city IoT units
Smart cities market
size 2014
Smart cities market
size 2020CAGR
1B 10B9x
Cities will become “smarter” when they leverage data from ICT systems, sensors, devices and other connected assets to improve decision-making across multiple urban challenges related to the physical and social infrastructure.15
US$300b–US$500b 14 – 20+% US$700b–
$US1500b
Cities debated whether they need their own foreign policies at the 2105 Chicago Forum on Global Cities.
The first Global Parliament of Mayors will meet in the Hague in September 2016.
Many governments face fiscalpressure …
… making it difficult to fund infrastructure and other cityprojects
2008 2015
79.9 111.2
OECD countriesGovernment debt-to-GDP16
Private sector participation is essential…
Some benefits of infrastructure PPPs
Private sector financing
Greater budgetary certainty
Long-term value-for-money through appropriate risk
transfer to the private sector over the life of projects
Private sector innovation and technology
Shenzhen
GuangzhouHong Kong
120MHong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou
185 countries are smaller 173 countries are smaller 160 countries are smaller
TokyoKyoto
Kobe Osaka
60MTokyo-Osaka-Kyoto-Kobe
Sao Paulo
Rio de Janeiro
40MSao Paulo-Rio de Janeiro
2014–2030
$
of global GDP
48%2015
Social infrastructureAdministration and governance
ICT
Equipment
Communications
Education
Health care
Conn
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Inno
vatio
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econ
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dev
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Physicalinfrastructure
Builtenvironment
BuildingsPublic spaces
Power and utilities
Energy
Water
Waste
TransportTicketing
Mobility
Smart city infrastructure
or
1. World Urbanization Prospects, United Nations, 2014, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2014-Report.pdf.
2. State of the World’s Cities 2010/2011, UN Habitat, 2010, http://unhabitat.org/books/state-of-the-worlds-cities-20102011-cities-for-all-bridging-the-urban-divide/.
3. World Urbanization Prospects, United Nations, 2014, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2014-Report.pdf.
4. B20 Infrastructure & Investment Taskforce Policy Summary, B20 Australia, July 2014, http://www.b20australia.info/Documents/B20%20Infrastructure%20and%20Investment%20Taskforce%20Report.pdf.
5. “China is Still Building Ghost Cities,” The Diplomat, 19 October 2015; http://thediplomat.com/2015/10/china-is-still-building-ghost-cities/.
6. Infrastructure 2014: Shaping the Competitive City, EY and Urban Land Institute, 2014; http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY_-_Infrastructure_2014:_shaping_the_competitive_city/$FILE/EY-infrastructure-2014-shaping-the-competitive-city.pdf.
7. Sustainable Development Challenges: World Economic and Social Survey 2013, United Nations, 2013; http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wess/wess_current/wess2013/WESS2013.pdf.
8. Why Cities: Ending Climate Change Begins in the City, C40 Cities, 2016, http://www.c40.org/ending-climate-change-begins-in-the-city.
9. Lloyd’s City Risk Index 2015–2025, Lloyd’s, 2015, http://www.lloyds.com/cityriskindex/.
10. Cities for People: Insights from the Data, Energy Innovation, April 2015, http://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/C4P-Insights-from-the-Data.pdf.
11. The Route To Carbon And Energy Savings: Transit Efficiency In 2030 And 2050 — Final Report, Center for Neighborhood Technology, Chicago, November 2010; https://www.transit.dot.gov/regulations-and-guidance/environmental-programs/route-carbon-and-energy-savings-transit-efficiency.
12. “Tokyo Cap-and-Trade program slashed GHG emissions by 25% after 5th year,” ICLEI, 3 January 2016, http://www.iclei.org/details/article/tokyo-cap-and-trade-program-slashed-ghg-emissions-by-25-in-five-years.html.
13. “Electric 'robocabs' would reduce US greenhouse emissions by 94% — study,” The Guardian, 6 July 2015; http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/06/electric-robocabs-reduce-us-greenhouse-emissions-94-percent-study.
14. “2nd Annual Chief Resilience Officer Summit Begins November 9 in Mexico City,” 100 Resilient Cities, 6 November 2015; http://www.100resilientcities.org/blog/entry/2nd-annual-chief-resilience-officer-summit-begins-november-9-in-mexico-city#/-_/.
15. “Gartner Says Smart Cities Will Use 1.1 Billion Connected Things in 2015,” Press Release, 18 March 2015; http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3008917.
16. “Percentage of Public Debt in GDP Around the World,” Global Finance, 6 May 2016; https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/economic-data/public-debt-percentage-gdp?page=2.
67% 33%
2.5 billionurban dwellers added
50% 50% 33% 67%
1950 2008 2050
of global population
19%300largest cities
1970
Megacities3
1970 2014 2030
02 23 41
Mid-sized cities
1970 2014 2030
294 417 558
Large cities
1970 2014 2030
21 43 63